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81.
SeaMARC II and Sea Beam bathymetric data are combined to create a chart of the East Pacific Rise (EPR) from 8°N to 18°N reaching at least 1 Ma onto the rise flanks in most places. Based on these data as well as SeaMARC II side scan sonar mosaics we offer the following observations and conclusions. The EPR is segmented by ridge axis discontinuities such that the average segment lengths in the area are 360 km for first-order segments, 140 km for second-order segments, 52 km for third-order segments, and 13 km for fourth-order segments. All three first-order discontinuities are transform faults. Where the rise axis is a bathymetric high, second-order discontinuities are overlapping spreading centers (OSCs), usually with a distinctive 3:1 overlap to offset ratio. The off-axis discordant zones created by the OSCs are V-shaped in plan view indicating along axis migration at rates of 40–100 mm yr–1. The discordant zones consist of discrete abandoned ridge tips and overlap basins within a broad wake of anomalously deep bathymetry and high crustal magnetization. The discordant zones indicate that OSCs have commenced at different times and have migrated in different directions. This rules out any linkage between OSCs and a hot spot reference frame. The spacing of abandoned ridges indicates a recurrence interval for ridge abandonment of 20,000–200,000 yrs for OSCs with an average interval of approximately 100,000 yrs. Where the rise axis is a bathymetric low, the only second-order discontinuity mapped is a right-stepping jog in the axial rift valley. The discordant zone consists of a V-shaped wake of elongated deeps and interlocking ridges, similar to the wakes of second-order discontinuities on slow-spreading ridges. At the second-order segment level, long segments tend to lengthen at the expense of neighboring shorter segments. This can be understood if segments can be approximated by cracks, because the propagation force at a crack tip is directly proportional to crack length.There has been a counter-clockwise change in the direction of spreading on the EPR between 8 and 18° N during the last 1 Ma. The cumulative change has been 3°–6°, producing opening across the Orozco and Siqueiros transform faults and closing across the Clipperton transform. The instantaneous present-day Cocos-Pacific pole is located at approximately 38.4° N, 109.5° W with an angular rotation rate of 2.10° m.y.–1 This change in spreading direction explains the predominance of right-stepping discontinuities of orders 2–4 along the Siqueiros-Clipperton and Orozco-Rivera segments, but does not explain other aspects of segmentation which are thought to be linked to patterns of melt supply to the ridge axis.There are 23 significant seamount chains in the mapped area and most are created very near the spreading axis. Nearly all of the seamount chains have trends which fall between the absolute and relative plate motion vectors.  相似文献   
82.
Seasonal Forecasts of the Summer 2016 Yangtze River Basin Rainfall   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history,and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods.Dams along the river help to manage flood waters,and are important sources of electricity for the region.Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit.Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services.The teleconnection from El Ni ?no to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong El Ni ?no in winter 2015/16 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system.This paper therefore presents a case study of a real-time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin,building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast.A simple forecasting methodology is presented,in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations.Its performance for2016 is discussed.The heavy rainfall in the May–June–July period was correctly forecast well in advance.August saw anomalously low rainfall,and the forecasts for the June–July–August period correctly showed closer to average levels.The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin.Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts,and highlight areas for future improvements.  相似文献   
83.
