A timescale decomposed threshold regression downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall     

Linye Song  Wansuo Duan  Yun Li  Jiangyu Mao 《大气科学进展》2016,33(9):1071-7084

A timescale decomposed threshold regression(TSDTR) downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall(SCESR) is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data. It makes use of two distinct regression downscaling models corresponding to the interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability of SCESR.The two models are developed based on the partial least squares(PLS) regression technique, linking SCESR to SST modes in preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Specifically, using the datasets in the calibration period 1915–84, the variability of SCESR and SST are decomposed into interannual and interdecadal components. On the interannual timescale, a threshold PLS regression model is fitted to interannual components of SCESR and March SST patterns by taking account of the modulation of negative and positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). On the interdecadal timescale, a standard PLS regression model is fitted to the relationship between SCESR and preceding November SST patterns. The total rainfall prediction is obtained by the sum of the outputs from both the interannual and interdecadal models. Results show that the TSDTR downscaling approach achieves reasonable skill in predicting the observed rainfall in the validation period 1985–2006, compared to other simpler approaches. This study suggests that the TSDTR approach,considering different interannual SCESR-SST relationships under the modulation of PDO phases, as well as the interdecadal variability of SCESR associated with SST patterns, may provide a new perspective to improve climate predictions.  相似文献   

A Method for Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management of Rockbursts in Drill and Blast Tunnels     

Guo-Feng Liu  Xia-Ting Feng  Guang-Liang Feng  Bing-Rui Chen  Dong-Fang Chen  Shu-Qian Duan 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2016,49(8):3257-3279

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南京周家山下蜀黄土石英颗粒特征及其物源意义   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

徐洪阳  郑祥民  周立旻  任少芳  王小玉  玄晓娜 《沉积学报》2016,34(6):1176-1186

下蜀黄土的成因和物源一直是学术界研究的热点。对南京周家山下蜀黄土的石英粒度和石英表面微结构进行分析,结果显示:粉砂粒级石英颗粒（5~50 μm）占绝对优势;<20 μm组分平均含量为42.76%,<30 μm组分平均含量为62.98%;粒度分布曲线和累积曲线总体具有颗粒偏细,呈正偏态,分选较差,峰形尖锐,双峰曲线不对称的特征;粒级-标准偏差曲线呈“双峰”分布,两个明显的标准偏差峰值分别出现在7.962 1 μm和39.905 2 μm。石英颗粒表面形态主要以次棱角状为主;表面机械结构具有丰富的蝶形坑、曲脊、贝壳状断口,部分表面出现平行节理面、V形坑;不同粒级组分表面形态和机械结构特征存在差异。分析表明,南京周家山下蜀黄土属典型风成成因堆积物,是多源区物质高度混合搬运堆积的结果。  相似文献   

右江盆地晚侏罗世钾玄质高镁安山岩的厘定及其构造意义   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0  

甘成势  王岳军  张玉芝  刘汇川  张立敏 《岩石学报》2016,32(11):3281-3294

右江盆地在大地构造上处于特提斯和滨太平洋构造域的结合部位。本文报道了该盆地东部杨屯安山岩的岩相学、年代学和地球化学特征。杨屯安山岩具斑状结构和气孔状构造,斑晶主要为辉石,基质以针状斜长石微晶为主,含少量辉石。LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年结果表明杨屯安山岩的喷发时代为159.3±2.8Ma,即晚侏罗世。样品的Si O2含量为53.13%~55.71%,具高MgO(6.74%~8.85%)、Mg#值(63~72)、Cr(416×10~(-6)~565×10~(-6))和Ni(207×10~(-6)~246×10~(-6)),低Fe OT/MgO(0.83~1.23)等特征,与典型高镁安山岩的特征相似。所有样品具高K2O(3.39%~4.77%)和K2O/Na2O(1.31~2.33),同时也具钾玄质岩石的地球化学特征。样品强烈富集大离子亲石元素和轻稀土元素,而亏损高场强元素,具较高的Rb/Sr(0.20~0.46)和较低的Ba/Rb(7.17~9.30),富集的Sr-Nd同位素组成((87Sr/86Sr)i=0.70738~0.70739,εNd(t)=-3.6~-3.4)。元素和同位素特征表明杨屯钾玄质高镁安山岩是含金云母的富集岩石圈地幔部分熔融的产物,形成于板内伸展环境而不是岛弧环境。晚侏罗世杨屯钾玄质高镁安山岩的厘定,反映了该时期右江地区处于岩石圈伸展-减薄阶段。  相似文献   

