Avalanche Risk During Backcountry Skiing – An Analysis of Risk Factors     

Harpa Grímsdóttir  David Mcclung 《Natural Hazards》2006,39(1):127-153

Skier-triggered avalanches are the main cause of avalanche accidents in backcountry skiing. The risk of accidents during backcountry skiing was analysed statistically and related to factors such as elevation level, aspect, stability rating and the time of the year. The analysis is based on a database about terrain usage and avalanche accidents from a large heli-skiing operator in Canada, which makes it possible to study the conditional probability of accidents given the recorded pattern of terrain usage. This study shows that the historical risk of accidentally triggering an avalanche greater than size 1 depends highly on the stability rating, with the highest risk occurring during “poor” stability. The risk is greater at high elevations, and it is lower during the late season than earlier on. Skier risk does not depend as much on aspect as may be indicated from avalanche data alone. However, it is relatively high in the N–NE–E sector. These factors are not independent of each other and therefore analyses of combined factors were also performed. Questionnaires and interviews were used to gain knowledge about the terrain selection of professional mountain guides. These results indicate that when selecting terrain, guides first look at the overall shape and size of the terrain, but avalanche history of terrain and inclination are also important factors. Finally, remarks in avalanche reports were analysed, and common human factors identified.  相似文献   

Multicollinearity and correlation among local regression coefficients in geographically weighted regression   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5  

David Wheeler  Michael Tiefelsdorf 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2005,7(2):161-187

Present methodological research on geographically weighted regression (GWR) focuses primarily on extensions of the basic GWR model, while ignoring well-established diagnostics tests commonly used in standard global regression analysis. This paper investigates multicollinearity issues surrounding the local GWR coefficients at a single location and the overall correlation between GWR coefficients associated with two different exogenous variables. Results indicate that the local regression coefficients are potentially collinear even if the underlying exogenous variables in the data generating process are uncorrelated. Based on these findings, applied GWR research should practice caution in substantively interpreting the spatial patterns of local GWR coefficients. An empirical disease-mapping example is used to motivate the GWR multicollinearity problem. Controlled experiments are performed to systematically explore coefficient dependency issues in GWR. These experiments specify global models that use eigenvectors from a spatial link matrix as exogenous variables.This study was supported by grant number 1 R1 CA95982-01, Geographic-Based Research in Cancer Control and Epidermiology, from the National Cancer Institute. The author thank the anonymous reviewers and the editor for their helpful comments.  相似文献   

Geocomputation, Geodemographics and Resource Allocation for Local Policing   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

David I Ashby  Paul A Longley 《Transactions in GIS》2005,9(1):53-72

The field of geodemographics is one of the most fertile applications areas of geocomputation research. Geodemographic profiles of the characteristics of individuals and small areas are pivotal to tactical and strategic resource management in many areas of business, and are becoming similarly central to efficient and effective deployment of resources by public services. In this context, this paper describes research that has been developed in partnership with the Devon and Cornwall Constabulary and Institute of Criminal Justice Studies (ICJS) at the University of Portsmouth to assess the potential use of geodemographics as a policing tool. Crime, the fear of crime and the efficacy of public services are issues that have moved to the top of the UK political agenda and have long been matters of serious public concern. This paper considers the ways in which police forces might use geodemographics to better deploy resources at a variety of spatial scales in England and Wales.  相似文献   

Combined Digital Photogrammetry and Time-of-Flight Laser Scanning for Monitoring Cliff Evolution   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Michael  Lim  David N.  Petley  Nicholas J.  Rosser  Robert J.  Allison  Antony J.  Long  David  Pybus 《The Photogrammetric Record》2005,20(110):109-129

Although cliffs form approximately 75% of the world's coastline, the understanding of the processes through which they evolve remains limited because of a lack of quantitative data on the morphological changes they undergo. In this paper the combination of terrestrial time-of-flight laser scanning with high-resolution digital photogrammetry is examined to generate high-quality data-sets pertaining to the geomorphic processes governing cliff development. The study was undertaken on a section of hard rock cliffs in North Yorkshire, UK, which has been monitored over a 12-month period. High-density, laser-scanned point clouds have been used to produce an accurate representation of these complex surfaces, free from the optical variations that degrade photographic data. These data-sets have been combined with high-resolution photographic monitoring, resampled with the fixed accuracies of the terrestrial laser survey, to generate a new approach to recording the volumetric changes in complex coastal cliffs. This has led to significant improvements in the understanding of the activity patterns of coastal cliffs.  相似文献   

High Resolution Earth Imaging for Geospatial Information     

David A.  Holland 《The Photogrammetric Record》2005,20(112):384-386

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1957-1996台风对中国降水的影响   总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15  

