Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  

Nathan Mantua  Ingrid Tohver  Alan Hamlet 《Climatic change》2010,102(1-2):187-223

This study evaluates the sensitivity of Washington State’s freshwater habitat of Pacific Salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) to climate change. Our analysis focuses on summertime stream temperatures, seasonal low flows, and changes in peak and base flows because these physical factors are likely to be key pressure points for many of Washington’s salmon populations. Weekly summertime water temperatures and extreme daily high and low streamflows are evaluated under multimodel composites for A1B and B1 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Simulations predict rising water temperatures will thermally stress salmon throughout Washington’s watersheds, becoming increasingly severe later in the twenty-first century. Streamflow simulations predict that basins strongly influenced by transient runoff (a mix of direct runoff from cool-season rainfall and springtime snowmelt) are most sensitive to climate change. By the 2080s, hydrologic simulations predict a complete loss of Washington’s snowmelt dominant basins, and only about ten transient basins remaining in the north Cascades. Historically transient runoff watersheds will shift towards rainfall dominant behavior, undergoing more severe summer low flow periods and more frequent days with intense winter flooding. While cool-season stream temperature changes and impacts on salmon are not assessed in this study, it is possible that climate-induced warming in winter and spring will benefit parts of the freshwater life-cycle of some salmon populations enough to increase their reproductive success (or overall fitness). However, the combined effects of warming summertime stream temperatures and altered streamflows will likely reduce the reproductive success for many Washington salmon populations, with impacts varying for different life history-types and watershed-types. Diminishing streamflows and higher stream temperatures in summer will be stressful for stream-type salmon populations that have freshwater rearing periods in summer. Increased winter flooding in transient runoff watersheds will likely reduce the egg-to-fry survival rates for ocean-type and stream-type salmon.  相似文献   

Potential impact of climate change on ecosystems of the Barents Sea Region     

Hedwig Roderfeld  Eleanor Blyth  Rutger Dankers  Geir Huse  Dag Slagstad  Ingrid Ellingsen  Annett Wolf  Manfred A. Lange 《Climatic change》2008,87(1-2):283-303

The EU project BALANCE (Global Change Vulnerabilities in the Barents region: Linking Arctic Natural Resources, Climate Change and Economies) aims to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Barents Sea Region. As a prerequisite the potential impact of climate change on selected ecosystems of the study area has to be quantified, which is the subject of the present paper. A set of ecosystem models was run to generate baseline and future scenarios for 1990, 2020, 2050 and 2080. The models are based on data from the Regional Climate Model (REMO), driven by a GCM which in turn is forced by the IPCC-B2 scenario. The climate change is documented by means of the Köppen climate classification. Since the multitude of models requires the effect of climate change on individual terrestrial and marine systems to be integrated, the paper concentrates on a standardised visualisation of potential impacts by use of a Geographical Information System for the timeslices 2050 and 2080. The resulting maps show that both terrestrial and marine ecosystems of the Barents region will undergo significant changes until both 2050 and 2080.  相似文献   

Capelin migrations and climate change – a modelling analysis     

Geir Huse  Ingrid Ellingsen 《Climatic change》2008,87(1-2):177-197

The capelin is a small pelagic fish that performs long distance migrations. It is a key species in the Barents Sea ecosystem and its distribution is highly climate dependent. Here we use an individual based model to investigate consequences of global warming on capelin distribution and population dynamics. The model relies on input on physics and plankton from a biophysical ocean model, and the entire life cycle of capelin including spawning of eggs, larval drift and adult movement is simulated. Spawning day and adult movement strategies are adapted by a genetic algorithm. Spawning has to take place in designated near-shore spawning areas. The output generated by the model is capelin migration/distribution and population dynamics. We present simulations with present day climate and a future climate scenario. For the present climate the model evolves a spatial distribution resembling typical spatial dynamics of capelin with the coasts of Northern Norway and Murman as the main spawning areas. For the climate change simulation, the capelin is predicted to shift spawning eastwards and also utilize new spawning areas along Novaya Zemlya. There is also a shift in the adult distribution towards the north eastern part of the Barents Sea and earlier spawning associated with the warming.  相似文献   

