Application of physical scaling towards downscaling climate model precipitation data     

Abhishek?GaurEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Slobodan?P.?Simonovic 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,132(1-2):287-300

Physical scaling (SP) method downscales climate model data to local or regional scales taking into consideration physical characteristics of the area under analysis. In this study, multiple SP method based models are tested for their effectiveness towards downscaling North American regional reanalysis (NARR) daily precipitation data. Model performance is compared with two state-of-the-art downscaling methods: statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and generalized linear modeling (GLM). The downscaled precipitation is evaluated with reference to recorded precipitation at 57 gauging stations located within the study region. The spatial and temporal robustness of the downscaling methods is evaluated using seven precipitation based indices. Results indicate that SP method-based models perform best in downscaling precipitation followed by GLM, followed by the SDSM model. Best performing models are thereafter used to downscale future precipitations made by three global circulation models (GCMs) following two emission scenarios: representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 over the twenty-first century. The downscaled future precipitation projections indicate an increase in mean and maximum precipitation intensity as well as a decrease in the total number of dry days. Further an increase in the frequency of short (1-day), moderately long (2–4 day), and long (more than 5-day) precipitation events is projected.  相似文献   

Field significance of performance measures in the context of regional climate model evaluation. Part 1: temperature     

Martin?IvanovEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Kirsten?Warrach-Sagi  Volker?Wulfmeyer 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,132(1-2):219-237

A new approach for rigorous spatial analysis of the downscaling performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations is introduced. It is based on a multiple comparison of the local tests at the grid cells and is also known as “field” or “global” significance. New performance measures for estimating the added value of downscaled data relative to the large-scale forcing fields are developed. The methodology is exemplarily applied to a standard EURO-CORDEX hindcast simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the land surface model NOAH at 0.11 ^° grid resolution. Monthly temperature climatology for the 1990–2009 period is analysed for Germany for winter and summer in comparison with high-resolution gridded observations from the German Weather Service. The field significance test controls the proportion of falsely rejected local tests in a meaningful way and is robust to spatial dependence. Hence, the spatial patterns of the statistically significant local tests are also meaningful. We interpret them from a process-oriented perspective. In winter and in most regions in summer, the downscaled distributions are statistically indistinguishable from the observed ones. A systematic cold summer bias occurs in deep river valleys due to overestimated elevations, in coastal areas due probably to enhanced sea breeze circulation, and over large lakes due to the interpolation of water temperatures. Urban areas in concave topography forms have a warm summer bias due to the strong heat islands, not reflected in the observations. WRF-NOAH generates appropriate fine-scale features in the monthly temperature field over regions of complex topography, but over spatially homogeneous areas even small biases can lead to significant deteriorations relative to the driving reanalysis. As the added value of global climate model (GCM)-driven simulations cannot be smaller than this perfect-boundary estimate, this work demonstrates in a rigorous manner the clear additional value of dynamical downscaling over global climate simulations. The evaluation methodology has a broad spectrum of applicability as it is distribution-free, robust to spatial dependence, and accounts for time series structure.  相似文献   

Geometry of the hemispherical radiometric footprint over plant canopies     

B.?Marcolla  A.?CescattiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,134(3-4):981-990

Radiometric measurements of hemispherical surface reflectance and long-wave irradiance are required to quantify the broadband albedo and the outgoing thermal radiation. These observations are typically integrated with eddy covariance measurements of sensible and latent heat fluxes to characterize the surface energy budget. While the aerodynamic footprint has been widely investigated, the geometry of the hemispherical radiometric footprint over plant canopies has been rarely tackled. In the present work, the size and shape of the hemispherical radiometric footprint are formalized for a bare surface and in presence of a vegetation cover. For this purpose, four idealized canopies are analyzed and the dependency of the radiometric footprint on leaf area index and canopy height is explored. Besides, the radiometric footprint is compared with the aerodynamic footprint in conditions of neutral stability. It was observed that almost 100% of the hemispherical radiometric signal originates within a distance of a few radiometer heights, while only about 50–80% of the cumulative aerodynamic signal is generated within a distance of about 20 sensor heights. In order to achieve comparable extensions of the footprint areas, hemispherical radiometric measurements should therefore be taken about 6–15 times higher than turbulent flux ones, depending on the vegetation type. The analysis also highlights that the size of the radiative footprint decreases at increasing leaf area index, whereas the aerodynamic footprint shows an opposite behavior. For the abovementioned reasons, this work may support the interpretation of energy flux measurements and the optimal design of eddy covariance stations located in heterogeneous sites.  相似文献   

