Seismic Hazard for Selected Sites in Greece: A Bayesian Estimate of Seismic Peak Ground Acceleration   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

A. A. Lyubushin  T. M. Tsapanos  V. F. Pisarenko  G. Ch. Koravos 《Natural Hazards》2002,25(1):83-98

A procedure for estimating maximum values of seismic peak ground accelerationat the examined site and quantiles of its probabilistic distribution in a future timeinterval of a given length is considered. The input information for the method areseismic catalog and regression relation between peak seismic acceleration at a givenpoint and magnitude and distance from the site to epicenter (seismic attenuation law).The method is based on Bayesian approach, which simply accounts for influenceof uncertainties of seismic acceleration values. The main assumptions for the method are Poissonian character of seismic events flow and distribution law of Gutenberg-Richter's type. The method is applied to seismic hazard estimation in six selected sitesin Greece.  相似文献   

Facies architecture of a submarine fan channel–levee complex: the Juniper Ridge Conglomerate, Coalinga, California     

Thomas A. Hickson  & Donald R. Lowe† 《Sedimentology》2002,49(2):335-362

The Upper Cretaceous Juniper Ridge Conglomerate (JRC) near Coalinga, California, provides a rare, high-quality exposure of a submarine channel to overbank transition. The facies architecture of the JRC comprises a thick, predominantly mudstone sequence overlain by a channellized conglomerate package. Conglomeratic bounding surfaces truncate successions of interbedded turbiditic sandstones and mudstones both vertically and laterally. Thick-bedded, massive sandstones are interbedded with conglomerates. Facies architecture, palaeocurrent indicators, slump features, sandstone percentages and sandstone bed thickness trends lead to the interpretation that these elements comprise channel and overbank facies. A vertical sequence with conglomerate at the base, followed by thick-bedded sandstone, and capped by interbedded turbiditic sandstone and mudstone form a fining-upward lithofacies association that is interpreted as a single channel-fill/overbank system. Three similar lithofacies associations can be related to autocyclic processes of thalweg migration and submarine fan aggradation or to allocyclically driven changes in sediment calibre.  相似文献   

Probability Density Functions as Botanical-Climatological Transfer Functions for Climate Reconstruction     

Norbert Kühl  Christoph Gebhardt  Thomas Litt  Andreas Hense 《Quaternary Research》2002,58(3):381

We present a new procedure, the pdf method (pdf=probability density function), for reconstructing Quaternary climate utilizing botanical data. The procedure includes the advantages of the indicator species method by considering the fossil and modern presence and absence of taxa rather than their frequencies, thus avoiding the need for modern analog plant communities. Overcoming the problematic use of absolute limits to describe climate response ranges is the main progress of the pdf method in comparison to the indicator species method. This advantage results from estimating probability density functions (pdfs) for monthly mean January and July temperature conditional on the present day occurrence of single taxa. Gaussian distributions sufficiently approximate pdfs of many, although not all, studied taxa. On the assumption of statistical independence, the procedure calculates a joint pdf as the product of the pdfs of the individual taxa. This algorithm weights each taxon according to the extent of its climate response range expressed by its covariance structure. We interpret the maximum of the resulting pdf as the most likely climate and its confidence interval as the uncertainty range. To avoid an artificial reduction of uncertainty arising from the use of numerous similar pdfs, a preselection method is proposed based on the Mahalanobis distance between pdfs. The pdf method was applied to the Carpinus phase of a profile from Gröbern, Germany, that spans the last interglaciation (Eemian). The reconstructed most probable January and July temperatures of about 0.0°C and 18.4°C barely differ from the modern values of −0.5°C and 18.3°C.  相似文献   

Cathodoluminescence of authigenic albite     

Detlev K. Richter  Thomas G  tte  Dirk Habermann 《Sedimentary Geology》2002,150(3-4):367-374

Authigenic albites in carbonate rocks typically grow in a high-grade diagenetic to low-grade metamorphic environment and often show Roc-Tourné-twinning sensu Füchtbauer. Based on an investigation of four Middle to South European occurrences, they show Mn²⁺- and Fe³⁺-activated cathodoluminescence (CL), as revealed by combined high resolution spectroscopy of cathodoluminescence emission (HRS-CL), electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR), and proton-induced X-ray emission (μPIXE).  相似文献   

A comparison of early juvenile red drum densities among various habitat types in Galveston Bay, Texas     

Gregory W. Stunz  Thomas J. Minello  Phillip S. Levin 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(1):76-85

