Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century     

Julien Boé  Alex Hall  Xin Qu 《Climatic change》2010,99(3-4):637-645

We show that intermodel variations in the anthropogenically-forced evolution of September sea ice extent (SSIE) in the Arctic stem mainly from two factors: the baseline climatological sea ice thickness (SIT) distribution, and the local climate feedback parameter. The roles of these two factors evolve over the course of the twenty-first century. The SIT distribution is the most important factor in current trends and those of coming decades, accounting for roughly half the intermodel variations in SSIE trends. Then, its role progressively decreases, so that around the middle of the twenty-first century the local climate feedback parameter becomes the dominant factor. Through this analysis, we identify the investments in improved simulation of Arctic climate necessary to reduce uncertainties both in projections of sea ice loss over the coming decades and in the ultimate fate of the ice pack.  相似文献   

A Parameterization of Dry Thermals and Shallow Cumuli for Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Julien Pergaud  Valéry Masson  Sylvie Malardel  Fleur Couvreux 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2009,132(1):83-106

For numerical weather prediction models and models resolving deep convection, shallow convective ascents are subgrid processes that are not parameterized by classical local turbulent schemes. The mass flux formulation of convective mixing is now largely accepted as an efficient approach for parameterizing the contribution of larger plumes in convective dry and cloudy boundary layers. We propose a new formulation of the EDMF scheme (for Eddy Diffusivity\Mass Flux) based on a single updraft that improves the representation of dry thermals and shallow convective clouds and conserves a correct representation of stratocumulus in mesoscale models. The definition of entrainment and detrainment in the dry part of the updraft is original, and is specified as proportional to the ratio of buoyancy to vertical velocity. In the cloudy part of the updraft, the classical buoyancy sorting approach is chosen. The main closure of the scheme is based on the mass flux near the surface, which is proportional to the sub-cloud layer convective velocity scale w _*. The link with the prognostic grid-scale cloud content and cloud cover and the projection on the non- conservative variables is processed by the cloud scheme. The validation of this new formulation using large-eddy simulations focused on showing the robustness of the scheme to represent three different boundary layer regimes. For dry convective cases, this parameterization enables a correct representation of the countergradient zone where the mass flux part represents the top entrainment (IHOP case). It can also handle the diurnal cycle of boundary-layer cumulus clouds (EUROCS\ARM) and conserve a realistic evolution of stratocumulus (EUROCS\FIRE).  相似文献   

Luciola hypertelescope space observatory: versatile, upgradable high-resolution imaging, from stars to deep-field cosmology     

Antoine Labeyrie  Hervé Le Coroller  Julien Dejonghe  Olivier Lardière  Claude Aime  Kjetil Dohlen  Denis Mourard  Richard Lyon  Kenneth G. Carpenter 《Experimental Astronomy》2009,23(1):463-490

