Elliptical multi-sun-synchronous orbits for Mars exploration     

Christian Circi  Emiliano Ortore  Federico Bunkheila  Carlo Ulivieri 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2012,114(3):215-227

The multi-sun-synchronous orbits allow cycles of observation of the same area in which solar illumination repetitively changes according to the value of the orbit elements and returns to the initial condition after a temporal interval multiple of the repetition of observation. This paper generalizes the concept of multi-sun-synchronous orbits, whose classical sun-synchronous orbits represent particular solutions, taking into consideration the elliptical case. The feasibility of using this typology of orbits, referred to as elliptical periodic multi-sun-synchronous orbits, has been investigated for the exploration of Mars and particular solutions have been selected. Such solutions considerably reduce the manoeuvre of velocity variation at the end of the interplanetary transfer with respect to the case of a target circular orbit around Mars. They are based on the use of quasi-critical inclinations in order to minimize the apsidal line motion and thus reduce orbit maintenance costs. Moreover, in the case of high eccentricities, the argument of pericentre may be set in order to obtain, around the apocentre, a condition of quasi-synchronism with the planet (the footprint of the probe on the surface presents a small shift with respect to a fixed point on the Martian surface). The low altitude of pericentre allows observation of the planet at a higher spatial resolution, while the orbit arc around the apocentre may be used to observe Mars with a wide spatial coverage in quasi-stationary conditions. This latter characteristic is useful for analysing atmospheric and meteorological phenomena and it allows for most of the orbital period a link between a rover on the surface of Mars and a probe orbiting around the planet.  相似文献   

Assessment of rockfall susceptibility by integrating statistical and physically-based approaches   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

Paolo Frattini  Giovanni Crosta  Alberto Carrara  Federico Agliardi 《Geomorphology》2008,94(3-4):419

In Val di Fassa (Dolomites, Eastern Italian Alps) rockfalls constitute the most significant gravity-induced natural disaster that threatens both the inhabitants of the valley, who are few, and the thousands of tourists who populate the area in summer and winter.To assess rockfall susceptibility, we developed an integrated statistical and physically-based approach that aimed to predict both the susceptibility to onset and the probability that rockfalls will attain specific reaches. Through field checks and multi-temporal aerial photo-interpretation, we prepared a detailed inventory of both rockfall source areas and associated scree-slope deposits. Using an innovative technique based on GIS tools and a 3D rockfall simulation code, grid cells pertaining to the rockfall source-area polygons were classified as active or inactive, based on the state of activity of the associated scree-slope deposits. The simulation code allows one to link each source grid cell with scree deposit polygons by calculating the trajectory of each simulated launch of blocks. By means of discriminant analysis, we then identified the mix of environmental variables that best identifies grid cells with low or high susceptibility to rockfalls. Among these variables, structural setting, land use, and morphology were the most important factors that led to the initiation of rockfalls.We developed 3D simulation models of the runout distance, intensity and frequency of rockfalls, whose source grid cells corresponded either to the geomorphologically-defined source polygons (geomorphological scenario) or to study area grid cells with slope angle greater than an empirically-defined value of 37° (empirical scenario). For each scenario, we assigned to the source grid cells an either fixed or variable onset susceptibility; the latter was derived from the discriminant model group (active/inactive) membership probabilities.Comparison of these four models indicates that the geomorphological scenario with variable onset susceptibility appears to be the most realistic model. Nevertheless, political and legal issues seem to guide local administrators, who tend to select the more conservative empirically-based scenario as a land-planning tool.  相似文献   

Exact density–potential pairs from complex-shifted axisymmetric systems     

Luca Ciotti  Federico Marinacci 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,387(3):1117-1125

In a previous paper, the complex-shift method has been applied to self-gravitating spherical systems, producing new analytical axisymmetric density–potential pairs. We now extend the treatment to the Miyamoto–Nagai disc and the Binney logarithmic halo, and we study the resulting axisymmetric and triaxial analytical density–potential pairs; we also show how to obtain the surface density of shifted systems from the complex shift of the surface density of the parent model. In particular, the systems obtained from Miyamoto–Nagai discs can be used to describe disc galaxies with a peanut-shaped bulge or with a central triaxial bar, depending on the direction of the shift vector. By using a constructive method that can be applied to generic axisymmetric systems, we finally show that the Miyamoto–Nagai and the Satoh discs, and the Binney logarithmic halo cannot be obtained from the complex shift of any spherical parent distribution. As a by-product of this study, we also found two new generating functions in closed form for even and odd Legendre polynomials, respectively.  相似文献   

