Summation of the Born series for the normal modes of the Earth     

Jeroen Tromp  F. A. Dahlen 《Geophysical Journal International》1990,100(3):527-533

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Frame-based guide to situated decision-making on climate change     

Joop de Boer  J. Arjan Wardekker  Jeroen P. van der Sluijs 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(3):502-510

The present paper describes a frame-based approach to situated-decision-making on climate change. Building on the multidisciplinary literature on the relationship between frames and decision-making, it argues that decision-makers may gain from making frames more explicit and using them for generating different visions about the central issues. Frames act as organizing principles that shape in a “hidden” and taken-for-granted way how people conceptualize an issue. Science-related issues, such as climate change, are often linked to only a few frames, which consistently appear across different policy areas. Indeed, it appears that there are some very contrasting ways in which climate change may be framed. These frames can be characterized in terms of a simple framework that highlights specific interpretations of climate issues. A second framework clarifies the built-in frames of decision tools. Using Thompson's two basic dimensions of decision, it identifies the main uncertainties that should be considered in developing a decision strategy. The paper characterizes four types of decision strategy, focusing on (1) computation, (2) compromise, (3) judgment, or (4) inspiration, and links each strategy to the appropriate methods and tools, as well as the appropriate social structures. Our experiences show that the frame-based guide can work as an eye-opener for decision-makers, particularly where it demonstrates how to add more perspectives to the decision.  相似文献   

A giant catastrophic mud‐and‐debris flow in the Miocene Makran     

Jean‐Pierre Burg  Daniel Bernoulli  Jeroen Smit  Ashgar Dolati  Abbas Bahroudi 《地学学报》2008,20(3):188-193

We challenge the former interpretation of the ‘sedimentary mélange’ of the Makran accretionary complex as a tectonic mélange diapirically emplaced from below and provide evidence for its sedimentary gravitational emplacement from the north during Tortonian–Messinian times (between 11.8 and 5.8 Ma). It is an olistostrome that includes blocks of ophiolites and oceanic sediments derived from the ‘coloured mélange’ to the north, and reworked chunks of the turbidites on which it rests with an erosional truncation. The chaotic scattering of blocks of any size and lithology and the weak, soft‐sediment deformation of the matrix argue against a tectonic emplacement of the chaotic formation. Its size and internal structure, together with the size of the individual blocks, make the olistostrome a fossil equivalent of the large, gravitationally emplaced debris flows observed along present‐day continental margins and unstable volcanic edifices.  相似文献   

Gypsies in the palace: experimentalist's view on the use of 3‐D physics‐based simulation of hillslope hydrological response     

April L. James  Jeffrey J. McDonnell  Ilja Tromp‐van Meerveld  Norman E. Peters 《水文研究》2010,24(26):3878-3893

As a fundamental unit of the landscape, hillslopes are studied for their retention and release of water and nutrients across a wide range of ecosystems. The understanding of these near‐surface processes is relevant to issues of runoff generation, groundwater–surface water interactions, catchment export of nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, contaminants (e.g. mercury) and ultimately surface water health. We develop a 3‐D physics‐based representation of the Panola Mountain Research Watershed experimental hillslope using the TOUGH2 sub‐surface flow and transport simulator. A recent investigation of sub‐surface flow within this experimental hillslope has generated important knowledge of threshold rainfall‐runoff response and its relation to patterns of transient water table development. This work has identified components of the 3‐D sub‐surface, such as bedrock topography, that contribute to changing connectivity in saturated zones and the generation of sub‐surface stormflow. Here, we test the ability of a 3‐D hillslope model (both calibrated and uncalibrated) to simulate forested hillslope rainfall‐runoff response and internal transient sub‐surface stormflow dynamics. We also provide a transparent illustration of physics‐based model development, issues of parameterization, examples of model rejection and usefulness of data types (e.g. runoff, mean soil moisture and transient water table depth) to the model enterprise. Our simulations show the inability of an uncalibrated model based on laboratory and field characterization of soil properties and topography to successfully simulate the integrated hydrological response or the distributed water table within the soil profile. Although not an uncommon result, the failure of the field‐based characterized model to represent system behaviour is an important challenge that continues to vex scientists at many scales. We focus our attention particularly on examining the influence of bedrock permeability, soil anisotropy and drainable porosity on the development of patterns of transient groundwater and sub‐surface flow. Internal dynamics of transient water table development prove to be essential in determining appropriate model parameterization. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Ethics and public perception of climate change: Exploring the Christian voices in the US public debate   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

