Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland     

Erik Rüttener  Juan José Egozcue  Dieter Mayer-Rosa  Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.  相似文献   

Distances to planetary nebulae with [WR]-type central stars     

Sławomir K. Górny 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1996,238(1):79-82

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Red dust rain within the Spanish Mediterranean area     

José Quereda Sala  Jorge Olcina Cantos  Enrique Montón Chiva 《Climatic change》1996,32(2):215-228

Dust rain belongs to the climatological conditions of the Iberian Peninsula's Mediterranean seaboard. Traditionally known as muddy' or bloody rains, red dust rain has become a topical issue as a result of more frequent rainfall of this kind in recent years. In spite of the difficulties that studying this phenomenon involves, owing to the lack of systematically kept records at meteorological observatories, details are provided of the high frequency of such phenomena within the Spanish Mediterranean area, using records from other phenological sources. The study analyzes the chemical composition of red dust rain and the atmospheric factors giving rise to such phenomena. Whether there is a relationship betwen the higher frequency of dust rain and possible changes in global atmospheric circulation is as yet unclear.  相似文献   

About the specification of erosion flux for soft stratified cohesive sediments     

Georges Chapalain  Y. Peter Sheng  André T. Temperville 《Mathematical Geology》1994,26(6):651-676

The present paper deals with the specification of bed erosion flux that accounts for the effects of sediment-induced stratification in the water column. Owing to difficulties in measuring the bed shear stress _b and the erosive shear strength _s, we suggest a series of methods that combine laboratory and numerical experiments. A simplified turbulent transport model that includes these effects helps to quantify _b and _s. Focusing on soft stratified beds, the present study considers erosion rate formulas of the form =_f exp {[T_b-T_s]} where is a model constant (=1 for Gularte's (1978) formula and =1/2 for Parchure's (1984) formula). First, the bed erosive strength profile _s(Z) is adjusted by forcing the turbulent transport model with measured erosion rates. Second, three procedures are suggested to determine the erosion rate formula coefficients _f and : a global procedure and two different layer-by-layer procedures. Each procedure is applied to an erosion experiment conducted in a rotating annular flume by Villaret and Paulic (1986). The use of the layer-by-layer procedure based on a least squares fitting technique provides a closer fit than the global procedure. The present study points out the complementarity of experimental and numerical approaches and also suggests possible improvements in laboratory test procedures.  相似文献   

Laboratory study of the rates and products of the phototransformations of naphthalene adsorbed on samples of titanium dioxide,ferric oxide,muscovite, and fly ash     

Chantal Guillard  Hervé Delprat  Can Hoang-van  Pierre Pichat 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1993,16(1):47-59

The photodegradation of naphthalene (NPH), chosen as a model of polynuclear aromatic pollutants, has been studied in the presence of a layer of four water-insoluble inorganic solids which can be found in the troposphere (TiO₂, Fe₂O₃, muscovite, and a fly ash sample). Direct photolysis of NPH is negligible at >340 nm. Dark adsorption of NPH on TiO₂ (mainly anatase, nonporous, 50 m² g^–1) at 293 K corresponds to a surface coverage ofca. 50% at equilibrium. Under these conditions (saturated surface), the stationary-state photocatalytic degradation reaches 0.4 molecule nm^–2 h^–1 (>340 nm, radiant fluxca. 22 mW cm^–2). Dioxygen is required and its partial pressure in air is such that the degradation is zero order in O₂. Water vapor markedly increases the rate. The other particulates have also an effect, less important than that of TiO₂, however quite noticeable with respect to surface area unit for the fly ash sample which contains 3.2% Fe₂O₃. Apart from 1,4-naphthoquinone, which is the main intermediate product in all cases, 2-naphthol, phthalide, phthaldialdehyde, phthalic acid, acetophenone, benzaldehyde, benzoic acid are also formed on dry TiO₂. Depending on their volatility, these compounds are transferred to the gas phase or remain principally adsorbed on the solid particles where they are further transformed. For instance, phthalic acid (or anhydride) and benzoic acid are generated from 1,4-naphthoquinone. Degradation mechanisms are briefly discussed.  相似文献   

On the tidal variation of the geopotential     

José M. Ferrándiz  Juan Getino 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1993,57(1-2):279-292

