排序方式： 共有102条查询结果，搜索用时 31 毫秒
31.
Imtiyaz A. Parvez Andrea Magrin Franco Vaccari Ashish Ramees R. Mir Antonella Peresan Giuliano Francesco Panza 《Journal of Seismology》2017,21(6):1559-1575
Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic wave generation and propagation processes allow for reliable numerical and analytical models of waveform generation and propagation. From the simulation of ground motion, it is easy to extract the desired earthquake hazard parameters. Accordingly, a scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed, namely the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA), which allows for a wide range of possible seismic sources to be used in the definition of reliable scenarios by means of realistic waveforms modelling. Such reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected earthquake ground motion is essential to improve building codes, particularly for the protection of critical infrastructures and for land use planning. Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489–508, 2003) published the first ever neo-deterministic seismic hazard map of India by computing synthetic seismograms with input data set consisting of structural models, seismogenic zones, focal mechanisms and earthquake catalogues. As described in Panza et al. (Adv Geophys 53:93–165, 2012), the NDSHA methodology evolved with respect to the original formulation used by Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489–508, 2003): the computer codes were improved to better fit the need of producing realistic ground shaking maps and ground shaking scenarios, at different scale levels, exploiting the most significant pertinent progresses in data acquisition and modelling. Accordingly, the present study supplies a revised NDSHA map for India. The seismic hazard, expressed in terms of maximum displacement (Dmax), maximum velocity (Vmax) and design ground acceleration (DGA), has been extracted from the synthetic signals and mapped on a regular grid over the studied territory. 相似文献
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Investigation on landslide phenomenon is necessary for understanding and delineating the landslide prone and safer places for different land use practices. On this basis, a new model known as genetic algorithm for the rule set production was applied in order to assess its efficacy to obtain a better result and a more precise landslide susceptibility map in Klijanerestagh area of Iran. This study considered twelve landslide conditioning factors (LCF) like altitude, slope, aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, topographic wetness index (TWI), distance from rivers, faults, and roads, land use/cover, and lithology. For modeling purpose, the Genetic Algorithm for the Rule Set Production (GARP) algorithm was applied in order to produce the landslide susceptibility map. Finally, to evaluate the efficacy of the GARP model, receiver operating characteristics curve as well as the Kappa index were employed. Based on these indices, the GARP model predicted the probability of future landslide incidences with the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC-ROC) values of 0.932, and 0.907 for training and validating datasets, respectively. In addition, Kappa values for the training and validating datasets were computed as 0.775, and 0.716, respectively. Thus, it can be concluded that the GARP algorithm can be a new but effective method for generating landslide susceptibility maps (LSMs). Furthermore, higher contribution of the lithology, distance from roads, and distance from faults was observed, while lower contribution was attributed to soil, profile curvature, and TWI factors. The introduced methodology in this paper can be suggested for other areas with similar topographical and hydrogeological characteristics for land use planning and reducing the landslide damages. 相似文献
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Naser M. Asghari Mir Abbas Jalali 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,373(1):337-348
We present a perturbation theory for studying the instabilities of non-axisymmetric gaseous discs. We perturb the dynamical equations of self-gravitating fluids in the vicinity of a non-axisymmetric equilibrium, and expand the perturbed physical quantities in terms of a complete basis set and a small non-axisymmetry parameter ε. We then derive a linear eigenvalue problem in matrix form, and determine the pattern speed, growth rate and mode shapes of the first three unstable modes. In non-axisymmetric discs, the amplitude and the phase angle of travelling waves are functions of both the radius R and the azimuthal angle φ. This is due to the interaction of different wave components in the response spectrum. We demonstrate that wave interaction in unstable discs, with small initial asymmetries, can develop dense clumps during the phase of exponential growth. Local clumps, which occur on the major spiral arms, can constitute seeds of gas giant planets in accretion discs. 相似文献
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Binh Thai Pham Abolfazl Jaafari Tran Van Phong Hoang Phan Hai Yen Tran Thi Tuyen Vu Van Luong Huu Duy Nguyen Hiep Van Le Loke Kok Foong 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(3):101105
Improving the accuracy of flood prediction and mapping is crucial for reducing damage resulting from flood events. In this study, we proposed and validated three ensemble models based on the Best First Decision Tree (BFT) and the Bagging (Bagging-BFT), Decorate (Bagging-BFT), and Random Subspace (RSS-BFT) ensemble learning techniques for an improved prediction of flood susceptibility in a spatially-explicit manner. A total number of 126 historical flood events from the Nghe An Province (Vietnam) were connected to a set of 10 flood influencing factors (slope, elevation, aspect, curvature, river density, distance from rivers, flow direction, geology, soil, and land use) for generating the training and validation datasets. The models were validated via several performance metrics that demonstrated the capability of all three ensemble models in elucidating the underlying pattern of flood occurrences within the research area and predicting the probability of future flood events. Based on the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC), the ensemble Decorate-BFT model that achieved an AUC value of 0.989 was identified as the superior model over the RSS-BFT (AUC = 0.982) and Bagging-BFT (AUC = 0.967) models. A comparison between the performance of the models and the models previously reported in the literature confirmed that our ensemble models provided a reliable estimate of flood susceptibilities and their resulting susceptibility maps are trustful for flood early warning systems as well as development of mitigation plans. 相似文献
