Comparative assessment of Japan's long-term carbon budget under different effort-sharing principles     

Takeshi Kuramochi  Jusen Asuka  Hanna Fekete  Kentaro Tamura  Niklas Höhne 《Climate Policy》2016,16(8):1029-1047

This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2?°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget.

The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550?ppm CO₂e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, Japan's GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets.

Policy relevance

In previous climate mitigation target formulation processes for 2020 and 2030 in Japan, neither equity principles nor long-term management of cumulative GHG emissions was at the centre of discussion. This article quantitatively assesses how much more GHGs Japan can emit by 2100 to achieve the 2?°C target in light of different effort-sharing approaches, and how Japan's GHG emissions can be managed up to 2100. The long-term implications of recent energy policy developments following the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the calculated carbon budgets are also discussed.  相似文献   

High-frequency Earth rotation variations deduced from altimetry-based ocean tides     

Matthias Madzak  Michael Schindelegger  Johannes Böhm  Wolfgang Bosch  Jan Hagedoorn 《Journal of Geodesy》2016,90(11):1237-1253

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Thermal maturity and petroleum kitchen areas of Liassic Black Shales (Lower Jurassic) in the central Upper Rhine Graben,Germany     

Johannes Böcker  Ralf Littke 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2016,105(2):611-636

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Structural control on the kinematics of the deep-seated La Clapière landslide revealed by L-band InSAR observations   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

R. Schlögel  J.-P. Malet  C. Doubre  T. Lebourg 《Landslides》2016,13(5):1005-1018

The objective of this work is to document the deformation pattern of the deep-seated La Clapière landslide for the period 2007–2010 from the combination of L-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferograms, ground-based total station measurements and identification of the slope geomorphological structures. The interferograms are calculated for pairs of ALOS/PALSAR images at a time interval of 46 days. The displacement field derived from the interferograms reveals a non-uniform displacement gradient from the top (subsidence) to the bottom (accumulation). Vertical velocities are calculated from the unwrapped phase values and are in good agreement with ground-based measurements. The results demonstrate the potential of L-band ALOS/PALSAR imagery for the monitoring of active landslides characterized by complex kinematic patterns and by important changes in the soil surface backscattering in time.  相似文献   

Harmonising the lithostratigraphic nomenclature: towards a uniform geological dataset of Switzerland     

Stefan Strasky  Alain Morard  Andreas Möri 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2016,109(2):123-136

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A bridge over troubled water: A contextual analysis of social vulnerability to climate change in a riverine landscape in south-east Norway     

Vegard Gundersen  Bjørn Petter Kaltenborn  Daniel R. Williams 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2016,70(4):216-229

Local communities in the Gudbrandsdalen region in Norway are increasingly exposed to climate-induced hazards such as floods and landslides. A core question is how community members respond to climate change and what factors contribute to more resilient communities. The authors used a contextual approach to analyze data from semi-structured interviews along five dimensions. In Gaustad Muncipality they found that individuals’ motivation to adapt to climate change depended largely on subjective values such as identity, place attachment, cultural values, and social networks among individuals, which means it is crucial that strategic plans for adaptation to climate change at different policy levels are experienced as relevant by community members. While the studied community has experienced heavy floods in river systems and streams, little evidence of adaptation was observed. Instead, they appeared to adopt coping strategies. Landowners may have limited incentives to adapt to climate change due to contraproductive policy measures such as economic compensation for direct losses without requiring improved practices. Effective adaptation to climate change on the local level is likely to require making compensation mechanisms contingent upon landowners showing willingness to change from coping to adaptive practices, as well as a contextualized approach integrating local and scientific forms of knowledge.  相似文献   

The impact of salt on the late Messinian to recent tectonostratigraphic evolution of the Cyprus subduction zone          下载免费PDF全文

Sönke Reiche  Christian Hübscher  Axel Ehrhardt 《Basin Research》2016,28(5):569-597

