A high resolution hindcast of the meteorological sea level component for Southern Europe: the GOS dataset     

Alba Cid  Sonia Castanedo  Ana J. Abascal  Melisa Menéndez  Raúl Medina 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(7-8):2167-2184

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Erratum to: Forest fire danger projections in the Mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios     

J. Bedia  S. Herrera  A. Camia  J. M. Moreno  J. M. Gutiérrez 《Climatic change》2014,123(2):343-344

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Hybrid Model for Urban Air Pollution Forecasting: A Stochastic Spatio-Temporal Approach     

Ana Russo  Amílcar O. Soares 《Mathematical Geosciences》2014,46(1):75-93

Air pollution is usually driven by a complex combination of factors in which meteorology, physical obstacles, and interactions between pollutants play significant roles. Considering the characteristics of urban atmospheric pollution and its consequent impacts on human health and quality of life, forecasting models have emerged as an effective tool to identify and forecast air pollution episodes. The overall objective of the present work is to produce forecasts of pollutant concentrations with high spatio-temporal resolution and to quantify the uncertainty in those forecasts. Therefore, a new approach was developed based on a two-step methodology. Firstly, neural network models were used to generate short-term temporal forecasts based on air pollution and meteorology data. The accuracy of those forecasts was then evaluated against an independent set of historical data. Secondly, local conditional distributions of the observed values with respect to the predicted values were used to perform spatial stochastic simulations for the entire geographic area of interest. With this approach the spatio-temporal dispersion of a pollutant can be predicted, while accounting for both the temporal uncertainty in the forecast (reflecting the neural networks efficiency at each monitoring station) and the spatial uncertainty as revealed by the spatial variograms. Based on an analysis of the results, our proposed method offers a highly promising alternative for the characterization of urban air quality.  相似文献   

The state of the environment in Mexico     

Manuel Bollo Manent  José Ramón Hernández Santana  Ana Patricia Méndez Linares 《Central European Journal of Geosciences》2014,6(2):219-228

The present work evaluates the state of the environment in Mexico based on indicators of the present status of the country’s natural resource management, social and economical conditions and anthropogenic modifications. The Mexican environment is interpreted as a spatially open system having a historical character that is essentially determined by the continual interaction between nature, society and economy. The landscape approach is followed, considering as units of territorial analysis each one of the 145 biophysical environmental units included in the national physiographic regionalization. The assessment of 16 indicators for each biophysical environmental unit was made considering their regional environmental integrity problems, the degree of disarticulation of their structure and function, and the alteration of their territorial structure, all of which determine whether or not they accomplish their environmental functions and achieve environmental stability. The classification of the state of the environment included 5 categories in 8 combinations represented in the map of the state of the environment in Mexico for the year 2008. The map shows that nearly 47.10% of the country’s surface has an environmental status ranging between unstable and critical, the problematic areas being mostly concentrated in the southeast and center of the national territory.  相似文献   

Streamflow response to regional climate model output in the mountainous watershed: a case study from the Swiss Alps     

Kazi?RahmanEmail author  Christophe?Etienne  Ana?Gago-Silva  Chetan?Maringanti  Martin?Beniston  Anthony?Lehmann 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(11):4357-4369

Regional climate model (RCM) outputs are often used in hydrological modeling, in particular for streamflow forecasting. The heterogeneity of the meteorological variables such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and solar radiation often limits the ability of the hydrological model performance. This paper assessed the sensitivity of RCM outputs from the PRUDENCE project and their performance in reproducing the streamflow. The soil and water assessment tool was used to simulate the streamflow of the Rhone River watershed located in the southwestern part of Switzerland, with the climate variables obtained from four RCMs. We analyzed the difference in magnitude of precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature, and wind speed with respect to the observed values from the meteorological stations. In addition, we also focused on the impact of the grid resolution on model performance, by analyzing grids with resolutions of 50 × 50 and 25 × 25 km². The variability of the meteorological inputs from various RCMs is quite severe in the studied watershed. Among the four different RCMs, the Danish Meteorological Institute provided the best performance when simulating runoff. We found that temperature lapse rate is significantly important in the mountainous snow and glacier dominated watershed as compared to other variables like precipitation, and wind speed for hydrological performance. Therefore, emphasis should be given to minimum and maximum temperature in the bias correction studies for downscaling climatic data for impact modeling in the mountainous snow and glacier dominated complex watersheds.  相似文献   

