A multimodel assessment of the climate change effect on the drought severity–duration–frequency relationship     

Joo Heon Lee  Chang Joo Kim 《水文研究》2013,27(19):2800-2813

In this study, the patterns of past and future drought occurrences in the Seoul region were analysed using observed historical data from the Seoul weather station located in the Korean Peninsula and four different types of general circulation models (GCMs), namely, GFDL:CM2_1, CONS:ECHO‐G, MRI:CGCM2_3_2 and UKMO:HADGEM1. To analyse statistical properties such as drought frequency duration and return period, the Standardized Precipitation Index was used to derive the severity–duration–frequency (SDF) curve from the drought frequency analysis. In addition, a drought spell analysis was conducted to estimate the frequency and change of drought duration for each drought classification. The results of the analysis suggested a decrease in the frequency of mild droughts and an increase in the frequency of severe and extreme droughts in the future. Furthermore, the average duration of droughts is expected to increase. A comparison of the SDF relationship derived from the observed data with that derived via the GCMs indicated that the drought severity for each return period was reduced as drought duration increased and that the drought severity derived from the GCMs was severer than the severity obtained using the observed data for the same duration and return period. Furthermore, among the four types of GCMs used in this study, the MRI model predicted the most severe future drought for the Seoul region, and the SDF curve derived using the MRI model also resulted in the highest degree of drought severity compared with the other GCMs. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Seismic imaging of gas hydrates in the northernmost South China sea   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Tan K. Wang  Ben Jhong Yang  Jia-Ming Deng  Chao-Shing Lee  Char-Shine Liu 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2010,31(1-2):59-76

Horizon velocity analysis and pre-stack depth migration of seismic profiles collected by R/V Maurice Ewing in 1995 across the accretionary prism off SW Taiwan and along the continental slope of the northernmost South China Sea were implemented for identifying gas hydrates. Similarly, a survey of 32 ocean-bottom seismometers (OBS), with a spacing of about 500 m, was conducted for exploring gas hydrates on the accretionary prism off SW Taiwan in April 2006. Travel times of head wave, refraction, reflection and converted shear wave identified from the hydrophone, vertical and horizontal components of these OBS data were applied for imaging P-wave velocity and Poisson’s ratio of hydrate-bearing sediments. In the accretionary prism off SW Taiwan, we found hydrate-bearing sediment, with a thickness of about 100–200 m, a relatively high P-wave velocity of 1.87–2.04 km/s and a relatively low Poisson’s ratio of 0.445–0.455, below anticlinal ridges near imbricate emergent thrusts in the drainage system of the Penghu and Kaoping Canyons. Free-gas layer, with a thickness of about 30–120 m, a relatively low P-wave velocity of 1.4–1.8 km/s and a relatively high Poisson’s ratio (0.47–0.48), was also observed below most of the bottom-simulating reflectors (BSR). Subsequently, based on rock physics of the three-phase effective medium, we evaluated the hydrate saturation of about 12–30% and the free-gas saturation of about 1–4%. The highest saturation (30% and 4%) of gas hydrates is found below anticlines due to N–S trending thrust-bounded folds and NE-SW thrusting and strike-slip ramps in the lower slope of the accretionary prism. We suggest that fluid may have migrated through the relay-fault array due to decollement folding and gas hydrates have been trapped in anticlines formed by the basement rises along the thrust faults. In contrast, in the rifted continental margin of the northernmost South China Sea, P-wave velocities of 1.9–2.2 km/s and 1.3–1.6 km/s, and thicknesses of about 50–200 m and 100–200 m, respectively, for a hydrate layer and a free-gas layer were imaged below the remnant and erosional ridges in the upper continental slope. High P-wave velocity of hydrate-bearing sediment below erosional ridges may also indicate high saturation of hydrates there. Normal faults due to rifting in the South China continental crust may have provided conduits for gas migration below the erosional ridges where P-wave velocity of hydrate-bearing sediment in the passive continental margin of the northernmost South China Sea is greater than that in the active accretionary prism off SW Taiwan.  相似文献   

