Modern influences on chironomid distribution in western Ireland: potential for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction     

Aaron P. Potito  Craig A. Woodward  Michelle McKeown  David W. Beilman 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2014,52(4):385-404

Ireland provides a unique setting for the study of past climates, as its climate is dominated by westerly airflow from the North Atlantic and readily responsive to changes in North Atlantic circulation patterns. Although there has been substantial research on Ireland’s past environments, quantitative palaeolimnological research, especially chironomid-based research, has been lacking. In order to further develop chironomid-based palaeolimnological investigations, a calibration set was constructed to determine the dominant environmental controls on modern chironomids in western Ireland. Chironomid subfossils were collected from surface sediments of 50 lakes. The lakes were characterised with 36 environmental variables, including physical attributes, lake water characteristics, lake sediment characteristics and land cover within each catchment. In this exploratory study, no specific environmental variable was targeted and lakes were chosen to span gradients of latitude, elevation, depth and trophic status. Redundancy analysis showed that six environmental variables—mean July air temperature, lake depth, dissolved organic carbon, and percentage catchment land cover of agriculture, peat bog and scrubland—captured a large and statistically significant portion of the variance in the chironomid data. July temperature and agricultural land cover were the most dominant environmental variables, with July temperature proving the most suitable for inference model development. A classical weighted-averaging model was developed to estimate July air temperature, with a coefficient of determination (r _jack ² ) of 0.60 and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 0.57 °C. Results suggest that summer temperature is the dominant influence on chironomid distribution across a wide variety of lake types, and the relatively small RMSEP should allow for more accurate reconstructions of Ireland’s relatively subdued Holocene temperature fluctuations.  相似文献   

Land use dynamics in Brazilian La Plata Basin and anthropogenic climate change     

Ana Carolina F. de Vasconcelos  Sandro L. Schlindwein  Marcos A. Lana  Alfredo C. Fantini  Michelle Bonatti  Luiz R. D’Agostini  Sergio R. Martins 《Climatic change》2014,127(1):73-81

The La Plata Basin (LPB) is one of the most important regions for agriculture and livestock production in South America, playing a central role in the world food production and food security. Within its borders is also located the whole Brazilian Pantanal region. Identifying the most important land use sectors in LPB as well as the changes observed in the past years is fundamental to recognize which areas of the basin might be more vulnerable to climate change in order to design adaptation strategies. A general characterization of land use and livestock production of Brazilian LPB was done by using the System of Automatic Retrieving (SIDRA) of Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) platform as the major source of data. It was observed expressive increases in land areas used for temporary crops, such as soybean, sugarcane, and maize, as well as increases in poultry and swine production. These important changes in agricultural land use and livestock production are currently associated to non-climatic drivers, but this dynamic might be strongly affected by the consequences of climate change and variability, with negative socio-economic impacts for the whole region.  相似文献   

Modelling the effects of land‐use change on water and salt delivery from a catchment affected by dryland salinity in south‐east Australia     

Jai Vaze  Paul Barnett  Geoffrey Beale  Warrick Dawes  Ray Evans  Narendra Kumar Tuteja  Brian Murphy  Guy Geeves  Michelle Miller 《水文研究》2004,18(9):1613-1637

A comprehensive framework for the assessment of water and salt balance for large catchments affected by dryland salinity is applied to the Boorowa River catchment (1550 km²), located in south‐eastern Australia. The framework comprised two models, each focusing on a different aspect and operating on a different scale. A quasi‐physical semi‐distributed model CATSALT was used to estimate runoff and salt fluxes from different source areas within the catchment. The effects of land use, climate, topography, soils and geology are included. A groundwater model FLOWTUBE was used to estimate the long‐term effects of land‐use change on groundwater discharge. Unlike conventional salinity studies that focus on groundwater alone, this study makes use of a new approach to explore surface and groundwater interactions with salt stores and the stream. Land‐use change scenarios based on increased perennial pasture and tree‐cover content of the vegetation, aimed at high leakage and saline discharge areas, are investigated. Likely downstream impacts of the reduction in flow and salt export are estimated. The water balance model was able to simulate both the daily observed stream flow and salt load at the catchment outlet for high and low flow conditions satisfactorily. Mean leakage rate of about 23·2 mm year^?1 under current land use for the Boorowa catchment was estimated. The corresponding mean runoff and salt export from the catchment were 89 382 ML year^?1 and 38 938 t year^?1, respectively. Investigation of various land‐use change scenarios indicates that changing annual pastures and cropping areas to perennial pastures is not likely to result in substantial improvement of water quality in the Boorowa River. A land‐use change of about 20% tree‐cover, specifically targeting high recharge and the saline discharge areas, would be needed to decrease stream salinity by 150 µS cm^?1 from its current level. Stream salinity reductions of about 20 µS cm^?1 in the main Lachlan River downstream of the confluence of the Boorowa River is predicted. The FLOWTUBE modelling within the Boorowa River catchment indicated that discharge areas under increased recharge conditions could re‐equilibrate in around 20 years for the catchment, and around 15 years for individual hillslopes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Spitzer imaging of i'-drop galaxies: old stars at z≈ 6     

Laurence P. Eyles  rew J. Bunker  Elizabeth R. Stanway  Mark Lacy  Richard S. Ellis  Michelle Doherty 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,364(2):443-454

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Michelle Chapront-Touze 《Journal of Geodesy》1972,46(1):47-62

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Stratigraphic evidence for anthropogenically induced coastal environmental change from Oaxaca, Mexico     