In 2002, 13 years after the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), 39 selected sites in Prince William Sound (PWS) were re-surveyed following established shoreline cleanup assessment team (SCAT) field observation procedures to document surface and sub-surface oiling conditions in shoreline sediments and to compare results with those from previous Shoreline Cleanup Assessment Team (SCAT) surveys and other surveys in PWS. The selected sites are locations where EVOS oil persisted in 1992, at the time the Federal and State On-Scene Coordinators determined that the cleanup was complete and that further cleanup activities would provide no net environmental benefit. These sites had been included in a 2001 NOAA survey of shoreline oiling conditions and account for 88% of the sub-surface oil residues (SSO) oil documented by that study. The 2002 field survey found isolated occurrences of residual EVOS surface oil residues (SO) in the form of weathered asphalt pavement at 15 of the 39 sites. This residual SO typically consisted of asphalt in mixed sand/gravel substrate, located within a wave shadow effect created by boulders or bedrock in the upper intertidal to supratidal zone. Residual SO, expressed as a continuous oil cover, was less than 200 m(2) within the approximately 111,120 m(2) surveyed. A total of 1182 pits were dug at locations where SSO residues were present in 1992. Six of the 39 sites and 815 (68%) of the pits contained no residual SSO. Eighty-three percent of pits with SSO residues were found primarily in middle to upper intertidal locations. SSO residues commonly occurred in a discontinuous approximately 3 cm thick band 5-10 cm below the boulder/cobble or pebble/gravel veneer. The SO and SSO occurrences in the 2002 survey closely match the locations where they were found in 1992 and earlier surveys; however, in 2002 residual SSO patches are more discontinuous and thinner than they were in the earlier surveys. These sites are biased toward SSO persistence; those that have SSO residues represent less than 0.5% of the originally oiled shorelines in PWS. Despite evidence of continued oil weathering, both at the surface and in the sub-surface, it is clear that the natural cleaning processes at these particular locations are slow. The slow weathering rates are a consequence of the oil residue being incorporated in finer sediments (fine sand, silt, mix) and isolated from active weathering processes as boulders and outcrops, shallow bedrock asperities, or boulder-armoring create wave shadows and limit effective physical action on shorelines.  相似文献   
84.
Seismic anisotropy which is common in shale and fractured rocks will cause travel-time and amplitude discrepancy in different propagation directions. For microseismic monitoring which is often implemented in shale or fractured rocks, seismic anisotropy needs to be carefully accounted for in source location and mechanism determination. We have developed an efficient finite-difference full waveform modeling tool with an arbitrary moment tensor source. The modeling tool is suitable for simulating wave propagation in anisotropic media for microseismic monitoring. As both dislocation and non-double-couple source are often observed in microseismic monitoring, an arbitrary moment tensor source is implemented in our forward modeling tool. The increments of shear stress are equally distributed on the staggered grid to implement an accurate and symmetric moment tensor source. Our modeling tool provides an efficient way to obtain the Green’s function in anisotropic media, which is the key of anisotropic moment tensor inversion and source mechanism characterization in microseismic monitoring. In our research, wavefields in anisotropic media have been carefully simulated and analyzed in both surface array and downhole array. The variation characteristics of travel-time and amplitude of direct P- and S-wave in vertical transverse isotropic media and horizontal transverse isotropic media are distinct, thus providing a feasible way to distinguish and identify the anisotropic type of the subsurface. Analyzing the travel-times and amplitudes of the microseismic data is a feasible way to estimate the orientation and density of the induced cracks in hydraulic fracturing. Our anisotropic modeling tool can be used to generate and analyze microseismic full wavefield with full moment tensor source in anisotropic media, which can help promote the anisotropic interpretation and inversion of field data.  相似文献   
85.
Wireline logs and vertical seismic profile data were acquired in two boreholes intersecting the main mineralized zone at the Cu–Au New Afton porphyry deposit, Canada, with the objectives of imaging lithological contacts, fault zones that may have acted as conduits that channelled the mineralization, and alteration zones. Log data provide physical rock properties for the main lithologies and alteration zones. Calliper logs reveal many faults and caved-in zones generally indicating rocks with low integrity at the borehole wall. The preponderance of these zones, as indicated by the logs, suggests that their response may dominate the seismic-reflection wavefield. Outside fault zones, compressional and shear-wave velocities exhibit significant variability due to porosity, the heterogeneity of volcanic fragmental rocks and alteration. Distributed acoustic sensing was used to acquire vertical seismic profiling data in the two boreholes surveyed with wireline logs. Straight and helically wound fibre-optic cables housed standard fibres and a fibre engineered to increase the intensity of backscattering at the distributed acoustic sensing interrogator. Standard and engineered optical fibres placed in the two boreholes were daisy-chained together to form two 5-km-long continuous fibres that were interrogated at once with two interrogators. A new generation of interrogator connected to the engineered fibres provided field data with lower noise level and higher signal-to-noise ratio. These data with higher signal-to-noise ratio from straight fibre-optic cable were processed and used for depth imaging. Depth images benefitted from new migration weights that account for the directional sensitivity of the straight fibre-optic cable and limit the extent of migration artefacts. Migration results show several reflectors with shallow dips to the northwest, some explained by faults intersecting the surveyed boreholes. The main sub-vertical lithological and alteration contacts at New Afton generated downgoing reflections that were not considered in the migration.  相似文献   
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88.