A comparison of MODIS and NOHRSC snow‐cover products for simulating streamflow using the Snowmelt Runoff Model     

Songweon Lee  Andrew G. Klein  Thomas M. Over 《水文研究》2005,19(15):2951-2972

Remote sensing is an important source of snow‐cover extent for input into the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) and other snowmelt models. Since February 2000, daily global snow‐cover maps have been produced from data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The usefulness of this snow‐cover product for streamflow prediction is assessed by comparing SRM simulated streamflow using the MODIS snow‐cover product with streamflow simulated using snow maps from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC). Simulations were conducted for two tributary watersheds of the Upper Rio Grande basin during the 2001 snowmelt season using representative SRM parameter values. Snow depletion curves developed from MODIS and NOHRSC snow maps were generally comparable in both watersheds: satisfactory streamflow simulations were obtained using both snow‐cover products in larger watershed (volume difference: MODIS, 2·6%; NOHRSC, 14·0%) and less satisfactory streamflow simulations in smaller watershed (volume difference: MODIS, −33·1%; NOHRSC, −18·6%). The snow water equivalent (SWE) on 1 April in the third zone of each basin was computed using the modified depletion curve produced by the SRM and was compared with in situ SWE measured at Snowpack Telemetry sites located in the third zone of each basin. The SRM‐calculated SWEs using both snow products agree with the measured SWEs in both watersheds. Based on these results, the MODIS snow‐cover product appears to be of sufficient quality for streamflow prediction using the SRM in the snowmelt‐dominated basins. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hydrochemistry of groundwaters in a spa area of Korea: an implication for water quality degradation by intensive pumping     

Kangjoo Kim  Min‐Ho Koo  Sang‐Ho Moon  Byoung‐Woo Yum  Kwang‐Sik Lee 《水文研究》2005,19(2):493-505

A geochemical study was carried out in a small spa area (Onyang Spa, Korea) where intensive pumping of deep thermal groundwater (1 300 000 m³ year⁻¹) is taking place. This has caused the deep fractures to lose their artesian pressure and the upper shallow fractures have been encroached by shallow, cold waters. To quantify the influence of long‐term heavy pumping on the quality of the geothermal water, groundwater sampling and chemical analysis, water‐level measurement, and well loggings were performed for the selected deep thermal wells and shallow cold wells. Chemical analysis results indicate a big contrast in water chemistry and origins between the two water types. Shallow groundwater shows a wider concentration ranges in solutes that are closely related to human activity, illustrating the water's vulnerability to contamination near the land surface. Plots of water chemistry as a function of fluoride reveal that the quality of the thermal water was greatly influenced by the shallow, cold groundwater and that intensive pumping of the deep thermal groundwater has caused the introduction of shallow groundwater into the deeper fractures. Although the deep and the shallow fractures were piezometrically separated to some extent, a mixing model based on fluoride and nitrate indicated that the cold‐water fractions in the thermal wells are up to 50%. This suggests that the thermal water is faced with water quality degradation by the downward flow of the shallow, cold water. Restriction on the total of all the pumpage permits per unit area is suggested to restore the artesian pressure of the deep thermal aquifer and to prevent cold‐water intrusion in the study area. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Paired bedrock and boulder 10Be concentrations resulting from early Holocene ice retreat near Jakobshavn Isfjord,western Greenland     

Lee B. Corbett  Nicolás E. Young  Paul R. Bierman  Jason P. Briner  Thomas A. Neumann  Dylan H. Rood  Joseph A. Graly 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(13-14):1739-1749