Luciola is a large (1 km) “multi-aperture densified-pupil imaging interferometer”, or “hypertelescope” employing many small apertures, rather than a few large ones, for obtaining direct snapshot images with a high information content. A diluted collector mirror, deployed in space as a flotilla of small mirrors, focuses a sky image which is exploited by several beam-combiner spaceships. Each contains a “pupil densifier” micro-lens array to avoid the diffractive spread and image attenuation caused by the small sub-apertures. The elucidation of hypertelescope imaging properties during the last decade has shown that many small apertures tend to be far more efficient, regarding the science yield, than a few large ones providing a comparable collecting area. For similar underlying physical reasons, radio-astronomy has also evolved in the direction of many-antenna systems such as the proposed Low Frequency Array having “hundreds of thousands of individual receivers”. With its high limiting magnitude, reaching the m _v?=?30 limit of HST when 100 collectors of 25 cm will match its collecting area, high-resolution direct imaging in multiple channels, broad spectral coverage from the 1,200 Å ultra-violet to the 20 μm infra-red, apodization, coronagraphic and spectroscopic capabilities, the proposed hypertelescope observatory addresses very broad and innovative science covering different areas of ESA’s Cosmic Vision program. In the initial phase, a focal spacecraft covering the UV to near IR spectral range of EMCCD photon-counting cameras (currently 200 to 1,000 nm), will image details on the surface of many stars, as well as their environment, including multiple stars and clusters. Spectra will be obtained for each resel. It will also image neutron star, black-hole and micro-quasar candidates, as well as active galactic nuclei, quasars, gravitational lenses, and other Cosmic Vision targets observable with the initial modest crowding limit. With subsequent upgrade missions, the spectral coverage can be extended from 120 nm to 20 μm, using four detectors carried by two to four focal spacecraft. The number of collector mirrors in the flotilla can also be increased from 12 to 100 and possibly 1,000. The imaging and spectroscopy of habitable exoplanets in the mid infra-red then becomes feasible once the collecting area reaches 6 m², using a specialized mid infra-red focal spacecraft. Calculations (Boccaletti et al., Icarus 145, 628–636, 2000) have shown that hypertelescope coronagraphy has unequalled sensitivity for detecting, at mid infra-red wavelengths, faint exoplanets within the exo-zodiacal glare. Later upgrades will enable the more difficult imaging and spectroscopy of these faint objects at visible wavelengths, using refined techniques of adaptive coronagraphy (Labeyrie and Le Coroller 2004). Together, the infra-red and visible spectral data carry rich information on the possible presence of life. The close environment of the central black-hole in the Milky Way will be imageable with unprecedented detail in the near infra-red. Cosmological imaging of remote galaxies at the limit of the known universe is also expected, from the ultra-violet to the near infra-red, following the first upgrade, and with greatly increasing sensitivity through successive upgrades. These areas will indeed greatly benefit from the upgrades, in terms of dynamic range, limiting complexity of the objects to be imaged, size of the elementary “Direct Imaging Field”, and limiting magnitude, approaching that of an 8-m space telescope when 1,000 apertures of 25 cm are installed. Similar gains will occur for addressing fundamental problems in physics and cosmology, particularly when observing neutron stars and black holes, single or binary, including the giant black holes, with accretion disks and jets, in active galactic nuclei beyond the Milky Way. Gravitational lensing and micro-lensing patterns, including time-variable patterns and perhaps millisecond lensing flashes which may be beamed by diffraction from sub-stellar masses at sub-parsec distances (Labeyrie, Astron Astrophys 284, 689, 1994), will also be observable initially in the favourable cases, and upgrades will greatly improve the number of observable objects. The observability of gravitational waves emitted by binary lensing masses, in the form of modulated lensing patterns, is a debated issue (Ragazzoni et al., MNRAS 345, 100–110, 2003) but will also become addressable observationally. The technology readiness of Luciola approaches levels where low-orbit testing and stepwise implementation will become feasible in the 2015–2025 time frame. For the following decades beyond 2020, once accurate formation flying techniques will be mastered, much larger hypertelescopes such as the proposed 100 km Exo-Earth Imager and the 100,000 km Neutron Star Imager should also become feasible. Luciola is therefore also seen as a precursor toward such very powerful instruments.  相似文献   

Diffusion of Ar in muscovite     

T. Mark Harrison  Julien Célérier  Joerg Hermann 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2009,73(4):1039-1051

Hydrothermal treatment of closely sized muscovite aggregates in a piston-cylinder apparatus induced ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss that is revealed in ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar step heating spectra. Age spectra and Arrhenius data, however, differ from that expected from a single diffusion length scale. A numerical model of episodic loss assuming the presence of multiple diffusion domains yields excellent fits between synthetic and actual degassing spectra. We used this model to isolate ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss from the grains that remained intact during hydrothermal treatment at 10 kbar permitting calculation of diffusion coefficients in the temperature range 730-600 °C. Diffusion data generated in this manner yield an activation energy (E) of 63 ± 7 kcal/mol and frequency factor (D_o) of 2.3  cm²/s. Experiments at 20 kbar yield diffusivities lower by about an order of magnitude and correspond to an activation volume of ∼14 cm³/mol. Together, these parameters predict substantially greater retentivity of Ar in muscovite than previously assumed and correspond to a closure temperature (T_c) of 425 °C for a 100 μm radius grain cooling at 10 °C/Ma at 10 kbar (T_c = 405 °C at 5 kbar. Age and log (r/r_o) spectra for the run products show strong correlations indicating that muscovites can retain Ar diffusion boundaries and mechanisms that define their natural retentivity during vacuum step heating. This may permit the application of high resolution, continuous ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar thermochronology to low grade, regionally metamorphosed terranes.  相似文献   

