Are Natural Climate Forcings Able to Counteract the Projected Anthropogenic Global Warming?     

Cédric Bertrand  Jean-Pascal van Ypersele  André Berger 《Climatic change》2002,55(4):413-427

A two-dimensional global climate model is used to assessthe climatic changes associated with the new IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and to determine which kind of changes in total solar irradiance and volcanic perturbations could mask the projected anthropogenic global warming associated to the SRES scenarios. Our results suggest that only extremely unlikely changes in total solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions would be able to overcome the simulated anthropogenic global warming over the century. Nevertheless, in the critical interval of the next two decades the externally-driven natural climate variability might possibly confuse the debate about temperature trends and impede detection of the anthropogenic climate change signal.  相似文献   

Groundwater-flow modeling in the Yucatan karstic aquifer, Mexico   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Roger González-Herrera  Ismael Sánchez-y-Pinto  José Gamboa-Vargas 《Hydrogeology Journal》2002,10(5):539-552

The current conceptual model of the unconfined karstic aquifer in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, is that a fresh-water lens floats above denser saline water that penetrates more than 40 km inland. The transmissivity of the aquifer is very high so the hydraulic gradient is very low, ranging from 7–10 mm/km through most of the northern part of the peninsula. The computer modeling program AQUIFER was used to investigate the regional groundwater flow in the aquifer. The karstified zone was modeled using the assumption that it acts hydraulically similar to a granular, porous medium. As part of the calibration, the following hypotheses were tested: (1) karstic features play an important role in the groundwater-flow system; (2) a ring or belt of sinkholes in the area is a manifestation of a zone of high transmissivity that facilitates the channeling of groundwater toward the Gulf of Mexico; and (3) the geologic features in the southern part of Yucatan influence the groundwater-flow system. The model shows that the Sierrita de Ticul fault, in the southwestern part of the study area, acts as a flow barrier and head values decline toward the northeast. The modeling also shows that the regional flow-system dynamics have not been altered despite the large number of pumping wells because the volume of water pumped is small compared with the volume of recharge, and the well-developed karst system of the region has a very high hydraulic conductivity. Electronic Publication  相似文献   

Simultaneous use of geochemical and geophysical methods to characterise abandoned landfills     

José F. Noguera  Lluís Rivero  Xavier Font  Andrés Navarro  Francisco Martínez 《Environmental Geology》2002,41(8):898-905

. Groundwater sampling and geophysical methods determined a serious contamination problem associated with refilled exploitation sites at the Cal Dimoni area, Llobregat delta, Barcelona, Spain. To characterise this process, hydrogeochemical analyses were performed and showed the following modifications to groundwater chemical composition: increasing pH values, changing redox conditions, significant increases in total organic carbon (TOC) and certain trace elements, and high groundwater conductivity values. Major ion content accumulations were found under the refilled area. In contrast, elements involved in the oxidation–reduction processes, such as iron, manganese and nitrates, clearly diminished. Electromagnetic prospecting methods were also performed and delineated the contamination plume extent. These methods also showed separate sources of contamination, one clearly related to the groundwater–refilled zone leachate interaction, another as a consequence of the manure–accumulation surface site. Geochemical and geophysical methods have shown similar results for locating groundwater contamination sources, and for determining leachate generation mechanisms and flow paths.  相似文献   

U–Pb evidence for a polyorogenic evolution of the HP–HT units of the NW Iberian Massif     

Javier Fernández-Suárez  Fernando Corfu  Ricardo Arenas  Alberto Marcos  José R. Martínez Catalán  Florentino García  Jacobo Abati  Francisco J. Fernández 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2002,143(2):236-253

. A isotope dilution thermal ionisation mass spectrometry U-Pb geochronological study was carried out on the high-pressure and high-temperature units (HP-HT units) overlying the oceanic suture in the Allochthonous Complexes of the NW Iberian Variscan Belt. The rocks investigated are seven granulite- to eclogite-facies paragneisses and one leucosome within mafic high-pressure granulites in the Ordenes and Cabo Ortegal Complexes of NW Spain. U-Pb dating of zircon, monazite, titanite and rutile reveal the presence of a pervasive Early Ordovician metamorphic event at ca. 500-480 Ma and a later Early Devonian event at ca. 400-380 Ma. The U-Pb ages, in conjunction with petrological and structural data, indicate that the high-pressure event recorded by these rocks is Early Ordovician in age. Monazite ages in the paragneisses suggest that peak metamorphic conditions were reached at ca. 500-485 Ma. Subsequently, the rock ensemble underwent exhumation accompanied by partial melting and zircon growth at ca. 485-470 Ma. Melting of mafic granulites was coeval with this latter episode as indicated by zircon crystallisation age in the leucosomes dated at ca. 486 Ma. Based on these data and on the general features of magmatism and metamorphic evolution, it is proposed that this process took place at a convergent plate boundary within a peri-Gondwanan oceanic domain. Monazite, titanite and rutile data in some of the samples studied show evidence of a second metamorphic episode that took place between ca. 400 and 380 Ma (with a peak at ca. 390-385 Ma). This Early Devonian event, at variance with the previous one, was not pervasive, but, rather, was localised in areas of intense Variscan tectonothermal reworking. It is claimed that this later metamorphic event was recorded by the U-Pb system in areas where monazite and titanite growth was enhanced by fluid circulation in highly strained rocks (Variscan shear zones). According to previous structural studies and Ar-Ar dating of fabrics, this Early Devonian episode took place as the HP-HT units were deformed and thrusted upon the ophiolitic units in the early stages of the Variscan collision.  相似文献   

