全文获取类型
收费全文 | 545篇 |
免费 | 338篇 |
国内免费 | 10篇 |
专业分类
测绘学 | 13篇 |
大气科学 | 64篇 |
地球物理 | 460篇 |
地质学 | 208篇 |
海洋学 | 24篇 |
天文学 | 88篇 |
综合类 | 18篇 |
自然地理 | 18篇 |
出版年
2023年 | 24篇 |
2022年 | 57篇 |
2021年 | 61篇 |
2020年 | 50篇 |
2019年 | 65篇 |
2018年 | 250篇 |
2017年 | 99篇 |
2016年 | 26篇 |
2015年 | 6篇 |
2014年 | 4篇 |
2013年 | 5篇 |
2011年 | 29篇 |
2010年 | 13篇 |
2009年 | 4篇 |
2008年 | 2篇 |
2007年 | 3篇 |
2006年 | 2篇 |
2005年 | 4篇 |
2004年 | 12篇 |
2003年 | 4篇 |
2002年 | 15篇 |
2001年 | 11篇 |
2000年 | 27篇 |
1999年 | 45篇 |
1998年 | 9篇 |
1997年 | 2篇 |
1996年 | 6篇 |
1995年 | 3篇 |
1994年 | 1篇 |
1993年 | 2篇 |
1992年 | 6篇 |
1991年 | 12篇 |
1990年 | 9篇 |
1989年 | 6篇 |
1988年 | 7篇 |
1985年 | 1篇 |
1976年 | 1篇 |
1971年 | 1篇 |
1970年 | 3篇 |
1969年 | 1篇 |
1968年 | 1篇 |
1966年 | 1篇 |
1965年 | 1篇 |
1964年 | 2篇 |
排序方式: 共有893条查询结果,搜索用时 31 毫秒
121.
122.
Vo?V.?Anh Philip?Broadbridge Andriy?Olenko Yu?Guang?WangEmail authorView authors OrcID profile 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(9):2585-2603
This paper gives the exact solution in terms of the Karhunen–Loève expansion to a fractional stochastic partial differential equation on the unit sphere \({\mathbb {S}}^{2} \subset {\mathbb {R}}^{3}\) with fractional Brownian motion as driving noise and with random initial condition given by a fractional stochastic Cauchy problem. A numerical approximation to the solution is given by truncating the Karhunen–Loève expansion. We show the convergence rates of the truncation errors in degree and the mean square approximation errors in time. Numerical examples using an isotropic Gaussian random field as initial condition and simulations of evolution of cosmic microwave background are given to illustrate the theoretical results. 相似文献
123.
Jason?PatskoskiEmail authorView authors OrcID profile A.?Sankarasubramanian 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(4):1065-1083
Reservoir sizing is one of the most important aspects of water resources engineering as the storage in a reservoir must be sufficient to supply water during extended droughts. Typically, observed streamflow is used to stochastically generate multiple realizations of streamflow to estimate the required storage based on the Sequent Peak Algorithm (SQP). The main limitation in this approach is that the parameters of the stochastic model are purely derived from the observed record (limited to less than 80 years of data) which does not have information related to prehistoric droughts. Further, reservoir sizing is typically estimated to meet future increase in water demand, and there is no guarantee that future streamflow over the planning period will be representative of past streamflow records. In this context, reconstructed streamflow records, usually estimated based on tree ring chronologies, provide better estimates of prehistoric droughts, and future streamflow records over the planning period could be obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) which provide 30 year near-term climate change projections. In this study, we developed paleo streamflow records and future streamflow records for 30 years are obtained by forcing the projected precipitation and temperature from the GCMs over a lumped watershed model. We propose combining observed, reconstructed and projected streamflows to generate synthetic streamflow records using a Bayesian framework that provides the posterior distribution of reservoir storage estimates. The performance of the Bayesian framework is compared to a traditional stochastic streamflow generation approach. Findings based on the split-sample validation show that the Bayesian approach yielded generated streamflow traces more representative of future streamflow conditions than the traditional stochastic approach thereby, reducing uncertainty on storage estimates corresponding to higher reliabilities. Potential strategies for improving future streamflow projections and its utility in reservoir sizing and capacity expansion projects are also discussed. 相似文献
124.
Francky?FouedjioEmail authorView authors OrcID profile 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(6):1699-1721
This paper introduces an extension of the traditional stationary linear coregionalization model to handle the lack of stationarity. Under the proposed model, coregionalization matrices are spatially dependent, and basic univariate spatial dependence structures are non-stationary. A parameter estimation procedure of the proposed non-stationary linear coregionalization model is developed under the local stationarity framework. The proposed estimation procedure is based on the method of moments and involves a matrix-valued local stationary variogram kernel estimator, a weighted local least squares method in combination with a kernel smoothing technique. Local parameter estimates are knitted together for prediction and simulation purposes. The proposed non-stationary multivariate spatial modeling approach is illustrated using two real bivariate data examples. Prediction performance comparison is carried out with the classical stationary multivariate spatial modeling approach. According to several criteria, the prediction performance of the proposed non-stationary multivariate spatial modeling approach appears to be significantly better. 相似文献
125.