Effects of chronic exposure to dispersed oil on selected reproductive processes in adult blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) and the consequences for the early life stages of their larvae     

Baussant T  Ortiz-Zarragoitia M  Cajaraville MP  Bechmann RK  Taban IC  Sanni S 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(7):1437-1445

Mussels (Mytilus edulis) were continuously exposed to dispersed crude oil (0.015-0.25 mg/l) for 7 months covering the whole gamete development cycle. After 1 month exposure to 0.25 mg oil/l, the level of alkali-labile phosphates (ALP) and the volume density of atretic oocytes in female gonads were higher than those in the gonads of control females, indicating that oil affected the level of vitellogenin-like proteins and gamete development. Spawning of mussels was induced after 7 months oil exposure. Parental oil exposure did not affect subsequent fertilization success in clean seawater but this was reduced in 0.25 mg oil/l. Parental exposure to 0.25 mg oil/l caused both slow development and a higher percentage of abnormalities in D-shell larvae 2 days post-fertilization; reduced growth 7 days post-fertilization. These effects were greatly enhanced when larval stages were maintained at 0.25 mg oil/l. Similar studies are warranted for risk assessment prognosis.  相似文献   

Recommendations on methods for the detection and control of biological pollution in marine coastal waters     

Olenin S  Elliott M  Bysveen I  Culverhouse PF  Daunys D  Dubelaar GB  Gollasch S  Goulletquer P  Jelmert A  Kantor Y  Mézeth KB  Minchin D  Occhipinti-Ambrogi A  Olenina I  Vandekerkhove J 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(12):2598-2604

Adverse effects of invasive alien species (IAS), or biological pollution, is an increasing problem in marine coastal waters, which remains high on the environmental management agenda. All maritime countries need to assess the size of this problem and consider effective mechanisms to prevent introductions, and if necessary and where possible to monitor, contain, control or eradicate the introduced impacting organisms. Despite this, and in contrast to more enclosed water bodies, the openness of marine systems indicates that once species are in an area then eradication is usually impossible. Most institutions in countries are aware of the problem and have sufficient governance in place for management. However, there is still a general lack of commitment and concerted action plans are needed to address this problem. This paper provides recommendations resulting from an international workshop based upon a large amount of experience relating to the assessment and control of biopollution.  相似文献   

228Ra, 226Ra, 224Ra and 223Ra in potential sources and sinks of land-derived material in the German Bight of the North Sea: implications for the use of radium as a tracer     

Caroline Schmidt  Claudia Hanfland  Pierre Regnier  Philippe Van Cappellen  Michael Schl��ter  Ulrich Knauthe  Ingrid Stimac  Walter Geibert 《Geo-Marine Letters》2011,31(4):259-269

