2012年早春广西高架雷暴冰雹天气过程分析   总被引：11，自引：2，他引：9  

农孟松  赖珍权  梁俊聪  董良淼  刘国忠 《气象》2013,39(7):874-882

利用常规观测资料和雷达资料,对2012年早春广西高架强雷暴冰雹天气过程进行分析,得出以下结论:(1)冰雹伴随雷暴发生在地面锋后约1000 km,边界层为冷高压控制.850 hPa风速较小,700 hPa以上层有强急流,700～850 hPa有强的垂直风切变,500 hPa高空冷槽东移为对流的发生提供触发条件.(2)冰雹发生在850 hPa切变线南北两侧约200 km范围,等压面锋区强度大;高空槽前正负变温使700～500 hPa垂直方向温度差大,导致层结对流不稳定性加大.当500 hPa低槽移至强锋区上空时,锋面坡度变陡,上升运动加强,不稳定性增大,使得冰胚在对流层中层增长而形成冰雹.(3)风暴追踪信息显示风暴生成高度高,在垂直方向上倾斜增长;质心均在5～6 km,风暴生成后,随着时间的推移逐渐向低层发展,最大反射率以及液态含水量均不大,具有明显高架雷暴特征.  相似文献   

A STUDY ON SATELLITE DATA ASSIMILATION WITH DIFFERENT ATOVS IN TYPHOON NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS     

董海萍  李兴武  郭卫东  高太长 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2013,19(3):242-252

Based on the newly developed Weather Research and Forecasting model(WRF)and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation(3DVAR)system,this study constructed twelve experiments to explore the impact of direct assimilation of different ATOVS radiance on the intensity and track simulation of super-typhoon Fanapi(2010)using a data assimilation cycle method.The result indicates that the assimilation of ATOVS radiance could improve typhoon intensity effectively.The average bias of the central sea level pressure(CSLP)drops to 18 hPa,compared to 42 hPa in the experiment without data assimilation.However,the influence due to different radiance data is not significant,which is less than 6hPa on average,implying limited improvement from sole assimilation of ATOVS radiance.The track issue is studied in the following steps.First,the radiance from the same sensor of different satellites could produce different effect.For the AMSU-A,NOAA-15 and NOAA-18,they produce equivalent improvement,whereas NOAA-16 produces slightly poor effect.And for the AMSU-B,NOAA-15 and NOAA-16,they produce equivalent and more positive effect than that provided by the AMSU-A.Second,the assimilation radiance from different sensors of the identical satellites could also produce different effect.The assimilation of AMSU-B produces the largest improvement,while the ameliorating effect of HIRS/3assimilation is inferior to that of AMSU-B assimilation,while the AMSU-A assimilation exhibits the poorest improvement.Moreover,the simultaneous assimilation of different radiance could not produce further improvement.Finally,the experiments of simultaneous assimilation radiance from multiple satellites indicate that such assimilation may lead to negative effect due to accumulative bias when adding various radiance data into the data assimilation system.Thus the assimilation of ATOVS radiance from a single satellite may perform better than that from two or three satellites.  相似文献   

亚洲区域海—陆—气相互作用对全球和亚洲气候变化的作用研究进展   总被引：13，自引：4，他引：9  

李建平  任荣彩  齐义泉  王法明  陆日宇  张培群  江志红  段晚锁  于非  杨永增 《大气科学》2013,37(2):518-538

围绕全球变化研究国家重大研究计划项目“亚洲区域海—陆—气相互作用机理及其在全球变化中的作用”预定的总体研究内容和科学目标,项目执行两年多以来,取得了一系列阶段性科研成果.关于气候动力学方面,项目揭示了热带印度洋—西太平洋暖池的海温变化是全球热带气候年代际变化的重要驱动力,是全球尺度副热带干旱的重要调控器;发现热带东太平洋海温存在冷舌模态,它是一个海气耦合模态,阐明在全球变暖背景下其对ENSO型态变异的作用及影响东亚气候的机理;揭示了青藏高原热力强迫的异常特征及其气候效应;提出了水平非均匀基流中行星波传播的理论,研究了其在不同东亚夏季风背景下的传播特征.关于气候预测方法方面,提出了若干有物理基础的气候预测方法,如尺度分离的降尺度预测新方法、基于北大西洋涛动(NAO)-ENSO的东亚夏季风预测模型、基于南半球环状模的东亚气候预测模型等,为业务部门提供了重要参考.关于观测方面,项目在亚洲区域海气补充观测和海洋资料同化方面也取得突出进展,成功进行了南海18°N断面海洋综合观测,为形成我国第一条南海断面长期海气观测打下了基础.在国际合作方面,项目还继续推动和领导了“亚洲季风年”(AMY2007-2012)与“东亚气候模拟”国际计划,提升了我国在该领域的国际地位.  相似文献   

