Multivariate nonparametric resampling scheme for generation of daily weather variables     

B. Rajagopalan  U. Lall  D. G. Tarboton  D. S. Bowles 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(1):65-93

A nonparametric resampling technique for generating daily weather variables at a site is presented. The method samples the original data with replacement while smoothing the empirical conditional distribution function. The technique can be thought of as a smoothed conditional Bootstrap and is equivalent to simulation from a kernel density estimate of the multivariate conditional probability density function. This improves on the classical Bootstrap technique by generating values that have not occurred exactly in the original sample and by alleviating the reproduction of fine spurious details in the data. Precipitation is generated from the nonparametric wet/dry spell model as described in Lall et al. [1995]. A vector of other variables (solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average dew point temperature, and average wind speed) is then simulated by conditioning on the vector of these variables on the preceding day and the precipitation amount on the day of interest. An application of the resampling scheme with 30 years of daily weather data at Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, is provided.  相似文献   

EISCAT/CRRES observations: nightside ionospheric ion outflow and oxygen-rich substorm injections     

N. G. J. Gazey  M. Lockwood  M. Grande  C. H. Perry  P. N. Smith  S. Coles  A. D. Aylward  R. J. Bunting  H. Opgenoorth  B. Wilken 《Annales Geophysicae》1997,14(10):1032-1043

We present combined observations made near midnight by the EISCAT radar, all-sky cameras and the combined released and radiation efects satellite (CRRES) shortly before and during a substorm. In particular, we study a discrete, equatorward-drifting auroral arc, seen several degrees poleward of the onset region. The arc passes through the field-aligned beam of the EISCAT radar and is seen to be associated with a considerable upflow of ionospheric plasma. During the substorm, the CRRES satellite observed two major injections, 17 min apart, the second of which was dominated by O⁺ ions. We show that the observed are was in a suitable location in both latitude and MLT to have fed O⁺ ions into the second injection and that the upward flux of ions associated with it was sufficient to explain the observed injection. We interpret these data as showing that arcs in the nightside plasma-sheet boundary layer could be the source of O⁺ ions energised by a dipolarisation of the mid- and near-Earth tail, as opposed to ions ejected from the dayside ionosphere in the cleft ion fountain.  相似文献   

A Method for Evaluation of Artificial Recharge Through Percolation Tanks Using Environmental Chloride   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

B. S. Sukhija  D. V. Reddy  M. V. Nandakumar  Rama 《Ground water》1997,35(1):161-165

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Use of Chemical and Isotopic Tracers to Characterize the Interactions Between Ground Water and Surface Water in Mantled Karst   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Brian G. Katz  Tyler B. Coplen  Thomas D. Bullen  J. Hal Davis 《Ground water》1997,35(6):1014-1028

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Temporal evolution of HF-excited plasma waves, measured at different pump frequencies by stimulated electromagnetic emission (SEE)     

E.N. Sergeev  V.L. Frolov  G.P. Komrakov  B. Thidé  T. Carozzi 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》1997,59(18):2383-2400

Experimental results concerning the growth and decay times of different spectral components of stimulated electromagnetic emission (SEE) are presented. A new method of measurement, employing a special pulsed pump scheme for the ionospheric plasma modification, has been elaborated and applied for studying HF-induced processes with high time resolution. The measurements performed show that the development and relaxation of different SEE features have an intricate pattern which depends on the emission frequency shift from the pump frequency, on the proximity of the pump frequency to the gyroharmonic frequencies, on the intensity of artificial ionospheric turbulence, and on the ionospheric conditions. The scope of this method for studies of HF plasma turbulence is discussed.  相似文献   

A short note on: Identification of the shape of simple causative sources from gravity data     

B.K. Nandi  R.K. Shaw  B.N.P. Agarwal 《Geophysical Prospecting》1997,45(3):513-520

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Global monsoons in the mid-Holocene and oceanic feedback   总被引：10，自引：3，他引：10  

Z. Liu  S. P. Harrison  J. Kutzbach  B. Otto-Bliesner 《Climate Dynamics》2004,22(2-3):157-182

The response of the six major summer monsoon systems (the North American monsoon, the northern Africa monsoon, the Asia monsoon, the northern Australasian monsoon, the South America monsoon and the southern Africa monsoon) to mid-Holocene orbital forcing has been investigated using a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (FOAM), with the focus on the distinct roles of the direct insolation forcing and oceanic feedback. The simulation result is also found to compare well with the NCAR CSM. The direct effects of the change in insolation produce an enhancement of the Northern Hemisphere monsoons and a reduction of the Southern Hemisphere monsoons. Ocean feedbacks produce a further enhancement of the northern Africa monsoon and the North American monsoon. However, ocean feedbacks appear to weaken the Asia monsoon, although the overall effect (direct insolation forcing plus ocean feedback) remains a strengthened monsoon. The impact of ocean feedbacks on the South American and southern African monsoons is relatively small, and therefore these regions, especially the South America, experienced a reduced monsoon regime compared to present. However, there is a strong ocean feedback on the northern Australian monsoon that negates the direct effects of orbital changes and results in a strengthening of austral summer monsoon precipitation in this region. A new synthesis is made for mid-Holocene paleoenvironmental records and is compared with the model simulations. Overall, model simulations produce changes in regional climates that are generally consistent with paleoenvironmental observations.  相似文献   

