Statistical modeling of extreme value behavior in North American tree-ring density series     

Elizabeth Mannshardt  Peter F. Craigmile  Martin P. Tingley 《Climatic change》2013,117(4):843-858

Many analyses of the paleoclimate record include conclusions about extremes, with a focus on the unprecedented nature of recent climate events. While the use of extreme value theory is becoming common in the analysis of the instrumental climate record, applications of this framework to the spatio-temporal analysis of paleoclimate records remain limited. This article develops a Bayesian hierarchical model to investigate spatially varying trends and dependencies in the parameters characterizing the distribution of extremes of a proxy data set, and applies it to the site-wise decadal maxima and minima of a gridded network of temperature sensitive tree ring density time series over northern North America. The statistical analysis reveals significant spatial associations in the temporal trends of the location parameters of the generalized extreme value distributions: maxima are increasing as a function of time, with stronger increases in the north and east of North America; minima are significantly increasing in the west, possibly decreasing in the east, and exhibit no changes in the center of the region. Results indicate that the distribution varies as a function of both space and time, with tree ring density maxima becoming more extreme as a function of time and minima having diverging temporal trends, by spatial location. Results of this proxy-only analysis are a first step towards directly reconstructing extremal climate behavior, as opposed to mean climate behavior, by linking extremes in the proxy record to extremes in the instrumental record.  相似文献   

Bulk organic δ13C and C/N ratios as palaeosalinity indicators within a Scottish isolation basin     

Elizabeth A. V. Mackie  Melanie J. Leng  Jeremy M. Lloyd  Carol Arrowsmith 《第四纪科学杂志》2005,20(4):303-312

Microfossils in isolation basin sediments are frequently used to reconstruct sea‐level change, but preservation problems and non‐analogue situations can limit their usefulness. Here we investigate the potential of stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³C) and C/N ratios from bulk organic matter, as an alternative proxy of salinity within isolation basin sediments from a basin in northwest Scotland. Within the Holocene sediment δ¹³C and C/N are determined largely by the mean weighted values of the predominant source of the organic material. Analysis of modern materials and comparison with the diatom record shows that the marine parts of the sequence are dominated by high δ¹³C and variable C/N. In the fresh water sequences the organic material is a mixture of both freshwater aquatic and terrestrial plant input that have relatively low δ¹³C and high C/N. The application of δ¹³C and C/N ratios in the studied basin in general follow the environmental change recorded by the diatoms and shows the potential of bulk organic matter in the investigation of salinity change in isolation basins. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Near-infrared properties of i-drop galaxies in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field     

Elizabeth R. Stanway  Richard G. McMahon  Andrew J. Bunker 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,359(3):1184-1192

We analyse near-infrared Hubble Space Telescope ( HST )/Near-Infrared Camera and Multi-Object Spectrometer F 110 W ( J ) and F 160 W ( H ) band photometry of a sample of 27 i '-drop candidate   z ≃ 6  galaxies in the central region of the HST /Advanced Camera for Surveys Ultra Deep Field . The infrared colours of the 20 objects not affected by near neighbours are consistent with a high-redshift interpretation. This suggests that the low-redshift contamination of this i '-drop sample is smaller than that observed at brighter magnitudes, where values of 10–40 per cent have been reported. The J – H colours are consistent with a slope flat in   f_ν ( f_λ ∝λ⁻²)  , as would be expected for an unreddened starburst. However, there is evidence for a marginally bluer spectral slope  ( f_λ ∝λ^−2.2)  , which is perhaps indicative of an extremely young starburst (∼10 Myr old) or a top heavy initial mass function and little dust. The low levels of contamination, median photometric redshift of   z ∼ 6.0  and blue spectral slope, inferred using the near-infrared data, support the validity of the assumptions in our earlier work in estimating the star formation rates, and that the majority of the i -drop candidates galaxies lie at   z ∼ 6  .  相似文献   

Spitzer imaging of i'-drop galaxies: old stars at z≈ 6     

Laurence P. Eyles  rew J. Bunker  Elizabeth R. Stanway  Mark Lacy  Richard S. Ellis  Michelle Doherty 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,364(2):443-454

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The arctic — in need of an international regime     