Quantifying deformation in North Borneo with GPS     

Mohamad?Asrul?MustafarEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Wim?J.?F.?Simons  Felix?Tongkul  Chalermchon?Satirapod  Kamaludin?Mohd?Omar  Pieter?N.?A.?M.?Visser 《Journal of Geodesy》2017,91(10):1241-1259

The existence of intra-plate deformation of the Sundaland platelet along its eastern edge in North Borneo, South-East Asia, makes it an interesting area that still is relatively understudied. In addition, the motion of the coastal area of North-West Borneo is directed toward a frontal fold-and-thrust belt and has been fueling a long debate on the possible geophysical sources behind it. At present this fold-and-thrust belt is not generating significant seismic activity and may also not be entirely active due to a decreasing shelfal extension from south to north. Two sets of Global Positioning System (GPS) data have been used in this study; the first covering a time period from 1999 until 2004 (ending just before the Giant Sumatra–Andaman earthquake) to determine the continuous Sundaland tectonic plate motion, and the second from 2009 until 2011 to investigate the current deformations of North Borneo. Both absolute and relative positioning methods were carried out to investigate horizontal and vertical displacements. Analysis of the GPS results indicates a clear trend of extension along coastal regions of Sarawak and Brunei in North Borneo. On the contrary strain rate tensors in Sabah reveal that only insignificant and inconsistent extension and compression occurs throughout North-West Borneo. Moreover, station velocities and rotation rate tensors on the northern part of North Borneo suggest a clockwise (micro-block) rotation. The first analysis of vertical displacements recorded by GPS in North-West Borneo points to low subsidence rates along the western coastal regions of Sabah and inconsistent trends between the Crocker and Trusmadi mountain ranges. These results have not been able to either confirm or reject the hypothesis that gravity sliding is the main driving force behind the local motions in North Borneo. The ongoing Sundaland–Philippine Sea plate convergence may also still play an active role in the present-day deformation (crustal shortening) in North Borneo and the possible clockwise rotation of the northern part of North Borneo as a micro-block. However, more observations need to be collected to determine if the northern part of North Borneo indeed is (slowly) moving independently.  相似文献   

Grid-based performance evaluation of GCM-RCM combinations for rainfall reproduction     

Ali?Danandeh MehrEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Ercan?Kahya 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(1-2):47-57

Prior to hydrological assessment of climate change at catchment scale, an applied methodology is necessary to evaluate the performance of climate models available for a given catchment. This study presents a grid-based performance evaluation approach as well as an intercomparison framework to evaluate the uncertainty of climate models for rainfall reproduction. For this purpose, we used outputs of two general circulation models (GCMs), namely ECHAM5 and CCSM3, downscaled by a regional climate model (RCM), namely RegCM3, over ten small to mid-size catchments in Rize Province, Turkey. To this end, five rainfall-borne climatic statistics are computed from the outputs of ECHAM5-RegCM3 and CCSM3-RegCM3 combinations in order to compare with those of observations in the province for the reference period 1961–1990. Performance of each combination is tested by means of scatter diagram, bias, mean absolute bias, root mean squared error, and model performance index (MPI) measures. Our results indicated that ECHAM5-RegCM3 overestimates the total monthly rainfall observations whereas CCSM3-RegCM3 tends to underestimate. In terms of maximum monthly and annual maximum rainfall reproduction, ECHAM5-RegCM3 shows higher performance than CCSM3-RegCM3, particularly in the coastland areas. In contrast, CCSM3-RegCM3 outperforms ECHAM5-RegCM3 in reproducing the number of rainy days, especially in the inland areas. The results also revealed that if a GCM-RCM combination performs well for a portion (statistic) of a catchment, it is not necessarily appropriate for the other portions (statistics). Moreover, the MPI measure demonstrated the superiority of ECHAM5-RegCM3 to CCSM3-RegCM3 up to 33 % excelling for annual rainfall reproduction in Rize Province.  相似文献   