Microstructure modifications of silicates induced by the collection in aerogel: Experimental approach and comparison with Stardust results     

Julien STODOLNA  Damien JACOB  Hugues LEROUX  Mark J. BURCHELL 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2012,47(4):696-707

Abstract– Particles from comet 81P/Wild 2 were captured with silica aerogel during the flyby Stardust mission. A significant part of the collection was damaged during the impact at hypervelocity in the aerogel. In this study, we conducted impact experiments into aerogel of olivine and pyroxene powder using a light‐gas gun in similar conditions as that of the comet Wild 2 particles collection. The shot samples were investigated using transmission electron microscopy to characterize their microstructure. Both olivine and pyroxene samples show evidence of thermal alteration due to friction with the aerogel. All the grains have rounded edges after collection, whereas their shape was angular in the initial shot powder set. This is probably associated with mass loss of particles. The rims of the grains are clearly melted and mixed with aerogel. The core of olivine grains is fairly well preserved, but some grains contain dislocations in glide configuration. We interpret these dislocations as generated by the thermal stresses that have emerged due to the high temperature gradients between the core and the rim of the grains. Most of the pyroxene grains have been fully melted. Their high silica concentration reflects a strong impregnation with melted aerogel. The preferential melting of pyroxene compared with olivine is due to a difference in melting temperatures of 300°. This melting point difference probably induces a bias in the measurements of the ratio olivine/pyroxene in the Wild 2 comet. The proportion of pyroxene was probably higher on Wild 2 than expected from the samples collected into aerogel.  相似文献   

Planetary perturbations on Mercury’s libration in longitude     

Julien Dufey  Anne Lemaître  Nicolas Rambaux 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2008,101(1-2):141-157

Two space missions dedicated to Mercury (MESSENGER and BepiColombo) aim at understanding its rotation and confirming the existence of a liquid core. This double challenge requires much more accurate models for the spin-orbit resonant rotation of Mercury. The purpose of this paper is to introduce planetary perturbations on Mercury’s rotation using an analytical method and to analyse the influence of the perturbations on the libration in longitude. Applying a perturbation theory based on the Lie triangle, we were able to re-introduce short periodic terms into the averaged Hamiltonian and to compute the evolution of the rotational variables. The perturbations on Mercury’s forced libration in longitude mainly come from the orbital motion of Mercury (with an amplitude around 41 arcsec that depends on the momenta of inertia). It is completed by various effects from Jupiter (11.86 and 5.93 year-periods), Venus (with a 5.66 year-period), Saturn (14.73 year-period), and the Earth (6.58 year-period). The amplitudes of the oscillations due to Jupiter and Venus are approximately 33% and 10% of those from the orbital motion of Mercury and the amplitudes of the oscillations due to Saturn and the Earth are approximately 3% and 2%. We compare the analytical results with the solution obtained from the spin-orbit numerical model SONYR.  相似文献   

Comprehensive study of the drying behavior of Boom clay: Experimental investigation and numerical modeling          下载免费PDF全文

Julien Hubert  Erwan Plougonven  Noémie Prime  Angélique Léonard  Frédéric Collin 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(2):211-230

This paper presents a thermo‐hydro‐mechanical framework to model the drying behavior of Boom clay. First, the experimental campaign conducted Noémie Prime is briefly presented because it is used to validate the model. The data acquisition and processing is emphasized because of the use of X‐ray microtomography to be able to more accurately compare experimental and numerical strain fields. The different submodels are introduced. Numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the capability of the proposed model to reproduce the observed behavior. Finally, a comprehensive sensitivity study on several key model parameters associated with the water retention curve, and the permeability of the medium, is performed to get a better understanding of the physics behind the coupled model.  相似文献   

