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Key limitations of integrated assessment models (IAMs) are their highly stylized and aggregated representation of climate damages and associated economic responses, as well as the omission of specific investments related to climate change adaptation. This paper proposes a framework for modeling climate impacts and adaptation that clarifies the relevant research issues and provides a template for making improvements. We identify five desirable characteristics of an ideal integrated assessment modeling platform, which we elaborate into a conceptual model that distinguishes three different classes of adaptation-related activities. Based on these elements we specify an impacts- and adaptation-centric IAM, whose optimality conditions are used to highlight the types of functional relationships necessary for realistic representations of adaptation-related decisions, the specific mechanisms by which these responses can be incorporated into IAMs, and the ways in which the inclusion of adaptation is likely to affect the simulations’ results.  相似文献   
74.
Variations in the abundance and distribution of pelagic tuna populations have been associated with large-scale climate indices such as the Southern Oscillation Index in the Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Atlantic Ocean. Similarly to the Pacific and Atlantic, variability in the distribution and catch rates of tuna species have also been observed in association with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a basin-scale pattern of sea surface and subsurface temperatures that affect climate in the Indian Ocean. The environmental processes associated with the IOD that drive variability in tuna populations, however, are largely unexplored. To better understand these processes, we investigated longline catch rates of yellowfin tuna and their distributions in the western Indian Ocean in relation to IOD events, sea surface water temperatures (SST) and estimates of net primary productivity (NPP). Catch per unit effort (CPUE) was observed to be negatively correlated to the IOD with a periodicity centred around 4 years. During positive IOD events, SSTs were relatively higher, NPP was lower, CPUE decreased and catch distributions were restricted to the northern and western margins of the western Indian Ocean. During negative IOD events, lower SSTs and higher NPP were associated with increasing CPUE, particularly in the Arabian Sea and seas surrounding Madagascar, and catches expanded into central regions of the western Indian Ocean. These findings provide preliminary insights into some of the key environmental features driving the distribution of yellowfin tuna in the western Indian Ocean and associated variability in fisheries catches.  相似文献   
75.
As the impacts from anthropogenic climate change are increasing globally, people are experiencing dramatic shifts in weather, temperature, wildlife and vegetation patterns, and water and food quality and availability. These changes impact human health and well-being, and resultantly, climate change has been identified as the biggest global health threat of the 21st Century. Recently, research is beginning to indicate that changes in climate, and the subsequent disruption to the social, economic, and environmental determinants of health, may cause increased incidences and prevalence of mental health issues, emotional responses, and large-scale sociopsychological changes. Through a multi-year, community-led, exploratory case study conducted in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Labrador, Canada, this research qualitatively explores the impacts of climate change on mental health and well-being in an Inuit context. Drawing from 67 in-depth interviews conducted between January 2010 and October 2010 with community members and local and regional health professionals, participants reported that changes in weather, snow and ice stability and extent, and wildlife and vegetation patterns attributed to climate change were negatively impacting mental health and well-being due to disruptions in land-based activities and a loss of place-based solace and cultural identity. Participants reported that changes in climate and environment increased family stress, enhanced the possibility of increased drug and alcohol usage, amplified previous traumas and mental health stressors, and were implicated in increased potential for suicide ideation. While a preliminary case study, these exploratory findings indicate that climate change is becoming an additional mental health stressor for resource-dependent communities and provide a baseline for further research.  相似文献   
76.
For most people, the direct and personally observable signals of climate change should be difficult to detect amid the variability of everyday weather. Yet, previous research has shown that some people believe they have personally experienced global warming. Through four related studies, our paper sheds light on what signals of global warming some people believe they are detecting, why, and whether or not it matters. These studies were conducted using population survey and climatic data from a single county in Michigan. Study 1 found that 27% of the county's adult residents felt that they had personally experienced global warming. Study 2 – based on content analysis of people's open-ended responses – found that the most frequently described personal experiences of global warming were changes in seasons (36%), weather (25%), lake levels (24%), animals and plants (20%), and snowfall (19%). Study 3 – based on NOAA climatic data – found that most, but not all, of these detected signals are borne out in the climatic record. Study 4 – using the survey data – found that personal experience of global warming matters in that it predicts perceptions of local risk of global warming, controlling for demographics, political affiliation, and cultural beliefs about national policy outcomes. We conclude that perceived personal experience of global warming appears to heighten people's perception of the risks, likely through some combination of direct experience, vicarious experience (e.g., news media stories), and social construction.  相似文献   
77.
