A Functional Data Analysis Approach to Surrogate Modeling in Reservoir and Geomechanics Uncertainty Quantification     

Francesca Bottazzi  Ernesto Della Rossa 《Mathematical Geosciences》2017,49(4):517-540

Uncertainty quantification for geomechanical and reservoir predictions is in general a computationally intensive problem, especially if a direct Monte Carlo approach with large numbers of full-physics simulations is used. A common solution to this problem, well-known for the fluid flow simulations, is the adoption of surrogate modeling approximating the physical behavior with respect to variations in uncertain parameters. The objective of this work is the quantification of such uncertainty both within geomechanical predictions and fluid-flow predictions using a specific surrogate modeling technique, which is based on a functional approach. The methodology realizes an approximation of full-physics simulated outputs that are varying in time and space when uncertainty parameters are changed, particularly important for the prediction of uncertainty in vertical displacement resulting from geomechanical modeling. The developed methodology has been applied both to a subsidence uncertainty quantification example and to a real reservoir forecast risk assessment. The surrogate quality obtained with these applications confirms that the proposed method makes it possible to perform reliable time–space varying dependent risk assessment with a low computational cost, provided the uncertainty space is low-dimensional.  相似文献   

Horashim East: a newly discovered Middle Palaeolithic site in central Israel     

Ella Assaf  Viviane Slon  Francesca Romagnoli 《第四纪科学杂志》2022,37(1):1-5

Horashim East is a newly discovered Middle Palaeolithic open-air occurrence in central Israel, revealed during a thematic prehistoric survey. Hundreds of lithic items were found, including an early-stage biface, Levallois cores and products. As only a few open-air settlements are known from the Middle Palaeolithic Levant, the discovery of Horashim East sheds new light on human land-use patterns during this period and reinforces the notion that central-eastern Israel was favourable for human settlement throughout the Palaeolithic.  相似文献