The evaluation of the probability of rock wedge failure using the point estimate method     

Hyuck Jin Park  Jeong-Gi Um  Ik Woo  Jeong Woo Kim 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,65(1):353-361

In a probabilistic analysis of rock slope stability, the Monte Carlo simulation technique has been widely used to evaluate the probability of slope failure. While the Monte Carlo simulation technique has many advantages, the technique requires complete information of the random variables in stability analysis; however, in practice, it is difficult to obtain complete information from a field investigation. The information on random variables is usually limited due to the restraints of sampling numbers. This is why approximation methods have been proposed for reliability analyses. Approximation methods, such as the first-order second-moment method and the point estimate method, require only the mean and standard deviation of the random variable; therefore, it is easy to utilize when the information is limited. Usually, a single closed form of the formula for the evaluation of the factor of safety is needed for an approximation method. However, the commonly used stability analysis method of wedge failure is complicated and cumbersome and does not provide a simple equation for the evaluation of the factor of safety. Consequently, the approximation method is not appropriate for wedge failure. In order to overcome this limitation, a simple equation, which is obtained from the maximum likelihood estimation method for wedge failure, is utilized to calculate the probability of failure. A simple equation for the direct estimation of the safety factors for wedge failure has been empirically derived from failed and stable cases of slope, using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The developed technique has been applied to a practical example, and the results from the developed technique were compared to the results from the Monte Carlo simulation technique.  相似文献   

Impact of vegetation feedback on the temperature and its diurnal range over the Northern Hemisphere during summer in a 2 × CO2 climate     

Su-Jong Jeong  Chang-Hoi Ho  Tae-Won Park  Jinwon Kim  Samuel Levis 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(3-4):821-833

This study examines the potential impact of vegetation feedback on the changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) due to the doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations during summer over the Northern Hemisphere using a global climate model equipped with a dynamic vegetation model. Results show that CO₂ doubling induces significant increases in the daily mean temperature and decreases in DTR regardless of the presence of the vegetation feedback effect. In the presence of vegetation feedback, increase in vegetation productivity related to warm and humid climate lead to (1) an increase in vegetation greenness in the mid-latitude and (2) a greening and the expansion of grasslands and boreal forests into the tundra region in the high latitudes. The greening via vegetation feedback induces contrasting effects on the temperature fields between the mid- and high-latitude regions. In the mid-latitudes, the greening further limits the increase in T _max more than T _min, resulting in further decreases in DTR because the greening amplifies evapotranspiration and thus cools daytime temperature. The greening in high-latitudes, however, it reinforces the warming by increasing T _max more than T _min to result in a further increase in DTR from the values obtained without vegetation feedback. This effect on T _max and DTR in the high latitude is mainly attributed to the reduction in surface albedo and the subsequent increase in the absorbed insolation. Present study indicates that vegetation feedback can alter the response of the temperature field to increases in CO₂ mainly by affecting the T _max and that its effect varies with the regional climate characteristics as a function of latitudes.  相似文献   

Temperature trends in the skin/surface, mid-troposphere and low stratosphere near Korea from satellite and ground measurements     

Jung-Moon Yoo  Young-In Won  Young-Jun Cho  Myeong-Jae Jeong  Dong-Bin Shin  Suk-Jo Lee  Yu-Ri Lee  Soo-Min Oh  Soo-Jin Ban 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2011,47(5):439-455

Various types of satellite (AIRS/AMSU, MODIS) and ground measurements are used to analyze temperature trends in the four vertical layers (skin/surface, mid-troposphere, and low stratosphere) around the Korean Peninsula (123–132°E, 33–44°N) during the period from September 2002 to August 2010. The ground-based observations include 72 Surface Meteorological Stations (SMSs), 6 radiosonde stations (RAOBs), 457 Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) over the land, and 5 buoy stations over the ocean. A strong warming (0.052 K yr^?1) at the surface, and a weak warming (0.004～0.010 K yr^?1) in the mid-troposphere and low stratosphere have been found from satellite data, leading to an unstable atmospheric layer. The AIRS/AMSU warming trend over the ocean surface around the Korean Peninsula is about 2.5 times greater than that over the land surface. The ground measurements from both SMS and AWS over the land surface of South Korea also show a warming of 0.043～0.082 K yr^?1, consistent with the satellite observations. The correlation average (r = 0.80) between MODIS skin temperature and ground measurement is significant. The correlations between AMSU and RAOB are very high (0.91～0.95) in the anomaly time series, calculated from the spatial averages of monthly mean temperature values. However, the warming found in the AMSU data is stronger than that from the RAOB at the surface. The opposite feature is present above the mid-troposphere, indicating that there is a systematic difference. Warming phenomena (0.012～0.078 K yr^?1) are observed from all three data sets (SMS, AWS, MODIS), which have been corroborated by the coincident measurements at five ground stations. However, it should also be noted that the observed trends are subject to large uncertainty as the corresponding 95% confidence intervals tend to be larger than the observed signals due to large thermal variability and the relatively short periods of the satellitebased temperature records. The EOF analysis of monthly mean temperature anomalies indicates that the tropospheric temperature variability near Korea is primarily linked to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and secondarily to ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation). However, the low stratospheric temperature variability is mainly associated with Southern Oscillation and then additionally with Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Uncertainties from the different spatial resolutions between satellite data are discussed in the trends.  相似文献   

