Validation of climate model output using Bayesian statistical methods     

Mark A. Snyder  Bruno Sansó  Lisa C. Sloan 《Climatic change》2007,83(4):457-476

The growing interest in and emphasis on high spatial resolution estimates of future climate has demonstrated the need to apply regional climate models (RCMs) to that problem. As a consequence, the need for validation of these models, an assessment of how well an RCM reproduces a known climate, has also grown. Validation is often performed by comparing RCM output to gridded climate datasets and/or station data. The primary disadvantage of using gridded climate datasets is that the spatial resolution is almost always different and generally coarser than climate model output. We have used a Bayesian statistical model derived from observational data to validate RCM output. We used surface air temperature (SAT) data from 109 observational stations in California, all with records of approximately 50 years in length, and created a statistical model based on this data. The statistical model takes into account the elevation of the station, distance from coastline, and the NOAA climate region in which the station resides. Analysis indicates that the statistical model provides reliable estimates of the mean monthly SAT at any given station. In our method, the uncertainty in the estimates produced by the statistical model are directly determined by obtaining probability density functions for predicted SATs. This statistical model is then used to estimate average SATs corresponding to each of the climate model grid cells. These estimates are compared to the output of the RCM to assess how well the RCM matches the observed climate as defined by the statistical model. Overall, the match between the RCM output and the statistical model is good, with some deficiencies likely due in part to the representation of topography in the RCM.  相似文献   

Detection of iodine monoxide radicals in the marine boundary layer using laser induced fluorescence spectroscopy     

Lisa K. Whalley  Kate L. Furneaux  Tom Gravestock  Helen M. Atkinson  Catherine S. E. Bale  Trevor Ingham  William J. Bloss  Dwayne E. Heard 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2007,58(1):19-39

A Laser Induced Fluorescence (LIF) instrument has been developed to detect iodine monoxide (IO) radicals in the atmosphere. An all solid-state Nd:YAG pumped Ti:Sapphire laser operating at approximately 445 nm was used to excite the (2,0) band of the IO A²Π_3/2 ← X²Π_3/2 electronic transition, with off-resonance fluorescence in the (2,5) band detected at 521 nm. The sensitivity of the instrument was determined by calibration. IO (between 10 and 150 pptV) was generated following the 184.9 nm photolysis of N₂O/CF₃I/N₂ mixtures with O₃ actinometry used to determine the photolysis flux. The detection limit was determined to be 0.3 pptV for a 300 s integration period, with an uncertainty of 23% (1σ). The instrument was deployed in August/September 2006 during the RHaMBLe (Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer) campaign in Roscoff, France. Located on a small jetty, a few metres from the water’s edge at high tide, the instrument measured significant levels of IO on 11 days, with a maximum of 27.6 ± 3.2 pptV observed on one day (averaged over 10 s) representing the highest IO mixing ratio recorded in the marine boundary layer to date. IO displayed a clear diurnal profile with a maximum at low tide during the daytime. These results represent the first point measurements of IO in the atmosphere by LIF.  相似文献   

Macrobenthos of Spartina foliosa (Pacific Cordgrass) salt marshes in Southern California: Community structure and comparison to a Pacific mudflat and a Spartina alterniflora (Atlantic smooth cordgrass) marsh     

Lisa A. Levin  Theresa Sinicrope Talley  Judi Hewitt 《Estuaries and Coasts》1998,21(1):129-144

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Aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons in benthic invertebrates from two sites in Antarctica     

Andrew Clarke  Robin Law 《Marine pollution bulletin》1981,12(1):10-14

Samples of marine benthic invertebrates collected from two sites in the Antarctic have been analysed for both aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons in order to establish baseline concentrations for some classes of hydrocarbons.Samples from Signy Island, a pristine site, contained low concentrations of the hydrocarbons determined, whereas those from King Edward Cove, South Georgia, contained significantly higher concentrations. King Edward Cove has a known history of pollution from whaling operations.Platt & Mackie (1979) have suggested that the hydrocarbons in sediments from King Edward Cove are a result of the world-wide dissemination of the pyrolysis products of fossil fuels. Our work suggests, in contrast, that the hydrocarbons in the benthos are derived from local sources.  相似文献   

Petroleum hydrocarbon analyses conducted following the wreck of the supertanker Anoco Cadiz     

R.J. Law 《Marine pollution bulletin》1978,9(11):293-296

Following the wreck of the AMOCO CADIZ on 16 March 1978, samples of water, sediment and oil were collected between April and June from the Brittany coast and western English Channel and were analysed for petroleum hydrocarbons by means of fluorescence spectroscopy, gas-liquid chromatography and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry.  相似文献   

Electromagnetic induction in the San Juan Bay region of Vancouver Island     

G.H. Chan  H.W. Dosso  L.K. Law 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1981,27(2):114-121