Al hematites prepared by homogeneous precipitation of oxinates: material characterization and determination of the Morin transition     

G. M. da Costa  E. Van San  E. De Grave  R. E. Vandenberghe  V. Barrón  L. Datas 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2002,29(2):122-131

A novel method for synthesis of aluminium hematites, based upon the homogeneous precipitation of Fe and Al oxinates in various proportions, is presented. The precursor precipitates are heated in air at 700?°C. X-ray diffraction, thermal analyses, BET, FTIR, optical reflection analysis, TEM and Mössbauer spectroscopy at room temperature and 80?K of the resulting products indicate that single-phase hematites are formed with structural Al substitution of up to 10 at%. Interestingly, the particle size (>100?nm) is not substantially reduced by the Al content. Although it remains difficult to obtain a homogeneously distributed Al substitution in the final hematite, this processing line offers a unique opportunity to separate the effects of grain size and Al substitution on the Morin transition temperature (T _M) of Al hematite. From the comparison between the present hematites and a series of Al-substituted hematites with lepidocrocite as precursor, it could be shown that the effect on T _M, associated with a change of a factor 10 in grain size, is about 1/3 of the effect caused by a change of 10 in the degree of substitution. Finally, it is suggested that proper thermal treatments under different conditions of the same precursors are likely to produce spinel phases.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal variation of the nekton and hyperbenthos from a temperate European estuary with regulated freshwater inflow     

Pilar Drake  Alberto M. Arias  Francisco Baldó  José A. Cuesta  Antonio Rodríguez  Alfonso Silva-Garcia  Ignacio Sobrino  Diego García-González  Carlos Fernández-Delgado 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(3):451-468

The aquatic macrofauna of the Guadalquivir estuary were sampled (1 mm mesh persiana net) at 5 sampling sites located along the entire (except the tidal freshwater region) estuarine gradient of salinity (outer 50 km). A total of 134 fish and macroinvertebrate species was collected but only 62 were considered common or regularly present in the estuary. Univariate measures of the community structure showed statistically significant differences among sampling sites: species richness, abundance, and biomass decreased in the upstream direction, being positively correlated with the salinity. Temporal differences of these three variables were also statistically significant. While a clear seasonal pattern (minimum densities in winter and maximum in spring-summer) was observed for abundance and biomass, no such pattern existed for the number of species. Mysids was the most dominant group throughout the estuary (96% to 99% of abundance; 49% to 85% of biomass), although fish biomass was also important at the outer estuary (36% to 38%). Multivariate analyses indicated highly significant spatial variation in the macrofaunal communities observed along the salinity gradient. These analyses suggest that the underlying structure was a continuum with more or less overlapping distributions of the species dependent on their ability to tolerate different physicochemical conditions. There were also significant temporal (intermonthly + interannual) variation of the estuarine community; the relative multivariate dispersion indicated that monthly variation was more considerable (relative multivariate dispersion >1) at the outer part of the estuary during the wet year (last 20 km) and was higher in the inner stations during the dry year (32 to 50 km from the river mouth). Since a clear negative exponential relationship was observed between the freshwater input (from a dam located 110 km upstream) and water salinity at all sampling stations, it is concluded that the human freshwater management is probably affecting the studied estuarine communities. While the higher seasonal (long-term) stability of the salinity gradient, due to the human control of the freshwater input, may facilitate the recruitment of marine species juveniles during the meteorologically unstable early-spring, the additional (short-term) salinity fluctuations during the warm period may negatively affect species that complete their lifecycle within the estuary.  相似文献   

An estuarine benthic index of biotic integrity for the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. II. Index development     

Roberto J. Llansó  Lisa C. Scott  Jeffrey L. Hyland  Daniel M. Dauer  David E. Russell  Frederick W. Kutz 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(6):1231-1242

