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Hye-In Jeong Joong-Bae Ahn June-Yi Lee Andrea Alessandri Harry H. Hendon 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(3-4):1073-1091
A significant interdecadal climate shift of interannual variability and predictability of two types of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely the canonical or eastern Pacific (EP)-type and Modoki or central Pacific (CP) type, are investigated. Using the retrospective forecasts of six-state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for December–January–February during the period of 1972–2005 along with corresponding observed and reanalyzed data, we examine the climate regime shift that occurred in the winter of 1988/1989 and how the shift affected interannual variability and predictability of two types of ENSO for the two periods of 1972–1988 (hereafter PRE) and 1989–2005 (hereafter POST). The result first shows substantial interdecadal changes of observed sea surface temperature (SST) in mean state and variability over the western and central Pacific attributable to the significant warming trend in the POST period. In the POST period, the SST variability increased (decreased) significantly over the western (eastern) Pacific. The MME realistically reproduces the observed interdecadal changes with 1- and 4-month forecast lead time. It is found that the CP-type ENSO was more prominent and predictable during the POST than the PRE period while there was no apparent difference in the variability and predictability of the EP-type ENSO between two periods. Note that the second empirical orthogonal function mode of the Pacific SST during the POST period represents the CP-type ENSO but that during the PRE period captures the ENSO transition phase. The MME better predicts the former than the latter. We also investigate distinctive regional impacts associated with the two types of ENSO during the two periods. 相似文献
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Natural Hazards - The Jalisco region in western Mexico is one of the most seismically active in the country. The city of Puerto Vallarta is located at Bahía de Banderas on the northern coast... 相似文献
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Zeng Chen Van Paassen Leon A Zheng Jun-jie Stallings Young Elizabeth G Hall Caitlyn A Veenis Yvo Van der Star Wouter R. L. Konstantinou Maria Kavazanjian Edward 《Acta Geotechnica》2022,17(12):5359-5374
Acta Geotechnica - A field trial was performed to test the feasibility of microbially induced desaturation and precipitation (MIDP) by denitrification for the stabilization of a silty soil.... 相似文献
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Stefania Venturi Franco Tassi Orlando Vaselli Georges E. Vougioukalakis Heba Rashed Christos Kanellopoulos Chiara Caponi Francesco Capecchiacci Jacopo Cabassi Andrea Ricci Luciano Giannini 《Natural Hazards》2018,90(2):601-621
Rip currents are fast moving, offshore flows that have the ability to move even the strongest swimmers into deeper waters. Miami Beach, Florida is one of the most visited beaches in the USA and a sought after destination for citizens and international tourists alike. It is also known to be a rip current “hot spot.” These factors greatly increase the risk of drowning; however, no previous research has focused on beachgoer perception of rip-related risks in South Florida. Over a 12-month period, 203 public surveys were collected to determine the rip current knowledge of beachgoers at Miami Beach based on factors such as swimming ability and frequency of beach visits. The responses were analyzed by constructing a normalized component factor to determine the respondent’s comprehensive knowledge of rips, and multiple regression models were used to assess the net influences of sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics on the responses. A significant proportion of the survey respondents showed insufficient knowledge, indicating they are at risk of drowning in a rip current. Frequent beachgoer’s exposure to the beach environment, maturation, and nativity is identified as the main contributors to knowledge net of other sociodemographic compositions. The most at-risk groups were determined to be young adults, foreign tourists, poor swimmers, and those who infrequently visited the beach. Miami Beach needs to initiate a rip current safety campaign to target these at-risk beachgoers, where interventions beyond familial and educational institutions should be introduced. 相似文献
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Andrea Di Capua Giovanni Vezzoli Alessandro Cavallo Gianluca Groppelli 《Geological Journal》2016,51(3):338-353
The Villa Olmo Conglomerate (lower member of the Como Conglomerate Formation, Gonfolite Lombarda Group, Southern Alps, Italy) represents the first coarse clastic inputs into the Oligocene Southalpine Foredeep. A number of techniques including sedimentary lithofacies analyses, clast counts on turbidite conglomerate bodies, sandstone petrography through Gazzi–Dickinson point‐count method and XRF analyses, and optical and minero‐chemical analyses on single clasts have been performed, in order to better define the sediment source area and geodynamic conditions which promoted sedimentation in the Southalpine Foredeep at the end of the Oligocene. The Villa Olmo Conglomerate interdigitates with the upper part of the Chiasso Formation, and gradually passes upward into the overlying Como Conglomerate Formation. Provenance analyses (conglomerate clast counts and sandstone petrography) reveal a strong metamorphic provenance signal, likely sourced from eroded Southalpine basement. An increase in igneous plutonic clasts reflects sediment supply from the Southern Steep Belt and a decrease of volcano‐sedimentary Mesozoic cover sequences. Optical and minero‐chemical analyses on volcanic detritus detect the presence of sub‐intrusive to effusive, andesite to rhyolite products, ascribable to the Varese‐Lugano Permian volcanoclastic suite, as well as Oligocene andesite products. Plutonic clasts document the presence of tonalites, granites, and brittle deformed granodiorites (with two micas), being likely sourced from the tonalite tail of the Bergell Pluton and the plutonic units of the Bellinzona‐Dascio Zone. The identification of this provenance suite implies palaeo‐drainage from the region between Varese (Southern Alps) and the Bellinzona‐Dascio Zone (Central Alps). The Villa Olmo Conglomerate is the first depositional record of the onset of tectonically driven erosion in the Alpine belt. We infer that the previous low sediment budget regime (Eocene–Middle Oligocene) was a consequence of a tectonically controlled melting phase, during which tectonic events promoted magmatic production in the middle crust of the Central Alps at rates higher than those of crustal deformation, so inhibiting sediment production. We conclude that changes in the deep structures of the Alpine Orogenic chain have controlled the main geodynamic processes during Oligocene–Neogene times, and have controlled sediment composition and supply into the Southalpine Foredeep. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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