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32.
Jean-Christophe Pouget David Proaño Andrea Vera Marcos Villacís Thomas Condom Marisa Escobar 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(3):431-446
La forte croissance socio-économique de Quito a conduit à d’importants projets de transferts interbassins, intensifiant la mobilisation des ressources d’altitude situées dans des zones écologiques sensibles et connaissant une fonte accélérée des glaciers. Afin d’étudier divers scénarios d’évolutions, nous proposons une modélisation du continuum climat/glacier/hydrologie/gestion des ressources en eau. Utilisant l’outil Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP), nous avons développé : (1) une modélisation hydro-climatologique semi-distribuée avec des données mensuelles homogénéisées par vectorisation régionale ; (2) une modélisation de la production en eau des glaciers et de leur évolution interannuelle ; (3) une modélisation en unités hydrologiques distinguant différentes couvertures de sols ; et (4) une modélisation de la gestion distinguant droits, allocation et usages de l’eau. Nous présentons les résultats du calage hydrologique mensuel (1963–2006), en étudiant particulièrement l’équifinalité de diverses paramétrisations. Nous montrons la souplesse, la robustesse et les limites de la modélisation proposée, contribuant à cerner différentes incertitudes dans l’évaluation de scénarios prospectifs. 相似文献
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34.
Wind in Ireland: long memory or seasonal effect? 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Jean-Christophe Bouette Jean-François Chassagneux David Sibai Rémi Terron Arthur Charpentier 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2006,20(3):141-151
Since Haslett and Raftery’s paper Space-Time Modelling with Long-Memory Dependence: Assessing Ireland’s Wind Power Resource (1989), modelling meteorological time series with long memory processes, in particular the ARFIMA model has become very common. Haslett and Raftery fitted an ARFIMA model on Irish daily wind speeds. In this paper, we try to reproduce Haslett and Raftery’s results (focusing on the dynamic
of the wind process, and not on cross-correlation and space dependencies), and show that an ARFIMA model does not properly capture the behaviour of the series (in Modelling daily windspeed in Ireland section). Indeed, the
series show a periodic behaviour, that is not taken into account by the ARFIMA model. Removing this periodic behaviour yields no results either, we therefore try to fit a GARMA model that takes into account both seasonality and long memory (in Seasonality and long memory using GARMA models section). If a GARMA process can be fitted to the data to model Irish daily data, we will show that these models could also be used to model Dutch hourly data.
相似文献
Arthur CharpentierEmail: |
35.
Emmanouil Flaounas Philippe Drobinski Mathieu Vrac Sophie Bastin Cindy Lebeaupin-Brossier Marc Stéfanon Marco Borga Jean-Christophe Calvet 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(11-12):2687-2705
This study evaluates how statistical and dynamical downscaling models as well as combined approach perform in retrieving the space–time variability of near-surface temperature and rainfall, as well as their extremes, over the whole Mediterranean region. The dynamical downscaling model used in this study is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with varying land-surface models and resolutions (20 and 50 km) and the statistical tool is the Cumulative Distribution Function-transform (CDF-t). To achieve a spatially resolved downscaling over the Mediterranean basin, the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) gridded dataset is used for calibration and evaluation of the downscaling models. In the frame of HyMeX and MED-CORDEX international programs, the downscaling is performed on ERA-I reanalysis over the 1989–2008 period. The results show that despite local calibration, CDF-t produces more accurate spatial variability of near-surface temperature and rainfall with respect to ECA&D than WRF which solves the three-dimensional equation of conservation. This first suggests that at 20–50 km resolutions, these three-dimensional processes only weakly contribute to the local value of temperature and precipitation with respect to local one-dimensional processes. Calibration of CDF-t at each individual grid point is thus sufficient to reproduce accurately the spatial pattern. A second explanation is the use of gridded data such as ECA&D which smoothes in part the horizontal variability after data interpolation and damps the added value of dynamical downscaling. This explains partly the absence of added-value of the 2-stage downscaling approach which combines statistical and dynamical downscaling models. The temporal variability of statistically downscaled temperature and rainfall is finally strongly driven by the temporal variability of its forcing (here ERA-Interim or WRF simulations). CDF-t is thus efficient as a bias correction tool but does not show any added-value regarding the time variability of the downscaled field. Finally, the quality of the reference observation dataset is a key issue. Comparison of CDF-t calibrated with ECA&D dataset and WRF simulations to local measurements from weather stations not assimilated in ECA&D, shows that the temporal variability of the downscaled data with respect to the local observations is closer to the local measurements than to ECA&D data. This highlights the strong added-value of dynamical downscaling which improves the temporal variability of the atmospheric dynamics with regard to the driving model. This article highlights the benefits and inconveniences emerging from the use of both downscaling techniques for climate research. Our goal is to contribute to the discussion on the use of downscaling tools to assess the impact of climate change on regional scales. 相似文献
36.
