Landslide inventory and susceptibility modelling using geospatial tools,in Hunza-Nagar valley,northern Pakistan     

Alam Sher Bacha  Muhammad Shafique  Harald van der Werff 《山地科学学报》2018,15(6):1354-1370

A comprehensive landslide inventory and susceptibility maps are prerequisite for developing and implementing landslide mitigation strategies. Landslide susceptibility maps for the landslides prone regions in northern Pakistan are rarely available. The Hunza-Nagar valley in northern Pakistan is known for its frequent and devastating landslides. In this paper, we have developed a landslide inventory map for Hunza-Nagar valley by using the visual interpretation of the SPOT-5 satellite imagery and mapped a total of 172 landslides. The landslide inventory was subsequently divided into modelling and validation data sets. For the development of landslide susceptibility map seven discrete landslide causative factors were correlated with the landslide inventory map using weight of evidence and frequency ratio statistical models. Four different models of conditional independence were used for the selection of landslide causative factors. The produced landslides susceptibility maps were validated by the success rate and area under curves criteria. The prediction power of the models was also validated with the prediction rate curve. The validation results shows that the success rate curves of the weight of evidence and the frequency models are 82% and 79%, respectively. The prediction accuracy results obtained from this study are 84% for weight of evidence model and 80% for the frequency ratio model. Finally, the landslide susceptibility index maps were classified into five different varying susceptibility zones. The validation and prediction result indicates that the weight of evidence and frequency ratio model are reliable to produce an accurate landslide susceptibility map, which may be helpful for landslides management strategies.  相似文献   

Petrography,geochemistry and provenance of the sediments of the Early Cretaceous Yanguoxia Formation,Lanzhou-Minhe Basin,Northwest China     

Ding-ding Du  Muhammad Saleem Mughal  Cheng-jun Zhang 《山地科学学报》2018,15(9):2068-2088

Lanzhou-Minhe Basin is situated on the middle Qilian orogenic belt. Yanguoxia Formation contains abundance of maroon siltstones, mudstones and red sandstones of the lake facies. These sedimentary rocks recorded the process of the tectonic uplift of Qilian Mountains during the Early Cretaceous. We discovered plentiful dinosaur footprints, worm burrows, bird footprints, worm tracks-trails, ripple marks and cross lamination in the Yanguoxia site. Integrated petrographic studies classified sandstones of Yanguoxia Formation as feldspathic litharenite. All plots in the QFL (Q or Qt, total quartz; F, feldspar; L, lithic grains) and QmFLt (Qm, monocrystalline quartz; Lt, lithic grains plus polycrystalline quartz) diagrams fall in the recycled orogen provenance field and quartzose recycled field, respectively, implying the source occurred the tectonic activity. Furthermore, geochemical study indicates that the Yanguoxia standstone was formed in an unstable continental setting due to the northwards movement of Indian Plate triggered the collision between the Qilian fold belt and the Qinling fold belt. These sediments were derived from a mixed source and then deposited in the Lanzhou-Minhe Basin. Most of the felsic components were derived from the granitoid rocks of the Qilian Mountains due to the rapid and intense uplift during the Early Cretaceous while the mafic components were contributed by the basic and ultrabasic rocks of the rapidly rising ophiolite in the Qilian Mountain area. Bivariant log-log plot of Qp/(F+L) (Qp, polycrystalline quartz) against Q/(F+L) shows that Yanguoxia Formation was deposited in the semi-humid and semi-arid. Moreover, the pollen also exhibits that the environmental condition during the deposition of Yanguoxia Formation was warm and wet, which affirm such environment was benefit to dinosaur survival. Geochemical study also infers that the Yanguoxia Formation was deposited under the oxidizing condition in a shallow marine environment. The minerals identified from the X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis of shale and siltstone samples are 4.74%-33.53% clays, 23.45%-4l.70% carbonates and 33.99%-71.81% quartz, respectively, which infer that depositional conditions remained uniform during the formation of shales or siltstones of Yanguoxia Formation.  相似文献   

Spatial modeling of Dengue prevalence and kriging prediction of Dengue outbreak in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Pakistan) using presence only data     