A dataset of future daily weather data for crop modelling over Europe derived from climate change scenarios     

G.?DuveillerEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  M.?Donatelli  D.?Fumagalli  A.?Zucchini  R.?Nelson  B.?Baruth 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,127(3-4):573-585

Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) simulate different realizations of possible future climates at global scale under contrasting scenarios of land-use and greenhouse gas emissions. Such data require several additional processing steps before it can be used to drive impact models. Spatial downscaling, typically by regional climate models (RCM), and bias-correction are two such steps that have already been addressed for Europe. Yet, the errors in resulting daily meteorological variables may be too large for specific model applications. Crop simulation models are particularly sensitive to these inconsistencies and thus require further processing of GCM-RCM outputs. Moreover, crop models are often run in a stochastic manner by using various plausible weather time series (often generated using stochastic weather generators) to represent climate time scale for a period of interest (e.g. 2000 ± 15 years), while GCM simulations typically provide a single time series for a given emission scenario. To inform agricultural policy-making, data on near- and medium-term decadal time scale is mostly requested, e.g. 2020 or 2030. Taking a sample of multiple years from these unique time series to represent time horizons in the near future is particularly problematic because selecting overlapping years may lead to spurious trends, creating artefacts in the results of the impact model simulations. This paper presents a database of consolidated and coherent future daily weather data for Europe that addresses these problems. Input data consist of daily temperature and precipitation from three dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate simulations of the IPCC A1B emission scenario created within the ENSEMBLES project. Solar radiation is estimated from temperature based on an auto-calibration procedure. Wind speed and relative air humidity are collected from historical series. From these variables, reference evapotranspiration and vapour pressure deficit are estimated ensuring consistency within daily records. The weather generator ClimGen is then used to create 30 synthetic years of all variables to characterize the time horizons of 2000, 2020 and 2030, which can readily be used for crop modelling studies.  相似文献   

Characterization of carbon monoxide,methane and nonmethane hydrocarbons in emerging cities of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan and in Singapore     

Barbara?BarlettaEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Isobel?J.?Simpson  Nicola?J.?Blake  Simone?Meinardi  Louisa?K.?Emmons  Omar?S.?Aburizaiza  Azhar?Siddique  Jahan?Zeb  Liya?E.?Yu  Haider?A.?Khwaja  Muhammad?A.?Farrukh  Donald?R.?Blake 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2017,74(1):87-113

We investigate the composition of 63 C₂-C₁₀ nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), methane (CH₄) and carbon monoxide (CO), in Jeddah, Mecca, and Madina (Saudi Arabia), in Lahore, (Pakistan), and in Singapore. We established a database with which to compare and contrast NMHCs in regions where ambient levels and emissions are poorly characterized, but where conditions are favorable to the formation of tropospheric ozone, and where measurements are essential for improving emission inventories and modeling. This dataset will also serve as a base for further analysis of air pollution in Western Saudi Arabia including, but not limited to, the estimation of urban emissions and long range pollution transport from these regions. The measured species showed enhanced levels in all Saudi Arabian cities compared to the local background but were generally much lower than in Lahore. In Madina, vehicle exhaust was the dominant NMHC source, as indicated by enhanced levels of combustion products and by the good correlation between NMHCs and CO, while in Jeddah and Mecca a combination of sources needs to be considered. Very high NMHC levels were measured in Lahore, and elevated levels of CH₄ in Lahore were attributed to natural gas. When we compared our results with 2010 emissions from the MACCity global inventory, we found discrepancies in the relative contribution of NMHCs between the measurements and the inventory. In all cities, alkenes (especially ethene and propene) dominated the hydroxyl radical (OH) reactivity (k _OH) because of their great abundance and their relatively fast reaction rates with OH.  相似文献   

Mineral magnetic characteristics of podzolic soils developed on sand dunes in the Lake Gosciaz catchment, central Poland   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Per Sandgren

Roy Thompson 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1990,60(1-4):297-313