We measured in situ cosmogenic ¹⁰Be in 16 bedrock and 14 boulder samples collected along a 40-km transect outside of and normal to the modern ice margin near Sikuijuitsoq Fjord in central-west Greenland (69°N). We use these data to understand better the efficiency of glacial erosion and to infer the timing, pattern, and rate of ice loss after the last glaciation. In general, the ages of paired bedrock and boulder samples are in close agreement (r² = 0.72). Eleven of the fourteen paired bedrock and boulder samples are indistinguishable at 1σ; this concordance indicates that subglacial erosion rates are sufficient to remove most or all ¹⁰Be accumulated during previous periods of exposure, and that few, if any, nuclides are inherited from pre-Holocene interglaciations. The new data agree well with previously-published landscape chronologies from this area, and suggest that two chronologically-distinct land surfaces exist: one outside the Fjord Stade moraine complex (～10.3 ± 0.4 ka; n = 7) and another inside (～8.0 ± 0.7 ka; n = 21). Six ¹⁰Be ages from directly outside the historic (Little Ice Age) moraine show that the ice margin first reached its present-day position ～7.6 ± 0.4 ka. Early Holocene ice margin retreat rates after the deposition of the Fjord Stade moraine complex were ～100–110 m yr^?1. Sikuijuitsoq Fjord is a tributary to the much larger Jakobshavn Isfjord and the deglaciation chronologies of these two fjords are similar. This synchronicity suggests that the ice stream in Jakobshavn Isfjord set the timing and pace of early Holocene deglaciation of the surrounding ice margin.  相似文献   

A period study and light-curve synthesis for the Algol-type semidetached binary XX Cephei     

Jae Woo Lee  Chun-Hwey Kim  Robert H. Koch 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,379(4):1665-1680

We obtained CCD photometric observations of the Algol-type semidetached binary XX Cephei (XX Cep) during 15 nights from 2002 September 17 to 2003 February 2, and also on 2005 January 21. Except for those data taken on the last night of the concentrated observing season, the 3881 measurements were obtained over an interval of only 106 nights. From these data, four new times of minimum light were calculated. The  (O− C)  diagram formed from all available timings, and thus the orbital period of the system, can be partly represented as a beat effect between two cyclical variations with different periods (      yr,      yr) and amplitudes  ( K ₁=0.015 d, K ₂=0.103 d)  , respectively. Both physical and non-physical interpretations of these cycles were investigated. The long-term sinusoidal variation is too long for magnetic cycling in solar-type single and close binary stars. In addition, we have studied the effect of a possible secular period variation. By analysing the residuals from our Wilson–Devinney (WD) binary model, we found small light variations with a period of 5.99 d with amplitudes growing toward longer wavelengths. We think that these oscillations may be produced by instabilities at the systemic L ₁ point (also occupied by the point of the cool star) and that these instabilities are, in turn, caused by non-uniform and sporadic convection. There is also a short-period oscillation of about 45 min in the WD light residuals that is attributed to accretion on to the mass-gaining primary component from a feeble gas stream originating on the cool donor star.  相似文献   

Hydrological effects of climate change,groundwater withdrawal,and land use in a small Korean watershed     

Kil Seong Lee  Eun‐Sung Chung 《水文研究》2007,21(22):3046-3056

The effects of variability in climate and watershed (groundwater withdrawal and land use) on dry‐weather streamflows were investigated using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The equation to predict the total runoff (TR) using climate data was derived from simulation results for 30 years by multiple regression analysis. These may be used to estimate effects of various climate variations (precipitation during the dry period, precipitation during the previous wet period, solar radiation, and maximum temperature). For example, if daily average maximum temperature increases by 3 °C, TR during the dry period will decrease by 27·9%. Similarly, groundwater withdrawals strongly affect streamflow during the dry period. However, land use changes (increasing urbanization) within the forested watershed do not appear to significantly affect TR during the dry period. Finally, a combined equation was derived that describes the relationships between the TR during the dry period and the climate, groundwater withdrawal and urban area proportion in a small monsoon watershed. This equation will be effective to predict the water availability during the dry periods in the future since it is closely related to changes of temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, urban area ratio, and groundwater withdrawal quantity. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

UV bright globular clusters in M87: more evidence for super-He-rich stellar populations?     

