Study on runoff simulation of the upstream of Minjiang River under future climate change scenarios     

Shifeng Huang  Wenbin Zang  Mei Xu  Xiaotao Li  Xuecheng Xie  Zhongmin Li  Jisheng Zhu 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(2):139-154

Climate change is one of the main factors that affect runoff changes. In the upstream of Minjiang River, the temperature increased significantly in the last 50 years, while the precipitation decreased on the contrary. In order to analyze the effect of climate change on site runoff, watershed runoff depth and evaporation, nine climate scenarios are assumed based on rainfall and temperature indicators. A SWAT model of Minjiang River is constructed, and runoff simulation is carried out with the nine scenarios. The results show that if precipitation increases or decreases 20 %, the change rate of runoff depth will increase or decrease 28–32 %; if temperature increases or decreases 2 °C, the change rate of runoff depth will decrease or increase 1–6 %; if temperature increases or decreases 2 °C, the change rate of the potential evaporation will increase or decrease 5–16 %, and the actual evaporation rate of variation will increase or decrease 1–6 %. Overall, precipitation variation has greater effect on simulated runoff than temperature variation dose. In addition, temperature variation has more obvious effect on the runoff simulation results in dry years than in wet years. The actual evaporation of watershed depends on evaporation capacity and precipitation and increases with the increasing of the potential evaporation and precipitation. The study also shows that the climate change scenarios analysis technology, combined with SWAT hydrological model, can effectively simulate the effect of climate change on runoff.  相似文献   

The variabilities of convective precipitation and large-scale precipitation in southern China for the period 1980–2020     

Zhang  Han  Zhao  Junhu  Huang  Bicheng  Zang  Naihui  Yang  Jie  Feng  Guolin 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,148(3-4):1529-1543

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In this paper, the spatial and temporal characteristics of convective precipitation (CP) and large-scale precipitation (LSP) in southern China during...  相似文献   

不规则邻域CA的城市增长边界研究——以大连市经济技术开发区为例     

刘伟玲  张育庆  杨俊 《测绘通报》2018,(8):93-96

本文以2003—2012年的土地利用数据、遥感数据等多源数据为基础,并且以街道作为研究尺度,通过不规则邻域CA和生态适宜性评价方法,制定城市扩张的弹性边界和刚性边界。研究表明:(1)基于不规则邻域CA模型的Kappa系数为0.875 8,模拟精度达到要求;(2)2021年研究区弹性边界的面积为230.54 km~2,刚性边界的面积为260.09 km~2,面积变化显著;(3)建设用地呈由东南向西北的扩张趋势,并且沿海街道比内陆街道扩张更为显著。  相似文献   

HCW-90型平台钻具输运装置起升机构系统效率分析     

钟蔚岭  王清岩  李昊轩 《地质论评》2023,69(Z1):578-580

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万福矿深埋大断面T型交叉点高预应力NPR支护机制及应用     

孙晓明  齐振敏  缪澄宇  臧金诚  高祥  赵成伟  张勇 《岩土力学》2023,(4):1130-1141

为解决深部大断面软岩巷道交叉点大变形问题,以万福煤矿千米深井巷道交叉点为工程实例,首次在巷道支护中运用微观负泊松比（negative Poisson’s ration,NPR）钢锚索。采用室内试验、理论分析、数值模拟及现场试验相结合的方法,分析了深埋巷道交叉点的围岩变形机制,提出了以微观NPR钢锚索为核心的控制对策。通过室内静力拉伸试验对微观NPR钢锚索的力学特性进行研究,结果表明,微观NPR钢锚索拉伸全过程表现为高恒阻,均匀拉伸,无屈服平台,破断时无明显颈缩现象。通过理论推导,基于T型巷道交叉点围岩最大影响范围,建立微观NPR钢锚索支护T型巷道交叉口最大影响范围计算模型。通过数值模拟,再现T型巷道交叉口的破坏演化过程,分析对比普通支护/微观NPR钢锚索支护效果。现场开展支护应用试验与监测,验证了长短微观NPR钢锚索联合支护对策具有良好的交叉口围岩大变形控制效果,为交叉口围岩安全稳定控制提供了新支护材料和支护手段。  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地奥陶系马家沟组白云岩储层特征及成因机制     

吴东旭  李昌  周进高  胡琮  黄正良  于洲  李维岭  郭玮 《高校地质学报》2022,28(4):606-616

鄂尔多斯盆地奥陶系白云岩是重要的天然气储集层,对其白云岩成因和储层发育规律的研究对于碳酸盐岩深层勘探理论的发展具有重要意义。文章基于大量岩心、薄片的观察,并结合稳定碳氧同位素、稀土元素、白云岩有序度、地层水、包裹体特征等地球化学分析,对盆地奥陶系存在的两种典型白云岩储层的发育特征和形成机理进行了详细研究。分析表明,含硬石膏结核或柱状晶的泥粉晶白云岩主要为潮坪蒸发环境的萨布哈成因,其规模储层的发育主要受到长时不整合的控制,不整合面以下发育大量硬石膏结核和柱状晶溶模孔;颗粒滩白云岩主要为回流渗透成因,其储层孔隙的发育主要受到海平面高频升降的影响,发育多旋回的粒（晶）间孔隙型储层。虽然两种白云岩的白云石化流体都为浓缩海水,但由于白云石化的机制和速率不同,二者的原始孔隙类型和特征迥异。两种白云岩孔隙在后期的成岩改造和演变过程中,既有相同之处,又有明显的区别。这一认识也将对深层的白云岩储层勘探提供指导作用。  相似文献   

