The Influence of Ground-Motion Variability in Earthquake Loss Modelling     

Julian J. Bommer  Helen Crowley 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2006,4(3):231-248

Earthquake loss models are subject to many large uncertainties associated with the input parameters that define the seismicity, the ground motion, the exposure and the vulnerability characteristics of the building stock. In order to obtain useful results from a loss model, it is necessary to correctly identify and characterise these uncertainties, incorporate them into the calculations, and then interpret the results taking account of the influence of the uncertainties. An important element of the uncertainty will always be the aleatory variability in the ground-motion prediction. Options for handling this variability include following the traditional approach used in site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard assessment or embedding the variability within the vulnerability calculations at each location. The physical interpretation of both of these approaches, when applied to many sites throughout an urban area to assess the overall effects of single or multiple earthquake events, casts doubts on their validity. The only approach that is consistent with the real nature of ground-motion variability is to model the shaking component of the loss model by triggering large numbers of earthquake scenarios that sample the magnitude and spatial distributions of the seismicity, and also the distribution of ground motions for each event as defined by the aleatory variability.  相似文献   

The Visualisation of Uncertainty for Spatially Referenced Census Data Using Hierarchical Tessellations     

Julian Kardos  George Benwell  Antoni Moore 《Transactions in GIS》2005,9(1):19-34

This paper explains why it is vital to account for uncertainty when utilising socioeco‐nomic data in a GIS, focusing on a novel and intuitive method to visually represent the uncertainty. In common with other data, it is not possible to know exactly how far from the truth socioeconomic data are. Therefore, when such data are used in a decision‐making environment an approximate measure given for correctness of data is an essential component. This is illustrated, using choropleth mapping techniques on census data as an example. Both attribute and spatial uncertainty are considered, with Monte Carlo statistical simulations being used to model attribute uncertainty. An appropriate visualisation technique to manage certain choropleth issues and uncer‐tainty in census type data is introduced, catering for attribute and spatial uncertainty simultaneously. This is done using the output from hierarchical spatial data structures, in particular the region quadtree and the HoR (Hexagon or Rhombus) quadtree. The variable cell size of these structures expresses uncertainty, with larger cell size indicating large uncertainty, and vice versa. This technique is illustrated using the New Zealand 2001 census data, and the TRUST (The Representation of Uncertainty using Scale‐unspecific Tessellations) software suite, designed to show spatial and attribute uncertainty whilst simultaneously displaying the original data.  相似文献   

Characteristics of Stable Flows over Southern Greenland     

Andrew Orr  Edward Hanna  Julian C.R. Hunt  John Cappelen  Konrad Steffen  AG Stephens 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2005,162(10):1747-1778

The main characteristic features of stable atmospheric flows over a large mountain plateau are summarised and then compared with mesoscale and synoptic scale numerical simulation, meteorological analysis, satellite imagery, and surface observations for the cases of flows over Southern Greenland for four wind directions. The detailed features are identified using the concepts and scaling of stably stratified flow over large mountains with variations in surface roughness, elevation, and heating. For westerly and easterly winds detached jets form at the southern tip, where coastal jets converge, which propagate large distances across the ocean. Near coasts katabatic winds can combine with barrier jets and wake flows generated by synoptic winds. Note how the approach flow rises/falls over southern Greenland for easterly/westerly winds, leading in both cases to more cloud on the western side. Some conclusions are drawn about the large-scale influences of these flows; detached jets in the atmosphere; air-sea interaction; formation of low pressure systems. For accurate simulations of these flows, mesoscale models are necessary with resolutions of order of 20 km or less.  相似文献   

Prediction of elastic displacement response spectra in Europe and the Middle East     

Sinan Akkar  Julian J. Bommer 《地震工程与结构动力学》2007,36(10):1275-1301

Empirical equations are presented for the prediction of displacement response ordinates for damping ratios of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 30% of critical and for response periods up to 4s, using 532 accelerograms from the strong‐motion databank from Europe and the Middle East. The records were all re‐processed and only employed for regressions at periods within the usable range, defined as a fraction of the filter cut‐off and depending on the instrument type (digital or analogue), earthquake magnitude and site class. The equations can be applied to predict the geometric mean displacement and pseudo‐acceleration spectra for earthquakes with moment magnitudes ( M ) between 5 and 7.6, and for distances up to 100km. The equations also include style‐of‐faulting and site class as explanatory variables. The predictions obtained from these new equations suggest that earlier European equations for spectral displacements underestimate the ordinates at longer periods as a result of severe filtering and the use of the spectral ordinates at periods too close to the filter cut‐off. The results also confirm that the period defining the start of the constant displacement plateau in the Eurocode 8 (EC8) spectrum is excessively short at 2s. The results not only show that the scaling factor defined in EC8 for estimating the spectral ordinates at damping ratios different from 5% of critical are a good general approximation, but also that this scaling varies with magnitude and distance (reflecting the influence of duration) and also displays a mild dependence on response period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Inverse Problem of Refraction Travel Times,Part I:Types of Geophysical Nonuniqueness Through Minimization     

