A Functional Data Analysis Approach to Surrogate Modeling in Reservoir and Geomechanics Uncertainty Quantification     

Francesca Bottazzi  Ernesto Della Rossa 《Mathematical Geosciences》2017,49(4):517-540

Uncertainty quantification for geomechanical and reservoir predictions is in general a computationally intensive problem, especially if a direct Monte Carlo approach with large numbers of full-physics simulations is used. A common solution to this problem, well-known for the fluid flow simulations, is the adoption of surrogate modeling approximating the physical behavior with respect to variations in uncertain parameters. The objective of this work is the quantification of such uncertainty both within geomechanical predictions and fluid-flow predictions using a specific surrogate modeling technique, which is based on a functional approach. The methodology realizes an approximation of full-physics simulated outputs that are varying in time and space when uncertainty parameters are changed, particularly important for the prediction of uncertainty in vertical displacement resulting from geomechanical modeling. The developed methodology has been applied both to a subsidence uncertainty quantification example and to a real reservoir forecast risk assessment. The surrogate quality obtained with these applications confirms that the proposed method makes it possible to perform reliable time–space varying dependent risk assessment with a low computational cost, provided the uncertainty space is low-dimensional.  相似文献   

Dynamical and chemical evolution of gas-rich dwarf galaxies     

Simone Recchi  Francesca Matteucci  Annibale D'Ercole 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,322(4):800-820

We study the effect of a single, instantaneous starburst on the dynamical and chemical evolution of a gas-rich dwarf galaxy, the potential well of which is dominated by a dark matter halo. We follow the dynamical and chemical evolution of the interstellar medium (ISM) by means of an improved two-dimensional hydrodynamical code coupled with detailed chemical yields originating from type II SNe, type Ia SNe and single low- and intermediate-mass stars (IMS). In particular we follow the evolution of the abundances of H, He, C, N, O, Mg, Si and Fe. We find that for a galaxy resembling IZw18, a galactic wind develops as a consequence of the starburst and it carries out of the galaxy mostly the metal-enriched gas. In addition, we find that different metals are lost differentially in the sense that the elements produced by type Ia SNe are lost more efficiently than others. As a consequence of that, we predict larger [ α /Fe] ratios for the gas inside the galaxy than for the gas leaving the galaxy. A comparison of our predicted abundances of C, N, O and Si in the case of a burst occurring in a primordial gas shows a very good agreement with the observed abundances in IZw18 as long as the burst has an age of ∼31 Myr and IMS produce some primary nitrogen. However, we cannot exclude that a previous burst of star formation had occurred in IZw18, especially if the pre-enrichment produced by the older burst was lower than Z =0.01 Z_⊙. Finally, at variance with previous studies, we find that most of the metals reside in the cold gas phase already after a few Myr. This result is mainly caused by the assumed low SN II heating efficiency, and justifies the generally adopted homogeneous and instantaneous mixing of gas in chemical evolution models.  相似文献   

Flood probability analysis for un-gauged watersheds by means of a simple distributed hydrologic model     

Giorgio Boni  Luca Ferraris  Francesca Giannoni  Giorgio Roth  Roberto Rudari 《Advances in water resources》2007

A methodology is proposed for the inference, at the regional and local scales, of flood magnitude and associated probability. Once properly set-up, this methodology is able to provide flood frequencies distributions at gauged and un-gauged river sections pertaining to the same homogeneous region, using information extracted from rainfall observations. A proper flood frequency distribution can be therefore predicted even in un-gauged watersheds, for which no discharge time series is available.  相似文献   

Numerically enhanced conceptual modelling (NECoM) applied to the Malta Mean Sea Level Aquifer     

Lotti  Francesca  Borsi  Iacopo  Guastaldi  Enrico  Barbagli  Alessio  Basile  Paolo  Favaro  Lorenzo  Mallia  Adrian  Xuereb  Rachel  Schembri  Michael  Mamo  Julian Alexander  Sapiano  Manuel 《Hydrogeology Journal》2021,29(4):1517-1537

Conventional hydrogeological practice is to formulate a conceptual model, which is often the basis of a numerical model. The numerical model is then used to test groundwater management strategies. A workflow is proposed, employing the numerically enhanced conceptual model (NECoM) of the Mean Sea Level Aquifer (MSLA) on the island of Malta. The Malta MSLA is overexploited and under threat of salinization. Data (heads, chloride concentrations, electrical conductivity logs, tidal tests and qualitative analyses) were assimilated into a fast-running numerical model. Simultaneously, strategies for optimal acquisition of further data were examined through the modelling process. The model was delivered through the Energy and Water Agency, with suggestions for flexible model deployment. These workflows will, hopefully, spawn model improvements through further revision of the base concepts. The model allows the agency to make predictions, which have uncertainties that are quantified and reduced through data assimilation as new data become available. Contemplated management plans can therefore be properly assessed before implementation. The proposed NECoM approach can be generalized since it bases model usage on the premise that modelling should make maximum use of existing data by assimilating its information content, thereby highlighting the uncertainties of decision-critical predictions that remain because of data insufficiency. Thus, the presently disjointed process of modelling on the one hand, and data acquisition on the other, can be better aligned. Conceptual and numerical model development become parallel, rather than sequential, activities. Together, they enable predictions of future system behaviour for which bias is reduced and uncertainties quantified.

