The End-to-End Attribution Problem: From Emissions to Impacts     

Dáithí?A.?StoneEmail author  Myles?R.?Allen 《Climatic change》2005,71(3):303-318

When a damaging extreme meteorological event occurs, the question often arises as to whether that event was caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The question is more than academic, since people affected by the event will be interested in recurring damages if they find that someone is at fault. However, since this extreme event could have occurred by chance in an unperturbed climate, we are currently unable to properly respond to this question. A solution lies in recognising the similarity with the cause-effect issue in the epidemiological field. The approach there is to consider the changes in the risk of the event occurring as attributable, as against the occurrence of the event itself. Inherent in this approach is a recognition that knowledge of the change in risk as well as the amplitude of the forcing itself are uncertain. Consequently, the fraction of the risk attributable to the external forcing is a probabilistic quantity. Here we develop and demonstrate this methodology in the context of the climate change problem.  相似文献   

Historical Climatology In Europe – The State Of The Art     

Rudolf?BráZdilEmail author  Christian?Pfister  Heinz?Wanner  Hans?Von?Storch  JüRg?Luterbacher 《Climatic change》2005,70(3):363-430

This paper discusses the state of European research in historical climatology. This field of science and an overview of its development are described in detail. Special attention is given to the documentary evidence used for data sources, including its drawbacks and advantages. Further, methods and significant results of historical-climatological research, mainly achieved since 1990, are presented. The main focus concentrates on data, methods, definitions of the “Medieval Warm Period” and the “Little Ice Age”, synoptic interpretation of past climates, climatic anomalies and natural disasters, and the vulnerability of economies and societies to climate as well as images and social representations of past weather and climate. The potential of historical climatology for climate modelling research is discussed briefly. Research perspectives in historical climatology are formulated with reference to data, methods, interdisciplinarity and impacts.  相似文献   

The seismic activity in Syria and Palestine during the middle of the 8th century; an amalgamation of historical earthquakes     

N.?N.?AmbraseysEmail author 《Journal of Seismology》2005,9(1):115-125

Some historical earthquakes are distinct owing to the geographical distance of the places affected. It is less clear, however, when more than one earthquake is amalgamated into a single event and their combined effects are attributed to a major event. In order to avoid gross overestimation of the size of historical earthquakes the separation and identification of the constituent earthquakes is an important consideration. As an example we show how the tendency of early and modern writers to amalgamate or duplicate earthquakes in Syria and Palestine can lead to the creation of major earthquakes, with serious consequences for the assessment of the seismic hazard in the region.  相似文献   

Second Tesseral Harmonic Torque Due to the DynamicS of the Oceanic Surface Layer as Detected by TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimetry 1993-2000     

M. Burša  S. Kenyon  J. Kouba  Z. Šíma  V. Vatrt  V. Vítek  M. Vojtíšková 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2005,49(1):13-22

Estimates of the second tesseral torque due to the variations in the radial space position of the mean ocean surface as monitored by TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter system are derived. The magnitude of the studied torque may be compared to the tidal torque and to the tesseral torque caused by deformations due to the Earths rotation. However, such torque estimates strongly depend on the thickness of the ocean surface layer adopted in the spherical model of which the dynamics is believed to be responsible for the derived torque. The dependence on the thickness is discussed.  相似文献   

Equations for the Estimation of Strong Ground Motions from Shallow Crustal Earthquakes Using Data from Europe and the Middle East: Horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration and Spectral Acceleration   总被引：25，自引：13，他引：12  

N.?N.?AmbraseysEmail author  J.?Douglas  S.?K.?Sarma  P.?M.?Smit 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2005,3(1):1-53

This article presents equations for the estimation of horizontal strong ground motions caused by shallow crustal earthquakes with magnitudes M_w 5 and distance to the surface projection of the fault less than 100km. These equations were derived by weighted regression analysis, used to remove observed magnitude-dependent variance, on a set of 595 strong-motion records recorded in Europe and the Middle East. Coefficients are included to model the effect of local site effects and faulting mechanism on the observed ground motions. The equations include coefficients to model the observed magnitude-dependent decay rate. The main findings of this study are that: short-period ground motions from small and moderate magnitude earthquakes decay faster than the commonly assumed 1/r, the average effect of differing faulting mechanisms is not large and corresponds to factors between 0.8 (normal and odd) and 1.3 (thrust) with respect to strike-slip motions and that the average long-period amplification caused by soft soil deposits is about 2.6 over those on rock sites. Disappointingly the standard deviations associated with the derived equations are not significantly lower than those found in previous studies.  相似文献   