Youngseob Kim Karine Sartelet Jean-Christophe Raut Patrick Chazette 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2013,149(1):105-132
Meteorological modelling in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) over Greater Paris is performed using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) numerical model. The simulated meteorological fields are evaluated by comparison with mean diurnal observational data or mean vertical profiles of temperature, wind speed, humidity and boundary-layer height from 6 to 27 May 2005. Different PBL schemes, which parametrize the atmospheric turbulence in the PBL using different turbulence closure schemes, may be used in the WRF model. The sensitivity of the results to four PBL schemes (two non-local closure schemes and two local closure schemes) is estimated. Uncertainties in the PBL schemes are compared to the influence of the urban canopy model (UCM) and the updated Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) land-use data. Using the UCM and the CORINE land-use data produces more realistic modelled meteorological fields. The wind speed, which is overestimated in the simulations without the UCM, is improved below 1,000 m height. Furthermore, the modelled PBL heights during nighttime are strongly modified, with an increase that may be as high as 200 %. At night, the impact of changing the PBL scheme is lower than the impact of using the UCM and the CORINE land-use data. 相似文献
37.
Sergio-Raúl Rodríguez Claus Siebe Jean-Christophe Komorowski Michael Abrams 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2002,113(1-2)
The study area is located in the east part of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, in the Las Cumbres Volcanic Complex (LCVC) which lies between two large stratovolcanoes: Pico de Orizaba (5700 m a.s.l.) to the south, and Cofre de Perote (4200 m a.s.l.) to the NNE. The most conspicuous structure of the LCVC is a 4-km-diameter circular crater with a dacitic dome in the center, which constitutes the remains of a destroyed stratovolcano.The Quetzalapa Pumice (QP) was produced by a plinian eruption that was dated by the 14C method at 20 000 yr. BP. The eruptive sequence consists predominantly of pumice fall deposits and scarce intra-plinian pyroclastic flow deposits, which crop out on the west flank of the LCVC. The absence of post-plinian ignimbrite deposits is striking.The deposits are well sorted, clast-supported with reverse grading at the base, with a medium to high accessory lithics content. The maximum average thickness of the deposit in the proximal areas is about 15 m and has been divided into three members: the Basal Member (BM), 2 m thick with four submembers (BMf1, BMf2, BMf3, and BMafl), the Intermediate Member (IM), 10 m thick with two submembers (IMpf and IMaf), and the Upper Member (UM), 3 m thick with four submembers (UMpl, UMsdf, UMwaf, and UMpls).The predominant component of the fall deposits is a white, highly vesiculated pumice with 71% SiO2 content. Plagioclase is the most abundant mineral followed by 1–3-mm-long biotite phenocrysts. The accessory lithics are lavas mostly of andesitic composition. Their abundance increases toward the uppermost levels of the sequence.We calculate a minimum volume of 8.4 km3 (2.22 km3 dense rock equivalent), for the entire QP deposit. Isopach and isopleth maps show that the IM deposit has an elongated distribution with a NNE–SSW direction, whereas the UM deposit has a circular distribution.We estimate a maximum eruptive column height for the IM of 20 km. Field studies and isopach and isopleth maps indicate that the eruptive column was affected by a strong wind.Previous studies located the QP source in the Las Cumbres crater. However, based on the isopach and isopleth distribution, and the lack of pumice fall deposits inside the Las Cumbres crater, we consider that the QP emission center is located on the west flank of the LCVC, and was buried by its own pumice fall deposits. It coincides with an explosion crater called La Capilla formed during the closing phase of the QP eruption.A ‘pumice fountain’ model is proposed to explain the observed sequence of deposits. According to this model, the material was emitted through a ‘hose-type’ conduit during a monogenetic eruption of rhyolitic composition. This kind of volcanic activity is not extensively reported in the literature. 相似文献
38.