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Binh Thai Pham Indra Prakash Abolfazl Jaafari Dieu Tien Bui 《Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing》2018,46(9):1457-1470
In this study, the spatial prediction of rainfall-induced landslides at the Pauri Gahwal area, Uttarakhand, India has been done using Aggregating One-Dependence Estimators (AODE) classifier which has not been applied earlier for landslide problems. Historical landslide locations have been collated with a set of influencing factors for landslide spatial analysis. The performance of the AODE model has been assessed using statistical analyzing methods and receiver operating characteristic curve technique. The predictive capability of the AODE model has also been compared with other popular landslide models namely Support Vector Machines (SVM), Radial Basis Function Neural Network (ANN-RBF), Logistic Regression (LR), and Naïve Bayes (NB). The result of analysis illustrates that the AODE model has highest predictability, followed by the SVM model, the ANN-RBF model, the LR model, and the NB model, respectively. Thus AODE is a promising method for the development of better landslide susceptibility map for proper landslide hazard management. 相似文献
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Abolfazl Jaafari 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(2):42
The present study investigates a potential application of different resolution topographic data obtained from airborne LiDAR and an integrated ensemble weight-of-evidence and analytic hierarchy process (WoE–AHP) model to spatially predict slope failures. Previously failed slopes of the Pellizzano (Italy) were remotely mapped and divided into two subsets for training and testing purposes. 1, 2, 5, 10, 15, and 20 m topographic data were processed to extract nine terrain attributes identified as conditioning factors for landslides: slope degree, aspect, altitude, plan curvature, profile curvature, stream power index, topographic wetness index, sediment transport index, and topographic roughness index. Landslide (slope failure) susceptibility maps were produced using a single WoE (Model 1), an ensemble WoE–AHP model that used all conditioning factors (Model 2), and an ensemble WoE–AHP model that only used highly nominated conditioning factors (Model 3). The validation results proved the efficiency of high-resolution (≤ 5 m) topographic data and the ensemble model, particularly when all factors were used in the modeling process (Model 2). The average success rates and prediction rates for Model 2 that used ≤ 5 m resolution datasets were 84.26 and 82.78%, respectively. The finding presented in this paper can aid in planning more efficient LiDAR surveys and the handling of large datasets, and in gaining a better understanding of the nature of the predictive models. 相似文献
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Parkachik Glacier is located in the Suru sub-basin of the Upper Indus River, Zanskar Himalaya. The Glacier has been analysed using Corona KH-4B (1971), Landsat-TM (1999), field survey (2015), Google EarthTM (2015) and ASTER GDEM (2015) for frontal recession and area changes. Overall, from 1971 to 2015, the Glacier has retreated by 127 ± 0.09 m i.e. (0.75 ± 0.07%) at a rate of 2.9 ± 0.004 ma?1 with a simultaneous decrease in area from 49.5 to 48.8 km2 i.e. 740 ± 0.7 m2 (1.5 ± 0.09%) at a rate of 74 ± 0.7 m2a?1. However, during recent decade (1999–2015), the rate of glacier recession of 3.9 ± 0.004 ma?1 with a corresponding area loss of 500 ± 0.74m2 (1 ± 0.1%) was higher than the retreat rate of 2.3 ± 0.001 ma?1 and an area loss of 240 ± 0.02m2 (0.48 ± 0.08%) during 1971–1999. In the field, the evidences of glacier recession are present in the form of separated dead ice blocks from the main Glacier, recessional dumps/moraines, active ice calving activity and a small proglacial pond/lake at the terminus/snout of the Glacier. However, the recession over the studied period has been very slow and is controlled by its topographic configuration, particularly the large altitudinal range (6030–3620 m), almost northerly aspect and steep slope (average ~ 30°). 相似文献
38.
Ahmad Mir Ishfaq J. N. Pattan V. M. Matta V. K. Banakar 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2013,81(5):647-654
A 4.1 m long sediment core from the Eastern Arabian Sea (EAS) is studied using multiple geochemical proxies to understand the variation of productivity and terrigenous matter supply during the past 100 ka. The temporal variation in element concentration and fluxes of CaCO3, organic carbon (Corg) and Barium excess (Baexc), together, in general indicate a higher productivity during the cold climate and highest during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in particular. This cold climate-increased productivity coupling may be attributed to the shoaling of nutricline due to enhanced convective mixing resulting from the intensified winter monsoon. Increased linear sedimentation rates and fluxes of Al, Fe, Mg, Ti, Cr, Cu, Zn, and V during the cold period also suggest increased input of terrigenous matter supporting intensified winter winds. However, the presence of large abundance of structurally unsupported elemental content (e.g.: Mg-86%, Fe-82% and Al-53%) indicate increased input of terrigenous material which was probably enhanced due to intense winter monsoon. 相似文献
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