China’s rapid economic development greatly affected not only the global economy but also the entire environment of the Earth. Forecasting China’s economic growth has become a popular and essential issue but at present, such forecasts are nearly all conducted at the national scale. In this study, we use nighttime light images and the gridded Landscan population dataset to disaggregate gross domestic product (GDP) reported at the province scale on a per pixel level for 2000–2013. Using the disaggregated GDP time series data and the statistical tool of Holt–Winters smoothing, we predict changes of GDP at each 1 km × 1 km grid area from 2014 to 2020 and then aggregate the pixel-level GDP to forecast economic growth in 23 major urban agglomerations of China. We elaborate and demonstrate that lit population (brightness of nighttime lights × population) is a better indicator than brightness of nighttime lights to estimate and disaggregate GDP. We also show that our forecast GDP has high agreement with the National Bureau of Statistics of China’s demographic data and the International Monetary Fund’s predictions. Finally, we display uncertainties and analyze potential errors of this disaggregation and forecast method. 相似文献
Accurate, high-resolution precipitation data is important for hydrological applications and water resource management, particularly within mountainous areas about which data is presently scarce. The goal of the this study was to assess the accuracy of TRMM 3B43 precipitation data from the southwest monsoon region of China between 1998 and 2011 based on the correlation coefficients, regression, and geostatistical methods. We found a strong correlation between TRMM 3B43 data and observational data obtained from meteorological stations, but the TRMM 3B43 precipitation data was consistently lower than that obtained from the weather stations. The TRMM 3B43 data was significantly different from the data obtained by weather stations located in the northwest and northeast regions of the Hengduan Mountains. The spatial distribution of precipitation obtained from TRMM 3B43 was also different from meteorological data, but the deviation was predominantly distributed along the northern longitude and southern latitude. In addition, the TRMM data more accurately reflected the regional precipitation patterns. Our results indicate that the TRMM 3B43 data should be used for hydrological applications and water resource management at meteorological stations that have a sparse and uneven distribution of observation stations in the southwest monsoon region.
In this paper, we have made a report on the test observations with a Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST), which consists of 60 cm Nine-Channel Solar Telescope (NCST), 35 cm Solar Magnetic Field Telescope (SMFT), 8 cm Full Disc Telescope (FDT), 10 cm Full Disc Magnetic Field Telescope (FDMFT) and 14 cm H telescope. These observations demonstrate that the MCST has the following advantages: (a) It can work at more than nine visible spectral lines simultaneously. In this way, different solar layers of the photosphere and chromosphere can be observed at the same time; (b) every channel of the NCST is entirely equivalent to a videomagnetograph, by means of which the vector magnetic fields and line-of-sight velocity fields can be measured; (c) real-time monochromatic images of the photosphere and chromosphere can be obtained with the FDT, FDMFT, and H Telescope; (d) high-temporal-resolution full-disk magnetic fields can be measured with the FDMFT; (e) spectral profiles over a large field of view can be scanned with the NCST. 相似文献
