Scenario analysis for assessing the impact of hydraulic fracturing on stream low flows using the SWAT model     

Aashish Shrestha  Colleen E. McLean  Bryan A. Kelly  Scott C. Martin 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(5):849-861

Scientists and water users are concerned about the potential impact on water resources, particularly during low-flow periods, of freshwater withdrawals for hydraulic fracturing (fracking). Therefore, the objective of this paper is to assess the potential impact of hydraulic fracturing on water resources in the Muskingum watershed of Eastern Ohio, USA, especially due to the trend of increased withdrawals for hydraulic fracking during drought years. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to generate 30 years of plausible future daily weather series in order to capture the possible dry periods. The data generated were incorporated in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to examine the level of impact due to fracking at various scales. Analyses showed that water withdrawal due to hydraulic fracking had a noticeable impact, especially during low-flow periods. Clear changes in the 7-day minimum flows were detected among baseline, current and future scenarios when the worst-case scenario was implemented. The headwater streams in the sub-watersheds were highly affected, with significant decrease in 7-day low flows. The flow alteration in hydrologically-based (7Q10, i.e. 7-day 10-year low flow) or biologically-based (4B3 and 1B3) design flows due to hydraulic fracking increased with decrease in the drainage area, indicating that the relative impact may not be as great for higher order streams. Nevertheless, change in the annual mean flow was limited to 10%.  相似文献   

Identifying threshold storm events and quantifying potential impacts of climate change on sediment yield in a small upland agricultural watershed of Ontario     

Narayan Kumar Shrestha  Nabil Allataifeh  Ramesh Rudra  Prasad Daggupati  Pradeep K. Goel  Trevor Dickinson 《水文研究》2019,33(6):920-931

Agricultural zones are significant sediment sources, but it is crucial to identify critical source areas (CSAs) of sediment yield within these zones where best management practices (BMPs) can be applied to the best effect in reducing sediment delivery to receiving water bodies rather than the economically nonviable alternative of randomly or sweepingly implementing BMPs. A storm event of a specific magnitude and hyetograph profile may, at different times, generate a greater or lesser sediment yield. The widely used agricultural nonpoint source (AGNPS) model was used to identify CSAs for sediment losses in Southwestern Ontario's agriculture‐dominated 374‐ha Holtby watershed. A storm threshold approach was adopted to identify critical periods for higher sediment losses. An AGNPS model for the Holtby watershed was set up, calibrated, and validated for run‐off volume, peak flow rate, and sediment yield for several storms. The calibrated and validated model was run for storms of increasing return periods to identify threshold storm events that would generate sediment yield greater than an acceptable value for early and late spring, summer, and fall seasons. Finally, to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change, we shifted shorter duration summer storms into spring conditions and quantified the changes in sediment yield dynamics. A 6‐hr, 7.5‐year early spring storm would generate sediment losses exceeding the acceptable limit of 0.34 t ha^?1 for the season. However, summer storms (2 hr, up to 100 years) tended to generate sediment yields below those of an identifiable threshold storm. If such shorter duration summer storms occurred in spring, the sediment yield would increase by more than fivefold. A 5‐year future storm would generate an equivalent effect of a 100‐year current spring event. The high sediment delivery to be expected will have significant implications regarding the future management of water quality of receiving waters. Appropriate placement of BMPs at CSAs will thus be needed to reduce such high sediment delivery to receiving waters.  相似文献   

Stakeholder perspectives on use, trade, and conservation of medicinal plants in the Rasuwa district of central Nepal     

Yadav UPRETY  Ram C.POUDEL  Hugo ASSELIN  Emmanuel K.BOON  Krishna K.SHRESTHA 《山地科学学报》2011,8(1):75-86

People’s livelihood in several Himalayan regions largely depends on collection, use, and trade of medicinal plants. Traditional use is generally not a problem, but commercial gathering of selected species to meet increasing national and international demand can result in over-exploitation. Sustainable management of medicinal plants requires a clear understanding of the respective roles, responsibilities and viewpoints of the various stakeholders involved. Through personal interviews and group discussions, this study aimed at investigating the views of two stakeholder groups on use, trade and conservation of medicinal plants in the Rasuwa district of Nepal. Local people and district and national organizations agreed that medicinal plants are collected for a combination of commercial and personal uses. Perceptions on market availability differed significantly: 100 % of the respondents from district and national organizations saw markets as easily available, against only 36 % for local people. This could explain why medicinal plants were perceived by local people to contribute less to income generation than to livelihood improvement. Different viewpoints were also expressed concerning the status of medicinal plants in the district: 81 % of the respondents from district and national organizations considered that medicinal plants were threatened, compared to only 28 % for local people. Despite this disparity, both stakeholder groups agreed upon potential threats to medicinal plants: over-harvesting; habitat loss due to land-use change and deforestation; and over-grazing by livestock. Several challenges were identified regarding sustainable management of medicinal plants, such as ambiguous policies; lack of resources, information and infrastructures; habitat degradation; and over-exploitation. Despite these challenges, respondents agreed that the medicinal plants sector offers huge opportunities in the Rasuwa district, given resource availability, community awareness and motivation, and the priority given to the sector by governments and other agencies. Proper collaboration, communication and coordination among stakeholders are needed to grab these opportunities.  相似文献   

Monte Carlo Simulation and Effective Medium Approximation in Subsurface Flow Modeling     

S. P. Shrestha  G. V. Loganathan 《Ground water》1994,32(6):929-936

  相似文献   

Hazard assessment of the formation and failure of the Sunkoshi landslide dam in Nepal     

Badri Bhakta Shrestha  Hajime Nakagawa 《Natural Hazards》2016,82(3):2029-2049

  相似文献   

Is the Western Himalayan region vulnerable with respect to downscaled precipitation?     

