Ocean/atmosphere interaction and Malthusian catastrophes on the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region in China, 1368–1911     

Harry F. Lee  Ricci P. H. Yue 《第四纪科学杂志》2020,35(7):974-986

How and to what extent are human societies affected by climate change? There has been a growing body of research using big historical data and statistical analyses to provide scientific answers to this inter-disciplinary research question. However, quantitative analysis measuring the historical demographic impact of ocean/atmosphere interaction is still scanty. Here we use 544 years (1368–1911) of historical records to trace the demographic impact brought about by ocean/atmosphere interaction in Shaanxi, located on the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region in China. Our results show that: (1) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) caused Malthusian catastrophes mainly through drought at the inter-annual scale; (2) drought reinforced the synchrony of various Malthusian catastrophes at the inter-annual to multi-decadal scale; and (3) the unusual cycles of NAO drove drought and various Malthusian catastrophes in the cold 1550–1730 period at the multi-decadal scale. This study represents a pioneering attempt to quantitatively assess the demographic impact caused by the ocean/atmosphere in historical China. Our findings may help to conceptualise the climate–human nexus in those ecologically marginal regions that are impacted by ocean/atmosphere interaction, and to explain the synchrony of social crisis in Eurasia in the 17th century.  相似文献   

Sediment deposition from turbidity currents in simulated aquatic vegetation canopies   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Marianna Soler  Jordi Colomer  Teresa Serra  Xavier Casamitjana  Andrew M. Folkard 《Sedimentology》2017,64(4):1132-1146

A laboratory flume experiment was carried out in which the hydrodynamic and sedimentary behaviour of a turbidity current was measured as it passed through an array of vertical rigid cylinders. The cylinders were intended primarily to simulate aquatic vegetation canopies, but could equally be taken to represent other arrays of obstacles, for example forests or offshore wind turbines. The turbidity currents were generated by mixing naturally sourced, poly‐disperse sediment into a reservoir of water at concentrations from 1·0 to 10·0 g l^?1, which was then released into the experimental section of the flume by removing a lock gate. For each initial sediment concentration, runs with obstacle arrays with solid plant fractions of 1·0% and 2·5%, and control cases with no obstacles, were carried out. The progress of the current along the flume was characterized by the array drag term, C_Dax_c (where C_D is the array drag coefficient, at the frontal area of cylinders per unit volume, and x_c is the position of the leading edge of the current along the flume). The downward depositional flux of sediment out of the current as it proceeded was measured at 13 traps along the flume. Analysis of these deposits divided them into fine (2·2 to 6·2 μm) and coarse (6·2 to 104 μm) fractions. At the beginning of their development, the gravity currents proceeded in an inertia‐dominated regime until C_Dax_c = 5. For C_Dax_c > 5, the current transitioned into a drag‐dominated regime. For both fine and coarse sediment fractions, the rate of sediment deposition tended to decrease gradually with distance from the source in the inertial regime, remained approximately constant at the early drag‐dominated regime, and then rose and peaked at the end of the drag‐dominated stage. This implies that, when passing through arrays of obstacles, the turbidity currents were able to retain sufficient sediment in suspension to maintain their flow until they became significantly influenced by the drag exerted by the obstacles.  相似文献   

Ca distribution between almandine-rich garnet and plagioclase in pelitic and psammitic schists from the metamorphic basement of North-Eastern Sardinia     

M. Franceschelli  I. Memmi  C. A. Ricci 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1982,80(3):285-295

Garnet and plagioclase pairs from fourteen selected samples, from garnet to sillimanite zones, collected along a NS traverse throughout the metamorphic basement of NE Sardinia, have been analyzed by microprobe.Beyond the garnet isograd, plagioclase has albitic composition and the garnet (a Ca-rich almandine) shows Ca/ Ca+Mg+Fe ratios of about 0.35–0.30, fairly constant from core to rim.Towards the North, still in the garnet zone, when on the large albitic core of plagioclase a thin and discontinuous oligoclasic rim (An₂₂–An₁₈) formed, we observe in the garnet edge an abrupt decrease of the Ca/Ca+Mg+Fe ratio (0.27–0.16).In the staurolite and sillimanite zones garnet does not show significant Ca-zoning and it is characterized by low Ca content (Ca/Ca+Mg+Fe<0.1); the coexisting plagioclase has oligoclasic (An₁₆–An₂₇) composition.The chemical data and the microstructural evidence on growth time indicate that the garnet and plagioclase had a strong mutual interference in determining the relative Ca distribution.The most relevant reactions are discussed and, in particular, the antipathetical Ca-zoning, recorded by garnet and plagioclase in the garnet zone, is considered as the evidence of temperature increase during growth of the two minerals. It is also suggested that the sharp variation of Ca content at the garnet edge was controlled by the discontinuous nature of plagioclase solid solution in the peristeritic range.The order of appearance of garnet and oligoclase in the basement of NE Sardinia is also discussed in comparison with other well known metamorphic sequence (Vermont, New Zealand and Dalradian). It is concluded that the different order of appearance is controlled other than the different nature of the calcic phases in the lower grade zones also by the in the fluid phase.  相似文献   

