Space–time ETAS models and an improved extension     

Yosihiko Ogata  Jiancang Zhuang 《Tectonophysics》2006,413(1-2):13

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Seismicity anomaly scenario prior to the major recurrent earthquakes off the east coast of Miyagi Prefecture, northern Japan     

Yosihiko Ogata   《Tectonophysics》2006,424(3-4):291

This paper is concerned with the intermediate-term prediction of the forthcoming M7.4–8.2 earthquake on the plate boundary, off the east coast of Miyagi Prefecture, northern Japan, which has the highest occurrence probability among the long-term forecasted events announced to the public. Seismicity and aftershocks in the regions of stress-shadow preceding each of the previous ruptures in 1936 and 1978 shows significantly lower activity than the predicted rate by the ETAS model (the relative quiescence) during some years preceding the events, whereas the seismicity is normal or even activated in the regions of neutral or increasing Coulomb failure stress (CFS), which leads to the scenario based on the likely precursory slip within or near the source. Assuming such a scenario, a number of sequences of earthquakes or aftershocks during 1979–2004 from various regions in northern Japan are selected to analyze them by fitting the ETAS model. Then the results are examined in relation to the CFS increments in the considered regions using the source models of the 1793, 1936 and 1978 interplate ruptures, and additionally the source model of recently occurred 2003 Miyagi-Ken-Oki intra-slab earthquake of M7.1. It is likely that the results of the normal activity and relative quiescence in the respective activities are due to the preslip of the intra-slab earthquake rather than the preslip of the expected rupture on the plate boundary.  相似文献   

A new high-pressure and high-temperature polymorph of FeS     

Hiroaki Ohfuji  Nagayoshi Sata  Hisao Kobayashi  Yasuo Ohishi  Kei Hirose  Tetsuo Irifune 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2007,34(5):335-343

A new polymorph of FeS has been observed at pressures above 30 GPa at 1,300 K by in situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction measurements in a laser-heated diamond anvil cell. It is stable up to, at least, 170 GPa at 1,300 K. The new phase (here called FeS VI) has an orthorhombic unit cell with lattice parameters a = 4.8322 (17) Å, b = 3.0321 (6) Å, and c = 5.0209 (8) Å at 85 GPa and 300 K. Its topological framework is based on the NiAs-type structure as is the case for the other reported polymorphs (FeS I-V). The unit cell of FeS VI is, however, more distorted (contracted) along the [010] direction of the original NiAs-type cell. For example, the c/b axial ratio is ～1.66 at 85 GPa and 300 K, which is considerably smaller than that of orthorhombic FeS II (～1.72) and NiAs-type hexagonal FeS V (=√3 ≈ 1.73). The phase boundary between FeS IV and VI is expected to be located around 30 GPa at 1,300 K. The phase transition is accompanied by gradual and continuous changes in volume and axial ratios and may be second order. At room temperature, FeS VI becomes stable over FeS III at pressures above 36 GPa. It is, therefore, suggested that the phase boundary of FeS III–VI and/or FeS IV–VI has negative pressure dependence.  相似文献   

Determination of post-perovskite phase transition boundary up to 4400 K and implications for thermal structure in D″ layer     

Shigehiko Tateno  Kei Hirose  Nagayoshi Sata  Yasuo Ohishi 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2009,277(1-2):130-136

We have determined the post-perovskite phase transition boundary in MgSiO₃ in a wide temperature range from 1640 to 4380 K at 119–171 GPa on the basis of synchrotron X-ray diffraction measurements in-situ at high-pressure and -temperature in a laser-heated diamond-anvil cell (LHDAC). The results show a considerably high positive Clapeyron slope of + 13.3 ± 1.0 MPa/K and a transition temperature of about 3520 ± 70 K at the core–mantle boundary (CMB) pressure. The thermal structure in D″ layer can be tightly constrained from precisely determined post-perovskite phase transition boundary and the depths of paired seismic discontinuities. These suggest that temperature at the CMB may be around 3700 K, somewhat lower than previously thought. A minimum bound on the global heat flow from the core is estimated to be 6.6 ± 0.5 TW.  相似文献   

Does heavy oil pollution induce bacterial diseases in Japanese flounder Paralichthys olivaceus?     