Estimated N2O and CO2 Emissions as Influenced by Agricultural Practices in Canada   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

B. Grant  W. N. Smith  R. Desjardins  R. Lemke  C. Li 《Climatic change》2004,65(3):315-332

The Denitrification-Decompostion (DNDC) model was used to estimate the impact of change in management practices on N₂O emissions in seven major soil regions in Canada, for the period 1970 to 2029. Conversion of cultivated land to permanent grassland would result in the greatest reduction in N₂O emissions, particularly in eastern Canada wherethe model estimated about 60% less N₂O emissions for thisconversion. About 33% less N₂O emissions were predicted for a changefrom conventional tillage to no-tillage in western Canada, however, a slight increase in N₂O emissions was predicted for eastern Canada. GreaterN₂O emissions in eastern Canada associated with the adoption of no-tillage were attributed to higher soil moisture causing denitrification, whereas the lower emissions in western Canada were attributed to less decomposition of soil organic matter in no-till versus conventional tilled soil. Elimination of summer fallow in a crop rotation resulted in a 9% decrease in N₂O emissions, with substantial emissions occurringduring the wetter fallow years when N had accumulated. Increasing N-fertilizer application rates by 50% increased average emissions by 32%,while a 50% decrease of N-fertilizer application decreased emissions by16%. In general, a small increase in N₂O emissions was predicted when N-fertilizer was applied in the fall rather than in the spring. Previous research on CO₂ emissions with the CENTURY model (Smith et al.,2001) allowed the quantification of the combined change in N₂O andCO₂ emissions in CO₂ equivalents for a wide range of managementpractices in the seven major soil regions in Canada. The management practices that have the greatest potential to reduce the combined N₂O andCO₂ emissions are conversion from conventional tillage to permanent grassland, reduced tillage, and reduction of summer fallow. The estimated net greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction when changing from cultivated land to permanent grassland ranged from 0.97 (Brown Chernozem) to 4.24 MgCO₂ equiv. ha^–1 y^–1 (BlackChernozem) for the seven soil regions examined. When changing from conventional tillage to no-tillage the net GHG emission reduction ranged from 0.33 (Brown Chernozem) to 0.80 Mg CO₂ equiv. ha^–1 y^–1 (Dark GrayLuvisol). Elimination of fallow in the crop rotation lead to an estimated net GHG emission reduction of 0.43 (Brown Chernozem) to 0.80 Mg CO₂ equiv.ha^–1 y^–1 (Dark Brown Chernozem). The addition of 50% more or 50% less N-fertilizer both resulted in slight increases in combined CO₂ and N₂O emissions. There was a tradeoff in GHG flux with greaterN₂O emissions and a comparable increase in carbon storage when 50% more N-fertilizer was added. The results from this work indicate that conversion of cultivated land to grassland, the conversion from conventional tillage to no-tillage, and the reduction of summerallow in crop rotations could substantially increase C sequestration and decrease net GHG emissions. Based on these results a simple scaling-up scenario to derive the possible impacts on Canada's Kyoto commitment has been calculated.  相似文献   

新技术,新挑战——GPS在青藏高原等地区地质研究中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

B. C. Burchfiel 《沉积与特提斯地质》2004,24(4):89-95

新技术应用到地学领域所获取的新的科学数据有助于我们加深对地质过程的理解。同时，我们解释地质过程的研究方法也受到新技术资料的挑战，从而迫使我们用新的或不同的方法来研究这些地质过程。在此．我想对某些资料进行讨论，这些都是热门的研究领域。当然．作为一个野外地质工作者，我的理解有限。工作的确尚在进行之中，其潜在的结果将促使我们通过新方法着眼于浅部地壳结构及其与深部岩石圈过程的关系。  相似文献   

Analysis of Chironomid Remains from Lake Sediments in Paleoecological Reconstruction     

Il'yashuk  E. A.  Il'yashuk  B. P. 《Water Resources》2004,31(2):203-214

The results of methodological studies of paleoecological reconstruction of environmental characteristics are considered. The studies are based on the analysis of chironomid remains from the sediments of lake ecosystems. The investigation is focused on the methodical basis of analysis and the perspectives and range of its application to long-term environmental changes of natural and anthropogenic origin. It is shown that the development of this method in future studies will require a balanced combination of neo- and paleoecological approaches.  相似文献