Effects of climate change and urban development on the distribution and conservation of vegetation in a Mediterranean type ecosystem     

Bray J. Beltrán  Janet Franklin  Alexandra D. Syphard  Helen M. Regan  Lorraine E. Flint  Alan L. Flint 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(8):1561-1589

Climate and land-use changes are projected to threaten biodiversity over this century. However, few studies have considered the spatial and temporal overlap of these threats to evaluate how ongoing land-use change could affect species ranges projected to shift outside conservation areas. We evaluated climate change and urban development effects on vegetation distribution in the Southwest ecoregion, California Floristic Province, USA. We also evaluated how well a conservation network protects suitable habitat for rare plant species under these change projections and identified primary sources of uncertainty. We used consensus-based maps from three species distribution models (SDMs) to project current and future suitable habitat for 19 species representing different functional types (defined by fire-response – obligate seeders, resprouting shrubs – and life forms – herbs, subshrubs), and range sizes (large/common, small/rare). We used one spatially explicit urban growth projection; two climate models, emission scenarios, and probability thresholds applied to SDMs; and high-resolution (90 m) environmental data. We projected that suitable habitat could disappear for 4 species and decrease for 15 by 2080. Averaged centroids of suitable habitat (all species) were projected to shift tens (up to hundreds) of kilometers. Herbs showed a small-projected response to climate change, while obligate seeders could suffer the greatest losses. Several rare species could lose suitable habitat inside conservation areas while increasing area outside. We concluded that (i) climate change is more important than urban development for vegetation habitat loss in this ecoregion through 2080 due to diminishing amounts of undeveloped private land in this region; (ii) the existing conservation plan, while extensive, may be inadequate to protect plant diversity under projected patterns of climate change and urban development, (iii) regional assessments of the dynamics of the drivers of biodiversity change based on high-resolution environmental data and consensus predictive mapping, such as this study, are necessary to identify the species expected to be the most vulnerable and to meaningfully inform regional-scale conservation.  相似文献   

Measuring What? “Success” and “Failure” in Ghana's Oil Industry     

Franklin Obeng-Odoom 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(6):656-670

This article analyzes the dominant ways in which questions of oil prospecting, exploration, and production are framed and outcomes measured. Using the case of Ghana, a critical institutional approach, and drawing on multiple sources of data, it shows how existing policy overlooks the structural complexities of distribution, empowerment, and corruption. Willing local institutions can make a difference, but they too have structural impediments to overcome. Thus, for now, grand statements about “success” or “failure” in the management and use of oil economies need to be taken with caution.  相似文献   

Testing of Sydney dimension sandstone for use in the conservation of heritage buildings     

B. J. Franklin  J. F. Young  R. Powell 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2014,61(3):351-362

This paper deals with the scientific assessment of the physical properties of sandstone used in the conservation of Sydney's historic heritage sandstone buildings. The local Hawkesbury Sandstone has been widely used for all manner of constructions since the early days of the first settlement. In the nineteenth century, dimension sandstone quarries existed all over the Sydney region, and the demand for the stone was great. During this time, a true ‘freestone’ known as ‘yellow block’ sandstone, in which bedding planes were absent, was quarried extensively. This sandstone is also known as a ‘self-colouring’ sandstone, where the rock, although grey when quarried, turns a yellow–brown after a few months exposure to the atmosphere. It can be easily carved and was eminently suitable for the ornate Victorian architecture of the time. There are very few quarries within the Sydney region today capable of producing ‘yellow block’ sandstone. Whenever possible, sandstone from suitable building excavations, particularly on the Pyrmont Peninsula, is used for this work. Conservation work is extremely expensive and the building elements that most need replacement, the overhanging and decorative elements, are usually those that cost the most. It is essential that the most durable replacement stone be selected. Thus, a strict regime of scientific testing is used for any major conservation project, in order to determine the physical properties of possible replacement stone. This is the province of the geologist and involves visual observation in the quarry or excavation, which is a simple, cost-effective means of weeding out poor quality stones, followed by laboratory engineering tests to establish the physical parameters of a sandstone and finally, petrographic analysis. The results of such tests, combined with careful sampling, ensure the best possible quality of replacement material.  相似文献   

Sulfur chemistry in the middle atmosphere of Venus     

Xi Zhang  Mao Chang Liang  Franklin P. Mills  Denis A. Belyaev  Yuk L. Yung 《Icarus》2012,217(2):714-739

Venus Express measurements of the vertical profiles of SO and SO₂ in the middle atmosphere of Venus provide an opportunity to revisit the sulfur chemistry above the middle cloud tops (～58 km). A one dimensional photochemistry-diffusion model is used to simulate the behavior of the whole chemical system including oxygen-, hydrogen-, chlorine-, sulfur-, and nitrogen-bearing species. A sulfur source is required to explain the SO₂ inversion layer above 80 km. The evaporation of the aerosols composed of sulfuric acid (model A) or polysulfur (model B) above 90 km could provide the sulfur source. Measurements of SO₃ and SO (a¹Δ → X³Σ^-) emission at 1.7 μm may be the key to distinguish between the two models.  相似文献   

