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11.
K. Abdrakhmatov H.-B. Havenith D. Delvaux D. Jongmans P. Trefois 《Journal of Seismology》2003,7(2):203-220
New probabilistic seismic hazard and Arias Intensity maps have beendeveloped for the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic and bordering regions.Data were mainly taken from the seismic catalogue of Kyrgyzstan and partlyfrom the world seismic catalogue. On the base of seismicity and activetectonics, seismic zones were outlined over the area. For these,Gutenberg-Richter laws were defined using mainly instrumental data, butregarding also historical events. Attenuation of acceleration inside the targetarea could not be determined experimentally since existing strong motiondata are insufficient. Therefore, empirical laws defined for other territories,principally Europe and China, were applied to the present hazardcomputations. Final maps were calculated with the SEISRISKIII programaccording to EUROCODE8 criteria, i.e. for a period of 50 years with90% probability of non-exceedance. For long-term prediction, 100 yearsmaps with 90% probability of non-exceedance have been developed. Theprocedure used for seismic hazard prediction in terms of PGA (PeakGround Acceleration) was also applied to Arias intensities in order to beable to define regional seismogenic landslide hazard maps. 相似文献
12.
A 2D elasto-dynamic modelling of the pure topographic seismic response is performed for six models with a total length of around 23.0 km. These models are reconstructed from the real topographic settings of the landslide-prone slopes situated in the Mailuu-Suu River Valley, Southern Kyrgyzstan. The main studied parameter is the Arias Intensity (Ia, m/sec), which is applied in the GIS-based Newmark method to regionally map the seismically-induced landslide susceptibility. This method maps the Ia values via empirical attenuation laws and our studies investigate a potential to include topographic input into them. Numerical studies analyse several signals with varying shape and changing central frequency values. All tests demonstrate that the spectral amplification patterns directly affect the amplification of the Ia values. These results let to link the 2D distribution of the topographically amplified Ia values with the parameter called as smoothed curvature. The amplification values for the low-frequency signals are better correlated with the curvature smoothed over larger spatial extent, while those values for the high-frequency signals are more linked to the curvature with smaller smoothing extent. The best predictions are provided by the curvature smoothed over the extent calculated according to Geli’s law. The sample equations predicting the Ia amplification based on the smoothed curvature are presented for the sinusoid-shape input signals. These laws cannot be directly implemented in the regional Newmark method, as 3D amplification of the Ia values addresses more problem complexities which are not studied here. Nevertheless, our 2D results prepare the theoretical framework which can potentially be applied to the 3D domain and, therefore, represent a robust basis for these future research targets. 相似文献