Quantifying sources of uncertainty in projected wheat yield changes under climate change in eastern Australia     

Bin Wang  De Li Liu  Cathy Waters  Qiang Yu 《Climatic change》2018,151(2):259-273

Future climate projections and impact analyses are pivotal to evaluate the potential change in crop yield under climate change. Impact assessment of climate change is also essential to prepare and implement adaptation measures for farmers and policymakers. However, there are uncertainties associated with climate change impact assessment when combining crop models and climate models under different emission scenarios. This study quantifies the various sources of uncertainty associated with future climate change effects on wheat productivity at six representative sites covering dry and wet environments in Australia based on 12 soil types and 12 nitrogen application rates using one crop model driven by 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) at near future period 2021–2060 and far future period 2061–2100. We used the analysis of variance (ANOVA) to quantify the sources of uncertainty in wheat yield change. Our results indicated that GCM uncertainty largely dominated over RCPs, nitrogen rates, and soils for the projections of wheat yield at drier locations. However, at wetter sites, the largest share of uncertainty was nitrogen, followed by GCMs, soils, and RCPs. In addition, the soil types at two northern sites in the study area had greater effects on yield change uncertainty probably due to the interaction effect of seasonal rainfall and soil water storage capacity. We concluded that the relative contributions of different uncertainty sources are dependent on climatic location. Understanding the share of uncertainty in climate impact assessment is important for model choice and will provide a basis for producing more reliable impact assessment.  相似文献   

A 14,300-year-long record of fire-vegetation-climate linkages at Battle Ground Lake, southwestern Washington   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Megan K. Walsh  Cathy Whitlock 《Quaternary Research》2008,70(2):251-264

High-resolution macroscopic charcoal analysis was used to reconstruct a 14,300-year-long fire history record from the lower Columbia River Valley in southwestern Washington, which was compared to a previous vegetation reconstruction for the site. In the late-glacial period (ca. 14,300-13,100 cal yr BP), Pinus/Picea-dominated parkland supported little to no fire activity. From the late-glacial to the early Holocene (ca. 13,100-10,800 cal yr BP), Pseudotsuga/Abies-dominated forest featured more frequent fire episodes that burned mostly woody vegetation. In the early to middle Holocene (ca. 10,800-5200 cal yr BP), Quercus-dominated savanna was associated with frequent fire episodes of low-to-moderate severity, with an increased herbaceous (i.e., grass) charcoal content. From the middle to late Holocene (ca. 5200 cal yr BP to present), forest dominated by Pseudotsuga, Thuja-type, and Tsuga heterophylla supported less frequent, but mostly large or high-severity fire episodes. Fire episodes were least frequent, but were largest or most severe, after ca. 2500 cal yr BP. The fire history at Battle Ground Lake was apparently driven by climate, directly through the length and severity of the fire season, and indirectly through climate-driven vegetation shifts, which affected available fuel biomass.  相似文献   

Postglacial Vegetation and Climate of the Cascade Range, Central Oregon     

Debra S. Sea  Cathy Whitlock 《Quaternary Research》1995,43(3)

Pollen data from two sites provide information on the postglacial vegetation and climate history of the Cascade Range. Indian Prairie in the western Cascade Range was colonized by subalpine forests of Pinus, Picea, and Tsuga and open meadows prior to ca. 12,400 ¹⁴C yr B.P. The treeline lay 500 to 1000 m below its modern elevation and conditions were cooler than at present. From ca. 12,400 to ca. 9950 ¹⁴C yr B.P. Abies became important and the forest resembled that presently found at middle elevations in the western Cascade Range. The pollen record implies a rise in treeline and warmer conditions than before. From ca. 10,000 to 4000-4500 ¹⁴C yr B.P., conditions that were warmer and effectively drier than today led to the establishment of a closed forest composed of Pseudotsuga , Abies, and, at lower elevations, Quercus and Corylus . During this period, Gold Lake Bog in the High Cascades was surrounded by closed forest of Pinus and Abies. The early-Holocene pollen assemblages at both Indian Prairie and Gold Lake Bog lack modern analogues, and it is likely that greater-than-present summer radiation fostered unique climatic conditions and vegetation associations at middle and high elevations. In the late Holocene, beginning ca. 4000-4500 ¹⁴C yr B.P., cooler and more humid conditions prevailed and the modern vegetation was established. A comparison of these sites with others in the Pacific Northwest suggests that major patterns of vegetational change at individual sites were a response to large-scale changes in the climate system that affected the entire region.  相似文献   

Variation in peperite textures associated with differing host-sediment properties   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Cathy J. Busby-Spera  James D. L. White 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1987,49(6):765-776

