Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Deliang CHEN  Christine ACHBERGER  Jouni R¨AIS¨ANEN  Cecilia HELLSTR¨OM 《大气科学进展》2006,23(1):54-60

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.  相似文献   

The presolar grain inventory of fine‐grained chondrule rims in the Mighei‐type (CM) chondrites     

Jan Leitner  Knut Metzler  Christian Vollmer  Christine Floss  Pierre Haenecour  Jnos Kodolnyi  Dennis Harries  Peter Hoppe 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2020,55(6):1176-1206

We investigated the inventory of presolar silicate, oxide, and silicon carbide (SiC) grains of fine‐grained chondrule rims in six Mighei‐type (CM) carbonaceous chondrites (Banten, Jbilet Winselwan, Maribo, Murchison, Murray and Yamato 791198), and the CM‐related carbonaceous chondrite Sutter's Mill. Sixteen O‐anomalous grains (nine silicates, six oxides) were detected, corresponding to a combined matrix‐normalized abundance of ~18 ppm, together with 21 presolar SiC grains (~42 ppm). Twelve of the O‐rich grains are enriched in ¹⁷O, and could originate from low‐mass asymptotic giant branch stars. One grain is enriched in ¹⁷O and significantly depleted in ¹⁸O, indicative of additional cool bottom processing or hot bottom burning in its stellar parent, and three grains are of likely core‐collapse supernova origin showing enhanced ¹⁸O/¹⁶O ratios relative to the solar system ratio. We find a presolar silicate/oxide ratio of 1.5, significantly lower than the ratios typically observed for chondritic meteorites. This may indicate a higher degree of aqueous alteration in the studied meteorites, or hint at a heterogeneous distribution of presolar silicates and oxides in the solar nebula. Nevertheless, the low O‐anomalous grain abundance is consistent with aqueous alteration occurring in the protosolar nebula and/or on the respective parent bodies. Six O‐rich presolar grains were studied by Auger Electron Spectroscopy, revealing two Fe‐rich silicates, one forsterite‐like Mg‐rich silicate, two Al‐oxides with spinel‐like compositions, and one Fe‐(Mg‐)oxide. Scanning electron and transmission electron microscopic investigation of a relatively large silicate grain (490 nm × 735 nm) revealed that it was crystalline åkermanite (Ca₂Mg[Si₂O₇]) or a an åkermanite‐diopside (MgCaSi₂O₆) intergrowth.  相似文献   

Sponge and coral zooxanthellae in heat and light: preliminary results of photochemical efficiency monitored with pulse amplitude modulated fluorometry     

Christine H. L. Schönberg  Ryota Suwa  Michio Hidaka  & William Kok Weng Loh 《Marine Ecology》2008,29(2):247-258

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A luminescence‐based chronology for the Harletz loess sequence,Bulgaria     

Johanna Lomax  Markus Fuchs  Pierre Antoine  Denis‐Didier Rousseau  France Lagroix  Christine Hatt  Samuel N. Taylor  Jessica L. Till  Maxime Debret  Olivier Moine  Diana Jordanova 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2019,48(1):179-194

The Harletz loess‐palaeosol sequence is located in northwestern Bulgaria and represents an important link between well‐studied loess sequences in eastern Romania and further sites to the west of the Carpathians (e.g. Serbia and Hungary). The aim of this study was to establish a chronostratigraphy of the deposits, using various methods of luminescence dating, together with basic stratigraphical field observations as well as magnetic properties. Luminescence dating was carried out using the quartz fine grain fraction and a SAR protocol, and the feldspar coarse grain fraction, applying the MET‐pIRIR protocol. Due to underestimation of the quartz fine grain fraction in the lower parts of the sequence, the resulting chronology is mainly based on the feldspar ages, which are derived from the stimulation temperature at 150 °C. A comparison with nearby sequences from Serbia, Hungary and Romania, and interpretations obtained through the stratigraphical and sedimentological signature of the sequence, supports the established chronology. Our data suggest that the prominent palaeosol (soil complex) in the upper quarter of the sequence was formed during MIS 5. It would follow that large parts of the Last Glacial loess overlying this palaeosol were probably eroded, and that the thick loess accumulation underlying this soil complex can be allocated to the penultimate glacial (MIS 6). A prominent MIS 6 tephra, which has been reported from other sequences in the area, is also present at Harletz.  相似文献   

