Reconstruction of Middle to Late Quaternary sea level using submerged speleothems from the northeastern Yucatán Peninsula     

Simon D. Steidle  Sophie F. Warken  Nils Schorndorf  Julius Förstel  Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau  Gina E. Moseley  Christoph Spötl  Jeronimo Aviles  Wolfgang Stinnesbeck  Norbert Frank 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(7):1190-1200

We examined 14 subaerially deposited speleothems retrieved from submerged caves in the northeastern Yucatán Peninsula (Mexico). These speleothems grew during the Middle to Late Quaternary and were dated by ²³⁰Th-U techniques to provide upper depth limits for past sea levels. We report the first relative sea-level limits for Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 11 and 6, and present new evidence for sea-level oscillations during MIS 5 and early MIS 1. For the latter periods, the origin of growth interruptions is evaluated by combining petrographic methods with trace element analyses. The MIS 5c sea-level highstand probably occurred between 103.94 ± 0.58 ka and 96.82 ± 0.42 ka and must have exceeded -10.8 m (relative to present-day local sea level). The minimum average rate of sea-level fall over a 9.4 ka-long period during the MIS 5e/5d transition is calculated from stalagmite and published coral data at 1.74 ± 0.37 m/ka. For the early Holocene, previous discrepancies with respect to a potential multimetre oscillation of local sea level were found to be challenging to reconcile with the existing speleothem data from the area.  相似文献   

Recent innovations in hazard and risk analysis     

Iovine  Giulio  Aubrecht  Christoph  Cohen  Denis  Pastor  Manuel 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(1):1-17

Air pollution has been a major transboundary problem and a matter of global concern for decades. Climate change and air pollution are closely coupled. Just as air pollution can have adverse effects on human health and ecosystems, it can also impact the earth’s climate. As we enter an era of rapid climate change, the implications for air quality need to be better understood, both for the purpose of air quality management and as one of the societal consequences of climate change. In this study, an attempt has been made to estimate the current air quality to forecast the air quality index of an urban station Kolkata (22.65°N, 88.45°E), India for the next 5 years with neural network models. The annual and seasonal variability in the air quality indicates that the winter season is mostly affected by the pollutants. Air quality index (AQI) is estimated as a geometric mean of the pollutants considered. Different neural network models are attempted to select the best model to forecast the AQI of Kolkata. The meteorological parameters and AQI of the previous day are utilized to train the models to forecast the AQI of the next day during the period from 2003 to 2012. The selection of the best model is made after validation with observation from 2013 to 2015. The radial basis functional (RBF) model is found to be the best network model for the purpose. The RBF model with various architectures is tried to obtain precise forecast with minimum error. RBF of 5:5-91-1:1 structure is found to be the best fit for forecasting the AQI of Kolkata.  相似文献   

Can vein-filling speleothems constrain the timing of deep-seated gravitational slope deformation? A case study from the Vinschgau (Italian Alps)     

Gabriella Koltai  Marc Ostermann  Hai Cheng  Christoph Spötl 《Landslides》2018,15(11):2243-2254

The steep, south facing slopes of the central Vinschgau (Val Venosta, South Tyrol, northern Italy) are characterized by deep-seated compound rockslides affecting 51 km² and reaching beneath the Quaternary valley fill. Morphological features include double ridges, trenches, scarps, and counterscarps, whereby the extent of displacement rises from W to E. Near the toe of these slopes, abundant fractures are present whose orientation and spatial strongly suggest that they are related to the gravitational slope deformations. These fractures host carbonate speleothems which are associated with local tufa occurrences at the surface. Given that the metamorphic host rock is essentially carbonate-free, these carbonate deposits require extensive water-rock interactions to form. Modern springs along the toe of the slope are also mostly supersaturated with respect to calcite and locally also aragonite. The invariant chemical composition, very low tritium levels, and in particular the low oxygen isotope values indicate that this groundwater infiltrates at high elevation and is characterized by a long residence time. On the other hand, local infiltration in the lower reaches of the slope is very limited due to the semiarid climate and is incompatible with the measured groundwater stable isotope composition and the high degree of mineralization. We therefore propose a conceptual model which reconciles the deep-seated gravitational slope deformation with the occurrence of mineralized groundwater and associated carbonate precipitates in fractures near the toe of the slope. These deposits provide a means to place constraints on the timing of rock fracturing and hence the slope movements. U/Th dating of 34 samples from eight sites shows that speleothem deposition started 14.2 ka BP and occurred semi-continuously throughout the Holocene. Thus, gravitational displacements likely commenced with a lag of ~3–4 ka after the deglaciation of the valley, which is also consistent with the few available dates on the onset of other deep-seated slope deformations in the Alps.  相似文献   