A benthic index of biotic integrity was developed for use in estuaries of the mid-Atlantic region of the United States (Delaware Bay estuary through Albemarle-Pamlico Sound). The index was developed for the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment Program (MAIA) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency using procedures similar to those applied previously in Chesapeake Bay and southeastern estuaries, and was based on sampling in July through early October. Data from seven federal and state sampling programs were used to categorize sites as degraded or non-degraded based on dissolved oxygen, sediment contaminant, and sediment toxicity criteria. Various metrics of benthic community structure and function that distinguished between degraded and reference (non-degraded) sites were selected for each of five major habitat types defined by classification analysis of assemblages. Each metric was scored according to thresholds established on the distribution of values at reference sites, so that sites with low scoring metrics would be expected to show signs of degradation. For each habitat, metrics that correctly classified at least 50% of the degraded sites in the calibration data set were selected whenever possible to derive the index. The final index integrated the average score of the combination of metrics that performed best according to several criteria. Selected metrics included measures of productivity (abundance), diversity (number of taxa, Shannon-Wiener diversity, percent dominance), species composition and life history (percent abundance of pollution-indicative taxa, percent abundance of pollution-sensitive taxa, percent abundance of Bivalvia, Tanypodinae-Chironomidae abundance ratio), and trophic composition (percent abundance of deep-deposit feeders). The index correctly classified 82% of all sites in an independent data set. Classification efficiencies of sites were higher in the mesohaline and polyhaline habitats (81–92%) than in the oligohaline (71%) and the tidal freshwater (61%). Although application of the index to low salinity habitats should be done with caution, the MAIA index appeared to be quite reliable with a high likelihood of correctly identifying both degraded and non-degraded conditions. The index is expected to be of great utility in regional assessments as a tool for evaluating the integrity of benthic assemblages and tracking their condition over time.  相似文献   

Seismic Hazard Estimate at the Iberian Peninsula   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. A. Peláez Montilla  C. López Casado 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2002,159(11-12):2699-2713

—?Seismic hazard at the Iberian Peninsula has been evaluated by using a methodology which combines both zonified and non-zonified probabilistic methods. Seismic sources are used when considering zones where certain calculation parameters may be considered homogeneous, as in zonified methods, while, on the other hand, earthquakes are considered wherever it has taken place, as in non-zonified methods. The methodology which is applied in this paper has been originally used to calculate the seismic hazard maps in the United States. In our case, it has been necessary to adapt the method to the specific features of the seismicity in the Iberian Peninsula and its geographical surroundings, not only with respect to its distribution and characteristics, but also with respect to the properties of the seismic catalog used.¶Geographically, the main feature of the result is the fact that it reflects both historical seismicity and current seismic clusters of the region. Despite the smoothing, maps show marked differences between several seismic zones; these differences becoming more noticeable as exposure time increases. Maximum seismic hazard is found to be in the southwestern region of the Peninsula, especially in the area of the Cape St. Vicent, and around Lisbon. The uncertainty of the results, without considering that due to the attenuation laws, as deduced from the other evaluation parameters, is quite stable, being more sensitive to the parameters b and m _max of the Gutenberg-Richter relation.  相似文献   

Rock magnetic evidence of inflation of a flood basalt lava flow     

Edgardo Cañón-Tapia  Robert Coe 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2002,64(5):289-302

The anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) of lava flows is an innovative method which has been proved to be directly related to the shear history of lava. One of the advantages of this method is that it can be used in the absence of other morphological features commonly employed to study the mechanism of emplacement of lava flows. This feature of the AMS method makes it very attractive to gain insight into the mechanism of emplacement of massive, relatively featureless, long lava flows such as those forming flood basalt provinces. In this work, we report the results of the measurement of AMS as a function of vertical position within the Birkett lava flow, one of the Columbia River Basalt Group flows. The observed variation of AMS allows us to identify at least 16 discrete events of lava injection and to estimate the thickness of individual injection events. The AMS-estimated thickness of each injection event (in the range of 0.5-4.0 m) coincides with the range inferred for injected lava pulses in modern Hawaiian lava flows. Thus, the evidence provided by the AMS method supports the notion that at least some flood basalt lava flows were emplaced by the same mechanism as many present-day inflated pahoehoe flows. Regarding the orientation of the principal susceptibilities, in the central part of the flow they define a preferred orientation along an E-W trend, whereas in the outer parts of the flow they have a NNE-SSW trend. This difference in the orientation of the principal susceptibilities is interpreted as the result of a change of flow direction of the lava as emplacement progressed. Electronic supplementary material to this paper can be obtained by using the Springer LINK server located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-002-0203-8.  相似文献   

On the Acoustic-Electromagnetic Analogy for the Reflection-Refraction Problem     

Carcione  José M.  Robinson  Enders A. 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2002,46(2):321-346

The same mathematical theory can be used to describe physical phenomena of different nature. For instance, the wave equation and the related mathematical developments can be used to describe elastic and electromagnetic wave propagation, and it is also extensively used in quantum mechanics. Fresnel's equations are a classical example of the analogy between shear waves and light waves. George Green in the nineteenth century, used analogies to obtain the reflection coefficients for sound waves and light waves, before the advent of the electromagnetic theory of light.In this work, we investigate the mathematical analogy between elastic waves and electromagentic waves. We obtain a complete parallelism for the reflection and refraction problem, considering the most general situation, that is, the presence of anisotropy and attenuation—viscosity in the elastic case and conductivity in the electromagnetic case. The analogy is illustrated with Fresnel's equations, the Brewster and critical angles, the concept of reflectivity and transmissivity, and the corresponding duals fields. The analysis of the elastic-solid theory of reflection applied by Green to light waves, and a brief historical review of wave propagation through the ether, further illustrate the analogy.  相似文献