胶州湾沉积物重金属形态不同浸取方法的比较与污染讯息指示作用初探   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

梁宪萌  宋金明  段丽琴  袁华茂  李宁  李学刚 《海洋学报》2016,38(10):12-21

海洋沉积物中重金属的活性形态对于指示沉积物污染状况具有重要作用;为探寻简洁且能够有效提取重金属活性形态的浸提方法;实验研究了0.1 mol/L和1 mol/L盐酸的单级提取和欧共体标准局（European Community Bureau of Reference）提出的BCR分级提取法对胶州湾表层沉积物中重金属（Cr、Cu、Ni、Pb、Zn）和Al、Fe、Mn的浸取效果。结果显示;3种提取方法提取的金属含量呈显著正相关关系;两种浓度的稀盐酸对BCR方法中的酸可提取态和可还原态金属均具有较好浸提效果;但对可氧化态金属浸提能力相对较弱。不同提取方法的人为信号指数（ASI）计算结果表明;BCR浸取法提取结果的金属ASI值最大;表明其对沉积物中金属活性形态提取效率较高;1 mol/L HCl提取结果的金属ASI值最低;可能是较高浓度强酸使沉积物较大颗粒内层中“惰性”金属被浸取出来;“增加”了金属活性组分的污染讯息信号;对沉积物中Cu、Pb和Zn而言;0.1 mol/L HCl提取结果的ASI值与BCR方法接近。经过Al归一化后;0.1 mol/L HCl浸提的重金属含量的空间分布与胶州湾的实际污染状况相吻合;表明0.1 mol/L的HCl在一定程度上能够代替复杂的BCR浸取法;此方法可简化重金属活性形态的提取步骤;适合大范围沉积物重金属污染评价。  相似文献   

Snow disaster characteristics in Palongzangbu River Basin and mitigation countermeasures for road engineering     

ShuSu Duan  LingKan Yao  XiaoDan Sun  Qiang Cai 《寒旱区科学》2016,8(2):95-102

The Palongzangbu River Basin contains the highest number of maritime province glaciers in China.There are 130 glacial lakes,64 snow avalanche sites and 28 glacial debris flow gullies distributed within the basin.Snow disasters play a controlling role in the Sichuan-Tibet Highway construction,due to the terrain's special characteristics of high altitude and large height differential.Segmentation mitigation countermeasures for the Sichuan-Tibet Highway are presented based on snow disaster severity level and damage mode of the road.In the Ranwu to Midui section,snow avalanches are regional disasters, so the line should be placed in sunny slopes.In the Midui Gully to Yupu section,the line should be placed in shady slopes and at higher elevations to reduce the risk of glacial lake outburst.In the Yupu to Guxiang section,all three snow disasters are minimal.In the Guxiang to Tongmai section,glacier debris flows are the major threat,thus the road should be placed in shady slopes.  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal evolution of urban innovation structure based on zip code geodatabase: An empirical study from Shanghai and Beijing     

Dezhong Duan  Debin Du  Chengliang Liu  Seamus Grimes 《地理学报(英文版)》2016,26(12):1707-1724