Michelle Goman  Arthur Joyce  Raymond Mueller 《Quaternary Research》2005,63(3):1-260

Previous interdisciplinary paleoenvironmental and archaeological research along the Río Verde Valley of Oaxaca, Mexico, showed that Holocene erosion in the highland valleys of the upper drainage basin triggered geomorphic changes in the river's coastal floodplain. This article uses stratigraphic data from sediment cores extracted from Laguna Pastoría, an estuary in the lower Río Verde Valley, to examine changes in coastal geomorphology potentially triggered by highland erosion. Coastal lagoon sediments contain a stratigraphically and chronologically distinct record of major hurricane strikes during late Holocene times. Three distinct storm facies are identified from sediment cores obtained from Laguna Pastoría, which indicate that profound coastal environmental changes occurred within the region and are correlated with increased sediment supplied from highland erosion. The Chione/Laevicardium facies was deposited in an open bay while the Mytella/barnacle facies and sand facies were deposited in an enclosed lagoon following bay barrier formation. We argue that highland erosion triggered major geomorphic changes in the lowlands including bay barrier formation by 2500 cal yr B.P. These environmental changes may have had significant effects on human populations in the region. The lagoon stratigraphy further indicates an increase in mid–late Holocene hurricane activity, possibly caused by increased El Niño frequencies.  相似文献   

Variation in biogeochemical parameters across intertidal seagrass meadows in the central Great Barrier Reef region     

Mellors J  Waycott M  Marsh H 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,51(1-4):335-342

This survey provides baseline information on sediment characteristics, porewater, adsorbed and plant tissue nutrients from intertidal coastal seagrass meadows in the central region of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area. Data collected from 11 locations, representative of intertidal coastal seagrass beds across the region, indicated that the chemical environment was typical of other tropical intertidal areas. Results using two different extraction methods highlight the need for caution when choosing an adsorbed phosphate extraction technique, as sediment type affects the analytical outcome. Comparison with published values indicates that the range of nutrient parameters measured is equivalent to those measured across tropical systems globally. However, the nutrient values in seagrass leaves and their molar ratios for Halophila ovalis and Halodule uninervis were much higher than the values from the literature from this and other regions, obtained using the same techniques, suggesting that these species act as nutrient sponges, in contrast with Zostera capricorni. The limited historical data from this region suggest that the nitrogen and phosphorus content of seagrass leaves has increased since the 1970s concomitant with changing land use practice.  相似文献   

Increasing prevalence of extreme summer temperatures in the U.S.     

P. B. Duffy  C. Tebaldi 《Climatic change》2012,111(2):487-495

Human-caused climate change can affect weather and climate extremes, as well as mean climate properties. Analysis of observations and climate model results shows that previously rare (5th percentile) summertime average temperatures are presently occurring with greatly increased frequency in some regions of the 48 contiguous United States. Broad agreement between observations and a mean of results based upon 16 global climate models suggests that this result is more consistent with the consequences of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations than with the effects of natural climate variability. This conclusion is further supported by a statistical analysis based on resampling of observations and model output. The same climate models project that the prevalence of previously extreme summer temperatures will continue to increase, occurring in well over 50% of summers by mid-century.  相似文献   

A multi-model ensemble of downscaled spatial climate change scenarios for the Dommel catchment, Western Europe     

Michelle T. H. van Vliet  Stephen Blenkinsop  Aidan Burton  Colin Harpham  Hans Peter Broers  Hayley J. Fowler 《Climatic change》2012,111(2):249-277

Regional or local scale hydrological impact studies require high resolution climate change scenarios which should incorporate some assessment of uncertainties in future climate projections. This paper describes a method used to produce a multi-model ensemble of multivariate weather simulations including spatial–temporal rainfall scenarios and single-site temperature and potential evapotranspiration scenarios for hydrological impact assessment in the Dommel catchment (1,350 km²) in The Netherlands and Belgium. A multi-site stochastic rainfall model combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator have been used for the first time with the change factor approach to downscale projections of change derived from eight Regional Climate Model (RCM) experiments for the SRES A2 emission scenario for the period 2071–2100. For winter, all downscaled scenarios show an increase in mean daily precipitation (catchment average change of +9% to +40%) and typically an increase in the proportion of wet days, while for summer a decrease in mean daily precipitation (−16% to −57%) and proportion of wet days is projected. The range of projected mean temperature is 7.7°C to 9.1°C for winter and 19.9°C to 23.3°C for summer, relative to means for the control period (1961–1990) of 3.8°C and 16.8°C, respectively. Mean annual potential evapotranspiration is projected to increase by between +17% and +36%. The magnitude and seasonal distribution of changes in the downscaled climate change projections are strongly influenced by the General Circulation Model (GCM) providing boundary conditions for the RCM experiments. Therefore, a multi-model ensemble of climate change scenarios based on different RCMs and GCMs provides more robust estimates of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration for hydrological impact assessments, at both regional and local scale.  相似文献   

The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme US precipitation events in a global atmosphere model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michael F. Wehner  Richard L. Smith  G. Bala  Phillip Duffy 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(2-3):241-247

We investigate the ability of a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to reproduce observed 20 year return values of the annual maximum daily precipitation totals over the continental United States as a function of horizontal resolution. We find that at the high resolutions enabled by contemporary supercomputers, the AGCM can produce values of comparable magnitude to high quality observations. However, at the resolutions typical of the coupled general circulation models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the precipitation return values are severely underestimated.  相似文献