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The projected climate change signals of a five-member high resolution ensemble, based on two global climate models (GCMs: ECHAM5 and CCCma3) and two regional climate models (RCMs: CLM and WRF) are analysed in this paper (Part II of a two part paper). In Part I the performance of the models for the control period are presented. The RCMs use a two nest procedure over Europe and Germany with a final spatial resolution of 7 km to downscale the GCM simulations for the present (1971–2000) and future A1B scenario (2021–2050) time periods. The ensemble was extended by earlier simulations with the RCM REMO (driven by ECHAM5, two realisations) at a slightly coarser resolution. The climate change signals are evaluated and tested for significance for mean values and the seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation, as well as for the intensity distribution of precipitation and the numbers of dry days and dry periods. All GCMs project a significant warming over Europe on seasonal and annual scales and the projected warming of the GCMs is retained in both nests of the RCMs, however, with added small variations. The mean warming over Germany of all ensemble members for the fine nest is in the range of 0.8 and 1.3 K with an average of 1.1 K. For mean annual precipitation the climate change signal varies in the range of ?2 to 9 % over Germany within the ensemble. Changes in the number of wet days are projected in the range of ±4 % on the annual scale for the future time period. For the probability distribution of precipitation intensity, a decrease of lower intensities and an increase of moderate and higher intensities is projected by most ensemble members. For the mean values, the results indicate that the projected temperature change signal is caused mainly by the GCM and its initial condition (realisation), with little impact from the RCM. For precipitation, in addition, the RCM affects the climate change signal significantly.  相似文献   
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In the southern Argentine Andes, ten advances of valley glaciers were used to reconstruct the late-glacial and Holocene glacier history. The accumulation areas of these glaciers lie in the Precordillera and are thus independent of fluctuations of the South Patagonian Icefield. Like the Viedma outlet glacier, the valley glaciers advanced three times during late-glacial time (14,000–10,000 yr B.P.). The youngest advance correlates with the Younger Dryas Stade, based on two minimum AMS14C dates of 9588 and 9482 yr B.P. The second oldest advance occurred before 11,800 yr B.P. During the first half of the Holocene, (ca. 10,000–5000 yr B.P.), advances culminated about 8500, 8000–7500, and 5800–5500 yr B.P. During the second half of the Holocene, advances occurred between ca. 4500 and 4200 yr B.P., as well as between 3600 and 3300 yr B.P. In the Río Cóndor valley three subsequent advances have been identified.  相似文献   
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Gudehus  Gerd 《Acta Geotechnica》2020,15(5):1173-1187
Acta Geotechnica - The dynamics of grain fabrics is captured by means of a hidden state variable , named eutaraxy, which quantifies the propensity for a heat-like micro-seismicity due to disturbing...  相似文献   
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A large multi-institutional nearshore field experiment was conducted at Truc Vert, on the Atlantic coast of France in early 2008. Truc Vert’08 was designed to measure beach change on a long, sandy stretch of coast without engineering works with emphasis on large winter waves (offshore significant wave height up to 8 m), a three-dimensional morphology, and macro-tidal conditions. Nearshore wave transformation, circulation and bathymetric changes involve coupled processes at many spatial and temporal scales thus implying the need to improve our knowledge for the full spectrum of scales to achieve a comprehensive view of the natural system. This experiment is unique when compared with existing experiments because of the simultaneous investigation of processes at different scales, both spatially (from ripples to sand banks) and temporally (from single swash events to several spring-neap tidal cycles, including a major storm event). The purpose of this paper is to provide background information on the experiment by providing detailed presentation of the instrument layout and snapshots of preliminary results.  相似文献   
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During the last two decades, the first generation of beam combiners at the Very Large Telescope Interferometer has proved the importance of optical interferometry for high-angular resolution astrophysical studies in the near- and mid-infrared. With the advent of 4-beam combiners at the VLTI, the u ? v coverage per pointing increases significantly, providing an opportunity to use reconstructed images as powerful scientific tools. Therefore, interferometric imaging is already a key feature of the new generation of VLTI instruments, as well as for other interferometric facilities like CHARA and JWST. It is thus imperative to account for the current image reconstruction capabilities and their expected evolutions in the coming years. Here, we present a general overview of the current situation of optical interferometric image reconstruction with a focus on new wavelength-dependent information, highlighting its main advantages and limitations. As an Appendix we include several cookbooks describing the usage and installation of several state-of-the art image reconstruction packages. To illustrate the current capabilities of the software available to the community, we recovered chromatic images, from simulated MATISSE data, using the MCMC software SQUEEZE. With these images, we aim at showing the importance of selecting good regularization functions and their impact on the reconstruction.  相似文献   
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A list of reports of Lunar Transient Phenomena (LTP) which have been observed in 1972 and 1973 by an international group of amateur astronomers is given. From 907 monitoring observations (1972: 526, 1973: 381) 92 LTP (74 reliable, 18 possible individual sightings) have been reported (1972: 52, 1973: 40) including parallel observations of the same event. The LTP were brightenings, shadings, flashes, colours, moving clouds and brightness diminutions of stars before occultations. 45 LTP events may be expected to be real in a catalogue of criteria for the reliability of observations. Sixteen events have been reported by several independent observers. A short examination of the temporal distributions of monitoring observations and recorded LTP is given.  相似文献   
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