A Middle Miocene carbonate embankment on an active volcanic slope: Ilhéu de Baixo,Madeira Archipelago,Eastern Atlantic     

B. Gudveig Baarli  Mrio Cacho  Carlos M. da Silva  Markes E. Johnson  Eduardo J. Mayoral  Ana Santos 《Geological Journal》2014,49(1):90-106

Carbonate factories on insular oceanic islands in active volcanic settings are poorly explored. This case study illuminates marginal limestone deposits on a steep volcanic flank and their recurring interruption by deposits linked to volcaniclastic processes. Historically known as Ilhéu da Cal (Lime Island), Ilhéu de Baixo was separated from Porto Santo, in the Madeira Archipelago, during the course of the Quaternary. Here, extensive mines were tunnelled in the Miocene carbonate strata for the production of slaked lime. Approximately 10 000 m³ of calcarenite (−1 to 1ø) was removed by hand labour from the Blandy Brothers mine at the south end of the islet. Investigations of two stratigraphic sections at opposite ends of the mine reveal that the quarried material represents an incipient carbonate ramp developed from east to west and embanked against the flank of a volcanic island. A petrographic analysis of limestones from the mine shows that coralline red algae from crushed rhodoliths account for 51% of all identifiable bioclasts. This material was transported shoreward and deposited on the ramp between normal wave base and storm wave base at moderate depths. The mine's roof rocks are formed by Surtseyan deposits from a subsequent volcanic eruption. Volcaniclastic density flows also are a prevalent factor interrupting renewed carbonate deposition. These flows arrived downslope from the north and gradually steepened the debris apron westwards. Slope instability is further shown by a coral rudstone density flow that followed from growth of a coral reef dominated by Pocillopora madreporacea (Lamarck), partial reef collapse, and transport from a more easterly direction into a fore‐reef setting. The uppermost facies represents a soft bottom at moderate depths in a quiet, but shore‐proximal setting. Application of this study to a broader understanding of the relationship between carbonate and volcaniclastic deposition on oceanic islands emphasizes the susceptibility of carbonates to dilution and complete removal by density flows of various kinds, in contrast to the potential for preservation beneath less‐disruptive Surtseyan deposits. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Multifrequency algorithms for precise point positioning: MAP3     

B. Moreno Monge  G. Rodríguez-Caderot  M. C. de Lacy 《GPS Solutions》2014,18(3):355-364

We present the new MAP3 algorithms to perform static precise point positioning (PPP) from multifrequency and multisystem GNSS observations. MAP3 represents a two-step strategy in which the least squares theory is applied twice to estimate smoothed pseudo-distances, initial phase ambiguities, and slant ionospheric delay first, and the absolute receiver position and its clock offset in a second adjustment. Unlike the classic PPP technique, in our new approach, the ionospheric-free linear combination is not used. The combination of signals from different satellite systems is accomplished by taking into account the receiver inter-system bias. MAP3 has been implemented in MATLAB and integrated within a complete PPP software developed on site and named PCube. We test the MAP3 performance numerically and contrast it with other external PPP programs. In general, MAP3 positioning accuracy with low-noise GPS dual-frequency observations is about 2.5 cm in 2-h observation periods, 1 cm in 10 h, and 7 mm after 1 day. This means an improvement in the accuracy in short observation periods of at least 7 mm with respect to the other PPP programs. The MAP3 convergence time is also analyzed and some results obtained from real triple-frequency GPS and GIOVE observations are presented.  相似文献   