Assessing the skill of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in decadal hindcasts (i.e. retrospective predictions) is hampered by a lack of observations for verification. Models are therefore needed to reconstruct the historical AMOC variability. Here we show that ten recent oceanic syntheses provide a common signal of AMOC variability at 45°N, with an increase from the 1960s to the mid-1990s and a decrease thereafter although they disagree on the exact magnitude. This signal correlates with observed key processes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, sub-polar gyre strength, Atlantic sea surface temperature dipole, and Labrador Sea convection that are thought to be related to the AMOC. Furthermore, we find potential predictability of the mid-latitude AMOC for the first 3–6 year means when we validate decadal hindcasts for the past 50 years against the multi-model signal. However, this predictability is not found in models driven only by external radiative changes, demonstrating the need for initialization of decadal climate predictions.  相似文献   
89.
In the 1960s North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) cooled rapidly. The magnitude of the cooling was largest in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and was coincident with a rapid freshening of the SPG. Here we analyze hindcasts of the 1960s North Atlantic cooling made with the UK Met Office’s decadal prediction system (DePreSys), which is initialised using observations. It is shown that DePreSys captures—with a lead time of several years—the observed cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic SPG. DePreSys also captures changes in SST over the wider North Atlantic and surface climate impacts over the wider region, such as changes in atmospheric circulation in winter and sea ice extent. We show that initialisation of an anomalously weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and hence weak northward heat transport, is crucial for DePreSys to predict the magnitude of the observed cooling. Such an anomalously weak AMOC is not captured when ocean observations are not assimilated (i.e. it is not a forced response in this model). The freshening of the SPG is also dominated by ocean salt transport changes in DePreSys; in particular, the simulation of advective freshwater anomalies analogous to the Great Salinity Anomaly were key. Therefore, DePreSys suggests that ocean dynamics played an important role in the cooling of the North Atlantic in the 1960s, and that this event was predictable.  相似文献   
90.
Abstract The St-Robert (Québec, Canada) meteorite shower occurred on 1994 June 15 at 0h02m UT accompanied by detonations audible for >200 km from the fireball endpoint. The fireball was recorded by visual observers in Vermont, New York State, New Hampshire, Québec and Ontario as well as by optical and infrared sensors in Earth-orbit. Penetration to an altitude of 36 km occurred ~60 km to the northeast of Montreal, where the bolide experienced several episodes of fragmentation. A total of 20 fragments of this H5 chondrite, comprising a total mass of 25.4 kg, were recovered in an ellipse measuring 8 × 3.5 km. One fragment of the shower partially penetrated the aluminum roof of a shed. Interpretation of the visual and satellite data suggests that the fireball traveled from south-southwest to north-northeast, with a slope from the horizontal of 55°–61°. A statistical evaluation of the likely heliocentric orbits for the body prior to collision with the Earth, coupled with theoretical modeling of the entry, suggests an entry velocity in the range of 12.7–13.3 km/s; the meteoroid had moved in a low-inclination orbit, with orbital perihelion located extremely close to the Earth's orbit. From satellite optical data, it is found that the photometric mass consumed during the largest detonation is ~1200 kg. Estimation of the amplitude of the acoustic signal detected by the most distant observer yields a source energy near 0.5 kt TNT equivalent energy, which corresponds to a mass of order 10 metric tonnes. This measure is uncertain to approximately one order of magnitude. Theoretical modeling of the entry of the object suggests a mass near 1600 kg. Cosmogenic radionuclide activities constrain the lower initial mass to be ~700 kg with an upper limit near 4000 kg. Seismic data possibly associated with the fireball suggest extremely poor coupling between the airwave and the ground. The total mass estimated to have reached the ground is ~100 kg (in material comprising >55 g fragments), while the preatmospheric mass is found to be most probably in the range of 1200–2000 kg.  相似文献   
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