Scenario Reduction Applied to Geostatistical Simulations     

Margaret Armstrong  Aziz Ndiaye  Rija Razanatsimba  Alain Galli 《Mathematical Geosciences》2013,45(2):165-182

Having a large number of geostatistical simulations of a mineral or petroleum deposit provides a better idea of its upside potential and downside risk; however, large numbers of simulated realizations of a deposit may pose computational difficulties in subsequent decision-making phases. Hence, depending on the specific case, there can be a need to select a representative subset of conditionally simulated deposit realizations. This paper examines and extends an approach developed by the stochastic optimization community based on stochastic mathematical programming with recourse and is discussed here in the context of mineral deposits while it is possibly suitable for other earth science applications. The approach is based on measuring the “distance” between simulations and the introduced distance measure between simulated realizations of a mineral deposit is based on the metal above a given set of cutoff grades while a pre-existing mine design is available. The approach is tested on 100 simulations of the Walker Lake data with promising results.  相似文献   

The spatial and temporal patterns of aggradation in a temperate,upland, gravel‐bed river     

Emma K. Raven  Stuart N. Lane  Rob I. Ferguson  Louise J. Bracken 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2009,34(9):1181-1197

Intensive field monitoring of a reach of upland gravel‐bed river illustrates the temporal and spatial variability of in‐channel sedimentation. Over the six‐year monitoring period, the mean bed level in the channel has risen by 0·17 m with a maximum bed level rise of 0·5 m noted at one location over a five month winter period. These rapid levels of aggradation have a profound impact on the number and duration of overbank flows with flood frequency increasing on average 2·6 times and overbank flow time increasing by 12·8 hours. This work raises the profile of coarse sediment transfer in the design and operation of river management, specifically engineering schemes. It emphasizes the need for the implementation of strategic monitoring programmes before engineering work occurs to identify zones where aggradation is likely to be problematic. Exploration of the sediment supply and transfer system can explain patterns of channel sedimentation. The complex spatial, seasonal and annual variability in sediment supply and transfer raise uncertainties into the system's response to potential changes in climate and land‐use. Thus, there is a demand for schemes that monitor coarse sediment transfer and channel response. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Geophysical Finite-Element Simulation Tool (GeoFEST): Algorithms and Validation for Quasistatic Regional Faulted Crust Problems     

Jay Parker  Gregory Lyzenga  Charles Norton  Cinzia Zuffada  Margaret Glasscoe  John Lou  Andrea Donnellan 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(3-4):497-521

GeoFEST (Geophysical Finite Element Simulation Tool) is a two- and three-dimensional finite element software package for the modeling of solid stress and strain in geophysical and other continuum domain applications. It is one of the featured high-performance applications of the NASA QuakeSim project. The program is targeted to be compiled and run on UNIX systems, and is running on diverse systems including sequential and message-passing parallel systems. Solution to the elliptical partial differential equations is obtained by finite element basis sampling, resulting in a sparse linear system primarily solved by conjugate gradient iteration to a tolerance level; on sequential systems a Crout factorization for the direct inversion of the linear system is also supported. The physics models supported include isotropic linear elasticity and both Newtonian and power-law viscoelasticity, via implicit quasi-static time stepping. In addition to triangular, quadrilateral, tetrahedral and hexahedral continuum elements, GeoFEST supports split-node faulting, body forces, and surface tractions. This software and related mesh refinement strategies have been validated on a variety of test cases with rigorous comparison to analytical solutions. These include a box-shaped domain with imposed motion on one surface, a pair of strike slip faults in stepover arrangement, and two community-agreed benchmark cases: a strike slip fault in an enclosing box, and a quarter-domain circular fault problem. Scientific applications of the code include the modeling of static and transient co- and post-seismic earth deformation, Earth response to glacial, atmospheric and hydrological loading, and other scenarios involving the bulk deformation of geologic media.  相似文献   

Quantifying the effects of environmental change on an oyster population: A modeling study     

Margaret M. Dekshenieks  Eileen E. Hofmann  John M. Klinck  Eric N. Powell 《Estuaries and Coasts》2000,23(5):593-610

Three models are combined to investigate the effects of changes in environmental conditions on the population structure of the Eastern oyster,Crassostrea virginica. The first model, a time-dependent model of the oyster population as described in Powell et al. (1992, 1994, 1995a,b, 1996, 1997) and Hofmann et al. (1992, 1994, 1995), tracks the distribution, development, spawning, and mortality of sessile oyster populations. The second model, a time-dependent larval growth model as described in Dekshenieks et al. (1993), simulates larval growth and mortality. The final model, a finite element hydrodynamic model, simulates the circulation in Galveston Bay, Texas. The coupled post-settlement-larval model (the oyster model) runs within the finite element grid at locations that include known oyster reef habitats. The oyster model was first forced with 5 yr of mean environmental conditions to provide a reference simulation for Galveston Bay. Additional simulations considered the effects of long-term increases and decreases in freshwater inflow and temperature, as well as decreases in food concentration and total seston on Galveston Bay oyster populations. In general, the simulations show that salinity is the primary environmental factor controling the spatial extent of oyster distribution within the estuary. Results also indicate a need to consider all environmental factors when attempting to predict the response of oyster populations; it is the superposition of a combination of these factors that determines the state of the population. The results from this study allow predictions to be made concerning the effects of environmental change on the status of oyster populations, both within Galveston Bay and within other estuarine systems supporting oyster populations.  相似文献   

Run‐off processes from mountains to foothills: The role of soil stratigraphy and structure in influencing run‐off characteristics across high to low relief landscapes          下载免费PDF全文

