土地利用动态模拟模型的构建及其应用——以北京市海淀区为例   总被引：43，自引：1，他引：42  

段增强  P.H.Verburg  张凤荣  宇振荣 《地理学报》2004,59(6):1037-1047

CLUE-S模型是一个基于经验统计原理的模拟多土地利用类型空间变化的动态模拟模型,它在世界多个国家和地区的区域尺度农业、森林为主的土地利用变化模拟中得到应用。作者对CLUE-S模型进行了改进,改进后的模型 (CLUE-SII) 引入了动态计算的邻域分析因子,可以对土地利用变化中的自发过程、自组织过程和土地利用类型间的竞争进行模拟,还可以根据研究区域特点构建不同的模拟方案,在这些模拟方案中,局地因子和邻域因子在土地利用变化中的作用方式不同。应用CLUE-SII对北京市海淀区1991~2001年土地利用变化进行了多方案模拟,结果表明邻域因子对城镇用地变化具有重要作用,其中将邻域因子看作自发过程放大因子的模拟方案获得了较好的模拟结果,整图符合比达到77%,其中城镇用地符合比达到82%,Kappa值达到0.754。CLUE-SII在北京市海淀区的应用实例表明,该模型可以对高分辨率和多土地利用类型下的城市扩展进行有效模拟,扩展了CLUE-S的应用领域;通过构建多模拟方案,不但可以探索最佳的模拟结果,还可以研究和分析不同土地利用驱动因子在土地利用变化中的作用模式。  相似文献   

西江―北江及珠江三角洲汇流区全新世 泥炭腐木层时空分布与环境变化     

郑卓  汤永杰  郑艳伟  黄康有  韩子云  宗永强  李平日  谭惠中． 《热带地理》2016,36(3):313-325

西江和北江及珠江三角洲西北部汇流区广泛发育全新世的泥炭-淤泥腐木地层,结合剖面的沉积相特征和14C测年数据,对全新世沉积环境和含腐木地层的分布和环境变化进行探讨,获得以下认识：1）在西江和北江下游海侵北界以上的陆相沉积序列中,厚层泥炭主要形成于中晚全新世（7.5―1.5 cal. ka B.P.）,集中堆积时间为5.0―1.5 cal. ka B.P.;2）珠江三角洲全新世海侵对三角洲边缘区陆相泥炭沼泽的形成起决定性作用,早全新世（约9―7 cal. ka B.P.）三角洲西北端的高速率河口相粉砂黏土沉积为后来的半咸水沼泽发育奠定了淤泥深厚的物质基础,而西江―北江下游陆相洪冲积或河漫滩沉积则在8 cal. ka B.P.左右开始发育,也为之后的水松泥炭沼泽繁盛奠定了基础;3）三水西南一带是中全新世西江―北江下游泛滥平原至古河口湾的过渡区,潮汐流与河流的双重作用是造成三角洲边缘区大面积泥炭沼泽湿地形成的主要原因;4）泥炭湿地生态环境大多在2.0―1.5 cal. ka B.P.前后在西江和北江被高位洪水平流沉积物埋藏,而在三角洲区域多被泛滥平原洪积物覆盖。多数剖面泥炭腐木迁移的原因与三角洲的快速加积作用导致的潮流与河流空间位置平衡被破坏和水文条件改变有关,晚全新世不断增强的人类农业活动和森林破坏与水土流失也是导致三角洲天然沼泽湿地消失的重要原因。  相似文献   

珠江口岛屿全新世沙堤的年代与沉积环境     

万一兴  郑卓  萧一亭  汤永杰  陈聪． 《热带地理》2016,36(3):388-398

通过对珠江口岛屿小型海湾如珠海淇澳岛和澳门黑沙滩一级阶地上的古沙坝/沙丘进行光释光（OSL）年代测定、粒度分析,结果表明,全新世潮间带砂体沉积的底部年代根据光释光测年结果和沉积速率推算,超过9 ka。海岸带形成的古沙坝或风成砂质沉积的光释光测年结果大部分老于新石器文化堆积的器物年代,表明全新世高海面期砂质滨海相沉积的形成先于新石器人类活动遗迹。潮间带砂质滨海相沉积的上覆地层常在6.5 ka左右快速转变为潮上带的风成沉积-人类活动混合堆积,导致文化层中沉积物粒度分选变差,参数波动较大。淇澳岛小沙澳湾9―4.3 ka的滨海相砂质沉积的顶部目前位于海拔＋4.8 m,这一高程可能与构造抬升运动有关。  相似文献   