Exact cosmological solutions in Brans and Dicke's scalar-tensor theory,I     

H. Dehnen  O. Obregón 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1971,14(2):454-459

The exact solution is sought for the cosmological equations of Brans and Dicke's scalar-tensor theory when a power law exists between the gravitational constant and the radius of curvature of the universe. For the space of negative curvature no solution is possible. On the contrary for a closed space the gravitational constant and the radius of curvature increase linearly with respect to the age of the universe. The parameter of the scalar-tensor theory is necessarily negative and can be determined by the present values of the mass-density of the universe, the Hubble-constant and the gravitational constant. The solution has no analogy in Einstein's theory with vanishing cosmological constant, even when the deviations from Einstein's values of the solar relativistic effects are small.  相似文献   

Period analysis at high noise level     

G. Kovács 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1980,69(2):485-493

Analytical expressions are derived for the variances of some types of the periodograms due to normal-distributed noise present in the data. The equivalence of the Jurkevich and the Warner and Robinson methods is proved. The optimum phase cell number of the Warner and Robinson method is given; this number depends on the data length, signal form and noise level. The results are illustrated by numerical examples.  相似文献   

Spin-forbidden resonance multiplets in light elements     

B. Edlén  H. P. Palenius  K. Bockasten  R. Hallin  J. Bromander 《Solar physics》1969,9(2):432-438

We present new laboratory data on the multiplets 2s ^{2 1} S -2s2p ³ P, 2s ²2p ² P - 2s2p ^{2 4} P, and 2s ²2p ^{2 3} P - 2s2p ^{3 5} S in nitrogen, oxygen and fluorine, and discuss theZ-dependence of their wave-numbers. These multiplets are very faint in laboratory light sources, but can become prominent in astrophysical sources of low density. Our results confirm the solar identifications of the nitrogen and oxygen multiplets made by Burtonet al. Predicted positions of the corresponding multiplets in neon are given.  相似文献   

Aufgaben der Felsmechanik bei neuzeitlichen Tunnelrekonstruktionen     

A. Dvořák 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》1970,2(4):245-248

Zusammenfassung Aufgaben der Felsmechanik bei neuzeitlichen Tunnelrekonstruktionen. Für die neuzeitliche Tunnelbauweise müssen neue Erkundungsmethoden mit erweitertem Umfang felsmechanischer Prüfungen angewandt werden. Diese Forderung soll ebenso bei Rekonstruktionen erfüllt werden. Außer den mechanischen Eigenschaften werden auch die innere Spannung im Felsmassiv und in der Ausmauerung, die Mächtigkeit der gelockerten Zone sowie die Injektions- und Verankerungsmöglichkeit bestimmt.

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Summary The Function of Rock Mechanics in Modern Tunnelling. For modern methods of tunnel driving it is necessary to apply new procedures of geological investigations including large-scale rock mechanics tests. This view holds equally for reconstruction projects. In addition to the mechanical properties of the rock masses it is necessary to determine the intrinsic stresses in the rock and in the tunnel lining, the thickness of the inelastic (relaxed) zone around the tunnel, as well as the possibility of grouting and anchoring.

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Résumé Application de la mécanique des roches aux méthodes modernes de construction et de reconstruction des tunnels. Dans la technique moderne des tunnels il est nécessaire d'appliquer de nouvelles méthodes de reconnaissance comportant davantage d'essais de mécanique des roches. La même exigence est valable pour la reconstruction des tunnels. Outre les propriétés mécaniques du massif rocheux, on déterminera aussi les contraintes dans le rocher et dans le revêtement, l'épaisseur de la zone décomprimée et même les possibilités d'injection et de boulonnage.

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Vortrag, gehalten beim XIX. Geomechanik-Kolloquium in Salzburg am 17. Oktober 1969.

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Mit 2 Abbildungen  相似文献   

Origin and evolution of the earth-moon system     

Hannes Alfvén  Gustaf Arrhenius 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1972,5(1-2):210-230

The origin and evolution of the Earth-Moon system is studied by comparing it to the satellite systems of other planets. The normal structure of a system of secondary bodies orbiting around a central body depends essentially on the mass of the central body. The Earth with a mass intermediate between Uranus and Mars should have a normal satellite system that consists of about half a dozen satellites each with a mass of a fraction of a percent of the lunar mass. Hence, the Moon is not likely to have been generated in the environment of the Earth by a normal accretion process as is claimed by some authors.Capture of satellites is quite a common process as shown by the fact that there are six satellites in the solar system which, because they are retrograde, must have been captured. There is little doubt that the Moon is also a captured satellite, but its capture orbit and tidal evolution are still incompletely understood.The Earth and the Moon are likely to have been formed from planetesimals accreting in particle swarms in Kepler orbits (jet streams). This process leads to the formation of a cool lunar interior with an outer layer accreted at increasingly higher temperatures. The primeval Earth should similarly have formed with a cool inner core surrounded in this case by a very strongly heated outer core and with a mantle accreted slowly and with a low average temperature but with intense transient heating at each individual impact site.  相似文献