极值理论在台湾地区地震趋势预测中的应用     

张有明  陈珊桦  罗开奇  尤宇星  黄圣棕  谢文杰  吴声伟 《华南地震》2013,(1):55-64

利用陈培善等人对极值理论修改后的极值分布函数模型对1971-01～2012-06台湾地区的地震资料进行统计分析。根据地震活动和地震地质构造特征划分区域、确定边界,单位时间的选取由其地震发生的频度和能量来确定,单位时间内最小与最大地震的确定分别考虑相关区域内台网的监控能力以及删除余震后的实际情况,根据修正后的极值理论统计计算出相应地震的复发周期及在未来一定时间内可能发生相应地震的次数与发震概率,并对有关结果进行模型检验和映震能力分析,同时与利用M-T图及震级与G-R关系获取的M≥7.0级地震的复发周期进行比较。  相似文献   

Modeling the sediment yield from landslides in the Shihmen Reservoir watershed,Taiwan     

Zong‐Xian Tsai  Gene J.‐Y. You  Hong‐Yuan Lee  Yu‐Jia Chiu 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2013,38(7):661-674

Landslides generate enormous volumes of sediment in mountainous watersheds; however, quantifying the downstream transport of landslide‐derived sediment remains a challenge. Landslide erosion and sediment delivery to the Shihmen Reservoir watershed in Taiwan was estimated using empirical landslide frequency–area and volume–area relationships, empirical landslide runout models, and the Hydrological Simulation Program‐ FORTRAN (HSPF). Landslide erosion rates ranged from 0.4 mm yr^‐1 to 2.2 mm yr^‐1 during the period 1986–2003, but increased to 7.9 mm yr^‐1 following Typhoon Aere in 2004. The percentage of landslide sediment delivered to streams decreased from 78% during the period 1986–1997 to 55% in 2004. Although the delivery ratio was lower, the volume of landslide sediment delivered to streams was 2.81 × 10⁶ Mg yr^‐1 in 1986–1997 and 8.60 × 10⁶ Mg yr^‐1 in 2004. Model simulations indicate that only a small proportion of the landslide material was delivered downstream. An average of 13% of the landslide material delivered to rivers was moved downstream during the period 1986–1997. In 2004, the period including Typhoon Aere, the annual fluvial sediment yield accounted for approximately 23% of the landslide material delivered to streams. In general, the transfer of sediment in the fluvial system in the Shihmen Reservoir watershed is dominantly transport limited. The imbalance between sediment supply and transport capacity has resulted in a considerable quantity of landslide material remaining in the upper‐stream regions of the watershed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

我国主要农耕区水稻土有机碳含量分布及影响因素研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

余涛  杨忠芳  侯青叶  夏学齐  宗思锋  李彪 《地学前缘》2011,18(6):11-19

水稻土是我国主要的耕作土壤之一,水稻土有机碳变化与全球气候变化息息相关,因此研究我国主要农耕区水稻土有机碳含量分布特征及影响因素具有重要的现实意义。本文基于全国多目标地球化学调查1：250000土壤数据库,以行政区划分析了水稻土有机碳分布规律,从土壤pH值、年均气温、年均降雨量、耕作方式等角度探讨了其对水稻土有机碳含量...  相似文献   

扬子克拉通西缘1.73Ga非造山型花岗斑岩的发现及其地质意义   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王子正  郭阳  杨斌  王生伟  孙晓明  侯林  周邦国  廖震文 《地质学报》2013,87(7):931-942

首次发现扬子克拉通西缘古元古代晚期海孜斜长花岗斑岩岩体.本文报道了其锆石的LA-ICP-MS U-Pb年龄,为1730±15Ma(MSWD=4.0,n=15).岩石具有高SiO2(69.77％～73.83％)、高碱(ALK=5.46～6.65)、低钾(K2O/Na2O=0.02～0.14)含量.里特曼指数1.04～1.65,A/CNK值为1.11～1.25,平均值为1.18(＞1.1),10000 Ga/Al=3.96～7.34(均值为5.18＞2.6),较高的含铁指数[FeO/(FeO+MgO) =0.95～0.99],总体显示了低钾钙碱性过铝质(SP)铁质A型花岗岩的特点.岩石富集Nb、Ta、Zr和Hf等高场强元素,强烈亏损K、Sr和Ba等大离子亲石元素,稀土元素总量∑REE=390.70×10-6～674.91×10-6,LREE/HREE=1.74～3.29(均值2.18),轻稀土分异作用明显,相对富集,表现出强烈的负Eu异常.地球化学特征显示,海孜花岗斑岩岩体为形成于板内伸展构造环境,可能与同期基性岩浆活动的底侵作用相关.海孜花岗岩的年龄和地球化学表明,扬子克拉通西缘存在古元古代晚期与全球性Columbia超级大陆裂解同期的双峰式岩浆岩组合.  相似文献   

Landslide susceptibility mapping using LiDAR and DMC data: a case study in the Three Gorges area, China   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Weitao Chen  Xianju Li  Yanxin Wang  Shengwei Liu 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(2):673-685