A tectono-stratigraphic record of an extensional basin: the Lower Jurassic Ab-Haji Formation of east-central Iran     

Mohammad Ali Salehi  Reza Moussavi-Harami  Asadollah Mahboubi  Franz Theodor Fürsich  Markus Wilmsen  Christoph Heubeck 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2018,111(1-2):51-78

The Lower Jurassic Ab-Haji Formation consists of siliciclastic strata which are widespread and superbly exposed across the Tabas and Lut blocks of east-central Iran. The formation records the geodynamic history of central Iran during the Early Jurassic in the aftermath of the main Cimmerian event (near the Triassic–Jurassic boundary) through its sedimentary facies and stratigraphic architecture and allows palaeogeographic and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions. We measured and studied three well-exposed outcrop sections and identified lithofacies and facies associations (fluvial plain, delta plain, delta front, prodelta, and shallow-marine siliciclastic shelf). The integration of all geological, stratigraphic, and sedimentological data shows a west-to-east continental-to-marine gradient within the Ab-Haji Formation. Based on thickness variations, lateral facies changes, palaeocurrent patterns, and changes in the nature of the basal contact of the Ab-Haji Formation on the Tabas and Lut blocks, we locate the fault-bounded Yazd Block in the west and the Shotori Swell at the eastern edge of the Tabas Block as provenance regions. The pattern of thickness variations, rapid east–west facies changes, and provenance is best explained by a tectonic model invoking large tilted fault blocks in an extensional basin. The basal unit shows distinct increase in grain size at the base of the Ab-Haji Formation, similar to the Shemshak Group of the Alborz Mountains (the base of the Alasht Formation) and the non-marine time-equivalent succession of the Binalud Mountains of northeastern Iran. This grain size pattern may have been caused by rapid source area uplift due to slab break-off of the subducted Iran plate in the course of the Cimmerian collision in east-central Iran.  相似文献   

Late Holocene hydrologic changes in northern New Zealand inferred from stable isotope values of aquatic cellulose in sediments from Lake Pupuke     

Alexander M. Heyng  Christoph Mayr  Andreas Lücke  Holger Wissel  Bernd Striewski 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2014,51(4):485-497

Isotopic records of aquatic cellulose are becoming increasingly important for palaeohydrological reconstructions, but widespread application of this climate proxy is hampered by minerogenic contamination that affects oxygen isotope measures in cellulose. Few records of isotopes in aquatic cellulose are available from palaeoclimate archives in the Southern Hemisphere. In this study, we used a new bulk cellulose extraction method and determined the oxygen (δ¹⁸O) and carbon (δ¹³C) isotope values in cellulose from a Holocene lake sediment core segment (7.2–1.1 cal ka BP) from Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand. Isotope values from modern, potential sources of sedimentary cellulose revealed the aquatic origin of the cellulose extracted from the core, and hence enabled inference of past lake water δ¹⁸O values from the δ¹⁸O of measured cellulose in the core. A shift to a more positive water balance in the lake was identified around 2.8 cal ka BP by a decrease in inferred lake water δ¹⁸O values. At that time, greater epilimnetic primary productivity is indicated by the higher δ¹³C values of sedimentary cellulose. Greater divergence between the δ¹³C values of cellulose and bulk organic matter suggests stronger stratification of the lake, likely caused by greater freshwater input. We discuss a possible link to a solar minimum that occurred at that time.  相似文献   