Seagrass meadows are often cited as important nursery areas for newly settled red drum even though many estuaries, such as Galveston Bay, Texas, support large numbers of red drum and have limited seagrass cover, suggesting the use of alternate nursery areas. We examined patterns of habitat use for newly settled red drum at six sampling areas in Galveston Bay; two areas had seagrass beds and four areas had no seagrass. We measured densities in different habitat types using epibenthic sleds and enclosure samplers. Peak recruitment of young red drum to the estuary occurred during September through December. Highest densities of new settlers were found in seagrass meadows (primarilyHalodule wrightii), but when seagrass was absent, the highest densities of red drum occurred along theSpartina alterniflora marsh edge interface. Densities were relatively low on nonvegetated bottom away from the marsh edge. We also examined density patterns in other habitat types at selected sampling areas and found no red drum within marsh vegetation away from the marsh edge interface (5 and 10 m into the marsh interior). Oyster reefCrassostrea virginica was sampled using lift nets, and we found no red drum using this habitat, although adjacent seagrass and marsh interface habitats were used. Even though red drum densities in marsh edge were low relative to seagrass, the large areal extent of marshes in the bay complex probably makes marsh edge the most important nursery habitat for red drum in Galveston Bay.  相似文献   

Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Donald Scavia  John C. Field  Donald F. Boesch  Robert W. Buddemeier  Virginia Burkett  Daniel R. Cayan  Michael Fogarty  Mark A. Harwell  Robert W. Howarth  Curt Mason  Denise J. Reed  Thomas C. Royer  Asbury H. Sallenger  James G. Titus 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(2):149-164

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO₂. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO₂ levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.  相似文献   

Book Review: Upscaling and Downscaling Methods for Environmental Research. By Marc F. P. Bierkens,Peter A. Finke,and Peter de Willigen. Kluwer Academic Publishers,Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 2000, 190 p. + CD-ROM, $88.00 lpar;U.S.), hardback,ISBN 0-7923-6339-6     

Kumke  Thomas 《Mathematical Geosciences》2002,34(3):357-358

Mathematical Geosciences -  相似文献   

Towards high‐resolution 3D marine seismic surveying using Boomer sources     

Christof Müller  Bernd Milkereit  Thomas Bohlen  Friedrich Theilen 《Geophysical Prospecting》2002,50(5):517-526

The use of Boomer sources for 3D seismic imaging of shallow marine structures was investigated in a feasibility study. Boomers show sufficient stability to be used in multichannel seismic surveys. The acquisition of a high-frequency, densely sampled seismic data volume was successfully performed in the Baltic Sea. A Pleistocene fluvial channel system and shallow gas accumulations were revealed beneath the unconsolidated sediments which constitute the sea-floor in the southern Kiel Bay.  相似文献   

Contrasting rifted margin styles south of Greenland: implications for mantle plume dynamics     

Thomas K. Nielsen  Hans Christian Larsen  John R. Hopper 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2002,200(3-4):271-286

We present new and reprocessed seismic reflection data from the area where the southeast and southwest Greenland margins intersected to form a triple junction south of Greenland in the early Tertiary. During breakup at 56 Ma, thick igneous crust was accreted along the entire 1300-km-long southeast Greenland margin from the Greenland Iceland Ridge to, and possibly 100 km beyond, the triple junction into the Labrador Sea. However, highly extended and thin crust 250 km to the west of the triple junction suggests that magmatically starved crustal formation occurred on the southwest Greenland margin at the same time. Thus, a transition from a volcanic to a non-volcanic margin over only 100–200 km is observed. Magmatism related to the impact of the Iceland plume below the North Atlantic around 61 Ma is known from central-west and southeast Greenland. The new seismic data also suggest the presence of a small volcanic plateau of similar age close to the triple junction. The extent of initial plume-related volcanism inferred from these observations is explained by a model of lateral flow of plume material that is guided by relief at the base of the lithosphere. Plume mantle is channelled to great distances provided that significant melting does not take place. Melting causes cooling and dehydration of the plume mantle. The associated viscosity increase acts against lateral flow and restricts plume material to its point of entry into an actively spreading rift. We further suggest that thick Archaean lithosphere blocked direct flow of plume material into the magma-starved southwest Greenland margin while the plume was free to flow into the central west and east Greenland margins. The model is consistent with a plume layer that is only moderately hotter, 100–200°C, than ambient mantle temperature, and has a thickness comparable to lithospheric thickness variations, 50–100 km. Lithospheric architecture, the timing of continental rifting and viscosity changes due to melting of the plume material are therefore critical parameters for understanding the distribution of magmatism.  相似文献   

地下水潮汐现象的物理机制和统一数学方程   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

张昭栋  郑金涵  耿杰  王忠民  魏焕 《地震地质》2002,24(2):208-214

用新的分层承压含水层模式 ,不但考虑含水层的力学压缩性质 ,而且考虑含水层的渗流特性 ,并结合扰动信息源的频率特性 ,分别研究扰动源地球固体潮、大气潮和地表负荷潮对承压井水位和流量的影响机理 ,给出相应的偏微分方程。从方程的解释或数值解讨论扰动源与承压井含水层的力学压缩参数、渗流特性参数及与频率特性频数的关系 ,进而给出承压井水位和流量对地球固体潮、大气潮和地表负荷潮汐响应的统一数学方程及其潮汐响应函数 ,并揭示了上述几类潮汐扰动信息源对承压井水位和流量影响的物理机理  相似文献