Inter-annual variability of precipitation over Southern Mexico and Central America and its relationship to sea surface temperature from a set of future projections from CMIP5 GCMs and RegCM4 CORDEX simulations     

Ramón Fuentes-Franco  Erika Coppola  Filippo Giorgi  Edgar G. Pavia  Gulilat Tefera Diro  Federico Graef 《Climate Dynamics》2015,45(1-2):425-440

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Large scale climate and rainfall seasonality in a Mediterranean Area: Insights from a non‐homogeneous Markov model applied to the Agro‐Pontino plain          下载免费PDF全文

Francesco Cioffi  Federico Conticello  Upmanu Lall  Lucia Marotta  Vito Telesca 《水文研究》2017,31(3):668-686

In the context of climate change and variability, there is considerable interest in how large scale climate indicators influence regional precipitation occurrence and its seasonality. Seasonal and longer climate projections from coupled ocean–atmosphere models need to be downscaled to regional levels for hydrologic applications, and the identification of appropriate state variables from such models that can best inform this process is also of direct interest. Here, a Non‐Homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM) for downscaling daily rainfall is developed for the Agro‐Pontino Plain, a coastal reclamation region very vulnerable to changes of hydrological cycle. The NHMM, through a set of atmospheric predictors, provides the link between large scale meteorological features and local rainfall patterns. Atmospheric data from the NCEP/NCAR archive and 56‐years record (1951–2004) of daily rainfall measurements from 7 stations in Agro‐Pontino Plain are analyzed. A number of validation tests are carried out, in order to: 1) identify the best set of atmospheric predictors to model local rainfall; 2) evaluate the model performance to capture realistically relevant rainfall attributes as the inter‐annual and seasonal variability, as well as average and extreme rainfall patterns. Validation tests show that the best set of atmospheric predictors are the following: mean sea level pressure, temperature at 1000 hPa, meridional and zonal wind at 850 hPa and precipitable water, from 20°N to 80°N of latitude and from 80°W to 60°E of longitude. Furthermore, the validation tests show that the rainfall attributes are simulated realistically and accurately. The capability of the NHMM to be used as a forecasting tool to quantify changes of rainfall patterns forced by alteration of atmospheric circulation under climate change and variability scenarios is discussed.  相似文献   

Erosional and depositional contourite features at the transition between the western Scotia Sea and southern South Atlantic Ocean: links with regional water-mass circulation since the Middle Miocene     

Lara F. Pérez  F. Javier Hernández-Molina  Federico D. Esteban  Alejandro Tassone  Alberto R. Piola  Andrés Maldonado  Benedict Preu  Roberto A. Violante  Emanuele Lodolo 《Geo-Marine Letters》2015,35(4):271-288

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Impact of projected climate change on hydrologic regime of the Upper Paraguay River basin   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Juan Martín Bravo  Walter Collischonn  Adriano Rolim da Paz  Daniel Allasia  Federico Domecq 《Climatic change》2014,127(1):27-41

We present an assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrologic regime of the 600,000 km² Upper Paraguay River basin, located in central South America based on predictions of 20 Atmospheric/Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). We considered two climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and two 30-years time intervals centered at 2030 and 2070. Projected temperature and precipitation anomalies estimated by the AOGCMs for the study site are spatially downscaled. Time series of projected temperature and precipitation were estimated using the delta change approach. These time series were used as input to a detailed coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model aiming to estimate projected streamflow in climate change scenarios at several control points in the basin. Results show that impacts on streamflow are highly dependent on the AOGCM used to obtain the climate predictions. Patterns of temperature increase persist over the entire year for almost all AOGCMs resulting in an increase in the evapotranspiration rate of the hydrological model. The precipitation anomalies show large dispersion, being projected as either an increase or decrease in precipitation rates. Based on these inputs, results from the coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model show nearly one half of projections as increasing river discharge, and other half as decreasing river discharge. If the mean or median of the predictions is considered, no discernible change in river discharge should be expected, despite the dispersion among results of the AOGCMs that reached +/?10 % in the short horizon and +/? 20 % in the long horizon, at several control points.  相似文献   

Accuracy assessment of the GPS-TEC calibration constants by means of a simulation technique   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Juan Federico Conte  Francisco Azpilicueta  Claudio Brunini 《Journal of Geodesy》2011,85(10):707-714