南亚热带全新世火灾记录的气候变化及人类影响     

马婷  郑卓  满美玲  李杰  彭环环  韩爱艳  黄康有． 《热带地理》2016,36(3):486-494

选取华南沿海丘陵山地3个南亚热带不同地点及海拔的钻孔岩芯进行了微炭屑统计分析,结合孢粉分析结果,揭示全新世以来的植被变化与火灾历史,并探讨火灾事件与季风变化和人类活动的关系。结果表明：从8 000―3 500 cal. a B.P.,3个钻孔的微炭屑浓度均极低,证明该时段森林火灾频率很低,同时高木本含量的孢粉分析结果反映了亚热带阔叶林的繁盛,并指示全新世大暖期湿润和降雨丰沛的气候特征。加上早中全新世南方人口稀少,无“刀耕火种”等大面积农业活动。从3 500 cal. a B.P.开始,多个钻孔显示出微炭屑含量的迅速增加并持续高值,这与华南地区夏季风减弱导致降雨减少、气候变干,以及华南地区人类历史从新石器晚期进入商周时代的转折期密切相关。同时,孢粉指示的阔叶类木本植物含量显著减少,表明火灾对森林破坏逐渐严重。2 000 cal. a B.P.以后,人口出现第一次增长高峰,考古出土的器物证明牛耕和铁器农具开始广泛使用,农业快速发展。这一时期低海拔的GY1和中海拔的LTY钻孔微碳屑含量维持高值,禾本科以及芒萁属等次生植物孢粉含量快速增加。这反映了秦或南越国以后在华南地区较低海拔山地和平原农业活动得到迅速发展。此外,位于海拔1 600 m以上的钻孔GT-2的微碳屑记录显示：高海拔山区在800 cal. a B.P.以后才开始出现频繁的森林火灾,反映人类农业活动和人口增加扩张到高海拔山区。  相似文献   

冷水珊瑚礁研究进展与评述     

赵美霞  余克服． 《热带地理》2016,36(1):94-100

相比浅海暖水珊瑚礁,对深海的冷水珊瑚礁研究相对薄弱。近年来随着水下机器人和深潜器技术的进步,国际上兴起了深海珊瑚礁研究热潮。文章综述了：1）冷水石珊瑚的物种多样性及格局分布特征;2）冷水石珊瑚的生长特征及测量方法;3）冷水珊瑚礁的类型、形成机制与演化过程;4）海洋酸化对冷水珊瑚礁的影响;5）冷水石珊瑚对海洋古环境的记录等。最后提出中国南海冷水珊瑚礁研究展望,建议开展探测南海冷水珊瑚礁的分布,监测珊瑚礁区的生态环境,分析冷水石珊瑚群落特征,探讨冷水珊瑚礁对海洋酸化的响应机制,并利用南海冷水石珊瑚重建南海冷水珊瑚礁的发育历史及所记录的古海洋环境等研究工作。  相似文献   

Quantifying deforestation and secondary forest determinants for different spatial extents in an Amazonian colonization frontier (Rondonia)     

Luciana de Souza Soler  Maria Isabel S. Escada  Peter H. Verburg 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2009,29(2):182-193

