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51.
Synthetic seismograms (P-SV and SH waves) have been calculated along six profiles in Santiago de Cuba basin, with a cutoff frequency of 5 Hz, by using a hybrid approach (modal summation for a regional 1D structure plus finite differences for a local 2D structure embedded in the first). They correspond to a scenario earthquake of MS=7 that may occur in Oriente fault zone, directly south of the city. As initial data for a seismic microzoning, the characterisation of earthquake effects has been made considering several relative (2D/1D) quantities (PGDR, PGVR, PGAR, DGAR, IAR—ratios of peak ground values of displacement, velocity and acceleration, and of design ground acceleration and Arias intensity-, etc.) and functions representative of the ground motion characteristics in soil (2D) with respect to bedrock (1D). The functions are the response spectra ratio RSR(f), already routinely used in this kind of work, and the elastic energy input ratio EIR(f), defined, for the first time, in this paper. These data, sampled at 115 sites within all the profiles have been classified in two steps, using logical combinatory algorithms: connected components and compact sets. In the first step, from the original ground motion parameters or functions extracted from the synthetic seismograms, nine sets have been classified and the partial results show the spatial distribution of the soil behaviour as a function of the component of motion. In the second step, the results of the classification of the nine sets have been used as input for a further classification that shows a spatial distribution of sites with a quasi-homogeneous integral ground motion behaviour. By adding the available geological surface data, a microzoning scheme of Santiago de Cuba basin has been obtained.  相似文献   
52.
For any earthquake, the slipping fault and the source of high-frequency seismic waves, by and large, coincide. On a more local scale, however, the areas of high seismic slip rate and of increased high-frequency radiation output (seismic luminosity) need not match. To study in some detail how slip rate and seismic luminosity are interrelated, a systematic study is performed that uses 251 records of teleseismic P waves from 23 intermediate-depth earthquakes of magnitude 6.8 and above. From a broadband trace we extract two time histories: (1) displacement and (2) 0.5–2.5 Hz band-passed and squared velocity, or ``HF power', and calculate correlation coefficient, ρ between the two. To reduce the bias related to formation of P coda, a special procedure is applied to data. We estimated the average value ρ = 0.52 (range of event averages 0.35 to 0.65) for the correlation coefficient between the radiated time histories for displacement and ``HF power', which is considerably below the ``ideal' value of unity. We argue that the same or even lower value characterizes the degree of slip rate - seismic luminosity correlation at the fault. Two factors may contribute to the revealed decorrelation: (1) random fluctuations of observed HF power (inevitable for a signal with a limited bandwidth), and (2) the genuine mismatch of slip rate and mean luminosity. We show that these factors, acting separately, would result in the ρ values equal to, correspondingly, 0.72 and 0.80. We also show that genuine decorrelation is statistically significant. We conclude that the observed values of ρ indicate genuine differences between the distributions of the slip rate and the seismic luminosity over the fault area. These results provide important constraints both for the accurate wide-band simulation of strong ground motion and for theoretical dynamic source models.  相似文献   
53.
This work aims to provide a dynamic assessment of flood risk and community resilience by explicitly accounting for variable human behaviour, e.g. risk-taking and awareness-raising attitudes. We consider two different types of socio-hydrological systems: green systems, whereby societies deal with risk only via non-structural measures, and technological systems, whereby risk is dealt with also by structural measures, such as levees. A stylized model of human–flood interactions is first compared to real-world data collected at two test sites (People’s Republic of Bangladesh and the city of Rome, Italy) and then used to explore plausible trajectories of flood risk. The results show that flood risk in technological systems tends to be significantly lower than in green systems. However, technological systems may undergo catastrophic events, which lead to much higher losses. Furthermore, green systems prove to be more resilient than technological ones, which makes them more capable of withstanding environmental and social changes.
EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned  相似文献   
54.
The response of a closed basin to wind forcing has been studied extensively, but the role of turbulence anisotropy coupled with spatial wind inhomogeneity has never been considered explicitly. An analytical solution is presented for steady state hydrodynamics, considering the central part of a constant-depth, elongated basin with a laterally varying wind, and a homogeneous, yet anisotropic, eddy viscosity tensor. The solution is derived both for a single-layer and for a two-layer basin, which is representative of a stratified lake with a well-developed thermocline. Since the focus is on the short-term barotropic reaction to wind forcing, which determines the type of lake circulation, baroclinic effects are neglected as a first approximation. In this case, the development of planimetric (depth-averaged) circulation superimposed on circulation in the vertical plane can be determined as a function of wind lateral variation and a few dimensionless parameters. The relevance of such an analytical solution is twofold. Firstly, the knowledge of the prevailing circulation can help in the choice of the best type of numerical model (three-dimensional vs. two-dimensional, depth- or lateral-averaged). Secondly, it shows the importance of correct estimates of both vertical and horizontal eddy viscosity, whereas the latter is not usually considered as an important parameter in lake hydrodynamics modeling.  相似文献   
55.
The Santa Maria di Collemaggio Basilica is an important cultural heritage site and exemplifies Romanesque-Gothic art in the Abruzzo region (central Italy). Erected in the second half of the XII century, the Basilica was severely damaged during the April 6, 2009 L’Aquila earthquake (MW 6.1). In particular, the area of the transept collapsed causing the dome to fall. A refined two-dimensional (2D) geotechnical model was built representing a section that includes the Basilica, in order to better understand the soil response of the Basilica site. The subsoil model was constrained using the geophysical and geotechnical data collected from the seismic microzonation studies, the reconstruction of private damaged buildings and other technical and scientific studies realized in the L’Aquila basin and in the area of the Basilica before and after L’Aquila earthquake. 2D site response analyses were performed to verify the presence of local site effects by comparing simulated versus experimental transfer functions. Moreover, a frequency–wavenumber (f–k) analysis was executed with the aim of evaluating the occurrence of surface waves generated within the basin. 2D seismic effects involve significant amplification in the period range of engineering interest, therein providing an appropriate elastic response spectrum for the restoration of the Basilica.  相似文献   
56.