Elizabeth Young 《Marine Policy》1981,5(2):154-156

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Maritime policy and the coastal community — The impact of the law of the sea: edited by Douglas M. Johnston 338 pages, £9.95, 1976, Croom Helm,London, UK     

Elizabeth Young 《Marine Policy》1977,1(1):82-83

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VOCs in Ground Water Influenced by Large Scale Withdrawals   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alex J. Fischer  Elizabeth A. Rowan  Roy F. Spalding 《Ground water》1987,25(4):407-414

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First results from the Very Small Array – I. Observational methods     

Robert A. Watson  Pedro Carreira  Kieran Cleary  Rod D. Davies  Richard J. Davis  Clive Dickinson  Keith Grainge †  Carlos M. Gutiérrez  Michael P. Hobson  Michael E. Jones  Rüdiger Kneissl  Anthony Lasenby  Klaus Maisinger  Guy G. Pooley  Rafael Rebolo  José Alberto Rubiño-Martin ‡  Ben Rusholme §  Richard D. E. Saunders  Richard Savage  Paul F. Scott  An&#;e Slosar  Pedro J. Sosa Molina  Angela C. Taylor  David Titterington  Elizabeth Waldram  Althea Wilkinson 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,341(4):1057-1065

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Phytoplankton-zooplankton coupling in the outer continental shelf and slope waters of the Mid-Atlantic Bight,June 1979     

Elizabeth Cosper  Jeanne C. Stepien 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1984,18(2):145-155

Measurements of phytoplankton distribution and production, and zooplankton abundance and biomass were made during the summer of 1979 along several shelf-slope transects in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. At the shelf-break, macrozooplankton (>200 μm) grazing was estimated to be sufficient to remove a substantial proportion of daily phytoplankton production. In contrast, on the shelf and in slope waters, where ciliates were abundant, estimates of macrozooplankton grazing indicated a consumption rate less than 15% of the daily primary production. Ciliate grazing, even at non-maximum rates, potentially could have consumed the entire daily primary production in all areas sampled. The findings indicate that the nature of the heterotrophic community is spatially variable in offshore waters even during summer conditions and could influence not only trophodynamic pathways but perhaps nutrient regeneration and recycling. This would be an important consideration in evaluating the fate of particle-bound chemcial species in the water column since fecal pellet producing zooplankton would affect rates of removal and sedimentation in a different manner than ciliates which produce non-compacted digestive debris.  相似文献   

Validating a rapid-update satellite precipitation analysis across telescoping space and time scales     

Francis Joseph Turk  Byung-Ju Sohn  Hyun-Jong Oh  Elizabeth E. Ebert  Vincenzo Levizzani  Eric A. Smith 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2009,105(1-2):99-108

In order to properly utilize remotely sensed precipitation estimates in hydrometeorological applications, knowledge of the accuracy of the estimates are needed. However, relatively few ground validation networks operate with the necessary spatial density and time-resolution required for validation of high-resolution precipitation products (HRPP) generated at fine space and time scales (e.g., hourly accumulations produced on a 0.25° spatial scale). In this article, we examine over-land validation statistics for an operationally designed, meteorological satellite-based global rainfall analysis that blends intermittent passive microwave-derived rainfall estimates aboard a variety of low Earth-orbiting satellite platforms with sub-hourly time sampling capabilities of visible and infrared imagers aboard operational geostationary platforms. The validation dataset is comprised of raingauge data collected from the dense, nearly homogeneous, 1-min reporting Automated Weather Station (network of the Korean Meteorological Administration during the June to August 2000 summer monsoon season. The space-time RMS error, mean bias, and correlation matrices were computed using various time windows for the gauge averaging, centered about the satellite observation time. For ±10 min time window, a correlation of 0.6 was achieved at 0.1° spatial scale by averaging more than 3 days; coarsening the spatial scale to 1.8° produced the same correlation by averaging over 1 h. Finer than approximately 24-h and 1° time and space scales, respectively, a rapid decay of the error statistics was obtained by trading-off either spatial or time resolution. Beyond a daily time scale, the blended estimates were nearly unbiased and with an RMS error of no worse than 1 mm day^?1.  相似文献