Investigation on semi-direct and indirect climate effects of fossil fuel black carbon aerosol over China     

Bingliang Zhuang  Qian Liu  Tijian Wang  Changqin Yin  Shu Li  Min Xie  Fei Jiang  Huiting Mao 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,114(3-4):651-672

A Regional Climate Chemistry Modeling System that employed empirical parameterizations of aerosol-cloud microphysics was applied to investigate the spatial distribution, radiative forcing (RF), and climate effects of black carbon (BC) over China. Results showed high levels of BC in Southwest, Central, and East China, with maximum surface concentrations, column burden, and optical depth (AOD) up to 14 μg?m^?3, 8 mg?m^?2, and 0.11, respectively. Black carbon was found to result in a positive RF at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) due to its direct effect while a negative RF due to its indirect effect. The regional-averaged direct and indirect RF of BC in China was about +0.81 and ?0.95 W?m^?2, respectively, leading to a net RF of ?0.15 W?m^?2 at the TOA. The BC indirect RF was larger than its direct RF in South China. Due to BC absorption of solar radiation, cloudiness was decreased by 1.33 %, further resulting in an increase of solar radiation and subsequently a surface warming over most parts of China, which was opposite to BC’s indirect effect. Further, the net effect of BC might cause a decrease of precipitation of ?7.39 % over China. Investigations also suggested large uncertainties and non-linearity in BC’s indirect effect on regional climate. Results suggested that: (a) changes in cloud cover might be more affected by BC’s direct effect, while changes in surface air temperature and precipitation might be influenced by BC’s indirect effect; and (b) BC second indirect effect might have more influence on cloud cover and water content compared to first indirect effect. This study highlighted a substantial role of BC on regional climate changes.  相似文献   

Evaluation of grid-point atmospheric model of IAP LASG version 2 (GAMIL2)     

李立娟  王斌  董理  刘利  申思  胡宁  孙文奇  王勇  黄文誉  史湘军  普业  杨广文 《大气科学进展》2013,30(3):855-867

The Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG version 2 (GAMIL2) has been developed through upgrading the deep convection parameterization, cumulus cloud fraction and two-moment cloud microphysical scheme, as well as changing some of the large uncertain parameters. In this paper, its performance is evaluated, and the results suggest that there are some significant improvements in GAMIL2 compared to the previous version GAMIL1, for example, the components of the energy budget at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface; the geographic distribution of shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF); the ratio of stratiform versus total rainfall; the response of atmospheric circulation to the tropical ocean; and the eastward propagation and spatiotemporal structures of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Furthermore, the indirect aerosols effect (IAE) is -0.94 W m-2, within the range of 0 to -2 W m-2 given by the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007). The influence of uncertain parameters on the MJO and radiation fluxes is also discussed.  相似文献   

Steric sea level change in twentieth century historical climate simulation and IPCC-RCP8.5 scenario projection: A comparison of two versions of FGOALS model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

董璐  周天军 《大气科学进展》2013,30(3):841-854

To reveal the steric sea level change in 20th century historical climate simulations and future climate change projections under the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, the results of two versions of LASG/IAP’s Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model (FGOALS) are analyzed. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean dynamic sea level features, with a spatial pattern correlation coefficient of 0.97 with the observation. Characteristics of steric sea level changes in the 20th century historical climate simulations and RCP8.5 scenario projections are investigated. The results show that, in the 20th century, negative trends covered most parts of the global ocean. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, global-averaged steric sea level exhibits a pronounced rising trend throughout the 21st century and the general rising trend appears in most parts of the global ocean. The magnitude of the changes in the 21st century is much larger than that in the 20th century. By the year 2100, the global-averaged steric sea level anomaly is 18 cm and 10 cm relative to the year 1850 in the second spectral version of FGOALS (FGOALS-s2) and the second grid-point version of FGOALS (FGOALS-g2), respectively. The separate contribution of the thermosteric and halosteric components from various ocean layers is further evaluated. In the 20th century, the steric sea level changes in FGOALS-s2 (FGOALS-g2) are largely attributed to the thermosteric (halosteric) component relative to the pre-industrial control run. In contrast, in the 21st century, the thermosteric component, mainly from the upper 1000 m, dominates the steric sea level change in both models under the RCP8.5 scenario. In addition, the steric sea level change in the marginal sea of China is attributed to the thermosteric component.  相似文献   