Statistical analysis of thunderstorms on the eastern Tibetan Plateau based on modified thunderstorm indices   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Wei You  Zengliang Zang  Xiaobin Pan  Lifeng Zhang  Yi Li 《大气科学进展》2015,32(4):515-527

The Tibetan Plateau, with an average altitude above 4000 m, is the highest and largest plateau in the world. The frequency of thunderstorms in this region is extremely high. Many indices are used in operational forecasting to assess the stability of the atmosphere and predict the probability of severe thunderstorm development. One of the disadvantages of many of these indices is that they are mainly based on observations from plains. However, considering the Plateau's high elevation, most convective parameters cannot be applied directly, or their application is ineffective. The pre-convective environment on thunderstorm days in this region is investigated based on sounding data obtained throughout a five-year period(2006–10).Thunderstorms occur over the Tibetan Plateau under conditions that differ strikingly from those in plains. On this basis,stability indices, such as the Showalter index(including SI and SICCL), and the K index are improved to better assess the thunderstorm environments on the Plateau. Verification parameters, such as the true-skill statistic(TSS) and Heidke skill score(HSS), are adopted to evaluate the optimal thresholds and relative forecast skill for each modified index. Lastly, the modified indices are verified with a two-year independent dataset(2011–12), showing satisfactory results for the modified indices. For determining whether or not a thunderstorm day is likely to occur, we recommend the modified SICCLindex.  相似文献   

Effects of temperature and dissolved oxygen content on oxygen consumption rate of Chinese prawn, giant tiger prawn and giant freshwater prawn     

戴习林  臧维玲  王为东  施永海  刘文翠  徐桂荣  李士华 《中国海洋湖沼学报》1999,17(2):119-124

INTRODUCnON-WatertemperatheanddissolvedoxygenareimportantenvironmentalfactorsinthegmwthanddevelOPmntofaqUaticorgAnsms.ThereareInanPublishedstUdiesontheox-.ygenconsUInPtionrate(OCR)oftheprawn')(WangJim,l986;WangDanghenetal-,199l;ZangWeilingetal-,l992,l993),buttheydidnotcontalndetailedinfonnaionabouttheeffectoftemPerabeontheOCR-ThePresentstudydetendnedtheOCRofju-venilesofChineseprawn,gianttiserprawnandgiantfreshwaterprawnthatwererearedatdifferenttemperatllresforaboutaweekattheCaoj…  相似文献   

A project of sustainable utilization of forest resources supported by GIS     

ZANG Shu-ying 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2000,10(2):188-192

lINThODUCnoNResourcesarethefoundationofeconomicdevel-opment,andsustainabledevelopmentistheinevitabletrendofhumandevelopment.Thesustainabedevel-opmentofChineseforestryisanimPOrtantPOrtionofChinesesustainabledevelopmentstrategy,andforestresourceisthekeyproblemofsustaialleforestryde-velopment.Therefore,exploringthereasonableforestresourcemanagementandutilizationprojecthasimpor-tantsignificancefortherealizationofsustainableforestrydevelopment-DaHingganMountainsforestdistrictisoneoftheimPOrt…  相似文献   

Earthquake Probability of the “Seismic Gap” on the Longmenshan Fault     

Song Jin  Jiang Haikun  Meng Lingyuan  Zang Yang 《中国地震研究》2018,32(1):15-27

Using the layered viscoelastic medium model, this paper calculated the coulomb stress loading effect on the Lushan epicenter generated by the Wenchuan earthquake. Then combined with the rate-state friction law proposed by Dieterich J. (1994), we obtain the probability of an M_W ≥ 6.0 earthquake occurring in the vicinity of Lushan. The results show that the probability of M_W ≥ 6.0 earthquake of the Lushan region in 2013 is up to 18%, indicating that the stress disturbance caused by the Wenchuan earthquake accelerated the Lushan earthquake. This paper also calculates the coulomb stress accumulation on the "seismic gap" generated by the two earthquakes of Wenchuan and Lushan, and combined with the background seismicity, gives the M_W>6.0 earthquake probability of the "seismic gap". Although there may be a certain error in the results because of the Dayi earthquake, selection of the medium model parameters and background seismicity, the seismic probability of the "seismic gap" is increasing. Thus, we think destructive earthquakes are still likely to occur in the "seismic gap".  相似文献