Cloud cover classification through simultaneous ground-based measurements of solar and infrared radiation     

Antonio Orsini  Claudio Tomasi  Francescopiero Calzolari  Marianna Nardino  Alessandra Cacciari  Teodoro Georgiadis   《Atmospheric Research》2002,61(4)

Simultaneous measurements of downwelling short-wave solar irradiance and incoming total radiation flux were performed at the Reeves Nevè glacier station (1200 m MSL) in Antarctica on 41 days from late November 1994 to early January 1995, employing the upward sensors of an albedometer and a pyrradiometer. The downwelling short-wave radiation measurements were analysed following the Duchon and O'Malley [J. Appl. Meteorol. 38 (1999) 132] procedure for classifying clouds, using the 50-min running mean values of standard deviation and the ratio of scaled observed to scaled clear-sky irradiance. Comparing these measurements with the Duchon and O'Malley rectangular boundaries and the local human observations of clouds collected on 17 days of the campaign, we found that the Duchon and O'Malley classification method obtained a success rate of 93% for cirrus and only 25% for cumulus. New decision criteria were established for some polar cloud classes providing success rates of 94% for cirrus, 67% for cirrostratus and altostratus, and 33% for cumulus and altocumulus.The ratios of the downwelling short-wave irradiance measured for cloudy-sky conditions to that calculated for clear-sky conditions were analysed in terms of the Kasten and Czeplak [Sol. Energy 24 (1980) 177] formula together with simultaneous human observations of cloudiness, to determine the empirical relationship curves providing reliable estimates of cloudiness for each of the three above-mentioned cloud classes. Using these cloudiness estimates, the downwelling long-wave radiation measurements (obtained as differences between the downward fluxes of total and short-wave radiation) were examined to evaluate the downwelling long-wave radiation flux normalised to totally overcast sky conditions. Calculations of the long-wave radiation flux were performed with the MODTRAN 3.7 code [Kneizys, F.X., Abreu, L.W., Anderson, G.P., Chetwynd, J.H., Shettle, E.P., Berk, A., Bernstein, L.S., Robertson, D.C., Acharya, P., Rothman, L.S., Selby, J.E.A., Gallery, W.O., Clough, S.A., 1996. In: Abreu, L.W., Anderson, G.P. (Eds.), The MODTRAN 2/3 Report and LOWTRAN 7 MODEL. Contract F19628-91-C.0132, Phillips Laboratory, Geophysics Directorate, PL/GPOS, Hanscom AFB, MA, 261 pp.] for both clear-sky and cloudy-sky conditions, considering various cloud types characterised by different cloud base altitudes and vertical thicknesses. From these evaluations, best-fit curves of the downwelling long-wave radiation flux were defined as a function of the cloud base height for the three polar cloud classes. Using these relationship curves, average estimates of the cloud base height were obtained from the three corresponding sub-sets of long-wave radiation measurements. The relative frequency histograms of the cloud base height defined by examining these three sub-sets were found to present median values of 4.7, 1.7 and 3.6 km for cirrus, cirrostratus/altostratus and cumulus/altocumulus, respectively, while median values of 6.5, 1.8 and 2.9 km were correspondingly determined by analysing only the measurements taken together with simultaneous cloud observations.  相似文献   

Slicks detection on the sea surface based upon polarimetric SAR data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Bandiera  F. Ricci  G. 《Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, IEEE》2005,2(3):342-346

This letter proposes a generalized-likelihood ratio test-based edge detector to be fed by possibly polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data. It can be used to detect dark spots on the sea surface and, hence, as the first stage of a system for identification and monitoring of oil spills. The proposed constant false alarm rate (CFAR) detector does not require secondary data (namely pixels from a slick-free area); remarkably, a preliminary performance assessment, carried out by resorting to real SAR recordings, shows that it guarantees detection capabilities comparable to those of previously proposed polarimetric CFAR detectors (which though make use of secondary data). The preliminary performance assessment also seems to indicate that processing polarimetric data does not ensure improved detection capabilities.  相似文献   

The Mediterranean Messinian salinity crisis: an Apennine foredeep perspective     

M. Roveri  M. A. Bassetti  F. Ricci Lucchi 《Sedimentary Geology》2001,140(3-4):201-214

Owing to its expanded stratigraphic sections, the Apennine thrust belt offers the opportunity to better understand the evaporitic and post-evaporitic Messinian events. A physical stratigraphic framework of Messinian deposits, based on facies analysis and basin-wide correlation of key surfaces and sedimentary cycles, is presented. It is shown that the Messinian Apennine foredeep had marginal basins with shallow-water primary evaporites and deeper basins where resedimented evaporites accumulated under relatively deep-water conditions. Like many other Mediterranean examples, primary shallow-water evaporites of Apenninic marginal basins show evidence for subaerial exposure and erosion. However, the development of such an erosional surface does not correspond to the deposition of primary evaporites in the deepest part of the basin(s); here, the unconformity can be traced towards the base of resedimented evaporites or to a level within them, implying that the deeper basins of the Apennine foredeep never underwent desiccation during the Messinian salinity crisis, but rather received the eroded marginal evaporites. This fact, usually overlooked, raises important questions about the deep desiccation model of the Mediterranean.  相似文献   