Anne Salaün Benoît Villemant Martine Gérard Jean-Christophe Komorowski Agnès Michel 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2011,111(3):59-83
The mineralogy and the trace element compositions of hydrothermally-altered volcanic materials collected from ash fall deposits and in four debris-avalanche deposits (DADs) at La Soufrière volcano in Guadeloupe have been determined. Phreatic explosions of the 1976 eruption and flank collapse events have sampled various parts of the active and ancient hydrothermal systems of the volcano. Hydrothermal mineral assemblages (smectite + silica polymorphs ± pyrite/jarosite ± gypsum) are typical of rock alteration by low-temperature acid-sulphate fluids. High-temperature mineral assemblages are rare, indicating that phreatic explosions and flank collapse events have sampled mainly the upper parts of the volcanic edifice.Andesitic eruptive products affected by shallow hydrothermal alteration are complex assemblages of volcanic materials (glass, phenocrysts and xenocrysts with complex magmatic histories) of different ages and compositions. The use of incompatible element ratios and REE compositions normalised to an unaltered reference material overcomes the interpretation difficulties related to mass balance effects of alteration processes and the petrologic heterogeneity of the initial material.REE and other incompatible elements (Th, U, Hf, Zr) are mainly concentrated in the glassy matrix of unaltered andesitic rocks. Secondary S-bearing mineral phases (e.g., gypsum, jarosite) that have precipitated from acid-sulphate fluids do not contain substantial incompatible elements (REE, U, Th, Hf, Zr). Compositional variations of incompatible elements in hydrothermally-altered andesitic materials reflect mainly volcanic glass–smectite transformation, which is characterised by (i) strong depletion of alkalis and alkaline earths (Ba, Sr) and first transition series elements (Zn, Cu, Cr, Co, Ni), (ii) immobility of highly incompatible elements (Th, Zr, Hf, LREE) and (iii) strong depletion of MREE and HREE. The sigmoid shape of normalised REE pattern is characteristic of glass–smectite transformation by low-temperature acid-sulphate fluids. This transformation also produces significant variations in U/Th values, which offer the opportunity to date the cessation of hydrothermal alteration and to reconstruct the evolution in space and time of hydrothermal activity in a volcanic edifice. 相似文献
39.
Stéphane Audry Henriette Ateba Bessa Jean-Pierre Bedimo Bedimo Jean-Loup Boeglin Laurie Boithias Jean-Jacques Braun Bernard Dupré Mikael Faucheux Christelle Lagane Jean-Christophe Maréchal Jules Remy Ndam-Ngoupayou Bernadette Nka Nnomo Justin Nlozoa Jean-Claude Ntonga Olivier Ribolzi Jean Riotte Emma Rochelle-Newall Laurent Ruiz 《水文研究》2021,35(5):e14138
Simultaneously acquiring time series of climate, hydrology and hydrochemical data over decades on river systems is pivotal to understand the complex interactions involving rock, soil water, air and biota in the Critical Zone, to build integrated modelling and to propose predictive scenarios. Among the Critical Zone Observatories (CZOs) implemented in the past 25 years, only a few are located in the humid Tropics despite the importance of these regions in terms of population density, fast-changing land use, biodiversity hotspots, biomass stock on continents, size of river systems, etc. Since 1994, weathering and erosion processes and fluxes have been investigated at both local (experimental watershed) and regional scales in the Nyong River Basin (Cameroon) which belongs to the Critical Zone Observatories network named Multiscale TROPIcal CatchmentS (M-TROPICS). The data shared by M-TROPICS in Cameroon are: (1) rainfall; (2) air temperature, air relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and global radiation; (3) stream and river water level; (4) pH, electrical conductivity, water temperature and suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentration; (5) major ion, alkalinity and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations. The dataset already contributed to describe the water partitioning in these tropical humid watersheds, to better understand the factors controlling chemical weathering and physical erosion in tropical ecosystems, particularly the role of organic matter. The dataset also contributed to calculate elemental weathering fluxes and saprolite production rate and to propose denudation rates on tropical cratonic landscapes. Hydrological modelling allowed quantification of the geographical water sources contributing to streamflow. DOC data were used to determine greenhouse-gas emissions and carbon budgets from African inland waters. However, long-term solute concentrations at the outlet of a small tributary of the Nyong River exhibit non-stationary behaviour over the last 26 years. The processes governing those fluctuations are not yet fully understood and might be related to changes in the hydrological regime, land-cover and land-use. The latter highlights the need for longer time-series and continued support for CZOs particularly in the humid tropics. 相似文献