Carbon emission trading and carbon taxes under uncertainties     

Tatiana Ermolieva  Yuri Ermoliev  Günther Fischer  Matthias Jonas  Marek Makowski  Fabian Wagner 《Climatic change》2010,103(1-2):277-289

The idea of market-based carbon emission trading and carbon taxes is gaining in popularity as a global climate change policy instrument. However, these mechanisms might not necessarily have a positive outcome unless their value reflects socioeconomic and environmental impacts and regulations. Moreover, the fact that they have various inherent exogenous and endogenous uncertainties raises serious concerns about their ability to reduce emissions in a cost-effective way. This paper aims to introduce a simple stochastic model that allows the robustness of economic mechanisms for emission reduction under multiple natural and human-related uncertainties to be analyzed. Unlike standard equilibrium state analysis, the model shows that the explicit introduction of uncertainties regarding emissions, abatement costs, and equilibrium states makes it almost impossible for existing market-based trading and carbon taxes to be environmentally safe and cost-effective. Here we propose a computerized multi-agent trading model. This can be viewed as a prototype to simulate an emission trading market that is regulated in a decentralized way. We argue that a market of this type is better equipped to deal with long-term emission reductions, their direct regulation, irreversibility, and “lock-in” equilibria.  相似文献   

Cultural barriers to climate change adaptation: A case study from Northern Burkina Faso   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jonas Østergaard Nielsen  Anette Reenberg 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(1):142-152

Human adaptation to climate change is a heterogeneous process influenced by more than economic and technological development. It is increasingly acknowledged in the adaptation to climate change literature that factors such as class, gender and culture play a large role when adaptation strategies are either chosen or rejected at the local scale. This paper explores adaptation strategies by focusing on livelihood diversification in the face of the most recent of recurrent droughts in the Sahel. It is shown that for Fulbe, one of the two main ethnic groups in the small village in Northern Burkina Faso studied, culture acts as a major barrier to embracing four of the most successful livelihood strategies: labour migration, working for development projects, gardening, and the engagement of women in economic activities.  相似文献   

Estimation of the Lagrangian Velocity Structure Function Constant C0 by Large-Eddy Simulation     

Umberto Rizza  Cristina Mangia  Jonas C. Carvalho  Domenico Anfossi 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,120(1):25-37

The inertial subrange Kolmogorov constant C ₀, which determines the effective turbulent diffusion in velocity space, plays an important role in the Lagrangian modelling of pollutants. A wide range of values of the constant are found in the literature, most of them determined at low Reynolds number and/or under different assumptions. Here we estimate the constant C ₀ by tracking an ensemble of Lagrangian particles in a planetary boundary layer simulated with a large-eddy simulation model and analysing the Lagrangian velocity structure function in the inertial subrange. The advantage of this technique is that it easily allows Reynolds numbers to be achieved typical of convective turbulent flows. Our estimates of C ₀ is C ₀=4.3±0.3 consistent with values found in the literature  相似文献   

Radio continuum surveys     

Justin L. Jonas  Eddie E. Baart 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1995,230(1-2):351-358

The Rhodes University radio astronomy group has been involved in radio continuum mapping of southern extended radio sources since 1976. We describe the various mapping projects undertaken with the HartRAO telescope, particularly the Rhodes/HartRAO 2300 MHz all-sky survey, and speculate on future projects.  相似文献   

Pyramidal ice crystal scattering phase functions and concentric halos     

C. Liu  P. R. Jonas  C. P. R. Saunders 《Annales Geophysicae》1997,14(11):1192-1197

Phase functions have been calculated using the Monte Carlo/geometric ray tracing method for single hexagonal pyramidal ice crystals (such as solid and hollow bullets) randomly oriented in space and horizontal plane, in order to study the concentric halo formations. Results from three dimensional model calculations show that 9° halo can be as bright as the common 22° halo for pyramidal angle of 28°, and the 18°, 20°, 24° and 35° halos cannot be seen due to the strong 22° halo domination in the scattering phase function between 18° and 35°. For solid pyramidal ice crystals randomly oriented horizontally, the 35° arc can be produced and its intensity depends on the incident ray solar angle and the particle aspect ratio.  相似文献   

Signal and distribution of volatile Mercury (Hg0) in the Marine High Arctic During Polar Summer in the Sequel of Enhanced Atmospheric Deposition of HgⅡ     

Jonas O. Sommar  Maria E. Andersson 《矿物岩石地球化学通报》2008,27(Z1)

1 Introduction It has been elucidated that high levels of neurotoxic mercury (Hg) in the Arctic is related to a rapid, near-compete depletion of Hg0 (MDE) in the atmospheric boundary-layer occurring episodically during the Polar spring[1].  相似文献   