The objective of this study is to map landslide susceptibility in Zigui segment of the Yangtze Three Gorges area that is known as one of the most landslide-prone areas in China by using data from light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and digital mapping camera (DMC). The likelihood ratio (LR) and logistic regression model (LRM) were used in this study. The work is divided into three phases. The first phase consists of data processing and analysis. In this phase, LiDAR and DMC data and geological maps were processed, and the landslide-controlling factors were derived such as landslide density, digital elevation model (DEM), slope angle, aspect, lithology, land use and distance from drainage. Among these, the landslide inventories, land use and drainage were constructed with both LiDAR and DMC data; DEM, slope angle and aspect were constructed with LiDAR data; lithology was taken from the 1:250,000 scale geological maps. The second phase is the logistic regression analysis. In this phase, the LR was applied to find the correlation between the landslide locations and the landslide-controlling factors, whereas the LRM was used to predict the occurrence of landslides based on six factors. To calculate the coefficients of LRM, 13,290,553 pixels was used, 29.5 % of the total pixels. The logical regression coefficients of landslide-controlling factors were obtained by logical regression analysis with SPSS 17.0 software. The accuracy of the LRM was 88.8 % on the whole. The third phase is landslide susceptibility mapping and verification. The mapping result was verified using the landslide location data, and 64.4 % landslide pixels distributed in “extremely high” zone and “high” zone; in addition, verification was performed using a success rate curve. The verification result show clearly that landslide susceptibility zones were in close agreement with actual landslide areas in the field. It is also shown that the factors that were applied in this study are appropriate; lithology, elevation and distance from drainage are primary factors for the landslide susceptibility mapping in the area, while slope angle, aspect and land use are secondary.  相似文献   

新型复合胶无粘土冲洗液研究及应用     

吴飞  陈礼仪  朱宗培  费立  吴丽 《煤田地质与勘探》2003,31(5):57-59

针对松散覆盖层、强风化破碎层取心率低,岩心松散破碎,孔壁稳定性差等问题,进行了以天然植物胶为主原料的处理剂复配改性研究和冲洗液优化配方研究。主要研究方法是通过有机聚合物和无机交联剂的作用,对羟丙基瓜尔胶(GRJ)进行交联改性,以此获得新型复合胶无粘土冲洗液优化配方,并进行了现场应用。应用效果表明,该冲洗液密度低,粘度可调范围大,流变性和润滑性好,成膜护心、护壁作用强,完全满足第四系覆盖层、胶结差的砂卵石层和强风化破碎地层取心钻进要求。   相似文献   

格尔木台地磁GM3仪与FHDZ—M15仪观测数据对比分析     

李延峰  谢庆和  朱胜伟 《高原地震》2009,21(4):32-36

通过对2008年格尔木地震台2套仪器记录的磁场变化进行对比分析,分别从GM3仪器三分量（磁偏角D、地磁场水平强度H、垂直强度Z）与FHDZ—M15三分量（D、H、Z）记录的全年整点值、日均值及月均值进行对比分析,阐述了其运行特点,找到2套仪器的一致性与差异性。  相似文献   

柴达木盆地干柴沟地区油气成藏条件及其勘探意义   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

付国民  谢宗奎 《甘肃地质》2000,9(1):66-73

干柴沟地区烃源岩发育良好 ,具有较为有利的油气储、盖层 ,特别是在其东南部和南北向古构造带中油气勘探前景良好 ,但构造圈闭和有利的岩相带的相匹配 ,才是形成干柴沟地区油气藏的关键  相似文献   

初始应力各向异性土的弹塑性模型   总被引：17，自引：8，他引：9  

孙德安  姚仰平  殷宗泽 《岩土力学》2000,21(3):222-226

剑桥模型沿球应力轴(p 轴)等向塑性体变硬化; 在日本广泛采用的关口 — 太田模型沿初始固结线( K0 线)不等向塑性体变硬化。三轴试验数据表明: 自 K0 状态向伸长方向剪切时, 前者方法计算的体积应变偏小, 而后者方法计算的体积应变偏大。 作者提出一种介于上述两者之间 、考虑初始应力各向异性(如 K0 固结)的不等向塑性体变硬化弹塑性模型。 为了使模型在三维应力下较好地反映土的强度和变形特性, 模型的剪切屈服准则使用 SMP 准则。模型的土性参数与剑桥模型一样, 其预测值与粘土实测值的比较表明, 提出的模型是简单合理的, 可望在实际工程计算中得到使用。  相似文献   

一个用于面板坝流变分析的堆石流变模型   总被引：21，自引：6，他引：15  

王勇  殷宗泽 《岩土力学》2000,21(3):227-230

在前人工作的基础上, 从宏观上建立了一个用于面板坝流变分析的堆石流变模型: 堆石的瞬时弹塑性变形由椭圆-抛物双屈服面模型确定,并计入时间效应, 由双曲线函数经验公式计算堆石与时间有关的粘塑性变形。通过现场实测结果的反分析验证了模型的可靠性。  相似文献