Ren Fumin  Byron Gleason  David Easterling 《大气科学进展》2002,19(5):943-952

台风活动中国气候的重要特点之一，它能带来大量降水并造成严重的财产损失。在一些地区，台风降水甚至可以在总降水量中占很大比例。本文目的是研究那些对中国产生影响的台风并重点关注台风对中国降水的影响。文中涉及四个方面的工作。首先，研究了影响中国台风的频率，结果表明台风影响的主要季节为5－11月，尤其以7－9月频繁；在过去40年中影响台风的频率没有明显的变化趋势。第二，对台站台风降水的气候特征分析结果显示，海南和东南沿海地区受台风的影响最大，而且长江以南大部地区每年都受到台风的影响；另外，影响区域大部分地区的台风降水在过去40年中表现出下降的趋势，但是只有东北地区南部这种趋势是显著的。第三，对台风个例的分析表明，个例降水总量和影响面积之间存在着显著的线性关系。最后，对台风造成的中国范围降水总量进行了分析，初步结果显示台风降水总量在1957－1996年间显著减少。  相似文献   

Bury, Burn or Both: A Two-for-One Deal on Biomass Carbon and Energy     

David W. Keith  James S. Rhodes 《Climatic change》2002,54(3):375-377

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A Stabilizing Dynamical Influence in the Deep Mantle due to the Radiative Thermal Conductivity and a high temperature at the Core-Mantle Boundary     

Erik O. Sevre  Fabien Dubuffet  David A. Yuen  Emma S. G. Rainey 《Visual Geosciences》2002,7(1):1-4

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Nature, age, and tectonic setting of granitoid-hosted, orogenic gold deposits of the Jiaodong Peninsula, eastern North China craton, China   总被引：28，自引：0，他引：28  

Yumin Qiu  David I. Groves  Neal J. McNaughton  Liang-gen Wang  Taihe Zhou 《Mineralium Deposita》2002,37(3-4):283-305

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Marymia: an Archean, amphibolite facies-hosted, orogenic lode-gold deposit overprinted by Palaeoproterozoic orogenesis and base metal mineralisation, Western Australia     

Noreen M. Vielreicher  John R. Ridley  David I. Groves 《Mineralium Deposita》2002,37(8):737-764

The Marymia gold deposit, comprising two orebodies, Keillor 1 and Keillor 2, is at the northern end of the Plutonic Well greenstone belt in the Marymia Inlier, in the southern Capricorn Orogen, just north of the Yilgarn craton. The Marymia Inlier is a discrete fault-bounded Archean gneiss-granitoid-greenstone domain surrounded by sedimentary basins that were formed and variably metamorphosed and deformed during several Palaeoproterozoic orogenic cycles. The greenstone sequence at Marymia is stratigraphically and geochemically similar to greenstone sequences in the Yilgarn craton, but was subjected to further deformation and metamorphism in the Palaeoproterozoic. Late Archean deformation (D1-D2) was ductile to brittle-ductile in style, whereas Palaeoproterozoic deformation was predominantly brittle. Equilibrium mineral assemblages indicate that peak amphibolite-facies metamorphism (540-575 °C, <3 kb) was overprinted by greenschist-facies metamorphism (300-360 °C). Petrographic textures indicate that prograde metamorphism was coeval with D1-D2, with peak metamorphism early to syn D2. Gold mineralisation at Marymia is hosted in metamorphosed tholeiitic basalts and banded iron formation. On a gross scale, the distribution of gold is controlled by D2 folds and shear zones. Lithological contacts with strong rheological or chemical contrasts provide local controls. Gold-related alteration comprises subtle millimetre- to centimetre-wide zones of silicification with variable amounts of quartz, hornblende, biotite, K-feldspar, plagioclase, calcite/siderite, scheelite, titanite, epidote, sulfide and telluride minerals. Quartz veins are generally narrow and discontinuous with low total volume of quartz. Gold is sited in the wall rock, at vein salvedges or within stringers of wall rock within veins. There are two distinct opaque-mineral assemblages: pyrite-pyrrhotite-chalcopyrite-galena and hessite-petzite-altaite-Bi-telluride-galena. Ore samples are variably enriched in Ag, Te, Pb, W, Cu, S and Fe reflecting heterogeneity of the ore mineralogy. Structural timing and temperature of formation of alteration and ore minerals support deposition of gold during late peak amphibolite-facies metamorphism from neutral to alkaline (pH=5-6), moderately oxidising (log P_O2,-21-22) and CO₂-bearing (X_CO2 Ƹ.2) fluids. The total sulfur content of the fluid is estimated at 1mDS. Lead isotope compositions support derivation of lead from within the local greenstone sequence. Gold lodes were deformed by faults and shear zones in the Palaeoproterozoic, with only limited remobilisation. Subeconomic, carbonate vein- and breccia-hosted base metal mineralisation is locally hosted within Palaeoproterozoic fault zones, which clearly cut gold lodes. Base-metal-related alteration is characterised by intense carbonatisation, chloritisation, and albitisation of the mafic host rocks. Mineral assemblages are consistent with formation at greenschist facies conditions. Lead isotope compositions support crystallisation at ca. 1.7 Ga from lead that is similar in composition to earlier gold-related galena.  相似文献