Song JY  Nakayama K  Murakami Y  Jung SJ  Oh MJ  Matsuoka S  Kawakami H  Kitamura S 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,57(6-12):889-894

As basic research for the effect of heavy oil on the fish immune system, in this study, the number of leukocyte was counted in Japanese flounder Paralichthys olivaceus, after exposure to heavy oil at a concentration of 30 g/8L for 3 days. To compare the numbers of bacteria in the skin mucus between oil-exposed and control fish, viable bacteria were enumerated by counting colony forming unit (CFU). Compared with 5.79+/-1.88 x 10(7)leukocytes/mL in the controls, the exposed fish demonstrated higher counts, averaging 1.45+/-0.45 x 10(8)cells/mL. The bacterial numbers of control fish were 4.27+/-3.68 x 10(4)CFU/g, whereas they were 4.58+/-1.63 x 10(5)CFU/g in the exposed fish. The results suggest that immune suppression of the fish occurred due to heavy oil stressor, and bacteria could invade in the mucus, resulting in the increasing leukocyte number to prevent infectious disease.  相似文献   

利用统计地震模型从地震活动参数中获得流体信号     

Yosihiko Ogata  张彬  杨选辉 《国际地震动态》2006,(7):120-130

根据众所周知的库伦破裂准则,应力或孔隙压力的变化都会导致地震破裂。余震活动一般认为是地震应力变化引起的,它服从大森定律。而地震群则认为是通过地下流体侵入岩层所致。应力触发可以通过在地壳单独构建三维弹力应变模型分析,而地震引起的地下流体流动情况必须通过空隙压力变化和地震之间相互作用应力场的改变这样复杂的地震活动图像研究。我们看到ETAS模型是从复杂地震活动图像获得最初流体信号的一种适当工具。我们主要分析2000年发生在欧洲中部的波西米亚西北部Vogtland地区的大地震群。通过拟合随机的传染型余震序列模型(ETAS)我们发现应力触发在创建观测地震活动图像和解释观测事件破碎时间分布时起支配性作用。外力在直接触发引起地震活动中起到的作用是很有限的,这种外力被认为是由于流体入侵导致孔隙压力变化而产生的。然而时间上的反褶积表明显著的流体信号源于地震群。这些结果已被我们的仿真模型模拟研究证实,在这个研究中,流体侵入和应力在三维弹性半空间中沿断层面转移时触发地震。基于ETAS模型的反褶积过程能够揭示地下孔隙压力变化。  相似文献   

The linear stability of the post-Newtonian triangular equilibrium in the three-body problem     

Kei Yamada  Takuya Tsuchiya 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2017,129(4):487-507

Continuing a work initiated in an earlier publication (Yamada et al. in Phys Rev D 91:124016, 2015), we reexamine the linear stability of the triangular solution in the relativistic three-body problem for general masses by the standard linear algebraic analysis. In this paper, we start with the Einstein–Infeld–Hoffmann form of equations of motion for N-body systems in the uniformly rotating frame. As an extension of the previous work, we consider general perturbations to the equilibrium, i.e., we take account of perturbations orthogonal to the orbital plane, as well as perturbations lying on it. It is found that the orthogonal perturbations depend on each other by the first post-Newtonian (1PN) three-body interactions, though these are independent of the lying ones likewise the Newtonian case. We also show that the orthogonal perturbations do not affect the condition of stability. This is because these do not grow with time, but always precess with two frequency modes, namely, the same with the orbital frequency and the slightly different one due to the 1PN effect. The condition of stability, which is identical to that obtained by the previous work (Yamada et al. 2015) and is valid for the general perturbations, is obtained from the lying perturbations.  相似文献   

The stability and origin of sodicgedrite in ultrahigh-temperature Mg-Al granulites: a case study from the Gondwana suture in southern India     

Tomohito Kanazawa  Toshiaki Tsunogae  Kei Sato  M. Santosh 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2009,157(1):95-110