Peperites formed by mixing of magma and wet sediment are well exposed along Punta China, Baja California, Mexico, where two sills intrude a section of lava flows, limestones, and volcaniclastic rocks. Irregular lobes and dikes extend from the sills several meters into host sediments, including highly comminuted flow top breccias (lithic lapilli tuff breccias) and shelly micrites, whereas intrusive contacts with lava flows are sharp and planar. Where one sill intruded both coarse-grained volcaniclastic rock and fine-grained limestone, textural differences between the hosts produced strikingly different styles of peperite. Blocky masses of the basaltic intrusions up to 1 m in size were dispersed for distances up to 3 m into host lithic lapilli tuff breccias; the blocks consequently underwent in situ fragmentation as they were rapidly quenched. The high degree of dispersion resulted from steam explosions as the magma enveloped pockets of water in the coarse-grained permeable host. Elutriation of fine-grained material from vertical pipes in tuff breccia above the lower sill provides evidence for meter-scale fluidization of the host. The contact zone between the basaltic magma and the shelly micrite host resembles a mixture of two viscous, immiscible fluids (fluidal peperite). Intrusion occurred behind a stable vapor film which entrained lime mud particles and carried them off grain by grain as magma advanced into the host. Thin-section-scale elutriation pipes formed. Microglobular peperite represents a frozen example of a fuel-coolant interaction (FCI) between basaltic magma and fluidized micrite host. The intimate intermixing of magma and host at the submillimeter level is attributed to fluid instabilities developed along the magma-vapor-host interface. Such intimate intermixing of magma and water-bearing fragmental debris is commonly a precursory step toward explosive hydrovolcanism.  相似文献   

Effects of oil transferred from incubating gulls to their eggs     

Kirke A. King  Cathy A. Lefever 《Marine pollution bulletin》1979,10(11):319-321

No. 2 fuel oil, or water, was applied to the breast feathers of incubating laughing gulls trapped at their nest site on an island colony in Texas. Gulls were released after treatment and allowed to incubate their eggs for 5 days. Oil was transferred from the feathers of incubating adults to their eggs and resulted in 41% embryo mortality compared with 2% in controls.  相似文献   

A record of late Quaternary vegetation from Davis Lake,southern Puget Lowland,Washington     

Cathy W. Barnosky 《Quaternary Research》1981,16(2):221-239

Pollen and macrofossil analyses of a core spanning 26,000 yr from Davis Lake reveal late Pleistocene and Holocene vegetational patterns in the Puget Lowland. The core ranges lithologically from a basal inorganic clay to a detritus gyttja to an upper fibrous peat and includes eight tephra units. The late Pleistocene pollen sequence records two intervals of tundra-parkland vegetation. The earlier of these has high percentages of Picea, Gramineae, and Artemisia pollen and represents the vegetation during the Evans Creek Stade (Fraser Glaciation) (ca. 25,000–17,000 yr B.P.). The later parkland interval is dominated by Picea, Tsuga mertensiana, and Gramineae. It corresponds to the maximum ice advance in the Puget Lowland during the Vashon Stade (Fraser Glaciation) (ca. 14,000 yr B.P.). An increase in Pinus ontorta pollen between the two tundra-parkland intervals suggests a temporary rise in treeline during an unnamed interstade. After 13,500 yr B.P., a mixed woodland of subalpine and lowland conifers grew at Davis Lake during a period of rapid climatic amelioration. In the early Holocene, the prolonged expansion of Pseudotsuga and Alnus woodland suggests dry, temperate conditions similar to those of present rainshadow sites in the Puget Lowland. More-mesic forests of Tsuga eterophylla, Thuja plicata, and Pseudotsuga, similar to present lowland vegetation, appeared in the late Holocene (ca. 5500 yr B.P.).  相似文献   

Zeolitization of intracaldera sediments and rhyolitic rocks in the 1.25 Ma lake of Valles caldera,New Mexico,USA     

Steve J. Chipera  Fraser Goff  Cathy J. Goff  Melissa Fittipaldo 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

Quantitative X-ray diffraction analysis of about 80 rhyolite and associated lacustrine rocks has characterized previously unrecognized zeolitic alteration throughout the Valles caldera resurgent dome. The alteration assemblage consists primarily of smectite–clinoptilolite–mordenite–silica, which replaces groundmass and fills voids, especially in the tuffs and lacustrine rocks. Original rock textures are routinely preserved. Mineralization typically extends to depths of only a few tens of meters and resembles shallow “caldera-type zeolitization” as defined by Utada et al. [Utada, M., Shimizu, M., Ito, T., Inoue, A., 1999. Alteration of caldera-forming rocks related to the Sanzugawa volcanotectonic depression, northeast Honshu, Japan — with special reference to “caldera-type zeolitization.” Resource Geol. Spec. Issue No. 20, 129–140]. Geology and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates limit the period of extensive zeolite growth to roughly the first 30 kyr after the current caldera formed (ca. 1.25 to 1.22 Ma). Zeolitic alteration was promoted by saturation of shallow rocks with alkaline lake water (a mixture of meteoric waters and degassed hydrothermal fluids) and by high thermal gradients caused by cooling of the underlying magma body and earliest post-caldera rhyolite eruptions. Zeolitic alteration of this type is not found in the later volcanic and lacustrine rocks of the caldera moat (≤ 0.8 Ma) suggesting that later lake waters were cooler and less alkaline. The shallow zeolitic alteration does not have characteristics resembling classic, alkaline lake zeolite deposits (no analcime, erionite, or chabazite) nor does it contain zeolites common in high-temperature hydrothermal systems (laumontite or wairakite). Although aerially extensive, the early zeolitic alteration does not form laterally continuous beds and are consequently, not of economic significance.  相似文献   

