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131.
132.
This study demonstrates the use of spatially downscaled, monthly general circulation model (GCM) rainfall and temperature data to drive the established HyMOD hydrological model to evaluate the prospective effects of climate change on the fluvial run‐off of the River Derwent basin in the UK. The evaluation results of this monthly hydrological model using readily available, monthly GCM data are consistent with studies on nearby catchments employing high‐temporal resolution data, indicating that useful hydro‐climatic planning studies may be possible using standard datasets and modest computational resources. HyMOD was calibrated against 5 km2 gridded UK Climate Projections dataset data and then driven using monthly spatially interpolated (~5 km2) outputs from Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC‐SRES) A2a and B2a covering the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Results for both GCMs project a decrease in annual run‐off in both GCM models and scenarios with higher values in the summer/autumn months, whereas an increase in the later winter months. Both Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis show higher ranges of uncertainty during the winter season with higher values of run‐off associated with December in all three simulation periods and two scenarios. A seasonal comparison of run‐off simulations shows that both GCMs give similar results in summer and autumn, whereas disparities due to GCM uncertainties are more conspicuous in winter and spring. In this study, both the GCMs under A2a scenario have demonstrated the high possibility of time shift in monthly average peak run‐offs in the Derwent River by 2080s in comparison with the early 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
133.
Mary Gleason Scott McCreary Melissa Miller-Henson John Ugoretz Evan Fox Matt Merrifield Will McClintock Paulo Serpa Kathryn Hoffman 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2010,53(2):52-68
The planning process for California's Marine Life Protection Act in north central California represents a case study in the design of a regional component of a statewide network of marine protected areas (MPAs) for improved ecosystem protection. We describe enabling factors, such as a legislative mandate, political will, and adequate capacity and funding that fostered a successful planning process. We identify strategic principles that guided the design of a transparent public planning process that delivered regional MPA network proposals, which both met science guidelines and achieved a high level of support among stakeholders. We also describe key decision support elements (spatial data, planning tools, and scientific evaluation) that were essential for designing, evaluating, and refining alternative MPA network proposals and for informing decision-makers. 相似文献
134.
Lonny Lundsten Charles K. Paull Kyra L. Schlining Mary McGann William Ussler 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2010,57(7):918-922
Video analysis of a whale-fall discovered in the northeast Pacific Ocean, off Vancouver Island at a depth of 1288 m during ROV diving operations has identified 26 taxa of deep-sea benthic organisms inhabiting the seafloor immediately surrounding remnants of the whale skeleton. A photo-mosaic derived from high-definition video provides a quantitative visual record of the present condition of the site, the species richness, and substrate preference. Only the skull and caudal vertebrae remains of this large whale skeleton are estimated to have been approximately 16.5 m in length. Most organisms identified near the whale-fall are common benthic deep-sea fauna, typical of this water depth and seafloor composition. Much of this species richness comes from sessile suspension feeding cnidarians attached to the numerous glacial dropstones found throughout the area rather than the presence of the whale skeleton. Seep and bone specialists are rare (4 taxa) and may be, in part, a remnant population from a sulphophilic stage of whale-fall decomposition. Evidence of past colonization by Osedax sp. is visible on the remaining bones and we conclude that rapid degradation of the missing bones has occurred at this site as has been observed at whale-falls off central California in Monterey Canyon. 相似文献
135.
136.
Natural Hazards - Weather prediction is one of the challenging issues around the world. It is necessary to determine the effective use of water resources and forecasting weather-related disasters.... 相似文献
137.
Aeolian deposits form noteworthy reservoirs (for example, Norphlet Formation and Rotliegend Group) in hydrocarbon extraction and carbon capture and storage contexts, but stratigraphic architecture imparts significant heterogeneity. Bounding surfaces result from autogenic and allogenic controls and can represent important changes in dune-field dynamics. To further evaluate the impacts of facies heterogeneity and flow-inhibiting bounding surfaces on reservoir performance and reconstruct ancient erg evolution, the stratigraphic architecture of aeolian systems must continue to be studied at multiple scales. This study pairs traditional methods (for example, measured stratigraphic sections) with advanced technologies (for example, drone-derived outcrop models) to precisely resolve the metre to kilometre-scale three-dimensional stratigraphic architecture of wet aeolian Middle Jurassic Entrada Sandstone outcrops located at Rone Bailey Mesa near Moab, Utah, USA. Five facies are identified, primarily based on sedimentary fabrics, and are grouped into three associations named dune, sabkha and sand sheet. Statistical analyses of gamma-ray spectrometer and automated mineralogy data indicate a distinct mineralogical difference between dune (quartz-rich) and sabkha (more feldspathic) packages, suggesting that gamma-ray logs may be used to better predict facies distribution in the subsurface. Seven modelled super bounding surfaces are planar to undulatory, with no perceived spatial trends. Five modelled interdune migration surfaces are undulatory but exhibit an average 0.09° angle of climb roughly parallel to the palaeocurrent direction. Two modelled superposition surfaces are linear to sinuous in plan-view. Laterally discontinuous sabkha packages observed are interpreted to be remnants of closed, damp, interdune flats located between ca 8.5 to 17.0 m tall, sinuous, transverse bedforms or patches of such bedforms. Based on stratigraphic architecture interpretations, the Entrada Sandstone preserves signals of allogenic forcing and localized autogenic bedform cannibalization of the substrate. The findings of this study, some of which are not commonly recognized in wet aeolian facies models, enhance the understanding of erg evolution and can parameterize static models of aeolian reservoirs. 相似文献
138.
139.
Uncertainty regarding spatial variations of model parameters often results in the simplifying assumption that parameters are spatially uniform. However, spatial variability may be important in resource assessment and model calibration. In this paper, a methodology is presented for estimating a critical basin size, above which base flows appear to be relatively less sensitive to the spatial distribution of recharge and hydraulic conductivity, and below which base flows are relatively more sensitive to this spatial variability. Application of the method is illustrated for a watershed that exhibits distinct infiltration patterns and hydrostratigraphic layering. A ground water flow model (MODFLOW) and a parameter estimation code (UCODE) were used to evaluate the influence of recharge zonation and hydrostratigraphic layering on base flow distribution. Optimization after removing spatial recharge variability from the calibrated model altered base flow simulations up to 53% in watersheds smaller than 40 km(2). Merging six hydrostratigraphic units into one unit with average properties increased base flow residuals up to 83% in basins smaller than 50 km(2). Base flow residuals changed <5% in watersheds larger than 40 and 50 km(2) when recharge and hydrostratigraphy were simplified, respectively; thus, the critical basin size for the example area is approximately 40 to 50 km(2). Once identified for an area, a critical basin size could be used to guide the scale of future investigations. By ensuring that parameter discretization needed to capture base flow distribution is commensurate with the scope of the investigation, uncertainty caused by overextending uniform parameterization or by estimating extra parameter values is reduced. 相似文献
140.
Bruce P. Finney Nancy H. Bigelow Valerie A. Barber Mary E. Edwards 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2012,47(1):43-54
We compared cladoceran assemblages in modern and pre-industrial sediments from cores taken in 48 softwater lakes located in
four main regions of Nova Scotia (Canada) to evaluate the impacts of acidification and other recent environmental stressors.
Lakes in Kejimkujik National Park showed significant increases in Holopedium relative abundances and significant decreases in Alona and other chydorids since pre-industrial times, which appear to be related to declines in pH and calcium (Ca) concentrations
caused by acidic deposition. Lakes in Bridgewater also showed a significant decrease in Alona, as well as a significant increase in macrothricid (Acantholeberis and Ophryoxus) taxa that cannot be explained by declines in pH, although declines in [Ca] have been recorded. Lakes in Yarmouth did not
show any significant regional changes in major cladoceran species groups. Still, pre-industrial assemblages in these lakes
significantly differed from modern assemblages, with assemblage changes being lake-specific and likely related to interactions
between local and regional stressors acting on individual lakes. Finally, lakes in Cape Breton Highlands National Park, located
on the taiga plateau, have received historically lower levels of sulphate deposition relative to other regions in the province,
and recorded a significant decrease in Alona similar to Bridgewater lakes. The province-wide decrease in Alona across different acid deposition rates suggests that limnological changes related to climate warming may be responsible.
Overall, this study shows that acidification history is an important predictor of cladoceran assemblage changes since pre-industrial
times in Nova Scotia lakes, although multiple stressors result in complex Cladocera responses in some regions. 相似文献