In this paper analytical expressions are derived for the temporal variations ofJ ₂ andJ ₂₂ due to the tides of the solid Earth, taking into account only the deformation of the mantle, and employing a procedure already used by the authors in their Hamiltonian theory of the Earth's rotation, which obtain the necessary parameters in a direct way by integration of those provided by a selected model of Earth interior.Numerical tables giving the periodic variation of coefficients are given, as well as a new prediction for UT1. For J ₂ and J ₂₂ the amplitudes reach such a magnitude that both two variations should not be ignored in studies involving the analysis of highly precise satellite tracking data. Moreover, the possibility of improving our knowledge of the value of those harmonic coefficients in only a more exact digit appears as to be strongly dependent on the limitations in the theoretical modeling of the variations of the inertia tensor due to solid tides.  相似文献   

A multifractal analysis of lidar measured water vapour     

J. E. Pinzón  C. E. Puente  M. B. Parlange  W. Eichinger 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1995,76(4):323-347

Accurate and fast-response measurements of space-time observations of specific humidity were made above a drying land surface at the University of California at Davis, using the Los Alamos water Raman-lidar. In an attempt to quantify the space-time intermittency features of turbulent flows in the lower atmosphere, a multifractal analysis of these water vapour measurements was performed. The structure of the specific humidity, (x, t), was analyzed quantifying a scalar gradient measure both in time and space, for all possible one-dimensional cuts, i.e. and . The results confirm the multifractal nature of this scalar gradient measure (a type of scalar dissipation rate) and show that humidity measurements at fixed times (x) are more intermittent (e.g. have less entropy dimension) than those at fixed locations in space (t). Similar multifractal behaviour of the spatial data, with and without a transformation from the observed wind velocities, supports the validity of Taylor's hypothesis for the studied fields.  相似文献   

Crustal xenoliths from Calbuco Volcano,Andean Southern Volcanic Zone: implications for crustal composition and magma-crust interaction   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Rosemary Hickey-Vargas  Mohammad J. Abdollahi  Miguel A. Parada  Leopoldo López-Escobar  Fred A. Frey 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1995,119(4):331-344

Crustal xenoliths in the 1961 andesite flow of Calbuco Volcano, in the southern Southern Volcanic Zone (SSVZ) of the Andes, consist predominantly of pyroxene granulites and hornblende gabbronorites. The granulites contain plagioclase+pyroxene+magnetite±amphibole, and have pronounced granoblastic textures. Small amounts of relict amphibole surrounded by pyroxene-plagioclase-magnetite-glass symplectites are found in some specimens. These and similar textures in the gabbronorites are interpreted as evidence of dehydration melting. Mineral and bulk rock geochemical data indicate that the granulites are derived from an incompatible trace element depleted basaltic protolith that underwent two stages of metamorphism: a moderate pressure, high temperature stage accompanied by melting and melt extraction from some samples, followed by thermal metamorphism after entrainment in the Calbuco andesite lavas. High _Nd ^T values (+4.0 to +8.6), Nd-isotope model ages of 1.7–2.0 Ga, and trace element characteristics like chondrite normalized La/Yb< and La/Nb1 indicate that the protoliths were oceanic basalts. Similar oceanic metabasalts of greenschist to amphibolite facies are found in the Paleozoic metamorphic belt that underlies the Chilean coastal ranges. Mineral and bulk rock compositions of the gabbronorite xenoliths indicate that they are cognate, crystallizing from the basaltic andesite magma at Calbuco. Crystallization pressures for the gabbros based on total Al contents in amphibole are 6–8 kbar. These pressures point to middle to lower crustal storage of the Calbuco magma. Neither granulite nor gabbro xenoliths have the appropriate geochemical characteristics to be contaminants of Calbuco andesites, although an ancient sedimentary contaminant is indicated by the lava compositions. The presence of oceanic metabasaltic xenoliths, together with the sedimentary isotopic imprint, suggests that the lower crust beneath the volcano is analogous to the coastal metamorphic belt, which is an accretionary complex of intercalated basalts and sediments that formed along the Paleozoic Gondwanan margin. If this is the case, the geochemical composition of the lower and middle crust beneath the SSVZ is significantly different from that of most recent SSVZ volcanic rocks.  相似文献   