Do young martian ray craters have ages consistent with the crater count system?     

William K. Hartmann  Cathy Quantin  Olga Popova 《Icarus》2010,208(2):621-21

McEwen et al. (McEwen, A.S., Preblich, B.S., Turtle, E.P., Artemieva, N.A., Golombek, M.P., Hurst, M., Kirk, R.L., Burr, D.M., Christensen, P. [2005]. Icarus 176, 351-381) developed a useful test for the internal consistency of crater-count chronometry systems. They argued that certain multi-kilometer, fresh-looking martian craters with prominent rays should be the youngest or near-youngest craters in their size range. The “McEwen et al. test” is that the ages determined from crater densities of the smallest superimposed craters (typically diameter D ∼ 5-20 m) should thus be comparable to the expected formation intervals of the host primary. McEwen et al. concluded from MOC data that crater chronometry failed this test by factors of 700-2000. We apply HiRISE and other imagery to eight different young craters in order to re-evaluate their arguments. We use existing crater chronology systems as well as the reported observed production rate of 16 m craters (Malin, M.C., Edgett, K., Posiolova, L., McColley, S., Noe Dobrea, E. [2006]. Science 314, 1573-1557; Hartmann, W.K., Quantin, C., Mangold, N. [2007]. Icarus 186, 11-23; Kreslavsky [2007]. Seventh International Conference on Mars, 3325). Every case passes the McEwen et al. test. We conclude that the huge inconsistencies suggested by McEwen et al. are spurious. Many of these craters show evidence of impact into ice-rich material, and appear to have ice-flow features and sublimation pits on their floors. As production rate data improve, decameter-scale craters will provide a valuable way of dating these young martian geological formations and the processes that modify them.  相似文献   

The Atlantic ITCZ bias in CMIP5 models     

Siongco  Angela Cheska  Hohenegger  Cathy  Stevens  Bjorn 《Climate Dynamics》2015,45(5-6):1169-1180

Climate Dynamics - Precipitation over the tropical Atlantic in 24 atmospheric models is analyzed using an object-based approach, which clusters rainy areas in the models as precipitation objects...  相似文献   

Active layer hydrology in an arctic tundra ecosystem: quantifying water sources and cycling using water stable isotopes          下载免费PDF全文

Heather M. Throckmorton  Brent D. Newman  Jeffrey M. Heikoop  George B. Perkins  Xiahong Feng  David E. Graham  Daniel O'Malley  Velimir V. Vesselinov  Jessica Young  Stan D. Wullschleger  Cathy J. Wilson 《水文研究》2016,30(26):4972-4986

Climate change and thawing permafrost in the Arctic will significantly alter landscape hydro‐geomorphology and the distribution of soil moisture, which will have cascading effects on climate feedbacks (CO₂ and CH₄) and plant and microbial communities. Fundamental processes critical to predicting active layer hydrology are not well understood. This study applied water stable isotope techniques (δ²H and δ¹⁸O) to infer sources and mixing of active layer waters in a polygonal tundra landscape in Barrow, Alaska (USA), in August and September of 2012. Results suggested that winter precipitation did not contribute substantially to surface waters or subsurface active layer pore waters measured in August and September. Summer rain was the main source of water to the active layer, with seasonal ice melt contributing to deeper pore waters later in the season. Surface water evaporation was evident in August from a characteristic isotopic fractionation slope (δ²H vs δ¹⁸O). Freeze‐out isotopic fractionation effects in frozen active layer samples and textural permafrost were indistinguishable from evaporation fractionation, emphasizing the importance of considering the most likely processes in water isotope studies, in systems where both evaporation and freeze‐out occur in close proximity. The fractionation observed in frozen active layer ice was not observed in liquid active layer pore waters. Such a discrepancy between frozen and liquid active layer samples suggests mixing of meltwater, likely due to slow melting of seasonal ice. This research provides insight into fundamental processes relating to sources and mixing of active layer waters, which should be considered in process‐based fine‐scale and intermediate‐scale hydrologic models. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献