The bi-decadal rainfall cycle,Southern Annular Mode and tropical cyclones over the Limpopo River Basin,southern Africa     

Johan Malherbe  Willem A. Landman  Francois A. Engelbrecht 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(11-12):3121-3138

The association between bi-decadal rainfall variability over southern Africa and the rainfall contributed by tropical cyclonic systems from the Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) provides a potential means towards understanding decadal-scale variability over parts of the region. A multi-decadal period is considered, focusing on the anomalous tropospheric patterns that induced a particularly wet 8-year long sub-period over the Limpopo River Basin. The wet sub-period was also characterized by a larger contribution to rainfall by tropical cyclones and depressions. The findings suggest that a broadening of the Hadley circulation underpinned by an anomalous anticyclonic pattern to the east of southern Africa altered tropospheric steering flow, relative vorticity and moisture contents spatially during the sub-period of 8 years. These circulation modulations induced enhanced potential for tropical systems from the SWIO to cause precipitation over the Limpopo River Basin. The same patterns are also conducive to increasing rainfall over the larger subcontinent, therefore explaining the positive association in the bi-decadal rainfall cycle and rainfall contributed by tropical cyclonic systems from the SWIO. An overview of regional circulation anomlies during alternating near-decadal wet and dry epochs is given. The regional circulation anomalies are also explained in hemispheric context, specifically in relation to the Southern Annular Mode, towards understanding variation over other parts of the Southern Hemisphere at this time scale.  相似文献   

Strengthening bottom-up and top-down climate governance     

Jo Dirix  Wouter Peeters  Johan Eyckmans  Peter Tom Jones  Sigrid Sterckx 《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):363-383

Although the UN and EU focus their climate policies on the prevention of a 2 °C global mean temperature rise, it has been estimated that a rise of at least 4?°C is more likely. Given the political climate of inaction, there is a need to instigate a bottom-up approach so as to build domestic support for future climate treaties, empower citizens, and motivate leaders to take action. A review is provided of the predominant top-down cap-and-trade policies in place – the Kyoto Protocol and EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) – with a focus on the grandfathering of emissions entitlements and the possibility of offsetting emissions. These policies are evaluated according to two criteria of justice and it is concluded that they fail to satisfy them. Some suggestions as to how the EU ETS can be improved so as to enable robust climate action are also offered.

Policy relevance

The current supranational climate policy has not been successful and global leaders have postponed the adoption of a meaningful successor to the Kyoto Protocol. In view of this inaction, bottom-up approaches with regard to climate policy should be further developed. It is argued that two of the main top-down policies, grandfathering and offsetting, impede the avowed goals of EU climate policy and pose significant ethical dilemmas with regard to participatory and intergenerational justice. In order to provide a more robust EU climate policy, the EU should inter alia provide a long-term perspective for investors, reduce the volatility of the carbon price, and prepare for the possibility of carbon leakage.  相似文献   

The Dwarskersbos,South Africa local tsunami of August 27, 1969: field survey and simulation as a meteorological event   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Emile A. Okal  Johan N. J. Visser  Coenraad H. de Beer 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(1):251-268

We investigate the hitherto unexplained wave which inundated the village of Dwarskersbos, South Africa, in the early hours of August 27, 1969, in the absence of any seismic disturbance or major meteorological storm. A field survey, based on the interview of nine elderly witnesses still residing in the community, documented maximum run-up of 2.9 m, concentrated on an extremely short segment of coastline, less than 2 km in length. These characteristics are incompatible with generation by a seismic source (which, at any rate, should have been felt by the population). A landslide source, located at the only canyon featuring a steep enough ocean floor, is also ruled out since a numerical simulation fails to reproduce the concentration of the wave at Dwarskersbos. By contrast, the wave can be explained as a “meteo-tsunami” resulting from resonance between a meteorological squall propagating at 18 m/s in the azimuth \(\hbox {N101}^{\circ }\hbox {E}\) and a gravity wave propagating in the shallow waters off the eastern shore of St. Helena Bay. This is confirmed by numerical simulation under the formalism of Proudman (Dynamical oceanography. Methuen, London, 1953), which provides a satisfactory model of the distribution of run-up along the beach.  相似文献   

Flow velocity profiles in the Lower Scheldt estuary     

Johan Christian Winterwerp  Zheng Bing Wang  Theo van der Kaaij  Kristof Verelst  Arnout Bijlsma  Youri Meersschaut  Marc Sas 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(3-4):284-294

Recent acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP)-measurements in the Scheldt estuary near Antwerp, Belgium, revealed anomalous, i.e. anti-clockwise circulations in a left bend during the major part of the flood period; these circulations were established shortly after the turn of the tide. During ebb, anti-clockwise circulations persisted, as predicted by classical theory. These data were analysed with a 3D and a 1DV-model. The 3D simulations reveal that the anomalous circulations are found when salinity is included in the computations—without salinity “normal” circulations were found. From analytical and 1DV simulations, it is concluded that a longitudinal salinity gradient ${\partial S} \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\partial S} {\partial x}}} \right. \kern-0em} {\partial x}$ may induce a near-bed maximum in flow velocity reversing the direction of the secondary currents. The 1DV-model was then used to assess the contribution of various processes one by one. It was found that because of a reduction in vertical mixing, the vertical velocity profile is not at equilibrium during the first phase of accelerating tide, further enhancing the effects of ${\partial S} \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\partial S} {\partial x}}} \right. \kern-0em} {\partial x}$ . A small vertical salinity gradient ${\partial S} \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\partial S} {\partial z}}} \right. \kern-0em} {\partial z}$ appeared to have a very large effect as the crosscurrents of the secondary circulations induced by ${\partial S} \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\partial S} {\partial x}}} \right. \kern-0em} {\partial x}$ became an order of larger magnitude. However, at the site under consideration, the effects of transverse salinity gradients, generated by differential advection in the river bend, were dominant: adverse directions of the secondary circulations were found even when the vertical velocity profile became more regular with a more or less logarithmic shape, i.e. when the effects of ${\partial S} \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\partial S} {\partial x}}} \right. \kern-0em} {\partial x}$ and ${\partial S} \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\partial S} {\partial z}}} \right. \kern-0em} {\partial z}$ did not play a dominant role anymore. It is argued that data on the secondary velocity structure, which can be measured easily owing to today’s developments in ADCP equipment, may serve as an indicator for the accuracy at which the salinity field is computed with 3D numerical models. Moreover, the large effect of the salinity structure on the velocity field must have a large impact on the morphological development of estuaries, which should therefore be accounted for in morphological modelling studies.  相似文献   

Sorption of yttrium and rare earth elements by amorphous ferric hydroxide: Influence of solution complexation with carbonate     

Kelly A. Quinn  Johan Schijf 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2006,70(16):4151-4165

The influence of solution complexation on the sorption of yttrium and the rare earth elements (YREEs) by amorphous ferric hydroxide was investigated at 25 °C over a range of pH (4.0-7.1) and carbonate concentrations . Distribution coefficients, defined as , where [MS_i]_T is the total concentration of sorbed YREE, M_T is the total YREE concentration in solution, and [S_i] is the concentration of amorphous ferric hydroxide, initially increased in magnitude with increasing carbonate concentration, and then decreased. The initial increase of is due to sorption of YREE carbonate complexes , in addition to sorption of free YREE ions (M³⁺). The subsequent decrease of , which is more extensive for the heavy REEs, is due to the increasing intensity of YREE solution complexation by carbonate ions. The competition for YREEs between solution complexation and surface complexation was modeled via the equation: