Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations,and an update on the latest model simulations     

Claudia Tebaldi  Julie M. Arblaster 《Climatic change》2014,122(3):459-471

We review the ideas behind the pattern scaling technique, and focus on its value and limitations given its use for impact assessment and within integrated assessment models. We present estimates of patterns for temperature and precipitation change from the latest transient simulations available from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), focusing on multi-model mean patterns, and characterizing the sources of variability of these patterns across models and scenarios. The patterns are compared to those obtained from the previous set of experiments, under CMIP3. We estimate the significance of the emerging differences between CMIP3 and CMIP5 results through a bootstrap exercise, while also taking into account the fundamental differences in scenario and model ensemble composition. All in all, the robustness of the geographical features in patterns of temperature and precipitation, when computed as multi-model means, is confirmed by this comparison. The intensity of the change (in both the warmer and cooler areas with respect to global temperature change, and the drier and wetter regions) is overall heightened per degree of global warming in the ensemble mean of the new simulations. The presence of stabilized scenarios in the new set of simulations allows investigation of the performance of the technique once the system has gotten close to equilibrium. Overall, the well established validity of the technique in approximating the forced signal of change under increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is confirmed.  相似文献   

Deciphering petrogenic processes using Pb isotope ratios from time-series samples at Bezymianny and Klyuchevskoy volcanoes,Central Kamchatka Depression     

Theresa?M.?KayzarEmail author  Bruce?K.?Nelson  Olivier?Bachmann  Ann?M.?Bauer  Pavel?E.?Izbekov 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,168(4):1067

The Klyuchevskoy group of volcanoes in the Kamchatka arc erupts compositionally diverse magmas (high-Mg basalts to dacites) over small spatial scales. New high-precision Pb isotope data from modern juvenile (1956–present) erupted products and hosted enclaves and xenoliths from Bezymianny volcano reveal that Bezymianny and Klyuchevskoy volcanoes, separated by only 9 km, undergo varying degrees of crustal processing through independent crustal columns. Lead isotope compositions of Klyuchevskoy basalts–basaltic andesites are more radiogenic than Bezymianny andesites (²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 37.850–37.903, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.468–15.480, and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.249–18.278 at Bezymianny; ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 37.907–37.949, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.478–15.487, and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.289–18.305 at Klyuchevskoy). A mid-crustal xenolith with a crystallization pressure of 5.2 ± 0.6 kbars inferred from two-pyroxene geobarometry and basaltic andesite enclaves from Bezymianny record less radiogenic Pb isotope compositions than their host magmas. Hence, assimilation of such lithologies in the middle or lower crust can explain the Pb isotope data in Bezymianny andesites, although a component of magma mixing with less radiogenic mafic recharge magmas and possible mantle heterogeneity cannot be excluded. Lead isotope compositions for the Klyuchevskoy Group are less radiogenic than other arc segments (Karymsky—Eastern Volcanic Zone; Shiveluch—Northern Central Kamchatka Depression), which indicate increased lower-crustal assimilation beneath the Klyuchevskoy Group. Decadal timescale Pb isotope variations at Klyuchevskoy demonstrate rapid changes in the magnitude of assimilation at a volcanic center. Lead isotope data coupled with trace element data reflect the influence of crustal processes on magma compositions even in thin mafic volcanic arcs.  相似文献   

A 7000-year record of environmental change,including early farming impact,based on lake-sediment geochemistry and pollen data from County Sligo,western Ireland     

Michael O'Connell  Beatrice Ghilardi  Liam Morrison 《Quaternary Research》2014

Detailed, chronologically tightly constrained, lake-sediment-based geochemical and pollen records have enabled local changes in soil erosion, woodland cover and composition, and prehistoric farming impact to be reconstructed in considerable detail. The profile opens shortly after 7800 BC when tall canopy trees were well-established and presumably in equilibrium with their environment. A distinct perturbation that involved an increase in pine and birch, a decrease in oak and a minor opening-up of the woodland is regarded as the local expression of the 8.2 ka climate anomaly. Lack of response in the geochemical erosional indicators is interpreted as evidence for drier conditions. A short-lived, over-compensation in climate recovery followed the 8.2 ka event. Neolithic farming impact is clearly expressed in both the pollen and geochemical data. Both datasets indicate that Neolithic impact was concentrated in the early Neolithic (3715–3440 BC). In the interval 3000–2700 BC there appears to have been a break in farming activity. The pollen data suggest substantially increased farming impact (both arable and pastoral) in the Bronze Age, with maximum farming and woodland clearances taking place in the late Bronze Age (1155–935 BC). These developments are poorly expressed in the geochemical record, possibly due to within-lake changes.  相似文献   

Can the unresolved X-ray background be explained by the emission from the optically-detected faint galaxies of the GOODS project?     

M. A. Worsley  A. C. Fabian  F. E. Bauer  D. M. Alexander  W. N. Brandt  B. D. Lehmer 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,368(4):1735-1741

The emission from individual X-ray sources in the Chandra Deep Fields and XMM – Newton Lockman Hole shows that almost half of the hard X-ray background above 6 keV is unresolved and implies the existence of a missing population of heavily obscured active galactic nuclei (AGN). We have stacked the 0.5–8 keV X-ray emission from optical sources in the Great Observatories Origins Deep Survey (GOODS; which covers the Chandra Deep Fields) to determine whether these galaxies, which are individually undetected in X-rays, are hosting the hypothesized missing AGN. In the 0.5–6 keV energy range, the stacked-source emission corresponds to the remaining 10–20 per cent of the total background – the fraction that has not been resolved by Chandra . The spectrum of the stacked emission is consistent with starburst activity or weak AGN emission. In the 6–8 keV band, we find that upper limits to the stacked X-ray intensity from the GOODS galaxies are consistent with the ∼40 per cent of the total background that remains unresolved, but further selection refinement is required to identify the X-ray sources and confirm their contribution.  相似文献   

Analyzing seismic imagery in the time–amplitude and time–frequency domains to determine fluid nature and migration pathways: A case study from the Queen Charlotte Basin,offshore British Columbia     

Mathieu J. Duchesne  E. Julie Halliday  J. Vaughn Barrie 《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2011,73(2):111-120

Combining time–amplitude and time–frequency information from seismic reflection data sets of different resolutions allows the analysis of anomalous reflections from very-shallow to great subsurface depths. Thus, it can enhance the imaging of subsurface features which have a frequency-dependent reflectivity such as gas. Analysing seismic data of different resolution in the time–amplitude and time–frequency domains is a powerful method to determine hydrocarbon migration pathways from deep reservoirs to the seafloor. This interpretation method has been applied to the formerly-glaciated offshore Queen Charlotte Basin hosting several seafloor pockmarks and mounds associated with the leakage of underlying hydrocarbon reservoirs. Low-frequency shadows observed in the time–frequency domain provide evidence of different resolutions that several anomalous reflection amplitudes may be attributed to the occurrence of gas. The seismic imagery shows that gas uses a fault to migrate from deep reservoirs included in Upper Mesozoic strata towards secondary reservoirs located along the fault plane into Neogene layers. Once gas reaches a porous cut-and-fill succession, migration changes from structurally- to stratigraphically-controlled before gas leaks through unconsolidated Quaternary sediments forming the shallow subsurface to eventually seep at the seafloor where pockmarks and carbonate mounds are formed.  相似文献   

Extreme value modelling of daily areal rainfall over Mediterranean catchments in a changing climate     

Yves Tramblay  Luc Neppel  Julie Carreau  Emilia Sanchez‐Gomez 《水文研究》2012,26(25):3934-3944