We present Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph longslit spectroscopy of the isolated S0 galaxy NGC 3115. We have determined kinematical data and Lick/IDS absorption line-strength indices for the major axis out to around 9 kpc and for the minor axis out to around 5 kpc (around 2R e ). Using stellar population models which include the effects of variable [α/Fe] ratios, we derive metallicities, abundance ratios and ages for the stellar population of NGC 3115. We find that [α/Fe] remains fairly constant with increasing radius at around  [α/Fe]= 0.17  for the major axis but increases rapidly for the minor axis to around  [α/Fe]= 0.3  . We also find that to first order, this behaviour can be explained by a simple spheroid + disc model, where the spheroid has  [α/Fe]= 0.3  and the disc shows close to solar abundance ratios. The disc also appears considerably younger than the spheroid, having an age of around 6 Gyr compared to 12 Gyr for the spheroid. We compare these results to those previously presented for the globular cluster system of NGC 3115.  相似文献   
78.
We obtained high-resolution (λλ∼25,000) spectra of Comet C/1999 H1 (Lee) on UT 1999 August 19.6 and 21.6 using the cross-dispersed Near InfraRed SPECtrometer (NIRSPEC) at the Keck Observatory atop Mauna Kea, HI. Here we present spectra of Comet Lee between 2.874 and 3.701 μm (3479-2702 cm−1) representing the most complete high-resolution infrared survey of a comet to date in this wavelength region. Using published line lists and laboratory spectra we have identified 444 of the 545 distinct emission features present in these spectra. We have tabulated the rest frequencies, assignments, relative intensities, and signal-to-noise ratios of all detected emissions. In addition to gaining insights into the chemistry of Comet Lee, this survey provides a valuable tool for planning future high-resolution infrared observations of comets and other astronomical targets, and for retrospective comparison to existing high-resolution infrared datasets.  相似文献   
79.
In light of recent reductions in sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) emissions mandated by Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, temporal trends and trend coherence in precipitation (1984–2001 and 1992–2001) and surface water chemistry (1992–2001) were determined in two of the most acid‐sensitive regions of North America, i.e. the Catskill and Adirondack Mountains of New York. Precipitation chemistry data from six sites located near these regions showed decreasing sulphate (SO42?), nitrate (NO3?), and base cation (CB) concentrations and increasing pH during 1984–2001, but few significant trends during 1992–2001. Data from five Catskill streams and 12 Adirondack lakes showed decreasing trends in SO42? concentrations at all sites, and decreasing trends in NO3?, CB, and H+ concentrations and increasing trends in dissolved organic carbon at most sites. In contrast, acid‐neutralizing capacity (ANC) increased significantly at only about half the Adirondack lakes and in one of the Catskill streams. Flow correction prior to trend analysis did not change any trend directions and had little effect on SO42? trends, but it caused several significant non‐flow‐corrected trends in NO3? and ANC to become non‐significant, suggesting that trend results for flow‐sensitive constituents are affected by flow‐related climate variation. SO42? concentrations showed high temporal coherence in precipitation, surface waters, and in precipitation–surface water comparisons, reflecting a strong link between S emissions, precipitation SO42? concentrations, and the processes that affect S cycling within these regions. NO3? and H+ concentrations and ANC generally showed weak coherence, especially in surface waters and in precipitation–surface water comparisons, indicating that variation in local‐scale processes driven by factors such as climate are affecting trends in acid–base chemistry in these two regions. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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