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Geological and hydrogeological reconstruction of the main aquifers of the Maltese islands     

Barbagli  Alessio  Guastaldi  Enrico  Conti  Paolo  Giannuzzi  Miriana  Borsi  Iacopo  Lotti  Francesca  Basile  Paolo  Favaro  Lorenzo  Mallia  Adrian  Xuereb  Rachel  Schembri  Michael  Mamo  Julian Alexander  Sapiano  Manuel 《Hydrogeology Journal》2021,29(8):2685-2703

Hydrogeology Journal - Geological and hydrogeological conceptualizations of the five main aquifers of Malta were performed by means of characterization of the groundwater bodies’ geometries...  相似文献   

Water-table and discharge changes associated with the 2016–2017 seismic sequence in central Italy: hydrogeological data and a conceptual model for fractured carbonate aquifers     

Petitta  Marco  Mastrorillo  Lucia  Preziosi  Elisabetta  Banzato  Francesca  Barberio  Marino Domenico  Billi  Andrea  Cambi  Costanza  De Luca  Gaetano  Di Carlo  Giuseppe  Di Curzio  Diego  Di Salvo  Cristina  Nanni  Torquato  Palpacelli  Stefano  Rusi  Sergio  Saroli  Michele  Tallini  Marco  Tazioli  Alberto  Valigi  Daniela  Vivalda  Paola  Doglioni  Carlo 《Hydrogeology Journal》2018,26(4):1009-1026

A seismic sequence in central Italy from August 2016 to January 2017 affected groundwater dynamics in fractured carbonate aquifers. Changes in spring discharge, water-table position, and streamflow were recorded for several months following nine Mw 5.0–6.5 seismic events. Data from 22 measurement sites, located within 100 km of the epicentral zones, were analyzed. The intensity of the induced changes were correlated with seismic magnitude and distance to epicenters. The additional post-seismic discharge from rivers and springs was found to be higher than 9 m³/s, totaling more than 0.1 km³ of groundwater release over 6 months. This huge and unexpected contribution increased streamflow in narrow mountainous valleys to previously unmeasured peak values. Analogously to the L’Aquila 2009 post-earthquake phenomenon, these hydrogeological changes might reflect an increase of bulk hydraulic conductivity at the aquifer scale, which would increase hydraulic heads in the discharge zones and lower them in some recharge areas. The observed changes may also be partly due to other mechanisms, such as shaking and/or squeezing effects related to intense subsidence in the core of the affected area, where effects had maximum extent, or breaching of hydraulic barriers.

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Marbles and carbonate rocks from central Morocco: a petrographic,mineralogical and geochemical study     

Francesca Origlia  Elisabetta Gliozzo  Anna Gandin  Marco Meccheri  Jorge E. Spangenberg  Isabella Turbanti Memmi 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,66(1):209-222

Petrographic, mineralogical, and stable isotopes (δ¹³C, δ¹⁸O values) compositions were used to characterise marbles and sedimentary carbonate rocks from central Morocco, which are considered to be a likely source of ornamental and building material from Roman time to the present day. This new data set was used in the frame of an archaeometric provenance study on Roman artefacts from the town of Thamusida (Kenitra, north Morocco), to assess the potential employment of these rocks for the manufacture of the archaeological materials. A representative set of samples from marbles and other carbonate rocks (limestone, dolostone) were collected in several quarries and outcrops in the Moroccan Meseta, in a region extending from the Meknes–Khenifra alignment to the Atlantic Ocean. All the samples were studied using a petrographic, mineralogical and geochemical methods. The petrographic and minerological investigations (optical microscopy, electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction) allowed to group the carbonate rocks in limestones, foliated limestone, diagenetic breccias and dolostone. The limestones could be further grouped as mudstones, wackestones–packstones, crinoid grainstones, oolitic grainstone and floatstones. Textural differences allowed to define marbles varieties. The stable carbon and oxygen isotope composition proved to be quite useful in the discrimination of marble sources, with apparently less discriminatory potential for carbonate rocks.  相似文献   