The Požarevac loess–paleosol sequence: a record of increased aridity in the south-eastern margin of the Carpathian Basin during the last 350 ka     

Slobodan B. Marković  Eric A. Oches  Zoran M. Perić  Tivadar Gaudenyi  Mlađen Jovanović  Györgi Sipos  Christine Thiel  Jan-Pieter Buylaert  Stevan Savić  William D. McCoy  Milica G. Radaković  Rastko S. Marković  Milivoj B. Gavrilov 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(8):1436-1447

The loess sequence preserved in the Požarevac brickyard in north-eastern Serbia comprises eight loess units separated by seven paleosols. Geochronological investigation using amino acid racemization and luminescence dating support stratigraphic correlations of loess units L3, S2LL1 and L1 at the Požarevac section with loess of glacial cycles E [Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 10], D (MIS 9–8), C (MIS 7–6) and B (MIS 5–2) across central Europe. Correlation with the marine oxygen-isotope stratigraphy and associated paleoclimatic inferences are further supported by magnetic susceptibility, particle size and carbonate content measured in Požarevac sediments. Malacological investigations at the Požarevac section reveal the continuous presence of the Chondrula tridens and Helicopsis striata faunal assemblages throughout the last 350 ka. The loess malacological fauna, which is characterized by the complete absence of cold-resistant and cold-preferring species, suggests a stable, dry and relatively warm glacial and interglacial climate, compared with other central European loess localities. Together these data suggest that the south-eastern part of the Carpathian (Pannonian, Middle Danube) Basin was a refugium for warm-preferring and xerophilous land-snails during the generally unfavorable glacial climates of the late Middle and Late Pleistocene.  相似文献   

Variability of stream extents controlled by flow regime and network hydraulic scaling     

Dana A. Lapides  Christine D. Leclerc  Hana Moidu  David N. Dralle  W. Jesse Hahm 《水文研究》2021,35(3):e14079

Stream networks expand and contract through time, impacting chemical export, aquatic habitat, and water quality. Although recent advances improve prediction of the extent of the wetted channel network (L ) based on discharge at the catchment outlet (Q ), controls on the temporal variability of L remain poorly understood and unquantified. Here we develop a quantitative, conceptual framework to explore how flow regime and stream network hydraulic scaling factors co-determine the relative temporal variability in L (denoted here as the total wetted channel drainage density). Network hydraulic scaling determines how much L changes for a change in Q , while the flow regime describes how Q changes in time. We compiled datasets of co-located dynamic stream extent mapping and discharge to analyze all globally available empirical data using the presented framework. We found that although variability in L is universally damped relative to variability in Q (i.e., streamflow is relatively more variable in time than network extent), the relationship is elastic, meaning that for a given increase in the variability in Q , headwater catchments will experience greater-than-proportional increases in the variability of L . Thus, under anticipated climatic shifts towards more volatile precipitation, relative variability in headwater stream network extents can be expected to increase even more than the relative variability of discharge itself. Comparison between network extents inferred from the L -Q relationship and blue lines on USGS topographic maps shows widespread underestimation of the wetted channel network by the blue line network.  相似文献   

Nitrogen and water bubbles, oxygen isotopes, shock effects: Deciphering the history of the Bencubbin meteorite breccia     

Claude Perron  Christine Fiéni  Nicole Guilhaumou 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2008,72(3):959-977

We have observed vesicles filled with heavy nitrogen gas and water vapor in three settings in the Bencubbin CB chondrite: in the mesostasis of the silicate clasts, in the mesostasis of the chondrules of an ordinary chondrite (OC) xenolith, and in grains we refer to as bubble grains, and interpret as remelted OC chondrule mesostasis. In our view, these bubbles are a local phenomenon and formed as a consequence of the impact of the OC fragment onto the Bencubbin parent body. The heavy nitrogen in the bubbles came from one or several of its carrier phases in Bencubbin, and the water came from hydrous silicates. As formulated by Meibom et al. (Meibom A., Righter K., Chabot N., Dehn G., Antignano A., McCoy T. J., Krot A. N., Zolensky M. E., Petaev M. I. and Keil K. (2005) Shock melts in QUE 94411, Hammadah al Hamra 237, and Bencubbin: remains of the missing matrix? Meteorit. Planet. Sci.40, 1377-1391) these hydrous phases, similar to the hydrated clasts now found in CH and CB_b chondrites, were probably common in the Bencubbin parent body at that time. They were later almost totally destroyed by a large scale shock event, and contributed to form the impact melt that now fills space in between the large clasts of Bencubbin. Our observations indirectly confirm this hypothesis. From our composition measurements, we infer that the silicate part of the impact melt was made in roughly equal proportions of melted phyllosilicates and melted anhydrous silicates. The oxygen isotopic composition of the impact melt is much heavier than that of the silicate clasts, probably reflecting the composition of the water at the origin of the phyllosilicates. The O isotope measurements of the OC inclusion chondrules present some features that seem to be common in OCs: a composition of the chondrule crystals slightly lighter than that of whole chondrules, and one olivine crystal with a very light composition.  相似文献   