Messinian evaporites of locally more than 3‐km thickness occupy the subduction zone between Cyprus and Eratosthenes Seamount. Based on a dense grid of seismic reflection profiles, we report on compressional salt tectonics and its impact on the Late Miocene to Quaternary structural evolution of the Cyprus subduction zone. Results show that evaporites have experienced significant post‐Messinian shortening along the plate boundary. Shortening has initiated allochthonous salt advance between Cyprus and Eratosthenes Seamount, representing an excellent example of salt which efficiently escapes subduction and accretion. Further east, between Eratosthenes Seamount and the Hecataeus Rise, evaporites were compressionally inflated without having advanced across post‐Messinian strata. Such differences in the magnitude of salt tectonic shortening may reflect a predominately north–south oriented post‐Messinian convergence direction, raising the possibility of a later coupling between the motion of Cyprus and Anatolia than previously thought. Along the area bordered by Cyprus and Eratosthenes Seamount a prominent step in the seafloor represents the northern boundary of a controversially debated semi‐circular depression. Coinciding with the southern edge of the salt sheet, this bathymetric feature is suggested to have formed as a consequence of compressional salt inflation and seamount‐directed salt advance. Topographic lows on top of highly deformed evaporites are locally filled by up to 700 m of late Messinian sediments. The uppermost 200 m of these sediments were drilled in the course of ODP Leg 160 and interpreted to represent Lago Mare‐type deposits (Robertson, Tectonophysics, 1998d, 298 , 63‐82). Lago Mare deposits are spatially restricted to the western part of the subduction zone, pinching out towards the east whereas presumably continuing into the Herodotus Basin further west. We suggest a sea level control on late Messinian Lago Mare sedimentation, facilitating sediment delivery into basinal areas whereas inhibiting Lago Mare deposition into the desiccated Levant Basin. Locally, early salt deformation is believed to have provided additional accommodation space for Lago Mare sedimentation, resulting in the presently observed minibasin‐like geometry.  相似文献   

Zircon M127 – A Homogeneous Reference Material for SIMS U–Pb Geochronology Combined with Hafnium,Oxygen and,Potentially, Lithium Isotope Analysis          下载免费PDF全文

Lutz Nasdala  Fernando Corfu  John W. Valley  Michael J. Spicuzza  Fu‐Yuan Wu  Qiu‐Li Li  Yue‐Heng Yang  Chris Fisher  Carsten Münker  Allen K. Kennedy  Peter W. Reiners  Andreas Kronz  Michael Wiedenbeck  Richard Wirth  Chutimun Chanmuang  Manuela Zeug  Tamás Váczi  Nicholas Norberg  Tobias Häger  Alfred Kröner  Wolfgang Hofmeister 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2016,40(4):457-475

In this article, we document a detailed analytical characterisation of zircon M127, a homogeneous 12.7 carat gemstone from Ratnapura, Sri Lanka. Zircon M127 has TIMS‐determined mean U–Pb radiogenic isotopic ratios of 0.084743 ± 0.000027 for ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U and 0.67676 ± 0.00023 for ²⁰⁷Pb/²³⁵U (weighted means, 2s uncertainties). Its ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age of 524.36 ± 0.16 Ma (95% confidence uncertainty) is concordant within the uncertainties of decay constants. The δ¹⁸O value (determined by laser fluorination) is 8.26 ± 0.06‰ VSMOW (2s), and the mean ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf ratio (determined by solution ICP‐MS) is 0.282396 ± 0.000004 (2s). The SIMS‐determined δ⁷Li value is ?0.6 ± 0.9‰ (2s), with a mean mass fraction of 1.0 ± 0.1 μg g^?1 Li (2s). Zircon M127 contains ~ 923 μg g^?1 U. The moderate degree of radiation damage corresponds well with the time‐integrated self‐irradiation dose of 1.82 × 10¹⁸ alpha events per gram. This observation, and the (U–Th)/He age of 426 ± 7 Ma (2s), which is typical of unheated Sri Lankan zircon, enable us to exclude any thermal treatment. Zircon M127 is proposed as a reference material for the determination of zircon U–Pb ages by means of SIMS in combination with hafnium and stable isotope (oxygen and potentially also lithium) determination.  相似文献   

Large-scale,seasonal flood risk analysis for agricultural crops in Germany     

Stefan Klaus  Heidi Kreibich  Bruno Merz  Bernd Kuhlmann  Kai Schröter 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(18):1289

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MODSNOW-Tool: an operational tool for daily snow cover monitoring using MODIS data     

A. Gafurov  S. Lüdtke  K. Unger-Shayesteh  S. Vorogushyn  T. Schöne  S. Schmidt  O. Kalashnikova  B. Merz 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(14):1078

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