J. Arjan Wardekker  Arthur C. Petersen  Jeroen P. van der Sluijs 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(4):512-521

Climate change raises many questions with strong moral and ethical dimensions that are important to address in climate-policy formation and international negotiations. Particularly in the United States, the public discussion of these dimensions is strongly influenced by religious groups and leaders. Over the past few years, many religious groups have taken positions on climate change, highlighting its ethical dimensions. This paper aims to explore these ethical dimensions in the US public debate in relation to public support for climate policies. It analyzes in particular the Christian voices in the US public debate on climate change by typifying the various discourses. Three narratives emerge from this analysis: ‘conservational stewardship’ (conserving the ‘garden of God’ as it was created), ‘developmental stewardship’ (turning the wilderness into a garden as it should become) and ‘developmental preservation’ (God's creation is good and changing; progress and preservation should be combined). The different narratives address fundamental ethical questions, dealing with stewardship and social justice, and they provide proxies for public perception of climate change in the US. Policy strategies that pay careful attention to the effects of climate change and climate policy on the poor – in developing nations and the US itself – may find support among the US population. Religious framings of climate change resonate with the electorates of both progressive and conservative politicians and could serve as bridging devices for bipartisan climate-policy initiatives.  相似文献   

Dispersion in the Wake of a Rectangular Building: Validation of Two Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes Modelling Approaches     

Catherine Gorlé  Jeroen van Beeck  Patrick Rambaud 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2010,137(1):115-133

When modelling the turbulent dispersion of a passive tracer using Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulations, two different approaches can be used. The first consists of solving a transport equation for a scalar, where the governing parameters are the mean velocity field and the turbulent diffusion coefficient, given by the ratio of the turbulent viscosity and the turbulent Schmidt number Sc _t . The second approach uses a Lagrangian particle tracking algorithm, where the governing parameters are the mean velocity and the fluctuating velocity field, which is determined from the turbulence kinetic energy and the Lagrangian time T _L . A comparison between the two approaches and wind-tunnel data for the dispersion in the wake of a rectangular building immersed in a neutral atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is presented. Particular attention was paid to the influence of turbulence model parameters on the flow and concentration field. In addition, an approach to estimate Sc _t and T _L based on the calculated flow field is proposed. The results show that applying modified turbulence model constants to enable correct modelling of the ABL improves the prediction for the velocity and concentration fields when the modification is restricted to the region for which it was derived. The difference between simulated and measured concentrations is smaller than 25% or the uncertainty of the data on 76% of the points when solving the transport equation for a scalar with the proposed formulation for Sc _t , and on 69% of the points when using the Lagrangian particle tracking with the proposed formulation for T _L .  相似文献   

Safe climate policy is affordable—12 reasons   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Jeroen C. J. M. van den Bergh 《Climatic change》2010,101(3-4):339-385

There is a widespread sense that a sufficiently stringent climate mitigation policy, that is, a considerable reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid extreme climate change, will come with very high economic costs for society. This is supported by many cost–benefit analyses (CBA) and policy cost assessments of climate policy. All of these, nevertheless, are based on debatable assumptions. This paper will argue instead that safe climate policy is not excessively expensive and is indeed cheaper than suggested by most current studies. To this end, climate CBA and policy cost assessments are critically evaluated, and as a replacement twelve complementary perspectives on the cost of climate policy are offered.  相似文献   

Spatial variability and temporal stability of throughfall water under a dominant beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) tree in relationship to canopy cover     

Jeroen Staelens  An De Schrijver  Kris Verheyen  Niko E.C. Verhoest 《Journal of Hydrology》2006,330(3-4):651-662