During the last 2 decades, Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements have become a very important data-source for ionospheric studies. However, it is not a direct and easy task to obtain accurate ionospheric information from these measurements because it is necessary to perform a careful estimation of the calibration constants affecting the GPS observations, the so-called differential code biases (DCBs). In this paper, the most common approximations used in several GPS calibration methods, e.g. the La Plata Ionospheric Model (LPIM), are applied to a set of specially computed synthetic slant Total Electron Content datasets to assess the accuracy of the DCB estimation in a global scale scenario. These synthetic datasets were generated using a modified version of the NeQuick model, and have two important features: they show a realistic temporal and spatial behavior and all a-priori DCBs are set to zero by construction. Then, after the application of the calibration method the deviations from zero of the estimated DCBs are direct indicators of the accuracy of the method. To evaluate the effect of the solar activity radiation level the analysis was performed for years 2001 (high solar activity) and 2006 (low solar activity). To take into account seasonal changes of the ionosphere behavior, the analysis was repeated for three consecutive days close to each equinox and solstice of every year. Then, a data package comprising 24 days from approximately 200 IGS permanent stations was processed. In order to avoid unwanted geomagnetic storms effects, the selected days correspond to periods of quiet geomagnetic conditions. The most important results of this work are: i) the estimated DCBs can be affected by errors around ±8 TECu for high solar activity and ±3 TECu for low solar activity; and ii) DCB errors present a systematic behavior depending on the modip coordinate, that is more evident for the positive modip region.  相似文献   

Source controlled 87Sr/86Sr isotope variability in granitic magmas: The inevitable consequence of mineral-scale isotopic disequilibrium in the protolith     

Federico Farina  Gary Stevens 《Lithos》2011,122(3-4):189-200

The broad Sr isotopic variability exhibited by granitoid rocks is commonly interpreted to reflect the mixing of magmas from different sources. However, evidence from granites and migmatites indicates that melting and magma extraction from crustal sources can occur sufficiently rapidly that trace-element and isotopic equilibration between liquid and residual phases is commonly not achieved. Additionally, evidence from unmelted high-grade metamorphic rocks indicates that major reactant minerals in the fluid-absent melting process, principally biotite and plagioclase, do not always attain equilibrium during regional metamorphism. When these two circumstances occur in combination, the melt does not inherit its radiogenic isotopic signature from the bulk source in a simple way. In such situations, the isotopic composition of the melt will be dependent on the isotopic compositions of the reactant phases and the stoichiometry of the melting reaction. This study has used information from experimental studies of fluid absent partial melting in metapelites and metagreywackes to investigate the consequences of Sr isotopic disequilibrium between the reactant minerals for magma composition. The study demonstrates that a range of isotopically distinct magmas can arise from progressive melting of a single source that is able to undergo melting through different reactions as temperature increases. When translated to the typically layered sources constituted by sedimentary and volcano-sedimentary rocks, this process will produce magmas characterized by Sr isotope variability that reflects the differences in melting reaction stoichiometry within the different layers, even with no bulk-rock isotopic variability between layers. This study demonstrates that the Sr isotope variability commonly observed within granitic suites, as well as at the grain and sub-grain scale within individual magmatic bodies, can be primary, reflecting differences in composition between magma batches produced from the progressive melting of a single source.  相似文献   

Magnetostratigraphy and paleomagnetism of early and middle Miocene synorogenic strata: basement partitioning and minor block rotation in Argentine broken foreland     

Oscar Zambrano  Augusto E. Rapalini  Federico M. Dávila  Ricardo A. Astini  Cecilia M. Spagnuolo 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2011,100(2-3):591-602

Magnetostratigraphic and paleomagnetic studies on early Andean synorogenic strata (Del Crestón Fm.), in the Famatina Belt (28.7°S, 67.5°W) clarify details of chronology that permit calculation of sedimentation rates within the broken foreland of west Argentina. The Del Crestón Fm represents the first record of broken foreland sedimentation within the southern Central Andean belt and the earliest retroarc volcanic rocks exposed several hundred kilometers from the trench. Twenty-five out of 49 sites collected along the succession presented a primary remanence, as determined through positive fold and reversal tests. Correlation of the local magnetic polarity section with the global polarity time scale indicates that the sedimentation of Del Crestón Fm started at ~16.7 Ma and continued until ~14.5 Ma. The youngest strata are represented by conglomerates bearing abundant Lower Paleozoic granite boulders indicating unroofing of the crystalline basement within the NW Sierras Pampeanas. This result supports the hypothesis of an early broken foreland stage at these latitudes of the Andes, with involvement of the basement in deformation and coeval retroarc volcanism, common attributes of flat-subduction regimes. A mean site paleomagnetic direction of Dec: 6.3°, Inc: ?43.6° (α95: 8.0°, N = 24) confirm our earlier intrepretation that the central part of the Famatina Belt within the Sierras Pampeanas did not undergo large vertical axes rotations since the Middle Miocene.  相似文献   

The oldest known metriorhynchid crocodylian from the Middle Jurassic of North-eastern Italy: Neptunidraco ammoniticus gen. et sp. nov.     