A generalized additive model for the spatial distribution of snowpack in the Spanish Pyrenees     

J. I. Lpez‐Moreno  D. Nogus‐Bravo 《水文研究》2005,19(16):3167-3176

A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to model the spatial distribution of snow depth in the central Spanish Pyrenees. Statistically significant non‐linear relationships were found between distinct location and topographical variables and the average depth of the April snowpack at 76 snow poles from 1985 to 2000. The joint effect of the predictor variables explained more than 73% of the variance of the dependent variable. The performance of the model was assessed by applying a number of quantitative approaches to the residuals from a cross‐validation test. The relatively low estimated errors and the possibility of understanding the processes that control snow accumulation, through the response curves of each independent variable, indicate that GAMs may be a useful tool for interpolating local snow depth or other climate parameters. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hydrogeochemical balance of forest umbrisol profiles (‘Sierra de Gata’, central western Spain)     

I. Menéndez  G. Moreno  J. F. Gallardo  J. Saavedra 《水文研究》2007,21(14):1949-1956

Three techniques for obtaining soil water solutions (gravitational and matrical waters extracted using both in situ tension lysimeters and in vitro pressure chambers) and their later chemical analysis were performed in order to know the evolution of the soil‐solution composition when water moves down through the soil, from the Ah soil horizon to the BwC‐ or C‐horizons of forest soils located in western Spain. Additionally, ion concentrations and water volumes of input waters to soil (canopy washout) and exported waters (drainage solutions from C‐horizons) were determined to establish the net balance of solutes in order to determine the rates of leaching or retention of ions. A generalized process of sorption or retention of most components (even Cl^?) was observed, from the soil surface to the C‐horizon, in both gravitational and matrical waters, with H₄SiO₄, Mn²⁺, Na⁺, and SO₄^2? being the net exported components from the soil through the groundwater. These results enhance the role of the recycling effect in these forest soils. The net percentages of elements retained in these forest soils, considering the inputs and the outputs balance, were 68% K⁺, 85% Ca²⁺, 58% Mg²⁺, 7% Al³⁺, 5% Fe³⁺, 34% Zn²⁺, 57% Cl^?, and 20% NO₃^?, and about 75% of dissolved organic carbon was mineralized. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Water reservoirs and the risk of accidental flood occurrence. Case study: Stanca–Costesti reservoir and the historical floods of the Prut river in the period July–August 2008, Romania     

Gheorghe Romanescu  Cristian Stoleriu  Ana‐Maria Romanescu 《水文研究》2011,25(13):2056-2070

In the summer of 2008 the Prut river recorded a historical flow of 7140 m³/s at its entrance into Romania. This flow was the highest ever recorded of any Romanian river. The high value was generated by high amounts of rainfall recorded first on the territory of Ukraine and then in Romania. Unfortunately, there were some discrepancies between the data transmitted and intercepted from the Meteorology National Agency and Hydrology and Water Management National Agency. This is why the amount of precipitation which fell over the territory of Ukraine could not be monitored in time and punctually. Nor could the high flood wave moving rapidly from the upper basin to the lower basin. The high flow of the upper Prut caused the accumulation of an immense quantity of water in the Stanca–Costesti reservoir. Under the conditions of precipitation occurring in the lower river basin as well, the levels reached the flood quota and the reservoir reached the maximum accepted capacity, with 0·1% insurance. The release of supplementary water quantities from the reservoir would have produced catastrophic floods downstream. Keeping the water in the reservoir could have broken it and the flooding, through backwater eddies, or the riverbank settlements. In such a case, it would have produced the greatest tragedy in the hydrological history of Europe. The most significant damage was produced upstream of the barrage, next to the localities of Radauti Prut and Baranca–Hudesti, as well as in the area of the reservoir, as a result of the phenomenon known as ‘remuu’, or backwater eddies. The floods of the Prut river occurred between the end of July and the end of August. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献