Panayiotis?DimitriadisEmail authorView authors OrcID profile Demetris?Koutsoyiannis 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(6):1493-1515
An extension of the symmetric-moving-average (SMA) scheme is presented for stochastic synthesis of a stationary process for approximating any dependence structure and marginal distribution. The extended SMA model can exactly preserve an arbitrary second-order structure as well as the high order moments of a process, thus enabling a better approximation of any type of dependence (through the second-order statistics) and marginal distribution function (through statistical moments), respectively. Interestingly, by explicitly preserving the coefficient of kurtosis, it can also simulate certain aspects of intermittency, often characterizing the geophysical processes. Several applications with alternative hypothetical marginal distributions, as well as with real world processes, such as precipitation, wind speed and grid-turbulence, highlight the scheme’s wide range of applicability in stochastic generation and Monte-Carlo analysis. Particular emphasis is given on turbulence, in an attempt to simulate in a simple way several of its characteristics regarded as puzzles. 相似文献
126.
Qi?Lu Ni-Bin?ChangEmail authorView authors OrcID profile Justin?Joyce 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(7):2025-2044
Numerous studies related to the simulation and prediction of urban growth to address land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have been conducted in recent years, but very few have considered the impact of climate change, flooding impact, government relocation, corridor cities, and long-term rainfall variations simultaneously. To bridge the gap, this study predicts possible future LULC changes for 2030 and 2050 in Beijing (China), since Beijing is one of the fastest-growing megacities in the world. The proposed integrated modeling analysis covers four key scenarios to reflect the influences of different factors and constraints on LULC changes, in which cellular automata, Markov chain, and multi-criteria evaluation are fully coupled. While fuzzy membership function was used to address the uncertainty associated with the decision analysis, Markov chain, which is regarded as a stochastic process, was applied to predict future urban growth pathways. In addition, a statistical downscaling model driven by possible climate change scenarios was employed to address long-term rainfall variations in Beijing, China. This study differs from previous ones for Beijing in terms of not only the effects of climate change and flooding impact but also the newly-developed economic free trade zone in Xiong’an and the central government’s plan to relocate to the Tongzhou district. Findings indicate that there is no marked difference in LULC over the four key scenarios. Compared to the baseline LULC in 2010, the predicted results indicate that urban expansion is expected to increase more than 6 and 11% in 2030 and 2050, respectively. 相似文献
127.
Sarai?DíazEmail authorView authors OrcID profile Roberto?Mínguez Javier?González 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(7):2111-2128
Leak detectability or leakage awareness refers to the capability of sensing losses from a water supply system. Several methods exist in the technical literature to tackle this problem, but only few address it with a state estimation approach. The aim of this paper is to present a new methodology that enables probabilistic assessment of the extent to which water loss could be detected using state estimation by only analysing a single hydraulic state, i.e. one time period. Significant leaks are sensed by identifying unusually high normalised state estimation residuals, which can be identified based on the largest normalised residual test. More specifically, the probability of detecting leaks is computed here by working with the multivariate distribution among measurements and estimates to take into account the noisy nature of measurements with an analytical approach rather than with sampling experiments, which are time-consuming. The methodology set out herein also provides a procedure to systematically assess the minimum leak that could be detected in different parts of the network for a specific measurement setting and operating condition. The method has been applied to a water transport network case study to show its potential and to highlight the usefulness of such a tool for practitioners. The limitations of such a methodology are also discussed, including its possible use for on-line leak detection strategies. 相似文献
128.
Ali?HamidiEmail authorView authors OrcID profile David?J.?Farnham Reza?Khanbilvardi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(8):2293-2308
The goal of this study is to investigate the uncertainty of an urban sewer system’s response under various rainfall and infrastructure scenarios by applying a recently developed nonparametric copula-based simulation approach to extreme rainfall fields. The approach allows for Monte Carlo simulation of multiple variables with differing marginal distributions and arbitrary dependence structure. The independent and identically distributed daily extreme rainfall events of the corresponding urban area, extracted from nationwide high resolution radar data stage IV, are the inputs of the spatial simulator. The simulated extreme rainfall fields were used to calculate excess runoff using the Natural Resources Conservation Service’s approach. New York City is selected as a case study and the results highlight the importance of preserving the spatial dependence of rainfall fields between the grids, even for simplified hydrologic models. This study estimates the probability of combined sewer overflows under extreme rainfall events and identifies the most effective locations in New York City to install green infrastructure for detaining excess stormwater runoff. The results of this study are beneficial for planners working on stormwater management and the approach is broadly applicable because it does not rely on extensive sewer system information. 相似文献
129.
目前天然橡胶支座(NRB)的性能研究大多未考虑尺寸效应,在前期开展的近海桥梁隔震支座和材料老化时变规律研究的基础上,同时考虑支座直径尺寸变化和老化作用时间的影响对NRB的性能进行研究。首先采用ABAQUS有限元软件对不同直径尺寸NRB的性能进行分析,得到了NRB性能随直径尺寸的变化规律;然后结合前期老化作用对NRB及其橡胶材料性能时变规律的影响研究成果,分析了直径尺寸及老化作用时间共同作用下,NRB性能的变化规律,并通过ABAQUS有限元分析,验证了该变化规律的准确性。结果表明:NRB的水平刚度和竖向刚度均随其直径尺寸的增大呈正比例增大趋势;NRB水平刚度比和竖向刚度比均随老化作用时间的增长呈线性增大趋势;且直径为150mm的NRB在实际环境老化60a后,其水平刚度和竖向刚度的增长幅度分别为:30.8%和16.41%,由此可见老化作用时间对NRB水平刚度的影响较显著,对其竖向刚度的影响较小。研究内容可为隔震桥梁结构中支座缩尺模型试验的相关设计提供参考,并为将实验室缩尺橡胶隔震支座的相关成果较好地应用于实际工程计算及设计中提供依据。 相似文献
130.