Inverse modeling of energy transports and budgets of the atmosphere     

Christoph Bollmeyer  Andreas Hense 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(3-4):829-844

The vertically integrated horizontal energy transports and the vertically integrated vertical energy flux divergence from ERA-40 and ISCCP are not in balance assuming a stationary climate as a time mean over several years. The reasons are the inherent uncertainties in each of the respective data sets. We therefore modify them using a variational approach with a discretization in spherical harmonics to obtain consistent values. The variational approach only modifies the smaller yet more uncertain divergent part of the flow, leaving the large rotational part untouched. From these consistent fields we can calculate posterior covariance matrices of the vertically integrated horizontal energy transport and the vertically integrated vertical energy flux divergence, providing a measure of the uncertainty of the previous calculation. We are able to use these posterior covariance matrices to give an estimate of the uncertainty of the zonally and vertically integrated meridional energy transport, which is about 0.25 PW in the tropics and 0.04 PW in high latitudes, as well as for the vertical energy flux divergence of the atmosphere, which ranges from 2.5 to 5 W/m² in the tropics to 15–17 W/m² in high latitudes.  相似文献   

Impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in a small catchment in the Black Forest, Germany     

Christoph Neukum  Rafig Azzam 《Hydrogeology Journal》2012,20(3):547-560

Temporal and spatial changes of the hydrological cycle are the consequences of climate variations. In addition to changes in surface runoff with possible floods and droughts, climate variations may affect groundwater through alteration of groundwater recharge with consequences for future water management. This study investigates the impact of climate change, according to the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2 and B1, on groundwater recharge in the catchment area of a fissured aquifer in the Black Forest, Germany, which has sparse groundwater data. The study uses a water-balance model considering a conceptual approach for groundwater-surface water exchange. River discharge data are used for model calibration and validation. The results show temporal and spatial changes in groundwater recharge. Groundwater recharge is progressively reduced for summer during the twenty-first century. The annual sum of groundwater recharge is affected negatively for scenarios A1B and A2. On average, groundwater recharge during the twenty-first century is reduced mainly for the lower parts of the valley and increased for the upper parts of the valley and the crests. The reduced storage of water as snow during winter due to projected higher air temperatures causes an important relative increase in rainfall and, therefore, higher groundwater recharge and river discharge.  相似文献   

The IWAS-ToolBox: Software coupling for an integrated water resources management   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0  

Thomas Kalbacher  Jens-Olaf Delfs  Haibing Shao  Wenqing Wang  Marc Walther  Luis Samaniego  Christoph Schneider  Rohini Kumar  Andreas Musolff  Florian Centler  Feng Sun  Anke Hildebrandt  Rudolf Liedl  Dietrich Borchardt  Peter Krebs  Olaf Kolditz 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,65(5):1367-1380

Numerical modeling of interacting flow and transport processes between different hydrological compartments, such as the atmosphere/land surface/vegetation/soil/groundwater systems, is essential for understanding the comprehensive processes, especially if quantity and quality of water resources are in acute danger, like e.g. in semi-arid areas and regions with environmental contaminations. The computational models used for system and scenario analysis in the framework of an integrated water resources management are rapidly developing instruments. In particular, advances in computational mathematics have revolutionized the variety and the nature of the problems that can be addressed by environmental scientists and engineers. It is certainly true that for each hydro-compartment, there exists many excellent simulation codes, but traditionally their development has been isolated within the different disciplines. A new generation of coupled tools based on the profound scientific background is needed for integrated modeling of hydrosystems. The objective of the IWAS-ToolBox is to develop innovative methods to combine and extend existing modeling software to address coupled processes in the hydrosphere, especially for the analysis of hydrological systems in sensitive regions. This involves, e.g. the provision of models for the prediction of water availability, water quality and/or the ecological situation under changing natural and socio-economic boundary conditions such as climate change, land use or population growth in the future.  相似文献   