Mg-Al-rich rocks from the Palghat-Cauvery Shear Zone System (PCSZ) within the Gondwana suture zone in southern India contain sodicgedrite as one of the prograde to peak phases, stable during T = 900–990°C ultrahigh-temperature metamorphism. Gedrite in these samples is Mg-rich (Mg/[Fe + Mg] = X _Mg = 0.69–0.80) and shows wide variation in Na₂O content (1.4–2.3 wt.%, Na^A = 0.33–0.61 pfu). Gedrite adjacent to kyanite pseudomorph is in part mantled by garnet and cordierite. The gedrite proximal to garnet shows an increase in Na^A and Al^IV from the core (Na^A = 0.40–0.51 pfu, Al^IV = 1.6–1.9 pfu) to the rim (Na^A = 0.49–0.61 pfu, Al^IV = 2.0–2.2 pfu), suggesting the progress of the following dehydration reaction: Ged + Ky → Na-Ged + Grt + Crd + H₂O. This reaction suggests that, as the reactants broke down during the prograde stage, the remaining gedrite became enriched in Na to form sodicgedrite, which is regarded as a unique feature of high-grade rocks with Mg-Al-rich and K–Si-poor bulk chemistry. We carried out high-P-T experimental studies on natural sodicgedrite and the results indicate that gedrite and melt are stable phases at 12 kbar and 1,000°C. However, the product gedrite is Na-poor with only <0.13 wt.% Na₂O (Na^A = 0.015–0.034 pfu). In contrast, the matrix glass contains up to 8.5 wt.% Na₂O, suggesting that, with the progressive melting of the starting material, Na was partitioned into the melt rather than gedrite. The results therefore imply that the occurrence of sodicgedrite in the UHT rocks of the PCSZ is probably due to the low H₂O activity during peak P-T conditions that restricted extensive partial melting in these rocks, leaving Na partitioned into the solid phase (gedrite). The occurrence of abundant primary CO₂-rich fluid inclusions in this rock, which possibly infiltrated along the collisional suture during the final amalgamation of the Gondwana supercontinent, strengthens the inference of low water activity.  相似文献   

Long-range transport of particulate polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons at Cape Hedo remote island site in the East China Sea between 2005 and 2008     

Kei Sato  Hong Li  Yurie Tanaka  Shiho Ogawa  Yuka Iwasaki  Akinori Takami  Shiro Hatakeyama 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2008,61(3):243-257

Particle-associated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in outflow from East Asia were observed at Cape Hedo, Okinawa, Japan between 2005 and 2008. The filter samples of the total suspended particles were analyzed by means of gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The total concentration of fourteen 3–7-ring PAHs was 0.01–24 ng m^?3 (average 1.6 ng m^?3). The average PAH concentration increased in the winter-spring season and decreased in the summer-fall season. The average benzo(a)pyrene to benzo(e)pyrene ratio was 0.49 in the winter-spring season and was lower than the literature values for East Asian cities in the same season. This result shows that aging of organic aerosol particles proceeds during long-range transport from East Asia. In the Asian Pacific region, these pollutants are transported from East Asia in the winter-spring season, whereas clean air mass is transported from the Pacific Ocean in the summer-fall season.  相似文献   

The geochemistry of volatile species in melt inclusions and sulfide minerals from Izu-Oshima volcano, Japan     

Kei Ikehata  Atsushi Yasuda  Kenji Notsu 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2010,99(1-2):143-152

Olivine-hosted melt inclusions in the O95 pyroclastic layer of Izu-Oshima volcano, Japan are basaltic to basaltic-andesitic in composition. The negative correlation between SiO₂ and H₂O in melt inclusions and reverse compositional zoning observed in olivine and other mineral phenocrysts is inferred to arise from mixing between a highly evolved and a less evolved magma. The latter is characterized by the highest S (0.15 wt.%) and H₂O (3.4 wt.%) concentrations among those described in reports of previous studies. The S⁶⁺/S_total ratios in melt inclusions were 0.64?–?0.73, suggesting a relatively high oxidation state (NNO + 0.87 at 1150°C). The presence of pyrrhotites, which are found only in titanomagnetite microlites, suggests that sulfide saturation occurred during microlite growth under at a sulfur fugacity (log fS₂) value of around + 0.5 for T = 1060°C. The groundmass glass compositions are more evolved (andesitic composition) than any melt inclusions containing high amounts of Cl (0.13 wt.%) but negligible H₂O (0.20 wt.%) and S (< 70 ppm), suggesting that Cl was retained in the magma, in contrast to S and H₂O, which degassed strongly during magma effusion.  相似文献