Site characterization for CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> geologic storage and vice versa: the Frio brine pilot,Texas, USA as a case study     

Christine Doughty  Barry M. Freifeld  Robert C. Trautz 《Environmental Geology》2008,54(8):1635-1656

Careful site characterization is critical for successful geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO₂) because of the many physical and chemical processes impacting CO₂ movement and containment under field conditions. Traditional site characterization techniques such as geological mapping, geophysical imaging, well logging, core analyses, and hydraulic well testing provide the basis for judging whether or not a site is suitable for CO₂ storage. However, only through the injection and monitoring of CO₂ itself can the coupling between buoyancy flow, geologic heterogeneity, and history-dependent multi-phase flow effects be observed and quantified. CO₂ injection and monitoring can therefore provide a valuable addition to the site-characterization process. Additionally, careful monitoring and verification of CO₂ plume development during the early stages of commercial operation should be performed to assess storage potential and demonstrate permanence. The Frio brine pilot, a research project located in Dayton, Texas (USA) is used as a case study to illustrate the concept of an iterative sequence in which traditional site characterization is used to prepare for CO₂ injection and then CO₂ injection itself is used to further site-characterization efforts, constrain geologic storage potential, and validate understanding of geochemical and hydrological processes. At the Frio brine pilot, in addition to traditional site-characterization techniques, CO₂ movement in the subsurface is monitored by sampling fluid at an observation well, running CO₂-saturation-sensitive well logs periodically in both injection and observation wells, imaging with crosswell seismic in the plane between the injection and observation wells, and obtaining vertical seismic profiles to monitor the CO₂ plume as it migrates beyond the immediate vicinity of the wells. Numerical modeling plays a central role in integrating geological, geophysical, and hydrological field observations.  相似文献   

Local Governance for Social Sustainability: equity as a strategic response to neoliberal constraints in food security initiatives     

Christine Slade  Jennifer Carter 《The Australian geographer》2017,48(3):385-399

Scholarly literature recognises the importance of social sustainability as part of the wider sustainability agenda. A wide array of concepts such as equity, social justice, democratic government, social inclusion, social capital and quality of life are thought to constitute social sustainability. Local governments are charged with delivering social programs and services to their constituency, but market logics and performance-based institutional cultures, along with limited authority and funding, constrain their capacity to respond to new initiatives. We analyse two case studies in Victoria, Australia, to explore how elements of social sustainability are articulated and operationalised within local government. Each case study involved State-level and local government partnerships in health-promotion initiatives to improve food security. Analysis was conducted on 50 primary policy documents, 22 secondary data documents and 27 interviews. Findings reveal that a systems-based or integrated approach to social sustainability was not workable but not completely ineffective. Equity was prioritised by local government in both case studies, and well acknowledged as interconnected with other social goals. Although constrained in its capacity to deliver new initiatives, local government responded to neoliberalising ideologies, as well as its constituency, by strategically focusing on a particular goal, such as equity.  相似文献   

Can Religion Account for Early Animal Domestications? A Critical Assessment of the Cultural Geographic Argument,Based on Near Eastern Archaeological Data*     

Christine M. Rodrigue 《The Professional geographer》1992,44(4):417-430

Cultural geographers often ascribe early animal domestications to the spiritual propitiation practices of ancient peoples, an interpretation that is not widely shared. This paper evaluates the sacrifice theory against Near Eastern archaeological data and refutes the idea that ritual sacrifice could have induced the earliest animal domestications of the Near East. The earliest domestications were the outcome of essentially ecological and economic processes which later gave rise to the sacrificial practices referred to by cultural geographers.  相似文献