Suitability of Existing Numerical Model Codes and Thermodynamic Databases for the Prognosis of Calcite Dissolution Processes in Near-Surface Sediments Due to a CO2 Leakage Investigated by Column Experiments     

Christoph Haase  Andreas Dahmke  Markus Ebert  Dirk Schäfer  Frank Dethlefsen 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2014,20(6):639-661

Among the risks of CO₂ storage is the potential of CO₂ leakage into overlaying formations and near-surface potable aquifers. Through a leakage, the CO₂ can intrude into protected groundwater resources, which can lead to groundwater acidification followed by potential mobilisation of heavy metals and other trace metals through mineral dissolution or ion exchange processes. The prediction of pH buffer reactions in the formations overlaying a CO₂ storage site is essential for assessing the impact of CO₂ leakages in terms of trace metal mobilisation. For buffering the pH-value, calcite dissolution is one of the most important mechanisms. Although calcite dissolution has been studied for decades, experiments conducted under elevated CO₂ partial pressures are rare. Here, the first study for column experiments is presented applying CO₂ partial pressures from 6 to 43 bars and realising a near-natural flow regime. Geochemical calculations of calcite dissolution kinetics were conducted using PHREEQC together with different thermodynamic databases. Applying calcite surface areas, which were previously acquired by N₂-BET or calculated based on grain diameters, respectively, to the rate laws according to Plummer et al. (Am J Sci 278:179–216, doi:10.2475/ajs.278.2.179, 1978) or Palandri and Kharaka (US Geol Surv Open file Rep 2004–1068:71, 2004) in the numerical simulations led to an overestimation of the calcite dissolution rate by up to three orders of magnitude compared to the results of the column experiments. Only reduction of the calcite surface area in the simulations as a fitting procedure allowed reproducing the experimental results. A reason may be that the diffusion boundary layer (DBL), which depends on the groundwater flow velocity and develops at the calcite grain surface separating it from the bulk of the solution, has to be regarded: The DBL leads to a decrease in the calcite dissolution rate under natural laminar flow conditions compared to turbulent mixing in traditional batch experiments. However, varying the rate constants by three orders of magnitudes in a field scale PHREEQC model simulating a CO₂ leakage produced minor variations in the pH buffering through calcite dissolution. This justifies the use of equilibrium models when calculating the calcite dissolution in CO₂ leakage scenarios for porous aquifers and slow or moderate groundwater flow velocities. However, the selection of the thermodynamic database has an impact on the dissolved calcium concentration, leading to an uncertainty in the simulation results. The resulting uncertainty, which applies also to the calculated propagation of an aquifer zone depleted in calcite through dissolution, seems negligible for shallow aquifers of approximately 60 m depth, but amounts to 35 % of the calcium concentration for aquifers at a depth of approximately 400 m.  相似文献   

Generalized integer aperture estimation for partial GNSS ambiguity fixing     

Andreas Brack  Christoph Günther 《Journal of Geodesy》2014,88(5):479-490

In satellite navigation, the key to high precision is to make use of the carrier-phase measurements. The periodicity of the carrier-phase, however, leads to integer ambiguities. Often, resolving the full set of ambiguities cannot be accomplished for a given reliability constraint. In that case, it can be useful to resolve a subset of ambiguities. The selection of the subset should be based not only on the stochastic system model but also on the actual measurements from the tracking loops. This paper presents a solution to the problem of joint subset selection and ambiguity resolution. The proposed method can be interpreted as a generalized version of the class of integer aperture estimators. Two specific realizations of this new class of estimators are presented, based on different acceptance tests. Their computation requires only a single tree search, and can be efficiently implemented, e.g., in the framework of the well-known LAMBDA method. Numerical simulations with double difference measurements based on Galileo E1 signals are used to evaluate the performance of the introduced estimation schemes under a given reliability constraint. The results show a clear gain of partial fixing in terms of the probability of correct ambiguity resolution, leading to improved baseline estimates.  相似文献