亚洲-太平洋涛动与中国南方地区1月降水异常的关系     

刘舸  赵平  董才桂 《气象学报》2013,71(3):462-475

利用NCEP、ERA-40再分析资料和中国160个观测站逐月降水资料,分析了同期和前期亚洲-太平洋涛动(APO)与中国南方地区冬季1月降水异常的关系,并讨论了相应的联系机制.研究发现,1月亚洲-太平洋涛动指数能够很好地反映同期中国南方地区降水异常.亚洲-太平洋涛动的异常变化可能影响对流层低层位势高度场,进而通过影响亚洲中、低纬度地区的对流层低层风场与中国南方地区降水紧密联系.当亚洲-太平洋涛动指数偏低(高)时,对应在东亚南部及其邻近海域对流层低层位势高度偏高(低),东太平洋位势高度偏低(高).相应地,南海以及华南沿海地区为异常西南(东北)风控制,且该异常风向北逐渐减弱,进而在中国南方地区辐合(辐散),这既有(不)利于暖湿气流向中国南方地区输送,同时也造成了该地区的水汽辐合(辐散),从而导致降水偏多(少).亚洲-太平洋涛动具有很好的持续性,上一年10月亚洲-太平洋涛动异常可一直持续至当年1月,表现出连续的显着相关特征.因此,其与中国南方地区1月降水异常也具有显着联系,可以作为指示1月中国南方地区降水多寡的一个前兆因子.  相似文献   

Tidal Evolution of the Kepler Candidate Two-planet Systems     

DONG Yao  JI Jiang-hui 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2014

The tidal evolution of ten Kepler candidate two-planet systems is investigated by using the general secular perturbation theory, and then a general picture of tidal evolution for these systems is described. Taking the KOI 1239 system as an example, the tidal effect of the system is studied in detail, the results indicate that the dissipative term of the tidal effect causes the attenuation of planets’ orbital eccentricities, and it plays a dominant role in the process of orbital evolution, however, the conservative term of the tidal effect and the relativistic effect may damp the excitation of the eccentricity of the inner planet under the secular perturbation of the outer planet. In addition, the process of tidal evolution is also affected by both the initial eccentricity of the outer planet and the planet's tidal dissipation coeffcient. At the same time, the numerical simulation on the tidal evolution of the KOI 1239 system is also made, and the numerical results are consistent with those of general secular perturbation theory.  相似文献   

共线SPDC下剩余脉冲泵浦光滤光特性研究     

白云  权润爱  张羽  侯飞雁  刘涛  张首刚  董瑞芳 《时间频率学报》2014,(1):1-9

从宽带脉冲泵浦光的光谱及滤光片的滤光特性参数出发,分析了自发参量下转换（SPDC）产生纠缠光源的系统中各类滤光片对剩余脉冲泵浦光的滤除效率。分析结果表明,适当组合不同类型的滤光片可以有效地滤除剩余脉冲泵浦光,并从实验上验证了分析结果的正确性。该研究为脉冲泵浦光条件下SPDC过程产生的纠缠光源的有效测量提供了理论指导和实验验证。  相似文献   

一种载人小行星探测轨道优化设计方法     

甘庆波  张扬  朱正帆  韩威华  董鑫 《天文学报》2014,(6)

给出了一种基于变比冲核电推进载人飞船探测小行星的轨道优化设计方法.首先基于双脉冲单圈Lambert轨道转移,对地球出发段和返回段进行搜索剪枝,再从两个可行区域中优选最佳飞行路径.设定"推进-滑行-推进"的分段飞行策略,以工质消耗最少为指标,利用混合法优化核电推进飞行轨迹,最后以分段优化参数为初值,基于整体任务约束将全飞行过程转化为非线性优化问题,将各飞行段进行拼接,获得整体参数优化解,并给出了数值和图形结果.  相似文献