Fine-scale chlorite-muscovite association in low-grade metapelites from Nurra (NW Sardinia), and the possible misidentification of metamorphic vermiculite     

M. Franceschelli  M. Mellini  I. Memmi  C. A. Ricci 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1986,93(2):137-143

Chlorite-muscovite porphyroblasts occur in the low-grade metapelites from Nurra (NW Sardinia). Although actually heterogeneous and built up by two different intermixed minerals, the porphyroblasts strongly simulate optical homogeneity and produce microprobe analyses that are typical for metamorphic vermiculite. Transmission and scanning electron microscopy, combined with analytical facilities, leads to a deeper characterization of the porphyroblasts, that actually consist of a random association of chlorite and muscovite.As a further result, the present study also shows that the existing criteria used to identify metamorphic vermiculite, namely optical features and microprobe composition do not warrant the correct identification.Finally, the present results once more confirm the importance of back-scattered electron imaging in the SEM as a powerful tool for the routine petrographic study of sedimentary and low-grade metamorphic rocks.  相似文献   

Active hydrothermal fluids circulation triggering small-scale collapse events: the case of the 2001–2002 fissure in the Lakki Plain (Nisyros Island,Aegean Sea,Greece)     

Stefania Venturi  Franco Tassi  Orlando Vaselli  Georges E. Vougioukalakis  Heba Rashed  Christos Kanellopoulos  Chiara Caponi  Francesco Capecchiacci  Jacopo Cabassi  Andrea Ricci  Luciano Giannini 《Natural Hazards》2018,90(2):601-621

Rip currents are fast moving, offshore flows that have the ability to move even the strongest swimmers into deeper waters. Miami Beach, Florida is one of the most visited beaches in the USA and a sought after destination for citizens and international tourists alike. It is also known to be a rip current “hot spot.” These factors greatly increase the risk of drowning; however, no previous research has focused on beachgoer perception of rip-related risks in South Florida. Over a 12-month period, 203 public surveys were collected to determine the rip current knowledge of beachgoers at Miami Beach based on factors such as swimming ability and frequency of beach visits. The responses were analyzed by constructing a normalized component factor to determine the respondent’s comprehensive knowledge of rips, and multiple regression models were used to assess the net influences of sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics on the responses. A significant proportion of the survey respondents showed insufficient knowledge, indicating they are at risk of drowning in a rip current. Frequent beachgoer’s exposure to the beach environment, maturation, and nativity is identified as the main contributors to knowledge net of other sociodemographic compositions. The most at-risk groups were determined to be young adults, foreign tourists, poor swimmers, and those who infrequently visited the beach. Miami Beach needs to initiate a rip current safety campaign to target these at-risk beachgoers, where interventions beyond familial and educational institutions should be introduced.  相似文献   

Comparison of polynomial chaos and Gaussian process surrogates for uncertainty quantification and correlation estimation of spatially distributed open-channel steady flows   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Pamphile?T.?RoyEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Nabil?El Mo?ayd  Sophie?Ricci  Jean-Christophe?Jouhaud  Nicole?Goutal  Matthias?De Lozzo  Mélanie?C.?Rochoux 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(6):1723-1741

Data assimilation is widely used to improve flood forecasting capability, especially through parameter inference requiring statistical information on the uncertain input parameters (upstream discharge, friction coefficient) as well as on the variability of the water level and its sensitivity with respect to the inputs. For particle filter or ensemble Kalman filter, stochastically estimating probability density function and covariance matrices from a Monte Carlo random sampling requires a large ensemble of model evaluations, limiting their use in real-time application. To tackle this issue, fast surrogate models based on polynomial chaos and Gaussian process can be used to represent the spatially distributed water level in place of solving the shallow water equations. This study investigates the use of these surrogates to estimate probability density functions and covariance matrices at a reduced computational cost and without the loss of accuracy, in the perspective of ensemble-based data assimilation. This study focuses on 1-D steady state flow simulated with MASCARET over the Garonne River (South-West France). Results show that both surrogates feature similar performance to the Monte-Carlo random sampling, but for a much smaller computational budget; a few MASCARET simulations (on the order of 10–100) are sufficient to accurately retrieve covariance matrices and probability density functions all along the river, even where the flow dynamic is more complex due to heterogeneous bathymetry. This paves the way for the design of surrogate strategies suitable for representing unsteady open-channel flows in data assimilation.  相似文献   

A noble gas data collection of lunar meteorites     

Marianna Mészáros  Beda A. Hofmann  Ingo Leya 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2018,53(5):1104-1107

We collected the published noble gas data of altogether 35 lunar meteorites. This compilation includes the stable isotopes of He, Ne, Ar, Kr, and Xe. We also give a summary of cosmogenic, trapped, and radiogenic noble gas components of lunar meteorites for which data are available in the literature.  相似文献