In today’s world, the innovation of science and technology has become the key support for improving comprehensive national strength and changing the mode of social production and lifestyle. The country that possesses world-class scientific and technological innovation cities maximizes the attraction of global innovation factors and wins a strategic initiative in international competition. Based on the urban zip code geodatabase, an evaluation system of urban innovation with the perspective of innovation outputs, and the spatial evolutionary mode, concerning the structure of innovation space of Shanghai and Beijing from 1991 to 2014, was developed. The results of the research indicated that the zip code geodatabase provided a new perspective for studying the evolving spatial structure of urban innovation. The resulting evaluation of the spatial structure of urban innovation using the urban zip code geodatabase established by connecting random edge points, was relatively effective. The study illustrates the value of this methodology. During the study period, the spatial structure of innovation of Shanghai and Beijing demonstrated many common features: with the increase in urban space units participating in innovation year by year, the overall gap of regional innovation outputs has narrowed, and the trend towards spatial agglomeration has strengthened. The evolving spatial structure of innovation of Shanghai and Beijing demonstrated differences between the common features during the 25 years as well: in the trend towards the suburbanization of innovation resources, the spatial structure of innovation of Shanghai evolved from a single-core to a multi-core structure. A radiation effect related to traffic arteries as spatial diffusion corridors was prominent. Accordingly, a spatial correlation effect of its innovation outputs also indicated a hollowness in the city center; the spatial structure of innovation of Beijing had a single-core oriented structure all the way. Together with the tendency for innovation resources to be agglomerated in the city center, the spatial correlation effect of innovation outputs reflected the characteristics of the evolutionary feature where “rural area encircles cities”. The innovation spatial structure of Shanghai and Beijing have intrinsic consistency with the spatial structure of their respective regions (Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region), which suggested that the principle of proportional and disproportional distribution of a city-scale pattern of technological and innovational activities is closely related to its regional innovation pattern.  相似文献   

Response of Xiao Dongkemadi Glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau to the current climate change and future scenarios by 2050     

Pei-hong Shi  Ke-qin Duan  Huan-cai Liu  Jun-hua Yang  Xiao Zhang  Jian-yong Sun 《山地科学学报》2016,13(1):13-28

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Distinguishing between faults and coal collapse columns based on sediment dating: a case study of the Huainan coal field,China     

Fengtian Yang  Zhonghe Pang  Zhongfeng Duan 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(11):959

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Mineralization time and tectonic setting of the Zhengguang Au deposit in the Duobaoshan ore field,Heilongjiang Province,NE China     

Yu-Jie Hao  Yun-Sheng Ren  Ming-Xin Duan  Xuan Zhao  Qun Yang  Kuang-Yin Tong  Chao Li 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(15):655

The Zhengguang deposit, a representative large gold deposit in the Duobaoshan ore field in NE China, is located in the northeast of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB). Ore body emplacement was structurally controlled and occurs mainly at the contact zone between the strata of Duobaoshan Formation and an Ordovician diorite stock. The diorite rocks have a close genetic relationship with Au mineralization. Re–Os isotope dating of Au-bearing pyrite yields an isochron age of 506 ± 44 Ma (MSWD = 15). Based on present and previous dating results, it can be concluded that the Zhengguang deposit formed at ~480 Ma. The mineralization time of the Zhengguang deposit is nearly identical to those of the Duobaoshan and Tongshan deposits, indicating they are all derived from the same metallogenic system. The Duobaoshan-style porphyry Cu–Mo mineralization may exist at deeper levels at Zhengguang. The geochemical characteristics of the Zhengguang dioritic rocks presented in this paper are similar to those of bajaitic high-Mg andesite, and the magmas originated from a mantle wedge metasomatized by melts from a subducting oceanic slab at an active continental margin setting. The Ordovician magmatic–metallogenic events in the Duobaoshan ore field were caused by the westward subduction of an oceanic slab located between the Xing’an and Songliao blocks. It is worth pointing out that the Zhengguang deposit is the oldest known Phanerozoic Au deposit in NE China. Further studies of this deposit will improve understanding of the regularity of ore formation and aid mineralization forecast across the Duobaoshan region.  相似文献