Spatial patterns of deforested areas and secondary forest are analyzed in terms of the spatial variation in location factors at different spatial extents. The spatial extents considered are old and new agrarian colonization projects and the administrative units of two different municipalities in Rondonia: Vale do Anari and Machadinho d'Oeste. A grid database was constructed including land cover and potential location factors based on biophysical, accessibility, socioeconomic and policy data. Results of the spatial analyses confirmed the hypothesis that different extents yield different relationships between land use/cover patterns and their location factors, particularly between old and new agrarian colonization projects. It emphasizes that current patterns of forest, secondary forest and pasture/agriculture can only be understood with a combination of policy, accessibility, biophysical and socioeconomic factors while accounting for the historical pathways of change. Because we are dealing with different trajectories of land use/cover change, static analysis of the spatial pattern without acknowledging these trajectories will lead to erroneous interpretations of the current and future land use/cover dynamics.  相似文献   

日本掀起对活断层定义和地震预报的热烈讨论   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

中川和之 《国际地震动态》1999,(5):32-33

１９９７年１１月由日本地震学会宣传委员会发起的英文简称为ｎｆｍｌ的活动至１９９８年２月初已２个多月了。截至１９９８年２月５日,已有１４５名参与者。他们就地震、防灾、科学教育和媒体的作用进行了内容广泛的讨论。参与者中不仅有地震学专家,还有宣传、教育、行...  相似文献   

On paleoecology of carnivorous dinosaurs ( Tyrannosauridae，Dromaeosauridae) from Late Cretaceous fossil deposits of Amur region，Russian Far East          下载免费PDF全文

Ivan U． Bolotsky 《世界地质(英文版)》2011,14(1):1-14

Present article is on Russian Far East carnivorous dinosaur paleoecology． Described summary is based on detailed study and comparison of isolated shed teeth morphology．  相似文献   

The effect of agricultural trade liberalisation on land-use related greenhouse gas emissions     

Ren Verburg  Elke Stehfest  Geert Woltjer  Bas Eickhout 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(4):434-446

This study explores the effects of agricultural trade liberalisation and concomitant changes in agricultural areas and livestock production on greenhouse gas emissions using the coupled LEITAP–IMAGE modelling system. The results indicate that liberalisation leads to an increase in total greenhouse gas emissions by about 6% compared to the reference scenario value in 2015. The increase in CO₂ emissions are caused by vegetation clearance due to a rapid expansion of agricultural area; mainly in South America and Southeast Asia. Increased methane emissions in the case of full liberalisation are caused by less intensive cattle farming in regions such as South America and Southeast Asia. This pattern is observed up to 2050. Total global production of milk, dairy and beef do not change with full liberalisation, but production shifts were observed from North America and Europe to South America and Southeast Asia. Results are less pronounced in variants where trade liberalisation is only implemented partially. Remarkably, our study shows in the trade barrier removal scenario larger numbers of dairy cows in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) then with full liberalisation scenario or a variant in which only milk quota are abolished. This illustrates that different types of liberalisation need to be analysed regionally and per commodity before general conclusions on the impact of trade liberalisation can be drawn. Our study contributes new information on greenhouse gas emissions to a vast number of trade liberalisation studies that focus on economic impacts. The combined economic-environmental impacts need to be assessed in detail before general conclusions on trade liberalisation can be given.  相似文献   

The need to correct for the Suess effect in the application of δ<Superscript>13</Superscript>C in sediment of autotrophic Lake Tanganyika,as a productivity proxy in the Anthropocene     

Piet Verburg 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2007,37(4):591-602

The change in dissolved inorganic δ¹³C in the ocean resulting from the change in δ¹³C in atmospheric CO₂ owing to anthropogenic activities (the Suess effect) is well known. The need to correct for the Suess effect when applying δ¹³C in organic matter in lacustrine sediment deposited during the anthropocene as a productivity proxy, is widely although not universally acknowledged. This paper reviews conceptions about the Suess effect in lacustrine δ¹³C_org and methods to adjust for the Suess effect when δ¹³C_org is used to infer recent changes in aquatic productivity. Lake Tanganyika is used as an example to illustrate the necessity of the correction. When the Suess effect is not considered, interpretations of sediment core data can result that are opposite to those achieved with the correction applied, as is here shown in Lake Tanganyika and in other lakes. A new method to correct for the Suess effect is provided which has the advantage of being applicable to data for a larger period (1700–2000) than methods currently available. In addition, Lake Tanganyika is shown to be a net sink for CO₂.  相似文献