(Re-)negotiating access: The politics of researching skills and knowledge for ‘sustainable communities’     

Julie Newton  Alex Franklin  Jennie Middleton  Terry Marsden 《Geoforum》2012,43(3):585-594

The last decade has witnessed a surge of interest in ‘sustainable communities’ within the UK. This has stimulated a plethora of research aimed at acquiring a better understanding of what ‘sustainable communities’ might look like and how they can be achieved. However, this has not been accompanied by a reflection and interrogation of the actual processes, challenges and politics of doing ‘sustainable communities’ research. This paper addresses this gap by highlighting the importance of paying attention to the on-going process of negotiating access when carrying out sustainability research at the community level. We draw on a recent study of skills and knowledge for ‘sustainable communities’ in Stroud Gloucestershire, UK, to illustrate the importance of sensitivity to social relationships throughout and beyond the research trajectory within sustainability research. Our experience raises important questions about the politics of research practices when doing sustainability research ‘with’ communities and the challenges associated with participatory approaches as a means to demonstrate research impact. We argue that in developing a fuller understanding of why and how different types of community level initiatives can contribute to the ‘sustainable communities’ agenda, greater consideration needs to be given to how these community practices can be better supported through the process of doing academic research.  相似文献   

This is your journal     

FW Schwartz 《Ground water》2012,50(5):655-656

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Chaos: Without a Conservation Ethic for Water     

Franklin W. Schwartz 《Ground water》2012,50(6):819-819

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美国西部近8000年来树木年轮重建降雨量序列中的气候突变   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

谷湘潜  江剑民  Roy MENDELSSOHN 《地理学报(英文版)》2005,15(3):259-272

1 IntroductionThe U niversity of A rizona Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research collected tree-ring sam ples from anum ber of long-lived trees, dating back thousands of years, from eight states in the w esternU nited States. H ughes and G raum lich (1996) pres…  相似文献   

Major- and trace-element characterization, expanded distribution, and a new chronology for the latest Pleistocene Glacier Peak tephras in western North America     

Stephen C. Kuehn  Duane G. Froese  Franklin F. Foit Jr.  Peter Rotheisler 《Quaternary Research》2009,71(2):201-47

The Glacier Peak tephra beds are among the most widespread and arguably some of the most important late Pleistocene chronostratigraphic markers in western North America. These beds represent a series of closely-spaced Plinian and sub-Plinian eruptions from Glacier Peak, Washington. The two most widespread beds, Glacier Peak ‘G’ and ‘B’, are reliably distinguished by their glass major and trace element abundances. These beds are also more broadly distributed than previously considered, covering at least 550,000 and 260,000 km², respectively. A third bed, the Irvine bed, known only from southern Alberta, is similar in its major-element composition to the Glacier Peak G bed, but it shows considerable differences in trace element concentrations. The Irvine bed is likely considerably older than the G and B tephras and probably records an additional Plinian eruption, perhaps also from Glacier Peak but from a different magma than G through B. A review of the published radiocarbon ages, new ages in this study, and consideration in a Bayesian framework suggest that the widespread G and B beds are several hundred years older than widely assumed. Our revised age is about 11,600 ¹⁴C yr BP or a calibrated age (at 2 sigma) of 13,710-13,410 cal yr BP.  相似文献   

Automated calibration applied to watershed‐scale flow simulations     

Zhongbo Yu  Franklin W. Schwartz 《水文研究》1999,13(2):191-209

Complexity in simulating the hydrological response in large watersheds over long times has prompted a significant need for procedures for automatic calibration. Such a procedure is implemented in the basin‐scale hydrological model (BSHM), a physically based distributed parameter watershed model. BSHM simulates the most important basin‐scale hydrological processes, such as overland flow, groundwater flow and stream–aquifer interaction in watersheds. Here, the emphasis is on estimating the groundwater parameters with water levels in wells and groundwater baseflows selected as the calibration targets. The best set of parameters is selected from within plausible ranges of parameters by adjusting the values of hydraulic conductivity, storativity, groundwater recharge and stream bed permeability. The baseflow is determined from stream flow hydrographs by using an empirical scheme validated using a chemical approach to hydrograph separation. Field studies determined that the specific conductance for components of the composite hydrograph were sufficiently unique to make the chemical approach feasible. The method was applied to the Big Darby Creek Watershed, Ohio. The parameter set selected for the groundwater system provides a good fit with the estimated baseflow and observed water well data. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献