A unified framework for earthquake risk assessment of transportation networks and gross regional product     

Federico Carturan  Mariano Angelo Zanini  Carlo Pellegrino  Claudio Modena 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(2):795-806

Natural threats like earthquakes, hurricanes or tsunamis have had serious impacts on communities. In the past, major earthquakes in the United States like Loma Prieta 1989, Northridge 1994, or recent events in Italy like L’Aquila 2009 or Emilia 2012 emphasized the importance of preparedness and awareness to reduce social impacts. In addition to that, earthquake damaged businesses dramatically reduced the gross regional product. Generating scenario earthquakes in a proper way is important to suitably assess the risk in bridge networks and social losses in terms of gross regional product reduction. Seismic hazard is traditionally assessed by means of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Although PSHA well represents the hazard at a specific location it is not suitable for spatially distributed systems. Scenario earthquakes can overcome this problem; they represent the actual distribution of ground shaking for a spatially distributed system while being hazard consistent. In this work a methodology to generate scenario earthquakes has been proposed using a novel approach with the aim of being the basic step for investigating possible earthquake consequences in seismic areas and contributing to reduce losses.  相似文献   

Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0  

Tommaso Carlà  Emanuele Intrieri  Federico Di Traglia  Teresa Nolesini  Giovanni Gigli  Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2017,14(2):517-534

Predicting the time of failure is a topic of major concern in the field of geological risk management. Several approaches, based on the analysis of displacement monitoring data, have been proposed in recent years to deal with the issue. Among these, the inverse velocity method surely demonstrated its effectiveness in anticipating the time of collapse of rock slopes displaying accelerating trends of deformation rate. However, inferring suitable linear trend lines and deducing reliable failure predictions from inverse velocity plots are processes that may be hampered by the noise present in the measurements; data smoothing is therefore a very important phase of inverse velocity analyses. In this study, different filters are tested on velocity time series from four case studies of geomechanical failure in order to improve, in retrospect, the reliability of failure predictions: Specifically, three major landslides and the collapse of an historical city wall in Italy have been examined. The effects of noise on the interpretation of inverse velocity graphs are also assessed. General guidelines to conveniently perform data smoothing, in relation to the specific characteristics of the acceleration phase, are deduced. Finally, with the aim of improving the practical use of the method and supporting the definition of emergency response plans, some standard procedures to automatically setup failure alarm levels are proposed. The thresholds which separate the alarm levels would be established without needing a long period of neither reference historical data nor calibration on past failure events.  相似文献   

Estimates of effective permeability for non-Newtonian fluid flow in randomly heterogeneous porous media     

Vittorio Di Federico  Marco Pinelli  Rita Ugarelli 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(7):1067-1076

An understanding of the interplay between non-Newtonian effects in porous media flow and field-scale domain heterogeneity is of great importance in several engineering and geological applications. Here we present a simplified approach to the derivation of an effective permeability for flow of a purely viscous power–law fluid with flow behavior index n in a randomly heterogeneous porous domain subject to a uniform pressure gradient. A standard form of the flow law generalizing the Darcy’s law to non-Newtonian fluids is adopted, with the permeability coefficient being the only source of randomness. The natural logarithm of the permeability is considered a spatially homogeneous and correlated Gaussian random field. Under the ergodic hypothesis, an effective permeability is first derived for two limit 1-D flow geometries: flow parallel to permeability variation (serial-type layers), and flow transverse to permeability variation (parallel-type layers). The effective permeability of a 2-D or 3-D isotropic domain is conjectured to be a power average of 1-D results, generalizing results valid for Newtonian fluids under the validity of Darcy’s law; the conjecture is validated comparing our results with previous literature findings. The conjecture is then extended, allowing the exponents of the power averaging to be functions of the flow behavior index. For Newtonian flow, novel expressions for the effective permeability reduce to those derived in the past. The effective permeability is shown to be a function of flow dimensionality, domain heterogeneity, and flow behavior index. The impact of heterogeneity is significant, especially for shear-thinning fluids with a low flow behavior index, which tend to exhibit channeling behavior.  相似文献   