S. Kaviraj  S. T. Sohn  R. W. O'Connell  S.-J. Yoon  Y. W. Lee  S. K. Yi 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,377(3):987-996

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Effects of hydrostatic pressure on microbial alteration of sinking fecal pellets     

Christian Tamburini  Madeleine Goutx  Catherine Guigue  Marc Garel  Dominique Lefvre  Bruno Charrire  Richard Sempr  Stphane Pepa  Michael L. Peterson  Stuart Wakeham  Cindy Lee 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2009,56(18):1533-1546

We used a new experimental device called PASS (PArticle Sinking Simulator) during MedFlux to simulate changes in in situ hydrostatic pressure that particles experience sinking from mesopelagic to bathypelagic depths. Particles, largely fecal pellets, were collected at 200 m using a settling velocity NetTrap (SV NetTrap) in Ligurian Sea in April 2006 and incubated in high-pressure bottles (HPBs) of the PASS system under both atmospheric and continuously increasing pressure conditions, simulating the pressure change experienced at a sinking rate of 200 m d⁻¹. Chemical changes over time were evaluated by measuring particulate organic carbon (POC), carbohydrates, transparent exopolymer particles (TEP), amino acids, lipids, and chloropigments, as well as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved carbohydrates. Microbial changes were evaluated microscopically, using diamidinophenylindole (DAPI) stain for total cell counts and catalyzed reporter deposition-fluorescence in situ hybridization (CARD-FISH) for phylogenetic distinctions. Concentrations (normalized to POC) of particulate chloropigments, carbohydrates and TEP decreased under both sets of incubation conditions, although less under the increasing pressure regime than under atmospheric conditions. By contrast, dissolved carbohydrates (normalized to DOC) were higher after incubation and significantly higher under atmospheric conditions, suggesting they were produced at the expense of the particulate fraction. POC-normalized particulate wax/steryl esters increased only under pressure, suggesting biochemical responses of prokaryotes to the increasing pressure regime. The prokaryotic community initially consisted of 43% Bacteria, 12% Crenarchaea and 11% Euryarchaea. After incubation, Bacteria dominated (90%) the prokaryote community in all cases, with γ-Proteobacteria comprising the greatest fraction, followed by the Cytophaga–Flavobacter cluster and α-Proteobacteria group. Using the PASS system, we obtained chemical and microbial evidence that degradation by prokaryotes associated with fecal pellets sinking through mesopelagic waters is limited by the increasing pressure they experience.  相似文献   

Investigating the effect of ballasting by CaCO₃ in Emiliania huxleyi: I. Formation, settling velocities and physical properties of aggregates     

Anja Engel  Jennifer Szlosek  Lynn Abramson  Zhanfei Liu  Cindy Lee 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2009,56(18):1396-1407

To investigate the role of ballasting by biogenic minerals in the export of organic matter in the ocean, a laboratory experiment was conducted comparing aggregate formation and settling velocity of non-calcifying and calcifying strains of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi. Experiments were conducted by making aggregates using a roller table and following aggregate properties during incubation for a period of 40 days. Size, shape, and settling velocities of aggregates were described by image analysis of video pictures recorded during the roller tank incubation. Our results show that biogenic calcite has a strong effect on the formation rate and abundance of aggregates and on aggregate properties such as size, excess density, porosity, and settling velocity. Aggregates of calcifying cells (AGG_CAL) formed faster, were smaller and had higher settling velocities, excess densities, and mass than those of non-calcifying cells (AGG_NCAL). AGG_CAL showed no loss during the duration of the experiment, whereas AGG_NCAL decreased in size after 1 month of incubation. Potential mechanisms that can explain the different patterns in aggregate formation are discussed. Comparison of settling velocities of AGG_CAL and AGG_NCAL with aggregates formed by diatoms furthermore indicated that the ballast effect of calcite is greater than that of opal. Together these results help to better understand why calcite is of major importance for organic matter fluxes to the deep ocean.  相似文献