A number of samples from the A₀, A₂, B and C horizons have been collected from podzolic soils in the Lake Gosciaz catchment in central Poland. The catchment is very uniform consisting of 2–6-m-high sand dunes with sparse stands of pine and a grass undervegetation. Radiocarbon dates of fossil soils covered by dune sand, within the same type of environment as the Lake Gosciaz catchment, indicate that the main dune-forming phase is of Older Dryas age. Magnetic measurements have been carried out on bulk samples and on particle size fractions from the different soil horizons. With respect to our mineral magnetic study it can be concluded that the soils are very uniform over the entire catchment. Relatively high concentrations of magnetic grains are found in the humus layer, particularly in the <4 μm size fraction, as indicated by the highest X, X_fd, SIRM and HIRM values. The most likely mechanism for the magnetic enhancement in these podzolic top soils is continued burning processes. Low magnetic concentrations in the A₂ horizon are due to eluviation and chelation. Local conditions can lead to a range of magnetic minerals precipitating in the B horizon.  相似文献   

Ventilation revealed by the observation of dissolved oxygen concentration south of the Kuroshio Extension during 2012–2013     

Akira?NaganoEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Toshio?Suga  Yoshimi?Kawai  Masahide?Wakita  Kazuyuki?Uehara  Kyoko?Taniguchi 《Journal of Oceanography》2016,72(6):837-850

From the moored buoy observation at \(33.9^{\circ }\)N, \(144.9^{\circ }\)E south of the Kuroshio Extension (KE), we obtained Eulerian time series of dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) at 200, 400, and 600 m depths from June 2012 to March 2013. We observed ventilation by meso- and submesoscale processes that transport water southward across the KE jet. First, the cyclonic mesoscale eddy in June 2012 substantially depressed DO at depths of 400 and 600 m but maintained DO at 200 m, suggesting near-surface lateral transport of high-DO water derived from the north of the KE. Second, subduction of high-DO (>230 \({\upmu }\)mol kg\(^{-1}\)) water to a depth of 600 m was observed from early February to March 2013, associated with a mesoscale/submesoscale meandering of the KE jet. In mid-March 2013, shipboard hydrographic data were collected where the water mass at the mooring site would be advected by the eastward current on the southern flank of the KE. Based on these data, the subduction event was identified as an intrusion of an anomalously thick water mass from approximately 400–900 dbar. Ventilation of the subtropical mode water at a depth of 200 m around a subsurface DO maximum layer was detected as a rapid rise in DO in January 2013. This occurred after a significant seasonal decrease in DO at a rate of \(-0.130 \pm 0.007\) \({\upmu }\)mol kg\(^{-1}\) day\(^{-1}\) from July to December 2012.  相似文献   

Distribution,enrichment and sources of trace metals in the topsoil in the vicinity of a steel wire plant along the Silk Road economic belt,northwest China     

Peiyue?LiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Jianhua?Wu  Hui?Qian  Wanfang?Zhou 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(10):909

The West Development Program, initiated in 2000 by the central government of China, has attracted huge investments in the arid and semiarid regions of northwest China. As a consequence of this development, environmental pollution and ecological degradation have been widely reported. The Silk Road economic belt proposed by China promotes further economic development in the regions, but rational planning and regular monitoring are essential to minimize any additional negative impacts of the anthropogenic activities. This article reports an investigation on the distribution, enrichment and sources of trace metals in the topsoil in and around the Ningxia Hengli Steel Wire Plant (HSWP) situated along the Silk Road economic belt. The concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cr, Cu, Zn, Ni, Mn, V and Co in the surface soils of the study area vary, respectively, in the following ranges: 0.083–18.600, 21.9–2681.0, 58.0–100.0, 14.6–169.9, 59.0–4207.3, 19.3–40.8, 411–711, 55.2–76.6 and 7.46–25.21 mg/kg. The concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cr, Cu, Zn and Co are significantly higher than their local background values. Pollution levels of these trace metals in the surface soils were assessed using contamination index (C _f ⁱ ), geo-accumulation index (I _geo), modified contamination degree (mC _d) and pollution load index. The potential ecological risks caused by the metal pollution were assessed by means of potential ecological risk factor (E _f ⁱ ) and potential ecological risk index. The Spearman correlation and cluster analysis were applied to determine the contamination sources. The HSWP zone, associated with very high potential ecological risk caused by Pb and Cd, is more seriously contaminated by trace metals than the residential zone. This study indicates that Cd, Pb, Cu, Zn and Co mainly originate from industrial pollution, whereas Cr, Mn, Ni and V result from both industrial activities and natural processes.  相似文献