In the framework of forest resources conservation, this study aims to understand the dynamic and the genetic structure of sessile oak forests in Calabria, Italy. Two old populations of sessile oak(Quercus petraea(Mattuschka) Liebl.) from two areas of Sila and Aspromonte massifs in Calabria were analyzed for genetic diversity and population structure based on 6 nuclear simple sequence repeat(nSSR) and 4 chloroplastic SSR(cpSSR) loci. The populations displayed high amount of genetic diversity, which was toughly structured according to their geographical origins. Number of alleles at SSR loci ranged from 11 to 20 with an average of 13.5 per locus. Gene diversity(expected heterozygosity, He) estimates ranged from 0.575 to 0.834 with a mean of 0.749. The observed heterozygosity(Ho) was on average 0.458 ranging from 0.150 to 0.682. Polymorphism information content(PIC) values ranged from 0.625 to 0.865 with an average of 0.787. The analysis of molecular variance(AMOVA) highlighted a significant higher estimated variance within populations compared to among populations. Finally, the analysis of haplotypes by using cpSSR suggested a higher diversification in the population from Sila. Hierarchical clustering analysis grouped the genotypes into two major clusters, which agreed with the geographic origin of populations, and was confirmed by the Discriminant Analysis of Principal Components(DAPC). The first cluster included plants/population from Sila massif, while the second encompassed mostly plants/population sampled in Aspromonte massif. Finally, model-based clustering by STRUCTURE analysis also supported the presence of clear genetic structuring in the collection with two major populations(K=2) supported to PCoA analysis as well. Finally, our data indicated the Aspromonte population as a marginal forest with fragmented distribution suggesting different strategies of preservation than in Sila massif.  相似文献   
57.
58.
The intraplate Cameroon Volcanic Line (CVL) straddles the African-South Atlantic continent-ocean boundary and is composed mainly of alkaline basic volcanic rocks. Voluminous silicic volcanics characterize the continental sector of the CVL. We present here new geochemical, isotopic (Sr-Nd-O) and 40Ar/39Ar geochronological data on the main silicic volcanic centres of the Western (Mt. Oku, Sabga and Mt. Bambouto) and Eastern (Ngaoundere plateau) Cameroon Highlands. The silicic volcanism of Mt. Oku, Sabga and Mt. Bambouto occurred between 25 and 15 Ma and is represented by voluminous quartz-normative trachytes and minor rhyolitic ignimbrites. At Mt. Bambouto central volcano about 700 m of silicic volcanics erupted in less than 2.7 million years. These silicic volcanics are associated with slightly to moderately alkaline basalts and minor basanites. In general, onset of the silicic volcanism migrated from NE (Oku: 25 Ma) to SW (Sabga: 23 Ma; Bambouto: 18 Ma; and Mt. Manengouba: 12 Ma). The silicic volcanism of the Ngaoundere plateau (eastern branch of the CVL) is instead dominated by nepheline-normative trachytes which are associated with strongly alkaline basalts and basanitic rocks. These Ne-trachytes are younger (11-9 Ma) than the Q-trachytes of the Western Highlands. The least differentiated silicic volcanics are isotopically similar (87Sr/86Sr < 0.70380; 143Nd/144Nd > 0.51278) to the associated alkaline basalts suggesting differentiation processes without appreciable interaction with crustal materials. Such interactions may, however, have played some role in the genesis of the most evolved silicic volcanics which have 87Sr/86Sr as high as 0.705–0.714. Fractional crystallization is the preferred mechanism for genesis of the silicic melts of both Western and Eastern Highlands, as shown by modeling major and trace element variations. The genesis of the least evolved Q-trachytes from the Western Highlands, starting from slightly to moderately alkaline basalts, is compatible with fractionation of dominantly plagioclase, clinopyroxene and magnetite. Crystal fractionation may have occurred at low pressure and at QFM buffer f O2conditions. Parental magmas of the Ngaoundere Ne-trachytes are likely instead to have been strongly alkaline basalts which evolved through crystal fractionation at higher P (6-2 kbar) and f O2 (QFM + 2). The migration (25 to 12 Ma) of the silicic volcanism from NE to SW in the continental sector of the CVL is reminiscent of that (31-5 Ma) of the onset of the basic volcanism in the oceanic sector (Principe to Pagalu islands) of the CVL. These ages, and that (11-9 Ma) of the silicic volcanism of the Ngaoundere plateau, indicate that the Cameroon Volcanic Line as a whole may not be easily interpreted as the surface expression of hot-spot magmatism. Received: 24 February 1998 / Accepted: 22 September 1998  相似文献   
59.
Geological and geodynamic models of the mantle often rely on joint interpretations of published seismic tomography images and petrological/geochemical data. This approach tends to neglect the fundamental limitations of, and uncertainties in, seismic tomography results. These limitations and uncertainties involve theory, correcting for the crust, the lack of rays throughout much of the mantle, the difficulty in obtaining the true strength of anomalies, choice of what background model to subtract to reveal anomalies, and what cross‐sections to select for publication. The aim of this review is to provide a relatively non‐technical summary of the most important of these problems, collected together in a single paper, and presented in a form accessible to non‐seismologists. Appreciation of these issues is essential if final geodynamic models are to be robust, and required by the scientific observations.  相似文献   
60.
ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.  相似文献   
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