Margaret A. Zimmer  John P. Gannon 《水文研究》2018,32(11):1546-1560

The critical zone features that control run‐off generation, specifically at the regional watershed scale, are not well understood. Here, we addressed this knowledge gap by quantitatively and conceptually linking regional watershed‐scale run‐off regimes with critical zone structure and climate gradients across two physiographic provinces in the Southeastern United States. We characterized long‐term (~20 years) discharge and precipitation regimes for 73 watersheds with United States Geological Survey in‐stream gaging stations across the Appalachian Mountain and Piedmont physiographic provinces of North Carolina. Watersheds included in this analysis had <10% developed land and ranged in size from 14.1–4,390 km². Thirty‐four watersheds were located in the Piedmont physiographic province, which is typically classified as a low relief landscape with deep, highly weathered soils and regolith. Thirty‐nine watersheds were located in the Appalachian Mountain physiographic province, which is typically classified as a steeper landscape with highly weathered, but shallower soils and regolith. From the United States Geological Survey daily mean run‐off time series, we calculated annual and seasonal baseflow indices (BFI), minimum, mean, and maximum daily run‐off, and Pearson's correlation coefficients between precipitation and baseflow. Our results showed that Appalachian Mountain watersheds systematically had higher minimum daily flows and BFI values. Piedmont watersheds displayed much larger deviations from mean annual BFI in response to year‐to‐year variability in precipitation. A series of linear regression models between 21 landscape metrics and annual BFIs showed non‐linear and complex terrestrial–hydrological relationships across the two provinces. From these results, we discuss how distinct features of critical zone architecture, with specific focus on soil depth and stratigraphy, may be dominating the regulation of hydrological processes and run‐off regimes across these provinces.  相似文献   

    

Margaret Armstrong 《Mathematical Geology》1985,17(8):855-859

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Frequency dependence of Q in the mantle underlying the shield areas of Eurasia, Part II: analyses of long period data     

Alison C. Lees  Zoltan A. Der  Vernon F. Cormier  Margaret E. Marshall  James A. Burnetti 《Geophysical Journal International》1986,87(3):1085-1101

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‘Jack of all trades’? The negotiation of interdisciplinarity within geography     

Lisa Lau  Margaret Pasquini 《Geoforum》2008,39(2):552-560

This paper explores the relationship between interdisciplinary studies and research and researchers’ positionalities, both within and beyond geography. The profound degree to which researchers’ assumptions, expectations and attitudes (which in turn are affected by their personal backgrounds, training, location, etc.) influences the very notion of interdisciplinarity, and what it involves and consists of, is often neither noted nor appreciated. This paper will illustrate, particularly through personal examples, how positionality is part of the circuit of knowledge production, informing academic research, employment and publishing to no small extent. The boundaries of interdisciplinary research are shown to be under constant negotiation, still far from mutual understanding or consensus, a fact which explains the often uneasy identification and negotiation of oneself as an interdisciplinary scholar. The paper concludes by making recommendations at individual and institutional level on how to overcome some of the constraints imposed by researchers’ positionalities to the promotion of interdisciplinary research.  相似文献   

A Social–Ecological Systems Approach to Assessing Conservation and Fisheries Outcomes in Fijian Locally Managed Marine Areas     

Stacy D. Jupiter  Graham Epstein  Natalie C. Ban  Sangeeta Mangubhai  Margaret Fox  Michael Cox 《社会与自然资源》2017,30(9):1096-1111

Locally managed marine areas (LMMAs) are often recommended as a strategy to achieve conservation and fisheries management, though few studies have evaluated their performance against these objectives. We assessed the effectiveness of eight periodically harvested closures (PHCs), the most common form of management within Fijian LMMAs, focusing on two outcomes: protection of resource units and biodiversity conservation. Of the eight PHCs, only one provided biodiversity benefits, whereas three were moderately successful in protecting resource units (targeted fish biomass). Protection of resource units was more likely when PHCs were harvested less frequently, less recently, and when total fish biomass in open areas was lower. Our findings further suggest that monitoring, enforcement, and clearly defined boundaries are critical, less frequent harvesting regimes are advised, and culturally appropriate management incentives are needed. Although PHCs have some potential to protect resource units, they are not recommended as a single strategy for broad-scale biodiversity conservation.  相似文献   

Migration velocity analysis using a genetic algorithm     

Paul Docherty  Ron Silva  Satish Singh  Zhong-Min Song  Margaret Wood 《Geophysical Prospecting》1997,45(5):865-878

Migration velocity analysis, a method for determining long wavelength velocity structure, is a critical step in prestack imaging. Solution of this inverse problem is made difficult by a multimodal objective function; a parameter space often vast in extent; and an evaluation procedure for candidate solutions, involving the calculation of depth-migrated image gathers, that can be prohibitively expensive. Recognizing the global nature of the problem, we employ a genetic algorithm (GA) in the search for the optimum velocity model. In order to describe a model efficiently, regions of smooth variation are identified and sparsely parametrized. Region boundaries are obtained via map migration of events picked on the zero-offset time section. Within a region, which may contain several reflectors, separate components describe long and short wavelength variations, eliminating from the parameter space, models with large velocity fluctuations. Vital to the success of the method is rapid model evaluation, achieved by generating image gathers only in the neighbourhood of specific reflectors. Probability of a model, which we seek to maximize, is derived from the flatness of imaged events. Except for an initial interpretation of the zero-offset time section, our method is automatic in that it requires no picking of residual moveout on migrated gathers. Using an example data set from the North Sea, we show that it is feasible to solve for all velocity parameters in the model simultaneously: the method is global in this respect also.  相似文献