Activities of the naturally occurring radium nuclides ²²⁸Ra, ²²⁶Ra, ²²⁴Ra and ²²³Ra were determined in waters of the open German Bight and adjacent nearshore areas in the North Sea, in order to explore the potential use of radium isotopes as natural tracers of land–ocean interaction in an environment characterised by extensive tidal flats, as well as riverine and groundwater influx. Data collected at various tidal phases from the Weser Estuary (²²⁸Ra: 46.3 ± 4.6; ²²⁶Ra: 17.1 ± 1.1; ²²⁴Ra: 26.1 ± 8.2 to 36.5 ± 6.1; ²²³Ra: 1.8 ± 0.1 to 4.0 ± 0.4), tidal flats near Sahlenburg (²²⁸Ra: 39.3 ± 3.8 to 46.0 ± 4.5; ²²⁶Ra: 15.5 ± 1.5 to 16.5 ± 1.7; ²²⁴Ra: 34.3 ± 2.2 to 85.3 ± 6.3; ²²³Ra: 3.6 ± 0.5 to 8.0 ± 1.2), freshwater seeps on tidal flats near Sahlenburg (²²⁸Ra: 42.1 ± 4.1; ²²⁶Ra: 21.3 ± 2.2; ²²⁴Ra: 5.1 ± 0.9; ²²³Ra: 2.6 ± 1.3) and also in permanently inundated parts of the North Sea (²²⁸Ra: 23.0 ± 2.3 to 28.2 ± 2.8; ²²⁶Ra: 8.2 ± 0.8 to 11.8 ± 1.2; ²²⁴Ra: 3.1 ± 1.0 to 10.1 ± 0.9; ²²³Ra: 0.1 ± 0.02 to 0.9 ± 0.05; units: disintegrations per minute per 100 kg water sample) reveal that, except for the fresh groundwater, the potential end-members of nearshore water mass mixing have quite similar radium signatures, excluding a simple discrimination between the sources. However, the decreasing activities of the short-lived ²²⁴Ra and ²²³Ra isotopes recorded towards the island of Helgoland in the central German Bight show a potential to constrain fluxes of land-derived material to the open North Sea. The largest source for all radium isotopes is generally found on the vast tidal flats and in the Weser Estuary. Future work could meaningfully combine this so-called radium quartet approach with investigations of radon activity. Indeed, preliminary data from a tidal flat site with fresh groundwater seepage reveal a ²²²Rn signal that is clearly lower in seawater.  相似文献   

Hydrochemical Groundwater Evolution in the Bunter Sandstone Sequence of the Odenwald Mountain Range,Germany: A Laboratory and Field Study     

Florian Ludwig  Ingrid Stober  Kurt Bucher 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2011,17(2):165-193

Field and laboratory investigations were performed to identify the principal mechanisms of the hydrochemical groundwater evolution among low mineralised groundwater in the Triassic Bunter sandstone aquifer of the Odenwald low mountain range, central Germany. Hydrochemical composition comprises low pH, SO₄-rich shallow groundwaters issued by springs (Ca-Mg-SO₄-type) grading to SO₄-poor deep groundwaters with near-neutral pH (Ca-HCO₃-type). Batch experiments of the original rock were run to determine primary mineral alteration reactions and the origin of dissolved ions. Principal experimental reactions comprise the decomposition of anorthite, K-feldspar, biotite and jarosite as mineral components of the original sandstone rock and the formation of clay minerals of the smectite group (Ca-montmorillonite, beidellite), and iron hydroxides as secondary minerals. Mobilisation of fluid inclusion in quartz grains contributes to Na and Cl concentrations in the leachates. The evolution of deep groundwater circulation proceeds by mineral alteration reactions calculated by the inverse modelling of both primary and secondary minerals to produce low-T mineral phases. The dissolution of K-feldspar converts Ca-montmorillonite to illite (illitisation). The formation of Na-beidellite correlates with decreasing concentration of Na in solution. Mineral reactions further proceed to the formation of kaolinite as stable mineral phase. As indicated by modelled adsorption curves, the decrease of SO₄ concentrations during groundwater evolution relates to the adsorption of SO₄ on iron hydroxides. The leaching of calcite indicated for individual groundwaters relates to the distribution of loess in the appropriate catchment areas.  相似文献   

Modelling discharge from a coastal watershed in southeast Sweden using an integrated framework     

Osvaldo Salazar  Abraham Joel  Ingrid Wesström  Harry Linnér  R. Wayne Skaggs 《水文研究》2010,24(26):3837-3851