Heavy rainfall events during the fall season are causing extended damages in Mediterranean catchments. A peaks‐over‐threshold model is developed for the extreme daily areal rainfall occurrence and magnitude in fall over six catchments in Southern France. The main driver of the heavy rainfall events observed in this region is the humidity flux (FHUM) from the Mediterranean Sea. Reanalysis data are used to compute the daily FHUM during the period 1958–2008, to be included as a covariate in the model parameters. Results indicate that the introduction of FHUM as a covariate can improve the modelling of extreme areal precipitation. The seasonal average of FHUM can improve the modelling of the seasonal occurrences of heavy rainfall events, whereas daily FHUM values can improve the modelling of the events magnitudes. In addition, an ensemble of simulations produced by five different general circulation models are considered to compute FHUM in future climate with the emission scenario A1B and hence to evaluate the effect of climate change on the heavy rainfall distribution in the selected catchments. This ensemble of climate models allows the evaluation of the uncertainties in climate projections. By comparison to the reference period 1960–1990, all models project an amplification of the mean seasonal FHUM from the Mediterranean Sea for the projection period 2070–2099, on average by +22%. This increase in FHUM leads to an increase in the number of heavy rainfall events, from an average of 2.55 events during the fall season in present climate to 3.57 events projected for the period 2070–2099. However, the projected changes have limited effects on the magnitude of extreme events, with only a 5% increase in the median of the 100‐year quantiles. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The art of adaptation: Living with climate change in the rural American Southwest     

Julie Brugger  Michael Crimmins 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1830-1840

As adaptation has come to the forefront in climate change discourse, research, and policy, it is crucial to consider the effects of how we interpret the concept. This paper draws attention to the need for interpretations that foster policies and institutions with the breadth and flexibility to recognize and support a wide range of locally relevant adaptation strategies. Social scientists have argued that, in practice, the standard definition of adaptation tends to prioritize economic over other values and technical over social responses, draw attention away from underlying causes of vulnerability and from the broader context in which adaptive responses take place, and exclude discussions of inequality, justice, and transformation. In this paper, we discuss an alternate understanding of adaptation, which we label “living with climate change,” that emerged from an ethnographic study of how rural residents of the U.S. Southwest understand, respond to, and plan for weather and climate in their daily lives, and we consider how it might inform efforts to develop a more comprehensive definition. The discussion brings into focus several underlying features of this lay conception of adaptation, which are crucial for understanding how adaptation actually unfolds on the ground: an ontology based on nature–society mutuality; an epistemology based on situated knowledge; practice based on performatively adjusting human activities to a dynamic biophysical and social environment; and a placed-based system of values. We suggest that these features help point the way toward a more comprehensive understanding of climate change adaptation, and one more fully informed by the understanding that we are living in the Anthropocene.  相似文献   

The micrometers of the Carlsberg Automatic Meridian Circle     

L. Helmer  C. Fabricius  L. V. Morrison 《Experimental Astronomy》1991,2(2):85-99

A new moving slit star micrometer has been developed for the 18 cm Carlsberg Automatic Meridian Circle on La Palma. A zenith mean error of 0 _inf. ^sup 15 for one transit and a limiting magnitude of 14 _inf. ^supm 8 is obtained. It has a high efficiency and is well suited for improving the FK5 system and extending it to much fainter stars. A new collimator alignment micrometer and the necessary calibrations are also described.  相似文献   

Variation in azimuth of the Carlsberg Automatic Meridian Circle     

L V Morrison  C Fabricius 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1991,177(1-2):263-267

The variation in azimuth of the Carlsberg Automatic Meridian Circle has been investigated using azimuth marks, pairs of circumpolar stars and three polarissimae. Preliminary results from these three methods are intercompared and some conclusions drawn about their reliability and future use.  相似文献   

The Hubble Deep Field-North SCUBA Super-map – IV. Characterizing submillimetre galaxies using deep Spitzer imaging     

Alexandra Pope  Douglas Scott  Mark Dickinson  Ranga-Ram Chary  Glenn Morrison  Colin Borys  Anna Sajina  David M. Alexander  Emanuele Daddi †  David Frayer  Emily MacDonald  Daniel Stern 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,370(3):1185-1207

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