Combining low-carbon economic development and oil exploration in Brazil? An energy–economy assessment     

Julien Lefèvre  William Wills  Jean-Charles Hourcade 《Climate Policy》2018,18(10):1286-1295

Brazil's nationally determined contribution (NDC) pledged under the Paris Agreement has marked a new stage in its climate policy towards strengthening low-carbon economic development beyond the recent drastic cuts in emissions from deforestation. Brazil especially means to limit oil consumption driven by future economic growth and to increase energy efficiency and biofuel use in the transport sector. On the other hand, Brazil still aspires to become a major petroleum province given its huge reserves of ‘pre-salt’ oil. This article aims to clarify under what conditions low-carbon economic development and oil exploration can possibly be combined in Brazil and what would be the energy system, environmental and macroeconomic implications of enabling policies for doing so. To address these questions, an energy–economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Brazilian economy is used to simulate alternative scenarios up to 2030. The results first show that implementing the most recent energy plans, which take into account the new economic reality in Brazil, should lead to over 20% lower domestic CO₂ emissions in 2030 than the indicative NDC target, and to the export of the bulk of newfound crude oil. Second, with the same level of oil production, deeper domestic decarbonization, triggered by additional carbon pricing and sustainable efficiency measures, appears achievable with very small gross domestic product (GDP) loss and maximum oil exports, while being aligned with a 2°C emission pathway. However, (i) extra oil exports may induce net additional emissions outside Brazil and be seen as a perverse incentive and (ii) the economic growth strategy based on high oil exports may hinder the necessary diversification of the Brazilian economy.

Key policy insights

• Low-carbon development goals will strongly interact with oil policy in Brazil.

• The 2030 NDC target should be easy to achieve considering the new economic reality in Brazil.

• Deeper domestic decarbonization is achievable with very limited GDP loss and significant oil exports, while being aligned with a 2°C emission pathway.

• A broad strategic vision is needed to reconcile climate policy, energy policy and other economic development objectives.

  相似文献   

Limited effect of the Quaternary's largest super-eruption (Toba) on land mammals from Southeast Asia     

Julien Louys   《Quaternary Science Reviews》2007,26(25-28):3108-3117

The effect of the Toba super-eruption at 74 kyr on the mammals of Southeast Asia is examined. Although few Late Pleistocene sites from Southeast Asia have been described, an analysis of those which pre- and post-date Toba reveals relatively few species became extinct following the eruption. It is suggested that species survived in refugia immediately following the eruption, and that they repopulated vast areas following a probable short period (i.e. decades to century) of environmental devastation. This study suggests that mammals are more robust at coping with catastrophic events than previously acknowledged, and questions the perceived human monopoly in overcoming ecological adversity.  相似文献   

Simulating Stable Isotope Ratios in Plumes of Groundwater Pollutants with BIOSCREEN‐AT‐ISO          下载免费PDF全文

Patrick Höhener  Zhi M. Li  Maxime Julien  Pierrick Nun  Richard J. Robins  Gérald S. Remaud 《Ground water》2017,55(2):261-267

BIOSCREEN is a well‐known simple tool for evaluating the transport of dissolved contaminants in groundwater, ideal for rapid screening and teaching. This work extends the BIOSCREEN model for the calculation of stable isotope ratios in contaminants. A three‐dimensional exact solution of the reactive transport from a patch source, accounting for fractionation by first‐order decay and/or sorption, is used. The results match those from a previously published isotope model but are much simpler to obtain. Two different isotopes may be computed, and dual isotope plots can be viewed. The dual isotope assessment is a rapidly emerging new approach for identifying process mechanisms in aquifers. Furthermore, deviations of isotope ratios at specific reactive positions with respect to “bulk” ratios in the whole compound can be simulated. This model is named BIOSCREEN‐AT‐ISO and will be downloadable from the journal homepage.  相似文献