The field hydrology model DRAINMOD integrated with Arc Hydro in geographical information system (GIS) framework (Arc Hydro–DRAINMOD) was used to simulate the hydrological response of a coastal watershed in southeast Sweden. Arc Hydro–DRAINMOD uses a distributed approach to route water from each field edge to the watershed outlet. In the framework the Arc Hydro data model was used to describe the stream network in the watershed and to connect the individual simulated DRAINMOD‐field outflow time series from each plot using Arc Hydro schema‐links features, which were summed at Arc Hydro schema‐nodes features along the stream network to generate the stream network flow. Hydrology data collected during six periods between 2003 and 2008 were used to test Arc Hydro–DRAINMOD and its performance was evaluated by considering uncertainties in model inputs using generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). The GLUE estimates obtained (uncertainty bands 5% and 95%) agreed satisfactorily with measured monthly discharges. The percentage of time in which the observed discharges were bracketed by the uncertainty bands was 88% in calibration periods and 75% in validation periods. Although monthly time step simulations showed good agreement with observed discharges during the two main discharge events in spring, the contradictory daily time step results indicate that the watershed response simulations on a daily basis need to be improved. The uncertainty analysis showed that in periods of higher discharge, such as spring periods, the uncertainty in prediction was higher. It is important to note that these uncertainty estimations using the GLUE procedure include the uncertainties in measured discharge values, model inputs, boundary conditions and model structures. It was estimated that stream baseflow represented 42% of the total watershed discharge, but further research is needed to confirm this. These results show that the new Arc Hydro–DRAINMOD framework is applicable for predicting discharge from artificially drained watersheds in southeast Sweden. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Northwest Africa 482: A crystalline impact‐melt breccia from the lunar highlands     

Ingrid J. Daubar  David A. Kring  Timothy D. Swindle  A. J. Timothy Jull 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2002,37(12):1797-1813

Abstract— Northwest Africa 482 (NWA 482) is a crystalline impact‐melt breccia from the Moon with highlands affinities. The recrystallized matrix and the clast population are both highly anorthositic. Clasts are all related to the ferroan anorthosite suite, and include isolated plagioclase crystals and lithic anorthosites, troctolites, and spinel troctolites. Potassium‐, rare‐earth‐element‐, and phosphorus‐bearing (KREEP) and mare lithologies are both absent, constraining the source area of this meteorite to a highland terrain with little to no KREEP component, most likely on the far side of the Moon. Glass is present in shock veins cutting through the sample and in several large melt pockets, indicating a second impact event. There are two separate events recorded in the ⁴⁰Ar‐³⁹Ar system: one at ～3750 Ma, which completely reset the K‐Ar system, and one at ?2400 Ma, which caused only partial degassing. These events could represent, respectively, crystallization of the impact‐melt breccia and later formation of the glass, or the formation of the glass and a later thermal event. The terrestrial age of the meteorite is 8.6 ± 1.3 ka. This age corresponds well with the modest amount of weathering in the rock, in the form of secondary phyllosilicates and carbonates. Based on terrestrial age and location, lithology, and chemistry, NWA 482 is unique among known lunar meteorites.  相似文献   

Restriction of sponges to an atoll lagoon as a result of reduced environmental quality     

Ingrid S.S. Knapp  Gareth J. Williams  José Luis Carballo  José Antonio Cruz-Barraza  Jonathan P.A. Gardner  James J. Bell 《Marine pollution bulletin》2013,66(1-2):209-220

The lagoon at Palmyra Atoll in the central Pacific was subject to major military modifications during WWII and now the dominant fauna on the lagoon’s hard substrate are sponges, not corals. In this study, we quantified the physical and biological factors explaining the variation in sponge distribution patterns across 11 sites to determine the potential for the sponges in the lagoon at Palmyra to invade the surrounding reef systems. Significant differences in sponge assemblages were found among all but three sites. For all the models we examined the strongest environmental relationships were found for variables related to sedimentation/turbidity and food/habitat availability. Our findings suggest that the sponges in Palmyra’s lagoon are likely to be restricted to this habitat type where they are associated with conditions resulting from the earlier heavy disturbance and are unlikely to spread to the outer reef environments unless there is a dramatic decline in environmental quality.  相似文献