Retrogressive fabric development during exhumation of the Voltri Massif (Ligurian Alps,Italy): arguments for an extensional origin and implications for the Alps–Apennines linkage     

Gianluca Vignaroli  Claudio Faccenna  Federico Rossetti 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2009,98(5):1077-1093

Geological mapping coupled with structural investigations carried out in the Voltri Massif (eastern Ligurian Alps, Italy) provide new data for the interpretation of the tectonic context controlling main fabric development during exhumation of its high-pressure core. The Voltri Massif is here interpreted as a c. 30 km-long eclogite-bearing, asymmetric dome formed by the progressive verticalisation of the regional, second-phase mylonitic foliation developed during retrogressive greenschist metamorphic conditions. In this light, the exhumation history is driven by a ductile-to-brittle extensional process, operating through low-angle, top-to-the-W multiple detachment systems. A Late Eocene–Early Oligocene age for this extensional episode is proposed on the basis of structural correlations, stratigraphic and radiometric constraints. In this scenario, the Voltri Massif is interpreted as an extensional domain developed to accommodate the Late Eocene–Early Oligocene arching of the Western Alps–Northern Apennines orogenic system.  相似文献   

Subantarctic macrotidal flats, cheniers and beaches in San Sebastian Bay, Tierra Del Fuego, Argentina   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Federico Vilas  Alfredo Arche  Marcelo Ferrero  Federico Isla 《Marine Geology》1999,160(3-4):301-326

San Sebastian Bay is a large, semicircular coastal embayment situated on the Atlantic coast of Tierra del Fuego, Argentina. It is a high-energy, subantarctic environment with a tidal range of 10.4 m, influenced by large waves of Atlantic and local origin and swept by constant, strong westerly winds. A 17 km long gravel spit protects the Northern part of the Bay giving rise to a gradient in sedimentary processes. From south to north, are seven distinct sedimentary environments. Coastal sedimentation started at least 5200 years before present (BP) and a rapid progradation related to a relative sea-level drop has infilled about 6 kilometres of the Bay with a sedimentary sequence 10–11 m thick. 14-C dating of unabraded shells in the Chenier ridges of the relict part of the complex allows for a precise reconstruction of the stages of the progradation, that has slowed from 2.35 m/year at 5000 years BP to 0.6 m/year at present. The possible causes of the sea-level drop are discussed.  相似文献   

Application of conditional geostatistical simulation to calculate the probability of occurrence of earthquakes belonging to a seismic series     

Federico Torcal  Antonio M. Posadas  Mario Chica  & Inmaculada Serrano 《Geophysical Journal International》1999,139(3):703-725

Geostatistics offers various techniques of estimation and simulation that have been satisfactorily applied in solving geological problems. In this sense, conditional geostatistical simulation is applied to calculate the probability of occurrence of an earthquake with a lower than or equal magnitude to one determined during a seismic series. It is possible to calculate the energy of the next most probable earthquake from a specific time, given knowledge of the structure existing among earthquakes occurring prior to a specific moment.  相似文献   

Simulating a seismic series using geostatistical and stochastic methods: application to the seismic series in the Alborán Sea (1997 June 24–?)     

Federico Torcal  Antonio M. Posadas  & Inmaculada Serrano 《Geophysical Journal International》1999,139(3):726-742

Seismic series can be taken as examples of correlated unstationary sets of time-stochastic sequences. We investigate the possibility of estimating what is most probable to occur subsequently, if we know the events that have occurred up to a given moment.
The stochastic methods can be used with data of the seismic series, irrespective of their genesis and origin. Using three stochastic methods, namely (1) simulating the likelihood of occurrence by conditional geostatistical simulation; (2) developing a stochastic analysis of the energy release by means of energy packages; and (3) calculating the occurrence time of the most probable next earthquake, we were able to simulate the occurrence of earthquakes that took place during the Alborán Sea seismic series (1997–1998).
We conclude that it is possible to set limits on the time of occurrence and energy release, understood as the magnitude of the most probable earthquake, during the development of a seismic sequence and prior to the actual occurrence of the earthquake.  相似文献