Effect of highly pervious geological features on ground-water flow into a tunnel     

J. Moon  S. Jeong 《Engineering Geology》2011,117(3-4):207-216

Current practice for estimating water inflow rate relies mostly on analytical solutions which assume a homogeneous, isotropic porous medium around a tunnel. Field measurements indicate that current engineering practice does not consistently make adequate estimate of ground-water flow into a tunnel during excavation due to various factors that analytical solutions do not properly take into account. Among the various factors affecting ground-water flow, the significance of a highly pervious feature located near the tunnel is discussed in this research. The highly pervious feature, which is located near an underground opening and connected to a large source of water, can provide a path for relatively high-head water to the joints intersecting the opening. This paper describes the influence of a highly pervious feature on the ground-water flow regime around a tunnel and the change of inflow rate as the tunnel approaches a highly pervious feature.  相似文献   

Carbon isotope composition of Upper Cambrian to Lower Ordovician carbonate in Korea,and its bearing on the Cambrian–Ordovician boundary and Lower Ordovician paleoceanography     

Sung Kyung Hong  Yong Il Lee  So Yeong Jeong 《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2011,40(1):252-260

This study presents an example of locating Cambrian–Ordovician boundary in the lower Paleozoic carbonate succession in Korea using carbon isotope stratigraphy. The Yeongweol Unit of the lower Paleozoic Joseon Supergroup comprises the Upper Cambrian Wagok Formation and the Lower Ordovician Mungok Formation in the Cambrian–Ordovician transition interval. Conventionally, the boundary was placed at the lithostratigraphic boundary between the two formations. This study reveals that the boundary is positioned in the basal part of the Mungok Formation based on the carbon isotope stratigraphy coupled with biostratigraphic information of conodont and trilobite faunas. The δ¹³C curve of the Lower Ordovician Mungok Formation shows a similar trend to that of the coeval stratigraphic interval of Argentine Precordillera (Buggisch et al., 2003), suggesting that the δ¹³C curve of the Mungok Formation reflects the Early Ordovician global carbon cycle.  相似文献   

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cochlodinium polykrikoides</Emphasis> red tide detection in the South Sea of Korea using spectral classification of MODIS data     

Young Baek Son  Joji Ishizaka  Jong-Chul Jeong  Hyun-Choel Kim  Taehee Lee 《Ocean Science Journal》2011,46(4):239-263

To distinguish true red tide water (particularly Cochlodinium polykrikoides blooms) from non-red tide water (false satellite high chlorophyll water) in the South Sea of Korea, we developed a systematic classification method using spectral information from MODIS level products and applied it to five different harmful algal bloom events. Red tide and nonred tide waters were classified based on four different criteria. The first step revealed that the radiance peaks of potential red tide water occurred at 555 and 678 nm. The second step separated optically different waters that were influenced by relatively low and high contributions of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) (including detritus) to chlorophyll. The third and fourth steps discriminated red tide water from non-red tide water based on the blue-to-green ratio in areas with lower and higher contributions of CDOM to chlorophyll, respectively. After applying the red tide classification (using the four criteria), the spectral response of the red tide water, which is influenced by pigment concentration, showed different slopes for the blue and green bands (lower slope at blue bands and higher slope at green bands). The opposite result was found for non-red tide water, due to decreasing phytoplankton absorption and increasing detritus/CDOM absorption at blue bands. The results were well matched with the discoloration of water (blue to dark red/brown) and delineated the areal coverage of C. polykrikoides blooms, revealing the nature of spatial and temporal variations in red tides. This simple spectral classification method led to increase user accuracy for C. polykrikoides and non-red tide blooms (>46% and >97%) and provided a more reliable and robust identification of red tides over a wide range of oceanic environments than was possible using chlorophyll a concentration, chlorophyll anomaly, fluorescence analysis, or proposed red tide detection algorithms.  相似文献