The challenges of monitoring national climate policy: learning lessons from the EU     

Jonas J. Schoenefeld  Mikael Hildén  Andrew J. Jordan 《Climate Policy》2018,18(1):118-128

One of the most central and novel features of the new climate governance architecture emerging from the 2015 Paris Agreement is the transparency framework committing countries to provide, inter alia, regular progress reports on national pledges to address climate change. Many countries will rely on public policies to turn their pledges into action. This article focuses on the EU’s experience with monitoring national climate policies in order to understand the challenges that are likely to arise as the Paris Agreement is implemented around the world. To do so, the research employs – for the first time – comparative empirical data submitted by states to the EU’s monitoring system. Our findings reveal how the EU’s predominantly technical interpretation of four international reporting quality criteria – an approach borrowed from reporting on GHG fluxes – has constrained knowledge production and stymied debate on the performance of individual climate policies. Key obstacles to more in-depth reporting include not only political concerns over reporting burdens and costs, but also struggles over who determines the nature of climate policy monitoring, the perceived usefulness of reporting information, and the political control that policy knowledge inevitably generates. Given the post-Paris drive to achieve greater transparency, the EU’s experience offers a sobering reminder of the political and technical challenges associated with climate policy monitoring, challenges that are likely to bedevil the Paris Agreement for decades to come.

Policy relevance

The 2009 Copenhagen summit ushered in a more bottom-up system of international climate governance. Such systems typically depend on strong monitoring approaches to assess past performance and estimate future national contributions over time. This article shows why decision makers at multiple governance levels should pay serious attention to empirical data on the experiences and challenges that have emerged around monitoring in the EU, a self-proclaimed climate leader. The analysis highlights key political and administrative challenges that policy makers will likely encounter in implementing climate policy monitoring and ensuring transparency in the spirit of the Paris Agreement.  相似文献   

On the Gas Phase Reactions Between Volatile Biogenic Mercury Species and the Nitrate Radical   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Jonas Sommar  Mattias Hallquist  Evert Ljungström  Oliver Lindqvist 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1997,27(3):233-247

Tropospheric mercury is dominated by gas phase species. In this paper, the gas phase reactions between the nitrate radical and volatile biogenic mercury species have been investigated. An upper limit for the gas phase rate coefficient for reaction between elemental mercury and NO₃-radicals was determined to 4 × 10^–15 cm³ molecule^–1 s^–1 by using the fast flow-discharge technique. The reaction between dimethyl mercury and NO₃, previously shown to be rapid, has also been studied in the laboratory with respect to product distribution using FT-IR. The result from the product study is consistent with a transformation of dimethyl mercury into inorganic, divalent mercury. All carbon delivered as dimethyl mercury was transformed into formaldehyde, methanol and methyl peroxynitrate. Hg was observed as a minor (2%) product. By exclusion, HgO is proposed as the mercury-containing product. Thus, the reaction between dimethyl mercury and the nitrate radical is excluded as a source of monomethyl mercury species in the atmosphere.  相似文献   

Mass-transport deposits and reservoir quality of Upper Cretaceous Chalk within the German Central Graben,North Sea     

Jashar Arfai  Rüdiger Lutz  Dieter Franke  Christoph Gaedicke  Jonas Kley 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2016,105(3):797-818

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Linking rainfall-induced landslides with predictions of debris flow runout distances     

Jonas von Ruette  Peter Lehmann  Dani Or 《Landslides》2016,13(5):1097-1107

Rapid debris flows are among the most destructive natural hazards in steep mountainous terrains. Prediction of their path and impact hinges on knowledge of initiation location and the size and constitution of the released mass. To better link mass release initiation with debris flow paths and runout lengths, we propose to capitalize on a newly developed model for rainfall-induced landslide initiation (“Catchment-scale Hydro-mechanical Landslide Triggering” CHLT model, von Ruette et al. 2013) and couple it with simple estimates of debris flow runout distances and pathways. Landslide locations and volumes provided by the CHLT model are used as inputs to simulate debris flow runout distances with two empirical- and two physically-based models. The debris flow runout models were calibrated using two landslide inventories in the Swiss Alps obtained following a large rainfall event in 2005. We first fitted and tested the models for the “Prättigau” inventory, where detailed information on runout path was available, and then applied the models to landslides inventoried from a different catchment (“Napf”). The predicted debris flow runout distances (emanating from CHLT simulated landslide positions) were well in the range of observed values for the physically-based approaches. The empirical approaches tend to overestimate runout distances relative to observations. These preliminary results demonstrate the added value of linking shallow landslide triggering models with predictions of debris flow runout pathways for a range of soil states and triggering events, thus providing a more complete hazard assessment picture for debris flow exposure at the catchment scale.  相似文献