Ahmad  Hammad  Ali  Asad  Fatima  Syeda Hira  Zaidi  Farrah  Khisroon  Muhammad  Rasheed  Syed Basit  Ullah  Ihsan  Ullah  Saleem  Shakir  Muhammad 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2020,34(7):1023-1036

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - During the span of August–October, 2017 a major outbreak of Dengue fever happened in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. Cases...  相似文献   

Investigating effect of climate change on drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought using multi-model ensemble projections   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jehanzaib  Muhammad  Sattar  Muhammad Nouman  Lee  Joo-Heon  Kim  Tae-Woong 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2020,34(1):7-21

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Climate change is a main driving force that affects the hydrological cycle, leading to an increase in natural hazards. Among these natural...  相似文献   

Characteristics and Health Risk Assessment of Potentially Toxic Metals in Urban Topsoil in Shenyang City,Northeast China     

Hui Wang  Yueming Zhao  Muhammad Adeel  Chunyue Liu  Yinggang Wang  Qing Luo  Hao Wu  Lina Sun 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2020,48(1)

Soil samples are collected from 74 sites in Shenyang city, northeast China, and the concentrations, spatial distribution, enrichment factors (EF), and potential ecological and human health risk (E_r) of potentially toxic metals (Sr, Zn, Cr, Pb, Cu, Ni, and As) are investigated. The mean concentrations of potentially toxic metals in topsoil follow the order Sr > Zn > Cr > Pb > Cu > Ni > As. Compared with 2011, the contamination magnitude has improved in 2017, but the pollution status still exists, especially for As and Cr. EF and the mean E_r of potentially toxic metals decrease following the order As > Pb > Cu > Ni > Zn > Cr > Sr and As > Cu > Zn > Pb > Sr > Ni > Cr, suggesting that the potentially toxic metals in the topsoil of Shenyang city mainly come from natural sources, and the potential ecological risk for potentially toxic metals is low. There are potentially non‐carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks, but they are not considered significant. For non‐carcinogenic health risks, oral ingestion is the main exposure pathway, and Cr and Pb are the major pollutants. Finally, As is found to be the main carcinogenic contamination metal.  相似文献   

Disintegration of uncertainties associated with real-time multi-satellite precipitation products in diverse topographic and climatic area in Pakistan     

Muhammad MASOOD  Ghulam NABI  Muhammad BABUR  Aftab Hussain AZHAR  Muhammad KALEEM ULLAH 《山地科学学报》2021,(3):716-734

Satellite-based Precipitation Estimates(SPEs)have gained importance due to enhanced spatial and temporal resolution,particularly in Indus basin,where raingauge network has fewer observation stations and drainage area is laying in many countries.Formulation of SPEs is based on indirect mechanism,therefore,assessment and correction of associated uncertainties is required.In the present study,disintegration of uncertainties associated with four prominent real time SPEs,IMERG,TMPA,CMORPH and PERSIANN has been conducted at grid level,regional scale,and summarized in terms of regions as well as whole study area basis.The bias has been disintegrated into hit,missed,false biases,and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)into systematic and random errors.A comparison among gauge-and satellite-based precipitation estimates at annual scale,showed promising result,encouraging use of real time SPEs in the study area.On grid basis,at daily scale,from box plots,the median values of total bias(-0.5 to 0.5 mm)of the used SPEs were also encouraging although some under/over estimations were noted in terms of hit bias(-0.15 to 0.05 mm/day).Relatively higher values of missed(0.3 to 0.5 mm/day)and false(0.5 to 0.7 mm/day)biases were observed.The detected average daily RMSE,systematic errors,and random errors were also comparatively higher.Regional-scale spatial distribution of uncertainties revealed lower values of uncertainties in plain areas,depicting the better performance of satellite-based products in these areas.However,in areas of high altitude(>4000 m),due to complex topography and climatic conditions(orographic precipitation and glaciated peaks)higher values of biases and errors were observed.Topographic barriers and point scale gauge data could also be a cause of poor performance of SPEs in these areas,where precipitation is more on ridges and less in valleys where gauge stations are usually located.Precipitation system’s size and intensity can also be a reason of higher biases,because Microwave Imager underestimate precipitation in small systems(<200 km²)and overestimate in large systems(>2000 km²).At present,use of bias correction techniques at daily time scale is compulsory to utilize real time SPEs in estimation of floods in the study area.Inter comparison of satellite products indicated that IMERG gave better results than the others with the lowest values of systematic errors,missed and false biases.  相似文献   