Meher  Jitendra Kumar  Das  Lalu 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,149(1-2):233-252

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Statistical downscaling is the technique of linking large-scale predictors and local-scale predictands through a relationship that is assumed to be helpful to...  相似文献   

Seismic wave propagation analysis in vertical arrays at Kashiwazaki–Kariwa nuclear power plant site by using modified normalized input–output minimization (mod‐NIOM) method     

Santa Man Shrestha  Hideji Kawakami 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2011,35(7):787-806

A new approach on numerical modeling of wave propagation is introduced and is used to analyze the effect of earthquake magnitudes (ground motion amplitudes) on wave propagation. In this method, the sum of the maximum amplitudes of the first output model at time 0 s and rest of the output models at different times are normalized to unity. Considering this as a constraint, the sum of the weighted‐squared Fourier amplitudes is minimized by using the Lagrange multiplier method. The proposed method can reveal the relationship of actual time histories by showing simple clear peaks. This method is used to analyze the time histories of various earthquake events at different vertical array sites of the Kashiwazaki–Kariwa nuclear power plant of Tokyo electric power company (TEPCO). The wave arrival times obtained from this method and down‐hole measurements are compared. The results show increase in the arrival times at surface layer when the magnitude of earthquake is large. The results reveal that the amplitudes of small magnitude earthquakes at depths are small and are largely amplified at surface, whereas in case of large magnitude earthquakes, the amplitudes are large at depths and are deamplified at surface reflecting the effects of the strain‐dependent soil properties that result in non‐linear site response to strong shaking. The results also show that the reflected peak amplitudes are higher for small magnitude earthquakes than for large magnitude earthquakes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Identification and analysis of airborne laser swath mapping data in a novel feature space     

Luzum  B.J. Slatton  K.C. Shrestha  R.L. 《Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, IEEE》2004,1(4):268-271

Several novel features are examined to determine their effectiveness in separating buildings from trees in airborne laser swath mapping (ALSM) data. New one- and two-dimensional distance measures are created to quantify the separability of the classes using the different features. Several features involving the intensity of the laser returns were found to be highly effective at separating the classes. The new distance measure provides insight into what makes a good/bad feature when discriminating between classes. It also lays the groundwork for future classification of ALSM data by providing a systematic method of ranking features to be used for classification.  相似文献   

Variations of Surface Air Temperature Over the Land Areas in and Around the Bay of Bengal     

Dewan Abdul Quadir  Madan L. Shrestha  Tariq Masood Ali Khan  Nazlee Ferdousi  Mizanur Rahman  Abdul Mannan 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(2):561-584

The inter-annual variation and linear trends of the surface air temperature in the regions in and around the Bay of Bengal have been studied using the time series data of monthly and annual mean temperature for 20–40 years period within 1951–1990. The study area extends from Pusma Camp of Nepal in the north and Kuala Lumpur of Malaysia in the south and between 80--100 ° E. The annual variation of temperature has also been studied using the mean monthly temperature for the variable time frames 1961–1975, 1976–1990 and 1961–1990. The trend of temperature has been analyzed using linear regression technique with the data from 1961–1990, which showed that the warming trend is dominant over the study areas except for a few stations. It has been found that Nepal shows predominant warming trends. Bangladesh and the adjacent areas of India and the northern part of Bay of Bengal adjacent to the Bangladesh coast have shown strong warming trends of the annual temperature with maximum at Dhaka (0.037 °C/year). The near equatorial zone, i.e., southern India, Sri Lanka and part of Thailand and Malaysia (Kuala Lumpur) shows warming trends in the annual mean temperature with strong warming at Pamban and Anuradhapura (around 0.04 °C/year). The cooling trends have been observed at a few stations including Port Blair, Yangoon and Cuttack. Further analysis shows the presence of prominent ENSO scale of variations with time period 4–7 years and 2–3 years for almost all the stations. The decadal mode with T >7 years is present in some data series. The results of the variations of temperature with respect to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) show that SOI has some negative correlation with temperature for most of the stations except those in the extreme northeast. It has been found that positive anomaly of temperature has been observed for El Niño events and negative anomaly for the La Nina events.  相似文献   

Application of artificial neural networks in regional flood frequency analysis: a case study for Australia   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  

K. Aziz  A. Rahman  G. Fang  S. Shrestha 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(3):541-554

Regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) is widely used in practice to estimate flood quantiles in ungauged catchments. Most commonly adopted RFFA methods such as quantile regression technique (QRT) assume a log-linear relationship between the dependent and a set of predictor variables. As non-linear models and universal approximators, artificial neural networks (ANN) have been widely adopted in rainfall runoff modeling and hydrologic forecasting, but there have been relatively few studies involving the application of ANN to RFFA for estimating flood quantiles in ungauged catchments. This paper thus focuses on the development and testing of an ANN-based RFFA model using an extensive Australian database consisting of 452 gauged catchments. Based on an independent testing, it has been found that ANN-based RFFA model with only two predictor variables can provide flood quantile estimates that are more accurate than the traditional QRT. Seven different regions have been compared with the ANN-based RFFA model and it has been shown that when the data from all the eastern Australian states are combined together to form a single region, the ANN presents the best performing RFFA model. This indicates that a relatively larger dataset is better suited for successful training and testing of the ANN-based RFFA models.  相似文献