The response of the electric and magnetic field variations over the San Juan Bay region of Vancouver Island is studied using a scaled laboratory analogue model. The laboratory frequencies simulate periods of 10 and 100 s in the geophysical problem. The model results indicate that, for both E- and H-polarization of the source field, induced current in the ocean is deflected around Cape Flattery and channelled into the Juan de Fuca Strait. With increasing period, the proportion of current channelled into the Strait decreases sharply. Induced current in the strait is also funnelled into San Juan Bay, a finger-shaped bay ca. 4 km wide and 7.5 km long, for both polarizations of the source field. The effect of the Bay on the field response is confined to the local region, within approximately 6 km of the centre of the Bay. Good agreement between field station and analogue model H_z results was obtained for the San Juan Bay. The behaviour of the Parkinson arrow for these two stations is examined with the aid of the analogue model results.  相似文献   

Macrobenthos relative to the oxygen minimum zone on the East Indian margin,Bay of Bengal          下载免费PDF全文

Akkur V. Raman  Rayaroth Damodaran  Lisa A. Levin  Thiruchitrambalam Ganesh  Yannamani K. V. Rao  Sateesh Nanduri  Rakhesh Madhusoodhanan 《Marine Ecology》2015,36(3):679-700

The Bay of Bengal remains one of the least studied of the world's oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). Here we offer a detailed investigation of the macrobenthos relative to oxygen minimum zone [OMZ – DO (dissolved oxygen), concentration <0.5 ml·1^?1] at 110 stations off the North East Indian margin (16⁰ and 20⁰ N) featuring coastal, shelf and slope settings (10–1004 m). Macrobenthos (>0.5 mm) composition, abundance and diversity were studied in relation to variations in depth, dissolved oxygen, sediment texture and organic carbon. Using multivariate procedures powered by SIMPROF analysis we identified distinct OMZ core sites (depth 150–280 m; DO 0.37 ml·1^?1) that exhibited dense populations of surface‐feeding polychaetes (mean 2188 ind. m^?2) represented by spionids and cossurids (96%). Molluscs and crustaceans were poorly represented except for ampeliscid amphipods. The lower OMZ sites (DO > 0.55 ml·l^?1) supported a different assemblage of polychaetes (cirratulids, amphinomids, eunicids, orbinids, paraonids), crustaceans and molluscs, albeit with low population densities (mean 343 ind. m^?2). Species richness [E(S₁₀₀)], diversity (Margalef d; H’) and evenness (J’) were lower and dominance was higher within the OMZ core region. Multiple regression analysis showed that a combination of sand, clay, organic carbon, and dissolved oxygen explained 62–78% of the observed variance in macrobenthos species richness and diversity: E(S₁₀₀) and H’. For polychaetes, clay and oxygen proved important. At low oxygen sites (DO <1 ml·l^?1), depth accounted for most variance. Residual analysis (after removing depth effects) revealed that dissolved oxygen and sediment organic matter influenced 50–62% of residual variation in E(S₁₀₀), H’ and d for total macrofauna. Of this, oxygen alone influenced up to ~50–62%. When only polychaetes were evaluated, oxygen and organic matter explained up to 58–63%. For low oxygen sites, organic matter alone had the explanatory power when dominance among polychaetes was considered. Overall, macrobenthic patterns in the Bay of Bengal were consistent with those reported for other upwelling margins. However, the compression of faunal gradients at shallower depths was most similar to the Chile/Peru margin, and different from the Arabian Sea, where the depth range of the OMZ is two times greater. The Bay of Bengal patterns may take on added significance as OMZs shoal globally.  相似文献   

The toxicological impacts of oil and chemically dispersed oil: UV mediated phototoxicity and implications for environmental effects, statutory testing and response strategies     

Kirby MF  Lyons BP  Barry J  Law RJ 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(4):472-475

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Benthic meiofauna community composition at polluted and non-polluted sites in New Zealand intertidal environments   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hack LA  Tremblay LA  Wratten SD  Lister A  Keesing V 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(11):1801-1812

Meiofauna composition was investigated for six field sites, including polluted and non-polluted sites, within two regions (Auckland and Bay of Plenty) during winter (July-August 2004) in the North Island of New Zealand. Physico-chemical parameters were measured during the sampling period and meiofauna distribution and abundance were compared with these measured parameters. Analysis of meiofauna abundance indicated that foraminiferans, nematodes and ostracods were the taxa that contributed to the variability between field sites within the Auckland region. However, no clear taxa dominance was seen in the Bay of Plenty region. Comparison of meiofauna abundance and physico-chemical parameters was done using multivariate analysis (PRIMER). However, no clear relationships between the parameters were observed in any field site in either region. The Shannon-Weiner index of diversity did not show any clear differentiation between polluted and non-polluted field sites. Therefore, from the present study, the taxa or physico-chemical parameters used could not effectively characterise pollution at the investigated field sites.  相似文献   

The fate of technetium in reduced estuarine sediments: Combining direct and indirect analyses     

Ian T. Burke  Francis R. Livens  Jonathan R. Lloyd  Andrew P. Brown  Gareth T.W. Law  Joyce M. McBeth  Beverley L. Ellis  Richard S. Lawson  Katherine Morris 《Applied Geochemistry》2010

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