Andrea Cau  Federico Fanti 《Gondwana Research》2011,19(2):550-565

Metriorhynchidae is a clade of marine-adapted crocodilians known from several Middle Jurassic–Early Cretaceous specimens collected predominantly in South America and Europe, but poorly known in the northern margin of Gondwana. The “Portomaggiore crocodile” is the most complete specimen of an Italian metriorhynchid to date: it consists of a partial skeleton that has been provisionally referred to an unnamed species of Late Jurassic Metriorhynchus or Geosaurus. The specimen is preserved in the reddish, nodular limestone of the Rosso Ammonitico Veronese Formation (Bajocian–Tithonian); new data on microfossil associations constrain the age of the metriorhynchid to the late Bajocian–earliest Bathonian. On the basis of cranial synapomorphies, the “Portomaggiore crocodile” falls as the closest sister-taxon of the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous geosaurines, and is referred to Neptunidraco ammoniticus gen. et sp. nov. It is unique among Middle Jurassic metriorhynchids in showing an incipient streamlining of the skull, shared with Late Jurassic and Cretaceous taxa. Since Neptunidraco is the oldest known member of Metriorhynchidae, its phylogenetic position supports the hypothesis that the timing of the initial metriorhynchid and geosaurine diversifications should start in the Bajocian.  相似文献   

Geological and archaeological evidence of active faulting on the Martana Fault (Umbria–Marche Apennines,Italy) and its geodynamic implications     

Marco Bonini  Chiara Tanini  Giovanna Moratti  Luigi Piccardi  Federico Sani 《第四纪科学杂志》2003,18(8):695-708

This paper examines the morphotectonic and structural–geological characteristics of the Quaternary Martana Fault in the Umbria–Marche Apennines fold‐and‐thrust belt. This structure is more than 30 km long and comprises two segments: a N–NNW‐trending longer segment and a 100°N‐trending segment. After developing as a normal fault in Early Pleistocene times, the N–NNW Martana Fault segment experienced a phase of dextral faulting extending from the Early to Middle Pleistocene boundary until around 0.39 Ma, the absolute age of volcanics erupted in correspondence to releasing bends. The establishment of a stress field with a NE–ENE‐trending σ₃ axis and NW–NNW σ₁ axis in Late Pleistocene to Holocene times resulted in a strong component of sinistral faulting along N–NNW‐trending fault segments and almost pure normal faulting on newly formed NW–SE faults. Fresh fault scarps, the interaction of faulting with drainage systems and displacement of alluvial fan apexes provide evidence of the ongoing activity of this fault. The active left‐lateral kinematic along N–NNW‐trending fault segments is also revealed by the 1.8 m horizontal offset of the E–W‐trending Decumanus road, at the Roman town of Carsulae. We interpret the present‐day kinematics of the Martana Fault as consistent with a model connecting surface structures to the inferred north‐northwest trending lithospheric shear zone marking the western boundary of the Adria Plate. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Extrusion vs. accretion at the frictional–viscous décollement transition in experimental thrust wedges: the role of convergence velocity     

María Lujn  Fabrizio Storti  Federico Rossetti  Ana Crespo‐Blanc 《地学学报》2006,18(4):241-247

In many cases, thrust wedges accreted at shallow crustal levels show an across‐strike rheological variability along the basal décollement, notably from brittle to ductile behaviour. In this paper, we illustrate the results of sandbox analogue modelling research devoted to studying the influence of convergence velocity on wedge architecture when laterally juxtaposed frictional and viscous materials occur along the basal décollement of accreting thrust wedges. Our results show that slow convergence favours a near symmetrical distribution of thrust vergence within wedge sectors accreted above viscous décollement material, whereas fast convergence favours vergence asymmetry. In particular, at fast convergence rates the hinterlandward extrusion of viscous décollement material at the toe of the frictional wedge is favoured and contributed to accommodate a significant amount of the total contraction. Terra Nova, 18, 241–247, 2006  相似文献