Asbestos and other fibrous minerals contained in the serpentinites of the Gimigliano-Mount Reventino Unit (Calabria,S-Italy)   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Andrea Bloise  Teresa Critelli  Manuela Catalano  Carmine Apollaro  Domenico Miriello  Alessandro Croce  Eugenio Barrese  Francesca Liberi  Eugenio Piluso  Caterina Rinaudo  Elena Belluso 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(8):3773-3786

Serpentinites are metamorphic rocks with good technological properties and valuable ornamental characteristics, which have been exploited since ancient times. Actually, their use is limited and monitored in several countries worldwide because they can contain fibrous asbestos minerals that may be carcinogenic. Furthermore, certain types of fibrous minerals can be confused with asbestos, and must therefore be carefully investigated. We have investigated the possible presence of the asbestos and non-asbestos fibrous phases contained in serpentinitic rocks in a meta-ophiolitic sequence from the Gimigliano-Mount Reventino Unit (Southern Italy), which had not been previously assessed. The detection and quantification of asbestos and the correct distinction of the fibrous non-asbestos minerals are very important not only from a scientific point of view, but also from a legislative one. This is especially the case for the administrative agencies that have to take decisions with regards to the implementation of public and occupational health protection measures (e.g., in road yards and quarry excavations). As a consequence of this, serpentinitic rock samples have been characterized in detail through X-ray powder diffraction, scanning and transmission electron microscopy combined with energy-dispersive spectrometry, analytical electron microscopy (SEM–EDS and TEM–AEM), differential scanning calorimetry, thermogravimetry and micro-Raman spectroscopy. Two kinds of asbestos and four kinds of non-asbestos fibrous silicates have been detected in the examined samples. In order of decreasing abundance these are polygonal serpentine, chrysotile, fibrous antigorite, tremolite, gedrite and magnesiohornblende. The size, morphology, crystallinity and chemical composition of the fibres were also discussed, in the light of the possible role these properties could play in the carcinogenic effect on human health.  相似文献   

Comparison of pumping at constant head and at a constant rate for determining the sustainable yield of a well     

Antonella Baiocchi  Francesca Lotti  Simone M. Piacentini  Vincenzo Piscopo 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(4):989-996

Determining the yield of a production well remains one of the main problems in hydrogeological studies. Starting from the results of a 3-year-long monitoring of a continuously exploited well functioning at constant head (i.e., at a variable discharge rate), a new pumping style has been examined using numerical models. The objective is to control the impact of pumping on the aquifer in accordance with the principle of sustainability. Different models were developed in a transient state and were calibrated using discharge data of the well during the recession periods. Successively, the trends of the residual outflow from the aquifer system with the well operating at variable discharge and at constant discharge were simulated. The results indicate that the ratio of the volume of water pumped from the well to the volume of residual outflow is a significant indicator of the sustainability of groundwater withdrawals. Modeling confirms that a constant discharge rate can be derived from the information gained through a preliminary production phase of a well at constant head. This approach appears to be particularly useful when the problem is determining the sustainable yield of a single well from aquifers with low hydraulic diffusivity.  相似文献   

Petrology of potassic alkaline ultramafic and carbonatitic rocks from Planalto da Serra (Mato Grosso State), Brazil     

Piero Comin-Chiaramonti  Celso B. Gomes  Angelo De Min  Excelso Ruberti  Vicente A. V. Girardi  Francesca Slejko  Renato D. Neder  Francisco E. C. Pinho 《Central European Journal of Geosciences》2014,6(4):565-587

The Planalto da Serra igneous rocks form plugs, necks and dykes of carbonate-rich ultramafic lamprophyres (aillikites and glimmerites with kamafugitic affinity) and carbonatites (alvikites and beforsites). Phlogopite and/or tetraphlogopite, diopside and melanitic garnet are restricted to aillikitic rock-types, whereas pyroclore occurs only in carbonatites. Aillikites and carbonatites are altered to hydrotermalites, having chlorite and serpentine as dominant minerals. Planalto da Serra igneous rock association has kamafugitic affinity (i.e. effusive, ultrapotassic. High LREE/HREE fractionation, incompatible elements data and Sr-Nd isotopes, suggest that the K-ultramafic alkaline and carbonatite rocks originated from a variably metasomatized mantle source enriched in radiogenic Sr. Crustal contamination is negligible or absent. Age values of 600 Ma rule out the geochronological relationship between the investigated intrusions and the Mesozoic alkaline bodies from the Azimuth 125° lineament. The TDM model ages allow to conclude that Planalto da Serra magma is derived from the partial melting of a mantle source metasomatised by K-rich carbonatated melt during the Early to Late Neoproterozoic. On the basis of alkaline magmatism repetitions at 600 Ma and 90–80 Ma we question the subsistence of a stationary mantle plume for so long time.  相似文献