Substructure design optimization and nonlinear responses control analysis of the mega-sub controlled structural system(MSCSS) under earthquake action     

Mustapha Abdulhadi  Zhang Xun'an  Buqiao Fan  Muhammad Moman 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2021,20(3):684-701

The newly proposed mega sub-controlled structure system(MSCSS) and related studies have drawn the attention of civil engineers for practice in improving the performance and enhancing the structural effectiveness of mega frame structures. However, there is still a need for improvement to its basic structural arrangement. In this project, an advanced, reasonable arrangement of mega sub-controlled structure models, composed of three mega stories with different numbers and arrangements of substructures, are designed to investigate the control performance of the models and obtain the optimal model configuration(model with minimum acceleration and displacement responses) under strong earthquake excitation. In addition, the dynamic parameters that affect the performance effectiveness of the optimal model of MSCSS are studied and discussed. The area of the relative stiffness ratio RD, with different mass ratio MR, within which the acceleration and displacement of the optimal model of MSCSS reaches its optimum(minimum) value is considered as an optimum region. It serves as a useful tool in practical engineering design. The study demonstrates that the proposed MSCSS configuration can efficiently control the displacement and acceleration of high rise buildings. In addition, some analytical guidelines are provided for selecting the control parameters of the structure.  相似文献   

Modeling Local Tidal Constituents Using TOPEX/POSEIDON SSH for the Malaysian Marine Region     

Muhammad Nur J. P. Vella  Sahrum Ses  Majid Kadir  Koji Matsumoto 《Marine Geodesy》2001,24(2):99-106

A new Local Ocean Tide Model, has been produced for the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Malaysia, which incorporates some of the latest TOPEX/POSEIDON data for the years 1992 to 1998. Local tide gauge data are used as a comparison, along with another leading Global Ocean Tide Model, Ori96. The leading diurnal and semidiurnal constituents M₂, S₂, N₂, K₁, O₁, P₁ and Q₁ are reproduced using TOPEX/POSEIDON Sea Surface Heights (SSH) in a response analysis type least squares derivation following Munk and Cartwright (1966).  相似文献   

Population pressure, agricultural intensification and changes in rural systems in Bangladesh   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Abu Muhammad Shajaat Ali 《Geoforum》2007,38(4):720-738

Sustainable agricultural growth is the key to rural system changes that include changes in rural bio-physical environment, economic infrastructure and social conditions. The present study has examined the temporal changes in 18 selected indicators of rural systems in Bangladesh during the period 1975-2000, and explored the influences of demographic, market forces, environmental, institutional and technological factors inducing and mediating such changes. An analysis of 64 district level published census data showed significant increase in agricultural intensity, cropping patterns, land productivity and farm income; decline in labor and technological productivities; and major improvement in rural housing, economic and social conditions during this period. Spatially, major agricultural growth and rural development were observed in districts with high population density, less constrained environments, and better access to markets, irrigation canals, and capital loans.  相似文献   

Exploring socio-hydrological determinants of crop yield in under-performing irrigation schemes: pathways for sustainable intensification     

Muhammad Khalifa  Nadir Ahmed Elagib  Bashir Mohammed Ahmed  Lars Ribbe  Karl Schneider 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z3):153-168

ABSTRACT

Understanding the human–water–food–climate nexus is central to achieving sustainable intensification (SI) in agriculture. This research uses a socio-hydrological approach to understand the underpinning for implementing SI in the Gezira Irrigation Scheme, Sudan, by integrating vegetation indices derived from remote sensing, ancillary, gridded soil and precipitation data, supplemented by interviews with 393 farmers. The productivity gap was estimated as the difference between the potential and actual productivities. Based upon data on farmers’ socio-economic status and field practices, a regression tree model was built to determine the factors that control the sorghum yield. The model revealed that the financial status of farmers and access to water are the most influential factors on sorghum yield. A conceptual framework that elucidates SI and its bi-directional feedback to the environment, society and the economy is proposed. Implementing SI in the scheme has implications on water and food security in Sudan and beyond its borders.  相似文献