Although the spatial heterogeneity of throughfall water (TF) under forest canopies has been related to vegetation structure in several forest types, few reports have been made of the driving factors of small-scale TF variability in deciduous stands. Therefore, the spatial variability of the amount of TF water under one dominant beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) tree was quantified in high temporal and spatial resolution over a 2-year period to examine the temporal stability of spatial TF variability and to relate spatial TF patterns to canopy cover determined photographically above each TF collector (n = 48). The spatial variability of TF was significantly higher during the leafed periods (coefficient of variation (CV) = 18%) than during the leafless periods (CV = 8%), and a strong negative relationship was observed between the CV of event TF and the TF fraction of rainfall in the open field. Geostatistical analysis showed that the cumulative TF water during the leafed periods was spatially correlated up to a distance of 3–4 m. There was a significant temporal stability of spatial TF patterns in the growing periods and in the dormant periods, but patterns differed largely between the two periods of the year. TF water during the growing periods significantly decreased with increasing canopy cover above the sampling locations (r = −0.54, p = 0.014, n = 20), but was more closely correlated with branch cover (r = −0.77, p < 0.001). However, the spatial pattern of TF during defoliated conditions was not related to the measured variation in branch cover.  相似文献   

GIA-induced secular variations in the Earth's long wavelength gravity field: Influence of 3-D viscosity variations     

Konstantin Latychev  Jerry X. Mitrovica  Jeroen Tromp  Robert Moucha 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2005,240(2):322-327

Predictions of present day secular variations in the Earth's long wavelength geopotential driven by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) have previously been analyzed to infer the radial profile of mantle viscosity and to constrain ongoing cryospheric mass balance. These predictions have been based on spherically symmetric Earth models. We explore the impact of lateral variations in mantle viscosity using a new finite-volume formulation for computing the response of 3-D Maxwell viscoelastic Earth models. The geometry of the viscosity field is constrained from seismic-to-mographic images of mantle structure, while the amplitude of the lateral viscosity variations is tuned by a free parameter in the modeling. We focus on the zonal J˙_? harmonics for degrees ? = 2,…,8 and demonstrate that large-scale lateral viscosity variations of two to three orders of magnitude have a modest, 5-10%, impact on predictions of J˙₂. In contrast, predictions of higher degree harmonics show a much greater sensitivity to lateral variation in viscosity structure. We conclude that future analyses of secular trends (for degree ? > 2) estimated from ongoing (GRACE, CHAMP) satellite missions must incorporate GIA predictions based on 3-D viscoelastic Earth models.  相似文献   

Vertically integrated moisture flux convergence as a predictor of thunderstorms     

Jeroen van Zomeren  Aarnout van Delden   《Atmospheric Research》2007,83(2-4):435-445

Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux Convergence (VIMFC) alone and in combination with the lifted stability index of the most unstable layer (SMUL) is evaluated as a thunderstorm predictor. By using six-hourly standard pressure weather analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) during 30 days in the summers of 1992 and 1994 containing several severe weather events along with quiescent events in northwestern Europe 17,206 events are obtained. The location and time of a lightning discharge are obtained from the Arrival Time Difference (ATD) sferics lightning location system from the UK Meteorological Office. Using the Heidke Skill Score (HEIDKE) to determine the best threshold we conclude that VIMFC alone, does not perform well as a dichotomous thunderstorm predictor compared to the stability index. However, the Thundery Case Probability (TCP) tested as function of VIMFC results in a high correlation with thunderstorms. By combining SMUL and VIMFC the surplus value as a thunderstorm predictor of VIMFC was established. TCP percentages up to 95% were found in an unstable environment with high positive values of VIMFC. In a marginally unstable environment with a high positive VIMFC the thunderstorm probability is higher than in a very unstable environment with no or negative VIMFC. These results are illustrated with a study of the case of the disastrous flash flood at Vaison-La-Romaine (southeastern France) on September 22, 1992. Although latent instability was present in a large area surrounding Vaison-La-Romaine, nearly all and especially the most severe thunderstorm activity occurred within the smaller area with positive VIMFC and latent instability.  相似文献