Molecular indicators for palaeoenvironmental change in a Messinian evaporitic sequence (Vena del Gesso, Italy). II: High-resolution variations in abundances and 13C contents of free and sulphur-bound carbon skeletons in a single marl bed     

Kenig F  Damsté JS  Frewin NL  Hayes JM  De Leeuw JW 《Organic Geochemistry》1995,23(6):485-526

The extractable organic matter of 10 immature samples from a marl bed of one evaporitic cycle of the Vena del Gesso sediments (Gessoso-solfifera Fm., Messinian, Italy) was analyzed quantitatively for free hydrocarbons and organic sulphur compounds. Nickel boride was used as a desulphurizing agent to recover sulphur-bound lipids from the polar and asphaltene fractions. Carbon isotopic compositions (delta vs PDB) of free hydrocarbons and of S-bound hydrocarbons were also measured. Relationships between these carbon skeletons, precursor biolipids, and the organisms producing them could then be examined. Concentrations of S-bound lipids and free hydrocarbons and their delta values were plotted vs depth in the marl bed and the profiles were interpreted in terms of variations in source organisms, 13 C contents of the carbon source, and environmentally induced changes in isotopic fractionation. The overall range of delta values measured was 24.7%, from -11.6% for a component derived from green sulphur bacteria (Chlorobiaceae) to -36.3% for a lipid derived from purple sulphur bacteria (Chromatiaceae). Deconvolution of mixtures of components deriving from multiple sources (green and purple sulphur bacteria, coccolithophorids, microalgae and higher plants) was sometimes possible because both quantitative and isotopic data were available and because either the free or S-bound pool sometimes appeared to contain material from a single source. Several free n-alkanes and S-bound lipids appeared to be specific products of upper-water-column primary producers (i.e. algae and cyanobacteria). Others derived from anaerobic photoautotrophs and from heterotrophic protozoa (ciliates), which apparently fed partly on Chlorobiaceae. Four groups of n-alkanes produced by algae or cyanobacteria were also recognized based on systematic variations of abundance and isotopic composition with depth. For hydrocarbons probably derived from microalgae, isotopic variations are well correlated with those of total organic carbon. A resistant aliphatic biomacromolecule produced by microalgae is, therefore, probably an important component of the kerogen. These variations reflect changes in the depositional environment and early diagenetic transformations. Changes in the concentrations of S-bound lipids induced by variations in conditions favourable for sulphurization were discriminated from those related to variations in primary producer assemblages. The water column of the lagoonal basin was stratified and photic zone anoxia occurred during the early and middle stages of marl deposition. During the last stage of the marl deposition the stratification collapsed due to a significant shallowing of the water column. Contributions from anaerobic photoautotrophs were apparently associated with variations in depth of the chemocline.  相似文献   

Dynamical evolution of NEAs: Close encounters, secular perturbations and resonances     

Patrick Michel  Christiane Froeschlé  Paolo Farinella 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1995,71(3):151-164

We discuss the main mechanisms affecting the dynamical evolution of Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by analyzing the results of three numerical integrations over 1 Myr of the NEA (4179) Toutatis. In the first integration the only perturbing planet is the Earth. So the evolution is dominated by close encounters and looks like a random walk in semimajor axis and a correlated random walk in eccentricity, keeping almost constant the perihelion distance and the Tisserand invariant. In the second integration Jupiter and Saturn are present instead of the Earth, and the 3/1 (mean motion) and v ₆ (secular) resonances substantially change the eccentricity but not the semimajor axis. The third, most realistic, integration including all the three planets together shows a complex interplay of effects, with close encounters switching the orbit between different resonant states and no approximate conservation of the Tisserand invariant. This shows that simplified 3-body or 4-body models cannot be used to predict the typical evolution patterns and time scales of NEAs, and in particular that resonances provide some fast-track dynamical routes from low-eccentricity to very eccentric, planet-crossing orbits.On leave from the Department of Mathematics, University of Pisa, Via Buonarroti 2, 56127 Pisa, Italy, thanks to the G. Colombo fellowships of the European Space Agency.  相似文献