Julian?IvanovEmail author  Richard D.?Miller  Jianghai?Xia  Don?Steeples  Choon B.?Park 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2005,162(3):447-459

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Reconstructing past glacier dynamics and erosion from glacial geomorphic evidence: Snowdon,North Wales     

Martin Sharp  Julian A. Dowdeswell  J. Campbell Gemmell 《第四纪科学杂志》1989,4(2):115-130

Bedrock surfaces exposed around Llyn Llydaw, North Wales demonstrate contrasting styles of erosion beneath a Late Devensian ice sheet and a Loch Lomond Stadial (LLS) valley glacier. Ice sheet erosion involved lee-side fracturing, surface fracture wear and abrasive wear, while LLS erosion was primarily by abrasive wear. Preservation of ice sheet erosional features indicates limited rates of erosion during the LLS. Analysis of the geometry and distribution of erosional markings suggests that the low erosional capacity of the LLS glacier was due to a low basal sliding velocity. This prevented the formation of lee-side cavities, reduced the debris flux over the bed and minimised particle-bed contact loads. Reconstructions of the mass balance and geometry of the LLS glacier indicate that most of its balance velocity could be achieved by internal deformation alone. A combination of low subglacial water pressures and an unusually rough substrate explain the low sliding velocities. High bed roughness is due to the absence of leeside cavities and a change in flow orientation between ice sheet and LLS times, which meant that the LLS glacier was in contact with roughness elements which were generated in cavities beneath the ice sheet.  相似文献   

A Study of Short Period P-wave Signals from Longshot   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

David Davies  Bruce R. Julian 《Geophysical Journal International》1972,29(2):185-202

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Institute Of British Geographers Annual Conference At Durham     

Julian Minghi 《The Professional geographer》1984,36(2):244-245

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Episodic tectonic plate reorganizations driven by mantle convection     

Scott D. King  Julian P. Lowman 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2002,203(1):83-91

Periods of relatively uniform plate motion were interrupted several times throughout the Cenozoic and Mesozoic by rapid plate reorganization events [R. Hey, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 88 (1977) 1404-1420; P.A. Rona, E.S. Richardson, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 40 (1978) 1-11; D.C. Engebretson, A. Cox, R.G. Gordon, Geol. Soc. Am. Spec. Pap. 206 (1985); R.G. Gordon, D.M. Jurdy, J. Geophys. Res. 91 (1986) 12389-12406; D.A. Clague, G.B. Dalrymple, US Geol. Surv. Prof. Pap. 1350 (1987) 5-54; J.M. Stock, P. Molnar, Nature 325 (1987) 495-499; C. Lithgow-Bertelloni, M.A. Richards, Geophys. Res. Lett. 22 (1995) 1317-1320; M.A. Richards, C. Lithgow-Bertelloni, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 137 (1996) 19-27; C. Lithgow-Bertelloni, M.A. Richards, Rev. Geophys. 36 (1998) 27-78]. It has been proposed that changes in plate boundary forces are responsible for these events [M.A. Richards, C. Lithgow-Bertelloni, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 137 (1996) 19-27; C. Lithgow-Bertelloni, M.A. Richards, Rev. Geophys. 36 (1998) 27-78]. We present an alternative hypothesis: convection-driven plate motions are intrinsically unstable due to a buoyant instability that develops as a result of the influence of plates on an internally heated mantle. This instability, which has not been described before, is responsible for episodic reorganizations of plate motion. Numerical mantle convection experiments demonstrate that high-Rayleigh number convection with internal heating and surface plates is sufficient to induce plate reorganization events, changes in plate boundary forces, or plate geometry, are not required.  相似文献   

下投式探空资料对Debby飓风路径预报影响的数值试验   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Qu Xiaobo  Julian Heming 《大气科学进展》2002,19(6):1029-1044

在飓风路径的数值预报中，对于初始场的要求很高，然而，由于初始资料的缺乏，经常导致路径预报的误差较大，尤其是当飓风处于远离陆地的海上时，这种误差更大，通过利用UM模式在Debby飓风活动期间，对下投式探空仪所获取探空资料，采用不同使用方案的三个时次共计10次数值试验的结论分析，给出一些有意义的 结论，即非实时资料对实时资料的有效补充，能够提高飓风路径预报精度，而在众多气象要素场中，风场和湿度场对飓风路径预报的影响更大。  相似文献